General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

[brogdale]

Majority - even if only of two. It became a minority government, but not until...77?

Apologies; yes I was wrong. Their 319 represented a majority of 4 based on the, then, 634 seat parliament.

My bad.

 

[frogwoman]

revealed: coalition proposals to cut welfare for sick, poor, young and disabled

Exclusive: ‘Extremely controversial’ ideas by civil servants include benefit freeze and making it harder for sick people to claim state aid, leaked papers show
A list of “very, highly or extremely controversial” potential cuts to benefits have been drawn up by civil servants in response to warnings that the next government would struggle to keep welfare spending below a legal cap of about £120bn a year.

The cuts proposed by officials at the Department for Work and Pensions include abolishing statutory maternity pay and barring under-25s from claiming incapacity benefit or housing benefit. Money could also be raised, civil servants suggested, by increasing the bedroom tax in certain cases.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...lash-welfare-for-sick-poor-young-and-disabled

Wtf??? Theres no way they could get away with introducing this is there? treelover

 

[belboid]

Wtf??? Theres no way they could get away with introducing this is there? treelover

easy peasy. Reducing under 25s access to benefits has been going on for ages, and as for SMP - they mean removing the government 'subsidy' and leaving it entirely to employers to pay. There would still be a payment made to pregnant women/new mothers, but it wouldnt be from the state (or would be, but at a drastically reduced rate)

 

[Wilf]

nope!

Tories

277 - Con
027 - Lib
008 - Dup
------------
312 - Total

Labour + left(ish)

267 - Lab
052 - SNP
004 - Plaid
001 - Green
-------------
324 - Total

Enough Lab+others to vote down the Tories' QS, then Milliband is PM.

I suppose UKIP would vote with the Tories, too, even though they won't be in the coalition. But their 2 seats or whatever won't save the QS.

Yeah, I know the figures. I've been keeping an eye on the polls and the way they map onto seats (a most imperfect process even under normal circs, but even more so with ukip and green votes as they are). I'm left with not much more than a feeling in me water. Labour have been so uninspiring and provided so little by way of an inspiring message that I'm guessing some of their vote or, just as important' turnout, is flaky. I just get a sense the Tory vote will be higher than in the polls. But we'll see.

If I'm right and if con+yellow scum+dup is close to the winning post, that means lab + snp doesn't do it. Miliband's only way in is Lab + Lib coalition + snp passive support. I suspect clegg prefers the former. This is all little more than pessimism (not that there's much to be optimistic about if Lab get in), just have a feeling the lack of buzz about Labour leaves them vulnerable.

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

I'm tempted to bet on a Lab-Lib minority government. Is that likely?

It would be a neat solution to the "legitimacy" issue of a minority Labour government with the Conservatives having more seats and a higher share of the popular vote.

I say issue, it's not really given that it's pretty well established by now that we don't vote for the prime minister or cabinet positions, we vote for an assembly of constituency MPs from which the cabinet is formed. Legitimacy doesn't come into it either, if one possible government doesn't command the confidence of said MP collective and one does. Solution isn't the right word either, since it's a fudge to make numbers add up. Not really neat either, given it's a bunch of twats joining forces with another bunch of different but the same twats.

So it's not really a neat solution to the "legitimacy" issue of a minority Labour government with the Conservatives having more seats and a higher share of the popular vote. Could happen.

 

[DotCommunist]

Labour did well in the second election of 1974 so I'm not sure why it should be a nightmare. Other than having to go through the process again, of course.

Because that was 40 odd years ago in a very different political landscape both internally and ex.

 

[Quartz]

Because that was 40 odd years ago in a very different political landscape both internally and ex.

True, but to automatically classify a second election as a bad thing is simply wrong.

 

[King Biscuit Time]

I'm tempted to bet on a Lab-Lib minority government. Is that likely?

It will considerably more likely if nick clegg loses Sheffield Hallam tomorrow night.

 

[Dogsauce]

Apparently a Times journalist interviewed on the wireless has just said "Everybody is waiting on the result of the election before they commit to buying a house because of the prospect of a mansion tax".

Everybody?!!

 

[two sheds]

I wonder whether this time again we'll have many people when asked by pollsters how they're going to vote saying 'Labour', going into the polling booth and ticking 'Conservative', then coming out and when asked how they voted saying 'Labour'.

 

[frogwoman]

 

[Dogsauce]

It will considerably more likely if nick clegg loses Sheffield Hallam tomorrow night.

Decapitate the party and see which way it falls. I'm guessing it would still probably go to the right.

 

[teqniq]

Apparently a Times journalist interviewed on the wireless has just said "Everybody is waiting on the result of the election before they commit to buying a house because of the prospect of a mansion tax".

Everybody?!!

What fucking planet do some of these cunts live on?

 

[frogwoman]

I really hope clegg loses his seat.

 

[Dogsauce]

What fucking planet do some of these cunts live on?

Same one as the Evening Standard writers at a guess.

 

[Wilf]

I wonder whether this time again we'll have many people when asked by pollsters how they're going to vote saying 'Labour', going into the polling booth and ticking 'Conservative', then coming out and when asked how they voted saying 'Labour'.

I think there will be a bit of that - along with Labour voters not coming out to vote.

 

[belboid]

I really hope clegg loses his seat.

Sadly, he looks like being kept in place thanks to a collapse in tory votes

 

[frogwoman]

Predictions for lefty parties then?

 

[frogwoman]

Sadly, he looks like being kept in place thanks to a collapse in tory votes

 

[teqniq]

Sadly, he looks like being kept in place thanks to a collapse in tory votes

'Breathtaking' surge of Tory tactical votes to save Nick Clegg in Hallam

 

[Pickman's model]

Apparently a Times journalist interviewed on the wireless has just said "Everybody is waiting on the result of the election before they commit to buying a house because of the prospect of a mansion tax".

Everybody?!!

i certainly am because i think the price of mansions may tumble if lots of people start selling them. i'm not paying £9m now when they might be going for a mere £2m in a few weeks time. and maybe even at a price to which i might aspire

 

[King Biscuit Time]

That's a shit poll though. Allocating DKs buy 2010 voting is bound to be worth a few percent for Clegg. Not saying that he will lose his seat mind, its just more likely than that poll suggests.

 

[YouSir]

Predictions for lefty parties then?

A landslide victory for TUSC when the ghost of Bob Crow appears towering above Deptford and calls the faithful to action.

 

[teqniq]

That's a shit poll though. Allocating DKs buy 2010 voting is bound to be worth a few percent for Clegg. Not saying that he will lose his seat mind, its just more likely than that poll suggests.

I was wondering if it was a bit of wish-fullfillment on the part of the Graun....

 

[8ball]

I wonder whether this time again we'll have many people when asked by pollsters how they're going to vote saying 'Labour', going into the polling booth and ticking 'Conservative', then coming out and when asked how they voted saying 'Labour'.

If anyone on here sees a pollster, tell them you've just voted UKIP - should be good for a giggle when the results come in.

 

[belboid]

That's a shit poll though. Allocating DKs buy 2010 voting is bound to be worth a few percent for Clegg. Not saying that he will lose his seat mind, its just more likely than that poll suggests.

It's not shit, it's a perfectly valid way of doing it. Experience shows that by and large the dont knows do go back to their previous vote, and there is good reason to believe their may well be a 'shy Clegg' factor. It'll probably be closer than that last poll suggests, but i think the shit will scrape it.

 

[King Biscuit Time]

Clearly no point falling out as we seem to agree on the outcome and would both like to see him out on his are, but you can't day that the 2015 dks are the same people as the 2010 dks, and you certainly wouldn't expect them to break as 2010 when labour weren't campaigning and Clegg mania was at its tedious height.

 

[belboid]

that's not what it's saying tho. They're asking todays DK's how they voted in 2010, and assuming that they (or rather, a significant proportion of them) will go back to how they voted before. I did suspect that a lot of them know full well how they are going to vote, but are embarrassed to say so.

Hopefully, I'm talking utter bollocks tho.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Did anyone post this already? http://principalfish.co.uk/election2015/

 

[brogdale]

...and again today. If only those Labour plotters had managed to keep the GE secret.