Well, yeah. I was mainly wondering if they'd read & misinterpreted something, or if it was just their own skewed logic that coughing and spreads infection, so no coughs or sneezes = no infection
General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat
- Thread starter phillm
- Start date
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes, and I had a lot more sympathy for that level of understanding 7 months ago than I have now that we've had this extended period of learning. A period which should have laid waste to many of the oversimplifications, including plenty that various governments, health authorities etc were also more likely to cling to in the early months but have long since moved on from.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Challenge trials: The volunteers offering to be infected with coronavirus
BBC medical editor Fergus Walsh speaks to people volunteering to be infected with coronavirus to help find a vaccine.
www.bbc.co.uk
Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
Our village is having a yard sale today. Place is full of people, no masks, wandering in and out of each others' driveways/gardens to lean over and/or touch all the stuff. 
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
That was 4. Something else
I think that's probably most likely.
/Grabs back of fag packet and hits the ONS site to look at the figures/
There's currently about 1,000 cases per day being reported.
The current numbers of deaths is not completely clear - the official daily figure has been between 2 and 16 this week, but we know the ONS figure will be higher. Let's guess at around an average of 15 deaths per day.
That's about 67 infections per death every day.
During the peak week in April an average of around 1,300 per day were dying.
There are, of course, no figures for infections during the peak as the government gave up testing outside hospitals when things were really taking off (partly because they didn't have the capacity and partly because herd immunity). But if the ratio has remained constant that would mean a jaw dropping 87,100 people were being infected every day at the peak.
Can that be right?
Well, according to an Imperial College study "slightly under 6% of the population may have antibodies for the virus by the end of June – an estimated 3.4 million people." For all those people to have been infected in the 5 months from February to June, there would be an average infection rate of around 22,333 people per day. That infection rate wouldn't be constant - not many would be getting infected at the beginning of February, loads would be getting infected in mid-March and the numbers would drop significantly after lockdown. That means the 87,100 infections per day figure, or one even higher, at the peak is quite believable.
So yeah, if I haven't completely fucked up my maths (and I did get a U in my maths A-level) it looks like the numbers do support your theory.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Thanks for doing some calculations!
I suppose there is also further wiggle room in those sorts of calculations because we would probably expect a difference in the level of death at times when the virus is sweeping in a big way through vulnerable populations such as care home residents and already hospitalised patients.
I suppose there is also further wiggle room in those sorts of calculations because we would probably expect a difference in the level of death at times when the virus is sweeping in a big way through vulnerable populations such as care home residents and already hospitalised patients.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I am displeased to see stories like this one:
www.coventrytelegraph.net
Because of claims like this:
Data from Spain shows an increase in hospitalisations and deaths. So it really pisses me off when doctors claim otherwise. I havent gotten around to looking at data from France yet, but I will.
'Coronavirus getting less angry' says Mids doctor
Dr Ron Daniels is an intensivist based at Good Hope Hospital
Because of claims like this:
Data from Spain shows an increase in hospitalisations and deaths. So it really pisses me off when doctors claim otherwise. I havent gotten around to looking at data from France yet, but I will.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Blimey, the Isle of Man doesn't mess around when it comes to covid quarantine rules, returning travellers must self-isolate for 14 days or face a fine of up to £10,000 or three months in prison. .
But, as they haven't had any new cases of covid since 20 May, it's understandable they want to protect the 'Manx bubble'.
www.theguardian.com
But, as they haven't had any new cases of covid since 20 May, it's understandable they want to protect the 'Manx bubble'.
Three jailed on Isle of Man for breaking Covid quarantine rules
Sentences handed to travellers returning from UK who failed to self-isolate for 14 days
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Just by Newington green there's a garden sporting a British army and royal navy flags. For weeks there was a rainbow flag in the garden with a union jack with NHS on. But I think someone told them the rainbow meant something rather different from what they thought!
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
No one's seen a Manx bubble since 1937Blimey, the Isle of Man doesn't mess around when it comes to covid quarantine rules, returning travellers must self-isolate for 14 days or face a fine of up to £10,000 or three months in prison. .
But, as they haven't had any new cases of covid since 20 May, it's understandable they want to protect the 'Manx bubble'.
Three jailed on Isle of Man for breaking Covid quarantine rules
Sentences handed to travellers returning from UK who failed to self-isolate for 14 days
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Doctors are the same as the rest of us, there are 'loons and innumerate larrikins among them.I am displeased to see stories like this one:
'Coronavirus getting less angry' says Mids doctor
Dr Ron Daniels is an intensivist based at Good Hope Hospital
Because of claims like this:
Data from Spain shows an increase in hospitalisations and deaths. So it really pisses me off when doctors claim otherwise. I havent gotten around to looking at data from France yet, but I will.
elbows
Well-Known Member
At least it has motivated me to zoom in on data and spend hours hunched over a spreadsheet.
I am now tracking regional hospital data for Spain, France and Italy, as well as the UK.
So far some places dont have rises in such data, some have tentative rises that I wouldnt highlight unless they carry on in the same direction for another week or so, while certain regions of Spain show increases that are more worthy of reporting on at this stage.
I'm not talking about levels that are comparable to what happened during the first peak, but rather rises that are still obvious compared to the summer trough. I'm hoping that by studying them in detail I will have a better sense of what early signs I should look for in UK data. eg knowing when it is safe to report a genuine and sustained rise as opposed to going off half-cocked over a blip.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
there are three things in life which are certain, death, taxes, and the johnson administration's lamentable ability to fuck this up.
elbows
Well-Known Member
For the last week or so the fucking Daily Mail has gone into the same mode over Johnsons education failings as they did in the John Major era when they were having trouble coming to terms with the loss of Thatcher.
Complete with terrible cartoon where the cartoonist doesnt have the benefit of blaming pandemic education disruption for their crap output.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i rest my case. no matter what the government does, you can be sure they'll cock it up.
education - health - brexit etc etc ad nauseam, they'll cock it all up
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Been in six places for a drink or meal now in the last few weeks. Not a single one either mentioned test and trace, or made any effort to make sure it was clear with obvious posters.
How much fucking effort is it to mention it when you're ordering, or to have a card on the table reminding you?! Just a joke.
How much fucking effort is it to mention it when you're ordering, or to have a card on the table reminding you?! Just a joke.
Numbers
an ting!
The pub we were in twice over the weekend had a pretty good process and it felt really safe. You had to check in on arrival, i.e. text a number with your contact details so they are confirmed straight away.
We sat in the garden and it was 2 metres or more even between tables, and was then table service only. There was a one way system for the loo and hand sanitiser everywhere, the staff all wore masks at all times.
Felt good to be out and feel comfortable doing so.
We sat in the garden and it was 2 metres or more even between tables, and was then table service only. There was a one way system for the loo and hand sanitiser everywhere, the staff all wore masks at all times.
Felt good to be out and feel comfortable doing so.
Going to see my cousin today. I've been putting it off but she's really struggling with various crap and I've sorted a route that avoids the tube and won't be staying overnight like I usually would.
Am I being ridiculously paranoid if I wear a mask the entire time I'm in her house and bring disinfectant wipes to clean stuff before/after touching it? She has five kids, brother & partner living there and going out to work at separate places, two household members have had appts at different hospitals in the last week, one kid's just got back from holiday with their dad & his (not cohabiting) partner, and tbh I doubt any of them have been sticking to social distancing / other measures all that closely. I'd rather be over- than undercautious but got a feeling it might cause issues with them, and it's hard to keep a hold of actual vs perceived risk and what is sensible when everyone's reactions are so varied.
Am I being ridiculously paranoid if I wear a mask the entire time I'm in her house and bring disinfectant wipes to clean stuff before/after touching it? She has five kids, brother & partner living there and going out to work at separate places, two household members have had appts at different hospitals in the last week, one kid's just got back from holiday with their dad & his (not cohabiting) partner, and tbh I doubt any of them have been sticking to social distancing / other measures all that closely. I'd rather be over- than undercautious but got a feeling it might cause issues with them, and it's hard to keep a hold of actual vs perceived risk and what is sensible when everyone's reactions are so varied.
Is there any chance you can mostly be outside? That would solve a lot of potential problems.
In general though I think there is certainly a danger that wet wiping stuff down in their house could cause offence. I would just try and spend as much time as possible in very well ventilated spaces (outside ideally) and just be careful with what you touch and regularly wash your hands. Maybe tell them in advance where you're current level of comfort is at.
Yeah I'd planned to just stay out in the garden when I first said I'd visit but no way she'll be up for that in this weather.
Yeah, back at the end of June I met up with some friends in a park. They had brought a picnic which I wasn't expecting and it became a bit awkward when I politely declined to sit on their blanket. Unfortunately there is a real clash between what people perceive as manners and how people perceive risk from the virus.
The poor level of health literacy in the country really shows at a time like this, as if we should just all trust each other to not have the virus because its something that happens to other people or something.
Dunno where you're visiting but the forecast looks OK for the South East. I understand raining but if its just not sunshine dig some jumpers out. I think this is what I mean with communicating in advance about what you are happy with. If you're making the effort to go and see them it seems only reasonable that they respect the level of risk you are comfortable with.
Anju
Well-Known Member
Haven't seen this yet but sounds like it could be worth watching.
From Ai Weiwei, a Portrait of Wuhan’s Draconian Covid Lockdown
Not sure if it's available for free anywhere yet and £5 to stream seems excessive unless the money is going to the people who did the filming rather than the artist.
From Ai Weiwei, a Portrait of Wuhan’s Draconian Covid Lockdown
Not sure if it's available for free anywhere yet and £5 to stream seems excessive unless the money is going to the people who did the filming rather than the artist.
Doctor Carrot
Marxist Henchman
Blimey, the Isle of Man doesn't mess around when it comes to covid quarantine rules, returning travellers must self-isolate for 14 days or face a fine of up to £10,000 or three months in prison. .
But, as they haven't had any new cases of covid since 20 May, it's understandable they want to protect the 'Manx bubble'.
Three jailed on Isle of Man for breaking Covid quarantine rules
Sentences handed to travellers returning from UK who failed to self-isolate for 14 days
Good... Blimey this pandemic is really bringing out the authoritarian in me! But there needs to be enforcement. The reason why there's boat loads of twats wandering around these Isles, mask less and without a care in the world is because there is no enforcement.
Hellsbells
World's best procrastinator
Blimey, the Isle of Man doesn't mess around when it comes to covid quarantine rules, returning travellers must self-isolate for 14 days or face a fine of up to £10,000 or three months in prison. .
But, as they haven't had any new cases of covid since 20 May, it's understandable they want to protect the 'Manx bubble'.
Three jailed on Isle of Man for breaking Covid quarantine rules
Sentences handed to travellers returning from UK who failed to self-isolate for 14 days
I live on the Isle of man & am currently self isolating. Not ventured further than the front garden in 10 days. Wouldn't risk it!
ska invita
back on the other side
"
2h ago 16:22
A person on a poorly ventilated Chinese bus infected nearly two dozen other passengers with coronavirus even though many weren’t sitting close by, according to research that offers fresh evidence the disease can spread in the air.
I'm getting really scared of autumn/winter
2h ago 16:22
A person on a poorly ventilated Chinese bus infected nearly two dozen other passengers with coronavirus even though many weren’t sitting close by, according to research that offers fresh evidence the disease can spread in the air.
I'm getting really scared of autumn/winter
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Might have already been posted here or elsewhere but I like this page:
www.travellingtabby.com
UK Coronavirus Tracker
Current and historical data of the Coronavirus outbreak in the UK. Includes breakdowns by region, maps, charts, and more!
www.travellingtabby.com
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