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General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

Cameron will deeply regret being boxed into such a tight timetable for the Brexit ref. The 'bastards' will keep their heads down until that's done and dusted.

I'm not sure about that. Europe isn't the only potential faultline, and there are plenty of loons on the Tory back benches who could make trouble. Fingers crossed they start soon.
 
One of two things will happen:
1) There'll be civil war between the UKIP honchos such as Carswell, Akers and Nuttall, and the party will be reduced to a handful of non-cooperating ineffective rumps, or
2) They'll have already formulated some kind of succession plan that utilises the various UKIP supporters as a form of pressure group a la The Cuntyside Alliance, and will continue using their core demographic to fight local and by-elections.

Farage also hasn't ruled out standing for the UKIP leadership again later in the year.

eta> as mentioned above.
 
I'm not sure about that. Europe isn't the only potential faultline, and there are plenty of loons on the Tory back benches who could make trouble. Fingers crossed they start soon.

They won't be able to resist. I'm betting Cameron is already wishing he'd taken a cleaver to the 1922 Committee when he had the chance.
Me, I'm rather glad that he bottled it.
 
But how many would actually publish? Half the press have the Tories in their pockets

You don't have to publish in order to have leverage. Back in the day, the Hitler-loving Rothermere kept files on hundreds of MPs of all parties, and let the politicians know it. Their guilty consciences ensured that he always had fresh insider dirt to fuel his stories.
 
We'll see. I would definitely contend that they would not have done what they've just done without Farage. And as far as the vast majority of people are concerned, UKIP is Farage. I doubt many people outside of hard-core supporters or political saddoes like us on here could name a single other. Perhaps 'that Tory changeling with the weird eyes'.

Farage was extremely effective and energetic. Perhaps they will find someone else who can be effective, but I don't think it's a given, and if there is some kind of in/out referendum on the EU (which I suspect would vote 'in' by a bit of a margin) then UKIP may be seen as an irrelevance at the next election, campaigning on the basis of something that everyone knows won't happen.


Diane James is a contender, doesn't come across as bonkers.
 
One reason why the Tories may have won, just been waiting in the rain for a taxi watching the cars go to the posher parts of the city and then the Peaks, not exaggerating at times there were six or seven BMW's (the really expensive ones) Chelsea tractrors or sports cars in a line and with about every 5th car being one of them, some people have done very very well the last five years.
 
One of the things I find slightly odd is the talk of this as a "huge victory" for the Conservatives. In the context of the election, but they've barely got a majority of, what, five? That's hardly an unrestricted mandate. Plus it was probably more down to the opposition than their own skill.

They'll no doubt get support from across the aisle on certain things, but will be interesting (and/or terrifying) to see just how easy they have it.
 
One reason why the Tories may have won, just been waiting in the rain for a taxi watching the cars go to the posher parts of the city and then the Peaks, not exaggerating at times there were six or seven BMW's (the really expensive ones) Chelsea tractrors or sports cars in a line and with about every 5th car being one of them, some people have done very very well the last five years.
Some have done well, no doubt about it. Anyone who has a mortgage dating pre-credit crunch has often hundreds more in their pockets each month from lower interest rates. Anyone with employees has been able to suppress wages below inflation. Those who own stuff - various forms of capital - are doing well, and the Tories will always represent the interests of those who own stuff.
 
Labour with David Miliband instead of Ed would have done much better.
Public image = votes.
Fickle public.

Only if everyone's politics are absolutely shite and there's nothing else to go on, like it's feckin x factor. The SNP have just vaporised Scottish labour out of existence in their safest seats , with absolutely massive swings to previous unknowns, it's a genuine political revolution . Neither Alex Salmond or Sturgeon are candidates from central casting . They're just ordinary joe soaps with firm anti austerity and anti Trident platform .And they haven't been doing anything remotely fancy or gimmicky .

Their politics certainly aren't even remotely radical, despite being well to the left of labour . And they've politicised and mobilised their country's people to the extent they've given the Westminster establishment the biggest kicking ever , not just beating them but slaughtering them like a horde of genghis khans meanest versus some hapless peasants .. They've definitively been told to fuck the fuck off . For good by the looks of things .

In all honesty I'd be of the opinion it's irrelevant who's the next labour leader . It'll just be someone Cameron Osborne and Boris and their descendants are laughing at for the next 20 years . Or more .

The UK looks to be finished , and labour with it .
 
Only if everyone's politics are absolutely shite and there's nothing else to go on, like it's feckin x factor. .
tbh anyone umming and ahhing about whether to vote labour or tory in the week leading up to an election is someone with shite politics. It's someone with no politics, who completes those BBC-style questionnaires that show them how particular policies might affect their pockets, and votes according to the results. There are a fair few people like that - I was in the pub with one last night.
 
tbh anyone umming and ahhing about whether to vote labour or tory in the week leading up to an election is someone with shite politics.

Could it be that politics is shite? I can understand many people not seeing a lot of difference between labour and the Tories.
 
Could it be that politics is shite? I can understand many people not seeing a lot of difference between labour and the Tories.
Of course, politics is shite. But the idea that you work out which party will be better for you personally by doing a calculation based on their declared policies isn't politics as I understand it, not if your calculation doesn't even consider what those policies will also do to others.

The two are linked, of course - it is precisely this kind of apolitical voter that both parties aim their campaigns at.
 
Of course, politics is shite. But the idea that you work out which party will be better for you personally by doing a calculation based on their declared policies isn't politics as I understand it, not if your calculation doesn't even consider what those policies will also do to others.

The two are linked, of course - it is precisely this kind of apolitical voter that both parties aim their campaigns at.

But that IS neoliberal politics, basically? I guess we'll see more of it.
 
Of course, politics is shite. But the idea that you work out which party will be better for you personally by doing a calculation based on their declared policies isn't politics as I understand it, not if your calculation doesn't even consider what those policies will also do to others.

A decent electoral system would help.

Wonder if Sturgeon will put something in the SNP manifesto for 2016 about certain red lines that could hint hint trigger a new Indy ref. Something like trident. If Labour/Tory press ahead then they look like they'd rather have trident than the union. Neither has any sway North of the border so a big yes to independence.
 
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