General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

[brogdale]

Weather update.
This is the first chance to have a look at the UKMO's (human interpreted) FAX Charts for Thursday the 7th...

Some occluded (probably decaying) fronts and the odd trough in a fairly slack, coolish NWly airstream. Pretty non-descript for the most part. Bits and pieces of cloud, bits of rain on and off for some...but no game-changer.

Not 'tory', nor 'Labour' weather. A tie!

 

[William of Walworth]

Much more dry that wet being the main thing. And Friday onwards look mainly dry as well, especially in the South. I've been checking the technical stuff myself (on Netweather) because of the post-Election festival we're going to on Friday.

 

[brogdale]

Much more dry that wet being the main thing. And Friday onwards look mainly dry as well, especially in the South. I've been checking the technical stuff myself (on Netweather) because of the post-Election festival we're going to on Friday.

Yes, mostly dry and cloudy would be a good summary.

Not much chance of the weather influencing many people's decision whether or not to vote...or festival for that matter!

 

[Maurice Picarda]

I thought it was correlatory, rather then binary. As in, the degree to which it is a lovely day for a walk to the polling station increases the chance of the apathetic voting, rather than there being a cohort that only votes if it is dry.

 

[William of Walworth]

brogdale : There's always mixed messages with weather, and ever changing ones as you know. But the mean trend looks like being towards drier weather from about Thursday (just need one exceptional, and wetter, run from GFS, which only came up to annoy me, to get contradicted in later runs. That one looked a lot like an outlier to me though)

Right, back to politics

 

[brogdale]

I thought it was correlatory, rather then binary. As in, the degree to which it is a lovely day for a walk to the polling station increases the chance of the apathetic voting, rather than there being a cohort that only votes if it is dry.

Whether or not covers it! Geddit?

 

[brogdale]

brogdale : There's always mixed messages with weather, and ever changing ones as you know. But the mean trend looks like being towards drier weather from about Thursday (just need one exceptional, and wetter, run from GFS, which only came up to annoy me, to get contradicted in later runs. That one looked a lot like an outlier to me though)

Right, back to politics

Stick to the FAX charts...they have the human input of the Exeter brains...better than the Yank's NWP modelling.

 

[treelover]

How many people have already voted by postal vote and what % are pensioners?

 

[stethoscope]

My dad just came out with 'Clegg for PM... thats Post Mortem'

 

[billy_bob]

My dad just came out with 'Clegg for PM... thats Post Mortem'

Let's hope so.

PM can also stand for 'Powdery Mildew', an unpleasant fungus clinging to the side of other plants.

Less appropriately for Clegg:
'Polymitosis' - a disease a common symptom of which is difficulty swallowing
'Perpetual Motion' - going on forever seems unlikely in this case...

 

[Quartz]

Labour Uncut are reporting that postal votes are breaking for the Tories.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/0...-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/

I've not heard of them before but I'm surprised postal votes are being opened now rather than on Thursday.

 

[two sheds]

that may change, they haven't got mine yet.

 

[bi0boy]

Labour Uncut are reporting that postal votes are breaking for the Tories.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/0...-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/

I've not heard of them before but I'm surprised postal votes are being opened now rather than on Thursday.

They aren't being opened, but I think they can see who has voted and cross-check that with canvassing data.

 

[DotCommunist]

They aren't being opened, but I think they can see who has voted and cross-check that with canvassing data.

the article says they aren't suppposed to beopened but every one does and reports the info back to HQ's. To which I say Jimmy Hill

 

[krink]

Postal votes are being opened as I just did a session. No idea if they count the ones opened now after the polls close or before. I suspect they'd all be counted together.

 

[Tankus]

 

[krink]

Just for info, we open the envelopes, take out the votes put them into piles for local and general but its all face down so nobody mooching about the hall could tally anything.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

 

[treelover]

Labour insiders familiar with the latest figures have told Uncut that the picture for Labour in marginal seats, where it is fighting the Tories, is almost uniformly grim.

Seats that canvass returns had suggested were strong prospects for gains are much more finely balanced and those that were close are swinging heavily to the Tories.

The tartan scare is working with the fear of McLabour shifting large numbers of wavering Lib Dems and Ukippers into the Tory column.

National opinion polls and Lord Ashcroft’s last swathe of constituency polling have seemed to indicate a shift towards the Tories recently, but Labour insiders say the effect on the ground in marginals is much bigger than picked up in polls so far.

That Labour Uncut article is basically saying Labour have lost the election, is it a Blairite site?

 

[treelover]

According to the electoral commission postal votes have not yet been counted. So I’m calling bullshit

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/electoral_commission_pdf_file/0010/108937/NAW-Postal-voting.pdf

From the comments, is this article Blairite spin?

 

[Pickman's model]

From the comments, is this article Blairite spin?

no, that's a pdf from the electoral commission.

 

[Pickman's model]

That Labour Uncut article is basically saying Labour have lost the election, is it a Blairite site?

why not read on and see?

 

[Pickman's model]

Weather update.
This is the first chance to have a look at the UKMO's (human interpreted) FAX Charts for Thursday the 7th...

Some occluded (probably decaying) fronts and the odd trough in a fairly slack, coolish NWly airstream. Pretty non-descript for the most part. Bits and pieces of cloud, bits of rain on and off for some...but no game-changer.

Not 'tory', nor 'Labour' weather. A tie!

lib dem weather

 

[brogdale]

lib dem weather

Where on that map does it suggest such a shower of cunts?

 

[Pickman's model]

Where on that map does it suggest such a shower of cunts?

"no game-changer"

 

[William of Walworth]

Why is that Labour Uncut stuff on this particular thread? Surely should be on the polling thread.

 

[jakethesnake]

Blimey, you're right. I thought that link was going to be about his interview in Saturday's Guardian, which IMO was actually half-way-reasonable-ish (in parts).

But a carved stone??? Ridiculous to everyone, or just ridiculous to us Urban types? A bit unsure tbh how it might come across electorally/generally. Like you I suspect badly though

He should have gone for having them as tattoos complete with misspellings and inappropriate apostrophes.

 

[bi0boy]

Why is that Labour Uncut stuff on this particular thread? Surely should be on the polling thread.

Because it's about the general election, and it's not about an opinion poll?

 

[treelover]

It looks like unsubstantiated bile from the Blairites, going by comments on the article, commenters also point the illegality of what L/L is describing.

 

[William of Walworth]

Because it's about the general election, and it's not about an opinion poll?

Maybe, but it needs polling-knowledge-based analysis IMO. Canvass returns are 'polls' of sorts.

(Sort of get your point, but there's a conceptual overlap there IMO).