Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

two sheds said:
Nice high pressure on Thursday looks possible :)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/...#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1430956800
Click to expand...
Yeah, the occluded front (cloud/lightish rain) is progged further North now...really only affecting Scotland/NE England (and they're all used to a bit of rain!).

30d542be-b540-40ca-9d37-9eab86b7f76c_zpsldctt6ve.png


So no excuses for Labour...the weather is going to be fine enough for the vast bulk of the country.
 
'Russell Brand has just released a video on his YouTube series the Trews in which he urges people in England to vote Labour, in a huge departure from his previous stance that voting is a waste of time.

He explains his change of heart because “the Conservative party plans to dismantle our community assets, to tear apart the very fabric of our society”.

He says his interview with Ed Miliband last week made him change his stance on the value of voting:

What I heard Ed Miliband say was that if we speak, he will listen. So on that basis we have no choice but to take decisive action to end the danger of the Conservative party.David Cameron might think I’m a joke but I don’t think there’s anything funny about what the Conservative party has been doing to this country and we have to stop them …

He then moves on to say that if you’re Scottish, you’ll probably be voting SNP; if you live in Brighton Pavilion, you should vote for Caroline Lucas; but if you’re anywhere else, you should vote Labour.'

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...knife-edge-ken-clarke-warns-chaos-second-vote
:rolleyes:
 
Sue said:
'Russell Brand has just released a video on his YouTube series the Trews in which he urges people in England to vote Labour, in a huge departure from his previous stance that voting is a waste of time.

He explains his change of heart because “the Conservative party plans to dismantle our community assets, to tear apart the very fabric of our society”.

He says his interview with Ed Miliband last week made him change his stance on the value of voting:

What I heard Ed Miliband say was that if we speak, he will listen. So on that basis we have no choice but to take decisive action to end the danger of the Conservative party.David Cameron might think I’m a joke but I don’t think there’s anything funny about what the Conservative party has been doing to this country and we have to stop them …

He then moves on to say that if you’re Scottish, you’ll probably be voting SNP; if you live in Brighton Pavilion, you should vote for Caroline Lucas; but if you’re anywhere else, you should vote Labour.'

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...knife-edge-ken-clarke-warns-chaos-second-vote
:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Saw a comment on that earlier. 'An articulate idiot is still an idiot'. :D
 
Spent the morning trying to explain why the Tories are bad to someone at work, can't budge him from his "well I'm paying less tax" and "well they should get jobs" stance. At least don't think I can, but I did manage to make him revert to him going on about how it doesn't matter its blue or red really so maybe I can persuade of the need for voting reform at least.
 
I'm fairly confident UKIP won't win anywhere in the Valleys, but I think they'll be a strong second in a few constituencies. Like some of the northern seats they've polled well in, Labour completely takes them for granted and doesn't improve anything and no other party bothers. Be interested to see if Leanne Woods high visibility this campaign translates to higher votes outside the Plaid heartlands. There's a lot of Plaid placards up in my spot of West Cardiff, but there's also two Welsh medium schools within a mile so I'd imagine we're the epicentre.
 
You reckon UKIP might do better in reducing Labour's lead in the Valleys than Plaid, Plumdaff ?

Which bits? :confused:

(In my non-Valleys seat -- Swansea East, 10,000 Lab majority last time -- Ukip are not too visible, Plaid working a bit harder)
 
Has anyone noticed many posters in the 'poorer' parts of town?, friend says a fair few UKIP posters on estates in Barnsley, but overall here its mostly affluent areas with the signs, and there are lots and lots of them, especially in Hallam, though the Lib Dem ones don't seem to mention Clegg!
 
In a poll of 501 people just 5 people changing their intended preference gives a 1% change to the polling result. 5 people.
So when we hear about Clegg's 7% 'surge' remember that only 35 people in this sample are meant to have changed their intended vote in his favour.

But of course there's the other glaring fault with the conclusions of this poll:-

"ICM then made a second adjustment, which assumes that a proportion of voters who won’t say or don’t know who they will support will go back to the party they backed last time."

So if you voted in 2010 for Clegg when he was deliberately running his campaign as a 'vote Liberal Democrat to stop the Tories" but don't want to share your views with ICM you will now be counted automatically by ICM as voting for him again despite all that has happened in the last 5 years.
We all know what happened to Clegg's reputation and personal ratings since the vote in 2010. He has now fallen from the highest rating to the very lowest, a byword for treachery and openly despised by many of those who formerly voted for him.
Even ICM must have realised that there has been a change in the public's view of Nick Clegg. So why haven't they factored that into their calculations when they make that ludicrous assumption that voters automatically vote the same in 2015 as in 2010?
Click to expand...

Sharp deconstruction of the Hallam poll by commenter GRA GRA GRA on CIf.
 
William of Walworth said:
You reckon UKIP might do better in reducing Labour's lead in the Valleys than Plaid, Plumdaff ?

Which bits? :confused:

(In my non-Valleys seat -- Swansea East, 10,000 Lab majority last time -- Ukip are not too visible, Plaid working a bit harder)
Click to expand...

I'm concerned that UKIPs strong showing in the Euros could translate to some second places. Plaid only came second in Cynon as far as I can tell in 2010, and although I hope there will be a strong Plaid showing, I suspect it's likely to be in Llanelli and even here in Cardiff West than Blaenau or Torfaen. I'd love to be proven wrong.
 
weepiper said:
They're not 'the SNP'.

Click to expand...



Well. The news report on STV showed firstly, more than one man, and secondly, a number of people waving SNP logos.

There was a wee man called Schicklgrubr, who decided that he didn't like the way things were. When he started out on his campaign, a funny thing happened. People upset the meetings of other parties, but Mr Schicklgrubr of course said they were nothing to do with him.

It happened during the referendum campaign, it has happened on a number of occasions during the GE campaign.
 
treelover said:
half expecting this, wonder if the call went out in Toryland

again it could be Guardian clickbait
Click to expand...

I suspect that Cameron hates Clegg with a passion. If it comes to the bit though, he would want Tory votes to switch to Clegg.

Power is a powerful drug, Clegg and Cameron will do anything to hang on in there.

I never thought I would see the day when I wanted a Labour win. I know, in terms of the Labour party of the past...

Oh, BTW, I came across something interesting the other day. The right to buy your Council house was in Labour's 1959 manifesto.
 
Sasaferrato said:
I suspect that Cameron hates Clegg with a passion. If it comes to the bit though, he would want Tory votes to switch to Clegg.

Power is a powerful drug, Clegg and Cameron will do anything to hang on in there.

I never thought I would see the day when I wanted a Labour win. I know, in terms of the Labour party of the past...

Oh, BTW, I came across something interesting the other day. The right to buy your Council house was in Labour's 1959 manifesto.
Click to expand...
don't think it's been mentioned, but the tottenham tories lost their chairman, one justin hinchcliffe, after he encouraged tory voters in the neighbouring constituency of hornsey and wood green to vote lib dem http://www.conservativehome.com/par...rman-who-is-campaigning-for-the-lib-dems.html
 
treelover said:
Sharp deconstruction of the Hallam poll by commenter GRA GRA GRA on CIf.
Click to expand...

The polling companies have been remarkedly accurate over the years, as have the bookies. I think the John Major re-election caught them a bit flat-footed, IIRC, but other than that they have been pretty good.

I take your point about extrapolating results from such a small sample.
 
Sasaferrato said:
The polling companies have been remarkedly accurate over the years, as have the bookies. I think the John Major re-election caught them a bit flat-footed, IIRC, but other than that they have been pretty good.

I take your point about extrapolating results from such a small sample.
Click to expand...


The bookies have both Milliband and Cameron at 10/11 as next PM.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Elpenor
Rewatching the 1997 General Election (bbc iplayer) and memories of it
2 3 4 5
Replies
132
Views
5K
isvicthere?
isvicthere?
scalyboy
Norn Iron election results
Replies
16
Views
776
PR1Berske
PR1Berske
Jeff Robinson
Election good news results only
Replies
14
Views
912
ruffneck23
ruffneck23
editor
  • Poll
Do you want a separate sub forum for the General Election 2024?
2 3
Replies
83
Views
4K
PR1Berske
PR1Berske
Eric Jarvis
New group to challenge Steve Reed at general election
Replies
20
Views
1K
Eric Jarvis
Eric Jarvis
Back
Top Bottom