General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

[Roadkill]

The BNP were getting bigger, they were getting more organised and they were getting better funded. But it all imploded as far right parties in the UK tend to do.

That's true, but tbh saying that right wing parties tend to implode strikes me as a bit complacent: there's nothing to say they will implode. In any case, I don't think the BNP would ever have been able to attract the wealthy donors and impeccably Tory defectors that UKIP have, and frankly for some potential voters they were still saddled with the association with the likes of the National Front, in a way the Kippers aren't.

In many ways UKIP’s future isn’t in its own hands. How Cameron handles the EU negotiations and subsequent referendum will be the key determinant.

Let’s say, for example, the UK votes to leave the EU (unlikely in my opinion, but entirely possible) what happens to UKIP then? They’re a busted flush.

If Cameron secures a deal acceptable to the right of his party and backs staying in (supported by all the other main parties bar UKIP) and we do vote stay in the EU, as I think we will by a pretty large majority, I’m not sure they’ll be any appetite at all for another referendum shortly after.

Especially as I think the campaign will be a pretty bruising affair, just as it was in Scotland.

Can't disagree with much of that, except that I reckon Cameron will be very hard pressed indeed to come up with EU deal enough to shut all of the backbenchers up, since the more swivel-eyed ones won't be content with anything short of Brexit. Potentially that could help UKIP, if they end up picking up more defectors.

I have my doubts that the UK will vote to leave the EU too, but IMO it could well be close, and although you may well be right that there'd be no appetite for another referendum soon after a first, like the Scottish referendum it may well serve to keep the issue on the boil. Again, that would probably work in their favour. You're right that a vote to leave would pull the rug out from underneath them. Tbh though that's a scenario I'd rather not even think about right now!

 

[littlebabyjesus]

One of the lessons of the election is that, for the time being at least, a Tory defecting to UKIP is likely to lose his/her seat. Only Carswell remains and he benefitted from a strong personal vote.

While one or two Tory MPs may jump ship as a matter of principle over Europe, facing with losing their seat, many others will prefer to sit tight, waiting to see which way the wind blows with regard to the referendum.

My money is, and remains, on a fairly decisive vote in favour of staying in.

tbh, I would have thought a couple of really awkward tories jumping to UKIP over this might suit Cameron just fine.

 

[Roadkill]

tbh, I would have thought a couple of really awkward tories jumping to UKIP over this might suit Cameron just fine.

Not with such a slender majority.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Oh god.

He's got 231 seats, so can afford to lose five and keep a majority, yes?

 

[Roadkill]

Oh god.

He's got 231 seats, so can afford to lose five and keep a majority, yes?

He's got 331: 326 is a majority. Major's lead was reckoned to be uncomfortably thin back in the early 90s, and that was 21...

 

[smokedout]

But how many would actually publish? Half the press have the Tories in their pockets

the other half?

 

[happie chappie]

Can't disagree with much of that, except that I reckon Cameron will be very hard pressed indeed to come up with EU deal enough to shut all of the backbenchers up, since the more swivel-eyed ones won't be content with anything short of Brexit. Potentially that could help UKIP, if they end up picking up more defectors.

I have my doubts that the UK will vote to leave the EU too, but IMO it could well be close, and although you may well be right that there'd be no appetite for another referendum soon after a first, like the Scottish referendum it may well serve to keep the issue on the boil. Again, that would probably work in their favour. You're right that a vote to leave would pull the rug out from underneath them. Tbh though that's a scenario I'd rather not even think about right now!

I think he will secure a deal for several reasons, not least because the rest of the EU (especially Germany and France) will want to do all they reasonably can to keep Britain in. It may be game of chicken, but there will be a deal on the table. Of that I have no doubt.

As to the right of the party - some will want us to leave no matter what. But they will be a minority of a minority of both MPs and political parties.

The new intake?

Not sure how Euro sceptic they are but if Cameron and Osborne are such slick political operators as people say then Central Office would have been vetting candidates to ensure any potential trouble-makers were weeded out before they got anywhere near the ballot paper.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think he will secure a deal for several reasons, not least because the rest of the EU (especially Germany and France) will want to do all they reasonably can to keep Britain in. It may be game of chicken, but there will be a deal on the table. Of that I have no doubt.

As to the right of the party - some will want us to leave no matter what. But they will be a minority of a minority of both MPs and political parties.

The new intake?

Not sure how Euro sceptic they are but if Cameron and Osborne are such slick political operators as people say then Central Office would have been vetting candidates to ensure any potential trouble-makers were weeded out before they got anywhere near the ballot paper.

if there were apparently 200 eurosceptics among the tory ranks favouring a british exit in october i doubt their number has been greatly diminished by the increased number of tory mps now.

 

[Roadkill]

I think he will secure a deal for several reasons, not least because the rest of the EU (especially Germany and France) will want to do all they reasonably can to keep Britain in. It may be game of chicken, but there will be a deal on the table. Of that I have no doubt.

As to the right of the party - some will want us to leave no matter what. But they will be a minority of a minority of both MPs and political parties.

Oh yes, I'm sure a deal of some sort will be worked out, but as you say, some will want us to leave regardless of how 'good' it is. There don't need to be all that many of them to cause Cameron a headache with a majority of 5.

The new intake?

Not sure how Euro sceptic they are but if Cameron and Osborne are such slick political operators as people say then Central Office would have been vetting candidates to ensure any potential trouble-makers were weeded out before they got anywhere near the ballot paper.

True, I suspect, though hopefully a few will show a bit of independence. In the end, fractious backbenchers are the only real hope we've got for fucking up Cameron's second term - for the next couple of years anyway.

 

[Duncan2]

Europe would seem to be the only thing that now stands between the Tories and absolute power.Some of them are bound to go for it (Brexit I mean)

 

[Pickman's model]

Europe would seem to be the only thing that now stands between the Tories and absolute power.Some of them are bound to go for it (Brexit I mean)

not to mention the queen.

 

[happie chappie]

if there were apparently 200 eurosceptics among the tory ranks favouring a british exit in october i doubt their number has been greatly diminished by the increased number of tory mps now.

Possibly - although the figure of 200 would depend on the question they were actually asked in the survey (we now know - opinion polls can be very wrong). And then there's the type of deal Cameron will secure. That's bound to chip away at the softer end of the Euro sceptic block. And there are always other ways of buying off/threatening members of the awkward squad.

That's not to say it will be all plain sailing for Cameron as Europe is, and always has been, a fractious issue for the party.

But Cameron is in a much stronger position now to secure a deal and win a referendum than even he dared hope 24 hours ago.

eta - it appears that the figure wasn't actually a poll but an estimate by Bill Cash. I'm not sure how much credence I'd give to it.

It was also the figure in October when, as the article suggests, many sitting Tory MPs were worried about losing their seats to UKIP. In the end none did. That may have done quite a bit to calm nerves. I suspect that figure may have changed.

 

[Duncan2]

Europe and the queen obviously and not necessarily in that order.

 

[Pickman's model]

 

[Dogsauce]

Let’s say, for example, the UK votes to leave the EU (unlikely in my opinion, but entirely possible) what happens to UKIP then? They’re a busted flush.

Did a No vote in the indyref render the SNP a busted flush? If UKIP play a strong role in calling for an exit and get people on board for their cause, these people might stick with them afterwards whichever way the result goes. That could be a significant movement.

 

[Pickman's model]

Did a No vote in the indyref render the SNP a busted flush? If UKIP play a strong role in calling for an exit and get people on board for their cause, these people might stick with them afterwards whichever way the result goes. That could be a significant movement.

let's see where ukip are in two years time.

 

[treelover]

Osborne, a man who imo really can be given the epitaph, evil, is to be given the 'honorific' title of First Secretary Of State.

 

[JHE]

Osborne, a man who imo really can be given the epitaph, evil...

not yet. he has to die first

 

[prunus]

not yet. he has to die first

From your lips to god's ears.

 

[Corax]

View attachment 71285

Yeah, and there'll be no top-down reorganisation of the NHS last time apparently.

What a cunt.

(him, not you PM!)

 

[Corax]

Osborne, a man who imo really can be given the epitaph, evil, is to be given the 'honorific' title of First Secretary Of State.

Won't him and IDS have to fight for that title, or will it be a demonic coalition?

 

[coley]

Of course, politics is shite. But the idea that you work out which party will be better for you personally by doing a calculation based on their declared policies isn't politics as I understand it, not if your calculation doesn't even consider what those policies will also do to others.

The two are linked, of course - it is precisely this kind of apolitical voter that both parties aim their campaigns at.

TBF where was the party that offered genuine alternatives to austerity? who offered to protect the weak and vulnerable, given both sides commitment to "hard working families" with no mention of those who haven't got a hope of joining that group?
We had the option of Tory or Tory light ( I will not use the word 'lite')
Given the limited options open to voters and Sturgeons comments about holding the balance of power, Labour got what they deserved, "the fuck you jack, I'm alright mentality" is alive and kicking here in the UK.
When Labour gives up on the middle classes and being part of the metropolitan elite, when they pledge to renationalise the utilities and railways then they'll get me vote.

 

[coley]

I don't think she wants a referendum at the moment. I think she wants full budgetary control to prove that the country can fund itself first. I suspect she'll get that and at the same time the Tories will pass the law that bans Scottish MPs voting on English only laws.

They now seem to have changed their minds on that, they no longer want full fiscal autonomy but fiscal independence, no prizes for guessing why they have moved the goal posts.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

TBF where was the party that offered genuine alternatives to austerity? who offered to protect the weak and vulnerable,?.

The Socialist Party candidate in my constituency did.

He lost his deposit.

My point was a little different - not that you should vote Labour or whatever if you're anti-austerity, but that you should not in any circumstances consider voting Tory.

 

[JHE]

From your lips to god's ears.

My aunt, a Dominican nun, explained to me that God answers all prayers, but often the answer is 'no'.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Won't him and IDS have to fight for that title, or will it be a demonic coalition?

I thought we'd settled that IDS was criminally stupid and did evil things as a result, while Osborne is actually fucking scum (who probably eggs IDS on)

 

[ViolentPanda]

Yeah, it will be a test of the tory party. Lots of new faces since the 90s, of course, so there may be less vehement anti-Europe feeling. Don't know. How many of the firm anti-EUers are there left?

Given the upswell in anti-EU support in the party (did you not keep half an ear open to the Tory conference for the last couple of years?), I'd say that at least a third of the Parliamentary Conservative Party are openly anti, and possibly another third are cryptos who'll out themselves if the anti-Euro bus looks worth riding. Back in the '90s there was still a functioning (though shrinking) "one nation" wing of Conservatism. This time round, the wing barely exists.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Given the upswell in anti-EU support in the party (did you not keep half an ear open to the Tory conference for the last couple of years?), I'd say that at least a third of the Parliamentary Conservative Party are openly anti, and possibly another third are cryptos who'll out themselves if the anti-Euro bus looks worth riding. Back in the '90s there was still a functioning (though shrinking) "one nation" wing of Conservatism. This time round, the wing barely exists.

Ok. It was a genuine q - I have lost track of the crazy wing of the tory party. Used to know a few of the faces.

It may only be schadenfreude on my part to be pleased if this is true. Not totally sure that it helps us.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Ok. It was a genuine q - I have lost track of the crazy wing of the tory party. Used to know a few of the faces.

It may only be schadenfreude on my part to be pleased if this is true. Not totally sure that it helps us.

Part of why people don't get the anti-EU thing, is that proponents tend to not be as openly crazy and LOUD as Cash, Gorman and the rest of Major's awkward squad were. They've even focused to some degree on trying to make a political case that isn't constructed around prejudice, although as it appears to in part be constructed around a grovelling Atlanticism, I'm not sure it's much better than the arguments made by the bonkers wing.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Why did you vote Tory?

Have fun