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General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

Poi E said:
A decent electoral system would help.

Wonder if Sturgeon will put something in the SNP manifesto for 2016 about certain red lines that could hint hint trigger a new Indy ref. Something like trident. If Labour/Tory press ahead then they look like they'd rather have trident than the union. Neither has any sway North of the border so a big yes to independence.
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On what authority can she do that?
 
My neighbour who is a fantastic guy, 80s' graduate but full time cleaner, last week said he wasn't sure he would vote, didn't know much about the parties, wasn't happy about Milliband banning Islamaphobia, etc, and no he is not a racist/xenophobe, yet he would have voted labour of green when pushed, lots of potentials just don't vote.
 
Wonder what would have happened in the Scottish ref if it had been scheduled for next year rather than this? Yes, okay, Labour would probably have held onto a few more seats in Scotland yesterday, but the ref itself might have been closer. Pointless speculation, admittedly.
 
Roadkill said:
They've got a much more coherent organisation, much more money, a much more identifiable brand, a solid voter base and a sense of momentum. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility it could all fall apart, but my guess is that unless they choose a complete idiot as their next leader then they're here to stay.
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Exactly the same could have been of the BNP a few years ago. They’re now an electoral irrelevance, largely supplanted by UKIP.

I think there will always be a space for a party to the right of the Tories in UK politics but it often ends in failure and recriminations, to be replaced by another right wing party which in turn eventually implodes.

It remains to be seen if UKIP’s vote holds up in the years to come. The 2017 EU referendum will be a defining moment for the party.
 
Poi E said:
A decent electoral system would help.

Wonder if Sturgeon will put something in the SNP manifesto for 2016 about certain red lines that could hint hint trigger a new Indy ref. Something like trident. If Labour/Tory press ahead then they look like they'd rather have trident than the union. Neither has any sway North of the border so a big yes to independence.
Click to expand...

I don't think she wants a referendum at the moment. I think she wants full budgetary control to prove that the country can fund itself first. I suspect she'll get that and at the same time the Tories will pass the law that bans Scottish MPs voting on English only laws.
 
happie chappie said:
It remains to be seen if UKIP’s vote holds up in the years to come. The 2017 EU referendum will be a defining moment for the party.
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If they replace Farage with Suzanne Evans I could see them doing quite well. Farage was a dog whistle she is way more user friendly.
 
bemused said:
If they replace Farage with Suzanne Evans I could see them doing quite well. Farage was a dog whistle she is way more user friendly.
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If people were attracted to Farage’s “bloke in the pub” image (and I think they were) I’m not sure whether Evans will do any better.

In fact I think she’ll do worse as I doubt she’s as media friendly.

In many ways Farage was the story as much as UKIP’s policies and he will be a very hard act to follow.

Populist leader + populist policies = electoral success.
 
happie chappie said:
Exactly the same could have been of the BNP a few years ago. They’re now an electoral irrelevance, largely supplanted by UKIP.

I think there will always be a space for a party to the right of the Tories in UK politics but it often ends in failure and recriminations, to be replaced by another right wing party which in turn eventually implodes.

It remains to be seen if UKIP’s vote holds up in the years to come. The 2017 EU referendum will be a defining moment for the party.
Click to expand...

Tbh I think the BNP comparison ceased to be useful a few years ago. These days UKIP are bigger, better organised and better funded than the BNP ever were, and they appeal to a wider cross-section of people as well. It may be that they will come apart in the next couple of years, but I doubt it. It's true that the EU referendum is important for them and if the result is a resounding 'stay in' then that might well damage them badly, but any other result is likely to work in their favour. After all, the Scottish independence referendum should indicate that a close referendum result needn't settle an issue one way or t'other.

Meanwhile, an expat mate of mine put the election result crudely but accurate on Facebook earlier: 'I'm seeing loads of Brits talking about lubing up ready for a shafting. You won't get the chance to lube up: the Tories are going in dry.'
 
Roadkill said:
Tbh I think the BNP comparison ceased to be useful a few years ago. These days UKIP are bigger, better organised and better funded than the BNP ever were, and they appeal to a wider cross-section of people as well. It may be that they will come apart in the next couple of years, but I doubt it. It's true that the EU referendum is important for them and if the result is a resounding 'stay in' then that might well damage them badly, but any other result is likely to work in their favour. After all, the Scottish independence referendum should indicate that a close referendum result needn't settle an issue one way or t'other.'
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The BNP were getting bigger, they were getting more organised and they were getting better funded. But it all imploded as far right parties in the UK tend to do.

In many ways UKIP’s future isn’t in its own hands. How Cameron handles the EU negotiations and subsequent referendum will be the key determinant.

Let’s say, for example, the UK votes to leave the EU (unlikely in my opinion, but entirely possible) what happens to UKIP then? They’re a busted flush.

If Cameron secures a deal acceptable to the right of his party and backs staying in (supported by all the other main parties bar UKIP) and we do vote stay in the EU, as I think we will by a pretty large majority, I’m not sure they’ll be any appetite at all for another referendum shortly after.

Especially as I think the campaign will be a pretty bruising affair, just as it was in Scotland.
 
I wonder how many Scottish seats Miliband lost the other day when he said he wouldn't work with Sturgeon? That made a lot of Scots so angry...I'm sure that boosted their turnout.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Sorry, that was a reply to happie chappie. I assumed they were talking about Cameron getting some kind of concession from the EU in return for staying in.
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when replying to someone it helps to quote them in case someone's been really fucking inconvenient and posted while you were typing, thus making it look like you're responding to someone else.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
I guess the fun comes if Cameron does not secure a deal acceptable to the right of his party. Rather likely, I think.
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Whatever deal Cameron secures it will never be good enough to satisfy the hard-line Euro sceptics but I think it will be good enough to satisfy enough Tory MPs for him to campaign to stay in a reformed EU, which is his default position.

That doesn’t mean they’ll not be internal splits in the Tory party (and even some resignations amongst junior ministers and/or a few defections to UKIP) but he’s clever enough to engineer a deal that will satisfy enough of his own backbenchers to carry the day.

His real difficulty would have occurred if he hadn’t secured a majority and was held hostage to a right wing caucus who has never liked him.

Now he’s the returning hero in the eyes of almost everyone in the party and, for the time being at least, he can do no wrong in their eyes.
 
happie chappie said:
Whatever deal Cameron secures it will never be good enough to satisfy the hard-line Euro sceptics but I think it will be good enough to satisfy enough Tory MPs for him to campaign to stay in a reformed EU, which is his default position.

That doesn’t mean they’ll not be internal splits in the Tory party (and even some resignations amongst junior ministers and/or a few defections to UKIP) but he’s clever enough to engineer a deal that will satisfy enough of his own backbenchers to carry the day.

His real difficulty would have occurred if he hadn’t secured a majority and was held hostage to a right wing caucus who has never liked him.

Now he’s the returning hero in the eyes of almost everyone in the party and, for the time being at least, he can do no wrong in their eyes.
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yeh. people could go to ukip. but both mark reckless and douglas carswell have really set down a precedent other defectors may find it hard to ignore, resigning to force a by-election.
 
happie chappie said:
Whatever deal Cameron secures it will never be good enough to satisfy the hard-line Euro sceptics but I think it will be good enough to satisfy enough Tory MPs for him to campaign to stay in a reformed EU, which is his default position..
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Yeah, it will be a test of the tory party. Lots of new faces since the 90s, of course, so there may be less vehement anti-Europe feeling. Don't know. How many of the firm anti-EUers are there left?
 
Pickman's model said:
yeh. people could go to ukip. but both mark reckless and douglas carswell have really set down a precedent other defectors may find it hard to ignore, resigning to force a by-election.
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One of the lessons of the election is that, for the time being at least, a Tory defecting to UKIP is likely to lose his/her seat. Only Carswell remains and he benefitted from a strong personal vote.

While one or two Tory MPs may jump ship as a matter of principle over Europe, facing with losing their seat, many others will prefer to sit tight, waiting to see which way the wind blows with regard to the referendum.

My money is, and remains, on a fairly decisive vote in favour of staying in.
 
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