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General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

What has changed to seemingly make coalitions so much more probable, by the way?

I seem to remember that we've always had labour and tories at about 35% each and liberals/libdems at 20% but with first past the post that's given either labour or tories a working and sometimes considerable majority. Why different now?

It's the transition away from the 2 (and 2.5) party system that FPTP is designed for. Graphs like this one demonstrate the changes quite well:-

upload_2015-5-5_9-30-18.png
 
It's the transition away from the 2 (and 2.5) party system that FPTP is designed for. Graphs like this one demonstrate the changes quite well:-

View attachment 71110

Oo, interesting image, ta, where did it come from?

So (with JTG's comment) it's the growth of the minor parties that is pegging the main two back to 35% or so? I suppose the minor parties could be mopping up the floating voters - perhaps its largely the same people who were swayed at election time to/from labour/tory.
 
It's the transition away from the 2 (and 2.5) party system that FPTP is designed for. Graphs like this one demonstrate the changes quite well:-

View attachment 71110
that looks like the himalayas in the morning sun.

cf

jhomolhari1.jpg
 
It's the transition away from the 2 (and 2.5) party system that FPTP is designed for. Graphs like this one demonstrate the changes quite well:-

View attachment 71110

Isn't that chart a bit confusing? It was the Whigs rather than Liberals in the early 1800s.

From wiki on British Political Parties, the Whigs joined with some Tories to became the Liberals after 1868. The dark yellow piece on the diagram looks like the Liberal Unionist Party who merged with the tories in 1912.

So wiki reckons that today's Lib Dems are actually the Whigs people are voting for?
 
Isn't that chart a bit confusing? It was the Whigs rather than Liberals in the early 1800s.

From wiki on British Political Parties, the Whigs joined with some Tories to became the Liberals after 1868. The dark yellow piece on the diagram looks like the Liberal Unionist Party who merged with the tories in 1912.

So wiki reckons that today's Lib Dems are actually the Whigs people are voting for?
Yes it is a simplified representation, but the point remains in answer to your question about what has changed over the last decades.
 
Out of interest, what percentage of the entire electorate does the SNP-voting proportion add up to? Scotland is something like 8% of the UK population, so if it's 50% SNP then that's around 4% overall, is that about right? I'm surprised it's not included separately when poll results are presented for the whole UK (could be a deliberate tactic to help deny legitimacy to their 'block').

Labour are showing as roughly level pegging with the tory vote in England & Wales, which should gain them seats here. If Scotland sits in the labour column that ought to stop any tory government in its tracks. If tories gain seats anywhere it's likely to be at the expense of the lib dems, so that won't help their numbers overall if they're aiming for the same coalition (but might help with this spurious 'moral case' of having the most seats of any party).

It's all a delightful mess, right now I'm tuning out a bit thinking wait and see, finding it hard to carry on worrying about it.
 
Out of interest, what percentage of the entire electorate does the SNP-voting proportion add up to? Scotland is something like 8% of the UK population, so if it's 50% SNP then that's around 4% overall, is that about right? I'm surprised it's not included separately when poll results are presented for the whole UK (could be a deliberate tactic to help deny legitimacy to their 'block').

Labour are showing as roughly level pegging with the tory vote in England & Wales, which should gain them seats here. If Scotland sits in the labour column that ought to stop any tory government in its tracks. If tories gain seats anywhere it's likely to be at the expense of the lib dems, so that won't help their numbers overall if they're aiming for the same coalition (but might help with this spurious 'moral case' of having the most seats of any party).

It's all a delightful mess, right now I'm tuning out a bit thinking wait and see, finding it hard to carry on worrying about it.

Yes, your maths is good. Some pollsters have included separate SNP figures at times and 4 or even 5% of the UK popular vote has been recorded.

And...yes, because of their Scots meltdown, Lab's E&W only figures have, for some time, been better than their UK polling.
 
Out of interest, what percentage of the entire electorate does the SNP-voting proportion add up to? Scotland is something like 8% of the UK population, so if it's 50% SNP then that's around 4% overall, is that about right? I'm surprised it's not included separately when poll results are presented for the whole UK (could be a deliberate tactic to help deny legitimacy to their 'block').
yup, 4% is about right. It is becoming more common to see it included now, but its still a bit hit and miss. Before, it was barely worth mentioning, but now....it does look a bit funny 'how many MP's on such a small percentage?' Arguably it'd look worse for the SNP if they did include it
 
Apparently there's an election on.
It was on when I left. But I've been walking in the hills and had no wifi. I wondered if there had been any seismic developments. (My guess is not, but you never know. My money wasn't on Charlotte for the Magic Baby).
 
Hopefully by the end of next week I won't be hearing the phrase 'hardworking ordinary families' again and we'll be onto the well worn 'putting difference aside to work for Britain'
 
Desperation showing....not very subtle stuff...

7cccf919-89fe-4856-adc0-873de26d4030_zpshcb37klc.png


26 seats where you shouldn't vote Ukip
  1. Amber Valley
  2. Bedford
  3. Blackpool North and Cleveleys
  4. Broxtowe
  5. Bury North
  6. Cardiff North
  7. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire
  8. Croydon Central
  9. Enfield North
  10. Gloucester
  11. Halesowen and Rowley Regis
  12. Ipswich
  13. Lancaster and Fleetwood
  14. Newton Abbot
  15. Norwich North
  16. Nuneaton
  17. Peterborough
  18. Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
  19. Pudsey
  20. Sherwood
  21. Stockton South
  22. Stroud
  23. Warwickshire North
  24. Watford
  25. Waveney
  26. Wirral West

Lol
 
Stroud is the whitest place in britain. Even my slow witted brother noticed it. The only time you see a non white face is when someones serving you at the garage.

It is a beautiful country landscape . Cider With Rosie country
 
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