Global financial system implosion begins

[A Dashing Blade]

. . . Any of my post you disagree with? . . .

This from Jan . . .

I'm calling it 5m unemployed and 10% rates on a 3-5 year view.

And from Dec

Govt Policies<==========================================>Reality

conspiracy alert for the future, the Govt's gonna inflate all consumer debt away. You heard it here first.

hmmmmm, did I really post this last July . . .

Put your pension money into the longest dated furthest out-of-the-money oil puts you can find imo (yes, I know it contradicts the "depreciating asset argument but . . . )
. . .

 

[slaar]

It's the unpredictability of the response to the monetary injections that's as paralysing as anything else. Nobody has the faintest idea whether we're going to have stag-deflation (1990s Japan) or hyperinflation (early 1930s Germany), or anything in between.

 

[Fruitloop]

The former first, followed by the latter.

 

[Jessiedog]

We don't know what to do.

Jolly good.


Carry on.





Carrots are good too, peeps.





Woof

 

[frogwoman]

Yep it's long been speculated that Web 2.0 is actually the second dot com bust to come...

got any links for that KE? and by web 2.0 do yo you mean stuff like myspace, facebook and the like rathe rthan say microsoft and google? sounds interesting anyway, i'd be interested to read up more, i barely know anything about this sort of stuff tbh

 

[frogwoman]

Why aren't they called junk bonds anymore? Or junk debt?

bad for PR i guess, a bit like this recesison's not really a recession.

 

[goebfwai]

When will the recession end?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/01/opinion/01endintro.html?ref=opinion

Nouriel Roubini says there is rising risk of an L-shaped near depression and stagflation
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/

 

[frogwoman]

what do you mean "L shaped" tho? do you mean plummettting in the worlds economy and then a levelling otu of growth etc without ever getting back to its original level?

 

[Wolveryeti]

Yes - no sharp springy rebound.

 

[TomPaine]

got any links for that KE? and by web 2.0 do yo you mean stuff like myspace, facebook and the like rathe rthan say microsoft and google? sounds interesting anyway, i'd be interested to read up more, i barely know anything about this sort of stuff tbh

Yes generally Web 2.0 refers to the newer technologies such as Social Networking, Social Media, Social Bookmarking etc.

I'm pretty convinced this is going to blow up next. I work in the industry as my day job, and in the evenings work with a couple of other guys building a startup company. Funding is drying up fast. One of my business partners through his day job meets with a lot of lawyers VCs etc. and the signs aren't good.
I also speak to a fair number of other people who are clients or general contacts and so get a fairly decent overview of how sections of the "Web 2.0" world are doing.
Plenty of firms out there with stupidly high overheads and absolutly fuck all income. These are being funded out VCs/Angels back pockets and I know a person at one firm the other week who was sent home along with the other staff and told things wouldn't be happening again unless funding came in...

Here is something of interest:

Jan 08
http://mashable.com/2008/01/28/moli-funding/

November 08
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/11/11/the-cotsakos-touch-me-three-social-network-moli-implodes/

There are plenty more turds in the tech punch bowl waiting for their drinkers to choke on.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Goodbye Blockbuster?

US movie rental chain Blockbuster has hired lawyers to explore a possible bankruptcy filing, according to a source. Skip related content

The company has hired law firm Kirkland & Ellis and is also working with investment bank Rothschild, said the source.

Blockbuster has not responded to requests for comment.

The company is struggling to reinvent itself with increasing numbers of customers migrating to video downloads or mailed rentals, while also restructuring hundreds of millions of dollars in debt.

Executives had said in November that the firm would face challenges refinancing its debt.

Edward Woo, Wedbush Morgan Securities, said: "Blockbuster has been facing some liquidity issues for a while now and this is one of the options they have. It's not a great one.

"I don't think it's going to result in a liquidation like Circuit City, but if you're doing business with them, it's not a great thing," he said.

Mr Woo estimated that Blockbuster had spent $2.7 billion on product and inventory costs, which was mostly video games and DVDs, in 2007.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20090303/twl-blockbuster-explores-bankruptcy-41f21e0.html

 

[Barking_Mad]

Cynicus Economicus has been "invited to have a chat" with the B0E following his requests for information about printing money. Sorry, quantitive easing.

How many bloggers get an invite like that?

Curious.

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2009_02_01_archive.html

 

[Barking_Mad]

Warren Buffett warns of massive investment bubble to pop

Warren Buffett's huge stock losses are the big news of the past week… and Berkshire Hathaway shares are near their 2003 levels.

But the big, actionable idea from Buffett's latest shareholder letter is his take on the Treasury bond bubble. The value legend believes the government's boondoggle stimulus efforts will stoke inflation and pop the giant bond bubble. He puts the current bubble on par with the Nasdaq crash and the housing crash.

As Reuters featured: "When the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s," he went on. "But the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost equally extraordinary."

 

[teqniq]

Cynicus Economicus has been "invited to have a chat" with the B0E following his requests for information about printing money. Sorry, quantitive easing.

How many bloggers get an invite like that?

Curious.

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2009_02_01_archive.html

It would appear he's had the 'chat'

A short while ago I received a letter from a BoE Press Officer requesting a 'chat'. I have now had that 'chat'. The summary of the conversation is that no further detail on the policy will be provided until the publication of the letters between the Chancellor and the BoE which discuss the policy. Whilst the BoE press officer was inevitably polite, he cast no light upon the policy. A long conversation amounted to 'wait for the letters to be published'. The only point of substance was a suggestion of a possible means of reporting the QE activity, but this was not an official statement of intent....

The whole article is very interesting (mainly focussing on China) and there is a 'form' letter to send to your M.P. concerning the above.

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/

 

[A Dashing Blade]

"Big Picture" Merrill Lynch research note from end Jan. Makes for sobering reading.

 

[Barking_Mad]

"Big Picture" Merrill Lynch research note from end Jan. Makes for sobering reading.

Real unemployment rate of 13.5%.

blimey.

 

[yield]

Warren Buffett warns of massive investment bubble to pop

Unsure if this has already been posted.

China to stick with US bonds

FT. February 11 2009

Luo Ping, a director-general at the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said after a speech in New York that China would continue to buy Treasuries in spite of its misgivings about US finances.

Mr Luo, speaking at the Global Association of Risk Management’s 10th Annual Risk Management Convention, said: “Except for US Treasuries, what can you hold?” he asked. “Gold? You don’t hold Japanese government bonds or UK bonds. US Treasuries are the safe haven. For everyone, including China, it is the only option.”

Mr Luo, whose English tends toward the colloquial, added: “We hate you guys. Once you start issuing $1 trillion-$2 trillion [$1,000bn-$2,000bn] . . .we know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys but there is nothing much we can do.”

 

[Fruitloop]

They have to say that, 'cos if they said 'we're going to flog off all our US bonds', those bonds wouldn't be worth much. I would expect them to keep saying they're sticking with US bonds even once they start selling, assuming that aren't doing so already.

 

[yield]

Very true, Fruitloop.

 

[TomPaine]

Well the markets are back up again today. I wonder if this is just another plateau before another drop?

 

[Jessiedog]

Anyone listening to Brown in the US?


"Hundreds of years of partnership.


Second world war.


Friendship.


Work tirelessly.


Shared message.


Blah blah blah."




Yer. Nice one Gordon.


But when do we get our fucking money back, you cunt?


2038?


You cunt?






Woof

 

[Jessiedog]

This speech has Mandleson's 'orrible, little, sticky, stinking fingers all over it.


Nothing but spin.


Which can only mean there's no concrete solutions.

It's over then.

Welcome to Cameron Town in mid-2010 in the UK.

Our focus groups tell us that the best name for the incoming government (which will be more extremely Conservative than Thatcher's regime,) would be represented by the nomiker "Nu-Nu-Labour".


Batten down the hatches peeps.

Look after your friends and family.....


.....And be nice to each other.





Woof

 

[Sunray]

Anyone listening to Brown in the US?


"Hundreds of years of partnership.


Second world war.


Friendship.


Work tirelessly.


Shared message.


Blah blah blah."




Yer. Nice one Gordon.


But when do we get our fucking money back, you cunt?


2038?


You cunt?






Woof

When was the last time you paid UK taxes?

 

[Barking_Mad]

UK Food prices surge 9% despite inflation fall

Shoppers are being hit by a surge in the cost of groceries despite falls in the headline rate of inflation, according to figures released today.

Shop price inflation rose last month because of the increasing cost of meat, fresh produce and tinned goods, with overall prices up at an annual rate of 9 per cent, from 7.5 per cent in January.

But the CPI measure of inflation has fallen to 3 per cent, down from a peak of 5.2 per cent in September last year, and is forecast to drop to near 0 per cent in the coming months.

Overall shop prices rose at an annual rate of 1.9 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent in January, a survey from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) shows.

 

[Sunray]

That is the oil price wave of last year filtering through. This will go into reverse at some point in the future if oil stays at the 40-50 a barrel that its at now. This is one of the reasons they are suggesting (for the 1st time in my life) deflation is imminent at some point.

 

[Dr Jon]

UK Food prices surge 9% despite inflation fall

Rip-off Britain!

That is the oil price wave of last year filtering through. This will go into reverse at some point in the future if oil stays at the 40-50 a barrel that its at now. This is one of the reasons they are suggesting (for the 1st time in my life) deflation is imminent at some point.

I don't think the average consumer will see it that way.

One step closer to revolution...

 

[goebfwai]

I don't think historic oil prices have the most significant bearing on the food price increases, current or historic. Food price inflation has been running at 10-15% per annum for the past couple of years. Increasing number of droughts of extraordinary severity, crop yield reductions, bee colony collapses disorder (important crop pollinators), storms, floods, climate change, crop stress, unseasonal weather, countries stockpiling, food crops being used for biofuels are all serving to cause price increases. No doubt bankruptcies, supplier reductions and availability of credit will soon all be feeding in to the equation too.

 

[goebfwai]

We're in QE street now!

"I still believe the global nature of the crisis, the number of financial unexploded bombs in the system, the potential for disintegration of the world economy into blocs pursuing rival bailout strategies, the rapidity of the onset of recession - all this has the potential to prevent the medicine working.

And when it does work? Well we'll be in a highly state-ised economy, with government holding everything from stakes in car companies, train operating companies, builders; a massively expanded public sector and hopefully a better developed green tech sector; and a lot more public and social housing. Capitalism will look very different and the political choices this generation had the luxury of making will not be on offer to the next generation. That, if it sounds dystopian, is the "best case" scenario I can realistically think of."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/paulmason/2009/03/were_in_qe_street_now.html

(the comments section is worth a read too).

 

[Sunray]

I don't think historic oil prices have the most significant bearing on the food price increases, current or historic. Food price inflation has been running at 10-15% per annum for the past couple of years. Increasing number of droughts of extraordinary severity, crop yield reductions, bee colony collapses disorder (important crop pollinators), storms, floods, climate change, crop stress, unseasonal weather, countries stockpiling, food crops being used for biofuels are all serving to cause price increases. No doubt bankruptcies, supplier reductions and availability of credit will soon all be feeding in to the equation too.

Given that Oil powers the world economy it has more effect on food prices than any other factor I can think of, its easily the biggest driver of food price. Everything dealing with the production and transportation of food cost more when oil costs more. Nothing else has such a blanket effect.

 

[TomPaine]

I wonder if we will see the price of oil kept low for a while to be honest. The loss of revenue for people like Chavez and Iran is going to hammer their ability to govern.