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General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

brogdale said:
...and again today. If only those Labour plotters had managed to keep the GE secret.

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Where would we be without the Telegraph undercovering these dastardly plots!?
 
So I'm calling it (
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):

A Labour/Lib Dem coalition, with the Krankies doing whatever but abstaining/supporting on key votes (for fear of implicitly supporting the Etonians).

I thang yew.
 
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/general-election-2015-jeremy-hunt-5640463

General Election 2015: Jeremy Hunt could lose seat to GP after bookies slash odds on top doctor

A doctor is the bookies’ favourite to unseat Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt with a Lib Dem chief urging party supporters to back her.

The odds of Dr Louise Irvine, who is standing against Mr Hunt in his South West Surrey constituency, winning have now been offered at just 12/1.

Dr Irvine, a GP in Lewisham, South East London, led the successful Save Lewisham Hospital campaign which won a landmark legal battle to stop Mr Hunt shutting services.

A council member of the British Medical Association, which represents 150,000 doctors, she is running against Mr Hunt for the National Health Action party.

She says she is standing in opposition to his “cuts and privatisation of the NHS”.
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Oooooo I wish :(. I'm not sure the Mirror has quite got to grips with the phrase "bookies’ favourite", though, and they go on ...

Mr Hunt is still the overwhelming favourite to retain his seat, with odds of 1/50 offered by bookies Paddy Power.
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The tories had a decapitation strategy last time, targeting his seat very hard, and didn't come close, so no chance this time. They'll also be haemorrhaging votes to UKIP as there's a strong far-right vote in that area (Morley once had a BNP councillor and they're big on St Georges Day).

Balls just comes across as one of those oafish grammar school boys who are full of themselves, I don't know why he's considered an asset. In another life he'd be running an estate agency or in a low-level management role bullying staff in a call centre.
 
Dogsauce said:
The tories had a decapitation strategy last time, targeting his seat very hard, and didn't come close, so no chance this time. They'll also be haemorrhaging votes to UKIP as there's a strong far-right vote in that area (Morley once had a BNP councillor and they're big on St Georges Day).

Balls just comes across as one of those oafish grammar school boys who are full of themselves, I don't know why he's considered an asset. In another life he'd be running an estate agency or in a low-level management role bullying staff in a call centre.
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Public school-boy, actually.
 
brogdale said:
Public school-boy, actually.
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Most grammar schools are private up this way ('day schools'). I've met 'young entrepreneur' types from them and they're generally in the mould of blokeish chummy and overconfident twats that remind me of Balls/Jamie Oliver, somehow more clueless than the proper posh boarding school types who have some self-awareness. Don't know why that is.
 
Doesn't the Telegraph pride itself on being a highbrow paper?

btw, the image, they are not members of the public, they are labour students, this elections seems to be one of the most controlled for a long time.
 
Dogsauce said:
Most grammar schools are private up this way ('day schools'). I've met 'young entrepreneur' types from them and they're generally in the mould of blokeish chummy and overconfident twats that remind me of Balls/Jamie Oliver, somehow more clueless than the proper posh boarding school types who have some self-awareness. Don't know why that is.
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Only in name, and Nottingham High School obviously doesn't. Grammar schools were (and still are in some places) the academically 'selective' tier of the post '44 tripartite state secondary system. It is true that when faced with the process of comprehensive transition many became fee-paying and retained the title, but to my mind it's more appropriate to refer to their alumni as public school boys/girls as the prime form of selection in such places is the size of their parents' bank accounts rather than any notion of IQ.
 
How many seats will UKIP get?

I want to put some money on, and the deal is under two or three or more.... I'm tempted to go two or less...... any thoughts?
 
better odds betting against Farage winning his. Tho, technically, it might be worth putting money on him, so you'll be pleased whatever the outcome
 
B0B2oo9 said:
How many seats will UKIP get?

I want to put some money on, and the deal is under two or three or more.... I'm tempted to go two or less...... any thoughts?
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1 would be my guess (Clacton). With Thurrock as a possible second. I think it's unlikely they'll take South Thanet if they're not even polling ahead of the Tories at this point.
 
brogdale said:
...and again today. If only those Labour plotters had managed to keep the GE secret.

c1d78224-8e39-4d21-a423-481f1116f050_zpsydsmtrtc.png
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If they're only pouring over the rulebook now, then they're pretty fucking lazy.

Surely, in the event of a Labour + SNP majority commons, he just needs to threaten to vote against the queen's speech and that'll basically force Cameron to resign?
 
Local paper out today and noticed we have some independent I'd not spotted previously standing for the Free Public Transport Party. Other polices were drug legalisation and a citizen's wage (and he's a sober-looking middle aged type, not obviously local hippy constituency, looking up this in the local paper he seems all right, closing lots of prisons too: http://www.stroudnewsandjournal.co....ort_Party_candidate_for_Stroud_David_Michael/). Also some social media activist type knob standing as a YourStroudMP, think he means to vote as instructed in a mini-poll on each issue or some such bollocks.
 
Intriguing theory in the Torygraph - the Lib Dem MPs who survive will be from the left of the party. They'll support a Labour minority govt but not a Tory one. Labour are accepting that Clegg decapitation won't work and isn't desirable http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...eron-from-Downing-Street-by-Friday-night.html

The Telegraph also understands that Labour has pulled extra resources from trying to defeat Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam and “decapitate” the Lib Dems.

Labour strategists now accept that Mr Clegg’s political career looks likely to be saved from a combination of an estimated £200,000 spent on campaigning in the seat in recent weeks, and Tory supporters voting tactically to help Mr Clegg.

Going easy on Mr Clegg will also help Labour if the party tries to do a power-sharing deal with the Lib Dems after the general election.

Senior Lib Dems believe that the rump of the party which survives what a testing polling day will be far more left wing than group of Lib Dem MPs who were elected after May 2010.

This would make a deal with the Conservatives more unattainable, and make it more likely that an arrangement can be worked out with the Labour party.
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So I did some pouring over the rules this morning, and here they are

Parliaments with no overall majority in the House of Commons 2.12 Where an election does not result in an overall majority for a single party, the incumbent government remains in office unless and until the Prime Minister tenders his or her resignation and the Government’s resignation to the Sovereign. An incumbent government is entitled to wait until the new Parliament has met to see if it can command the confidence of the House of Commons, but is expected to 14 Chapter Two resign if it becomes clear that it is unlikely to be able to command that confidence and there is a clear alternative.

2.13 Where a range of different administrations could potentially be formed, political parties may wish to hold discussions to establish who is best able to command the confidence of the House of Commons and should form the next government. The Sovereign would not expect to become involved in any negotiations, although there are responsibilities on those involved in the process to keep the Palace informed. This could be done by political parties or the Cabinet Secretary. The Principal Private Secretary to the Prime Minister may also have a role, for example, in communicating with the Palace.
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https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf
(page 14 of the document as marked, 21 on my PDF reader)
 
If Clegg survives he'll be a continuing liability to the lib dems. I'm surprised pragmatic lib dem supporters aren't voting against him in his own constituency for the sake of the party.
 
JimW said:
Local paper out today and noticed we have some independent I'd not spotted previously standing for the Free Public Transport Party. Other polices were drug legalisation and a citizen's wage (and he's a sober-looking middle aged type, not obviously local hippy constituency, looking up this in the local paper he seems all right, closing lots of prisons too: http://www.stroudnewsandjournal.co....ort_Party_candidate_for_Stroud_David_Michael/). Also some social media activist type knob standing as a YourStroudMP, think he means to vote as instructed in a mini-poll on each issue or some such bollocks.
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That David Michael seems sound from his interview.
 
Gus O'Donnell's got his ban hammer ready:

“I’ll be in London at various studios trying to ensure that those interpretations that come out of the exit poll at one minute past 10 are actually in line with what’s in the Cabinet Manual, and people aren’t saying: ‘Oh well, I think I’ve got a chance because I got this number of seats or whatever’.”

“One thing I should say about the cabinet manual. People keep saying it is my cabinet manual. It is the government’s Cabinet Manual. It is the cabinet’s Cabinet Manual in particular, and the preface is there signed by the prime minister, David Cameron.”

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...argest-party-does-not-automatically-become-pm
 
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