General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

[treelover]

The Conservatives have responded to reports that Labour are considering the option of forming a minority coalition with the Liberal Democrats. A party spokesman just sent me this:

This confirms that if you vote Liberal Democrat, you’ll get an SNP-led Ed Miliband government. This ‘minority coalition’ would be propped up by the SNP.

You can only keep David Cameron as prime minister and get the strong, stable majority government our economy and our country

Guardian update
Bloody hell, things are all over the place, is this bollocks?

 

[Pickman's model]

The bookies have both Milliband and Cameron at 11/10 as next PM.

the cabinet and shadow cabinet should engage in a mass melee on horseguards with the next government formed by the group with the most survivors.

 

[Pickman's model]

Guardian update
Bloody hell, things are all over the place, is this bollocks?

you know where the guardian shit thread is. >>>

 

[treelover]

Nigel Farage has welcomed the Bow Group’s backing of Ukip in marginal constituencies.

Today’s news goes to the heart of what is going on in British politics and reveals the truth that to keep Mr Miliband out of Number 10, people must vote Ukip.

very nice

 

[Up the junction]

Is there any surprise - push comes to shove it's Tory/UKIP vs. The Rest.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Is there any surprise - push comes to shove it's Tory/UKIP vs. The Rest.

Are UKIP likely to get an MP?

 

[Pickman's model]

Are UKIP likely to get an MP?

they've had two...

 

[Sasaferrato]

they've had two...

Aye, two defectors. I would imagine that those two constituencies will go Lib Dem or Labour. UKIP and the Blue Vermin will cannibalise each other.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Guardian update
Bloody hell, things are all over the place, is this bollocks?

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics...lection/prime-minister-after-general-election

 

[Dogsauce]

Guardian update
Bloody hell, things are all over the place, is this bollocks?

I'd find it amusing if there was a Tory tactical vote for the lib dens and then they teamed up with Miliband, just for how much it would cunt off the Tories that have enabled this sort of thing (they are generally having soft campaigns in lab/lib dem marginals to this effect). Clegg's hate factor would go through the roof.

 

[William of Walworth]

Check that out properly Sasaferrato (post #1328) -- Caswell in Clacton is pretty damned likely to hold onto his.

If Reckless loses in Rochester/Strood, it's extremely unlikely to be anything other than to the Tory ...

As for Farage in Thanet ....

 

[Sasaferrato]

Check that out properly Sasaferrato (post #1328) -- Caswell in Clacton is pretty damned likely to hold onto his.

If Reckless loses in Rochester/Strood, it's extremely unlikely to be anything other than to the Tory ...

As for Farage in Thanet ....

 

[William of Walworth]

Wouldn't like to stab any kind of guess on Thanet!

 

[DotCommunist]

let falange take thanet. Let his party grab enough seats to drag the tory party further rightwards in response and so rendert them unelectable outside of the heartlands for another 20 years.

 

[rioted]

let falange take thanet.

What have the people of Thanet ever done to you?

 

[DotCommunist]

What have the people of Thanet ever done to you?

A good point. Perhsps we will have to sacrifice them on the altar of pragmatism. I'm sorry, thanatites. You are a neccesary casualty in a wider war

 

[tbtommyb]

I'd find it amusing if there was a Tory tactical vote for the lib dens and then they teamed up with Miliband, just for how much it would cunt off the Tories that have enabled this sort of thing (they are generally having soft campaigns in lab/lib dem marginals to this effect). Clegg's hate factor would go through the roof.

i guess that's how a lot of labour supporters in tory/LD marginals feel.

 

[brogdale]

A good point. Perhsps we will have to sacrifice them on the altar of pragmatism. I'm sorry, thanatites. You are a neccesary casualty in a wider war

..but...but...they said...Waitrose might close!

 

[Lo Siento.]

wow, that's a pretty good spot, was it on a big scale and who got the proceeds?

RTB existed prior to Thatcher, just under different rules (no huge discounts and the money went back to the local authority)

 

[treelover]

http://www.theguardian.com/media/20...tive-liberal-democrat-coalition-cameron-clegg

Independent backs another Tory/Lib dem coalition

I thought that new editor was a bit of a Tory

So, that's only two English newspapers backing a Labour govt, Mirror uniquiviocally, and the Guardian, with reservations.

So, that's The Sun, Express, Times, Telegraph, Mail, Independent, all supporting the Tories


Democracy, don't you just love it

 

[treelover]

Oh, the byline is by John Rentoul, uber blairite and smarmy git.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

The bookies have both Milliband and Cameron at 10/11 as next PM.

what, like a job share?

 

[Celyn]

The F.T. seems to think the Tories won't be able to make a workable coalition. http://elections.ft.com/uk/2015/projections/

 

[Dogsauce]

Actually, a tie in the number of seats for the two main parties would be amusing in the short-term, see who gets to claim legitimacy then! They'd probably start arguing about the popular vote instead.

I've lost a bit of interest in the election over the last few days, a little resigned to it ending up as a shit sandwich no matter which way it goes, dismayed at how agendas are being set and strings pulled by powerful interests, dismayed (but not surprised) how Miliband is stumbling into every trap the press is setting. There's a crushing inevitability of the same shit carrying on come May 8th.

 

[brogdale]

The F.T. seems to think the Tories won't be able to make a workable coalition. http://elections.ft.com/uk/2015/projections/

That's pretty much right. They ended the last parliament with 302 seats, and if they lose more than 12 of those this time around they're fucked.

Less than 290 will not be enough to get a majority with the LDs, Unionists and UKIP.

 

[brogdale]

There's a crushing inevitability of the same shit carrying on come May 8th.

I'm not so sure. Firstly there is a good chance that Lab+SNP+SDLP+PC+Green would be able to vote down a Cameron QS or, if it is constitutional, force a VoNC on day one of the new parliament. Secondly there is the barely concealed internecine warfare of the vermin's leadership contest; Cameron has to meet with the '22 on Friday and it has been reported that he's going to challenge them to back him (a two-time loser) or he'll tell Brenda to call Milibrand.

The vermin are worried shitless atm

 

[redsquirrel]

http://www.theguardian.com/media/20...tive-liberal-democrat-coalition-cameron-clegg

Independent backs another Tory/Lib dem coalition

I thought that new editor was a bit of a Tory

So, that's only two English newspapers backing a Labour govt, Mirror uniquiviocally, and the Guardian, with reservations.

So, that's The Sun, Express, Times, Telegraph, Mail, Independent, all supporting the Tories


Democracy, don't you just love it

Observer went for Labour too FWIW

 

[ViolentPanda]

I suspect that Cameron hates Clegg with a passion. If it comes to the bit though, he would want Tory votes to switch to Clegg.

Power is a powerful drug, Clegg and Cameron will do anything to hang on in there.

I never thought I would see the day when I wanted a Labour win. I know, in terms of the Labour party of the past...

Oh, BTW, I came across something interesting the other day. The right to buy your Council house was in Labour's 1959 manifesto.

Yes, it was. Now go and research what the 1959 manifesto commitment encompassed (not much at all), and to what extent it was similar to or the same as Right to Buy post-1979. Be warned - if you can find the manifesto it's boring and uninformative.

 

[two sheds]

What has changed to seemingly make coalitions so much more probable, by the way?

I seem to remember that we've always had labour and tories at about 35% each and liberals/libdems at 20% but with first past the post that's given either labour or tories a working and sometimes considerable majority. Why different now?

 

[JTG]

What has changed to seemingly make coalitions so much more probable, by the way?

I seem to remember that we've always had labour and tories at about 35% each and liberals/libdems at 20% but with first past the post that's given either labour or tories a working and sometimes considerable majority. Why different now?

Nope, winning party almost always had 40%+ of the vote each time