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General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat

_Russ_ said:
Not sure how much weight to give SAGE's predictions these days, but I wonder what the knowledge base in here thinks of the scenarios in the link below?

A Warning About The Future Of Covid-19 From The Scientific Advisory Group For Emergencies Of The United Kingdom
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There's no predictions, just four different scenarios, because no one knows how it may mutant, anything could happen, all options need to be considered and planned for.

I hope for scenario four: 'The Delta variant mutates to become less harmful, similar to the four coronaviruses circulating today, such as the common cold.'
 
cupid_stunt said:
There's no predictions, just four different scenarios, because no one knows how it may mutant, anything could happen, all options need to be considered and planned for.

I hope for scenario four: 'The Delta variant mutates to become less harmful, similar to the four coronaviruses circulating today, such as the common cold.'
Click to expand...
But what do you think about the different levels of expectation giving for the 4 scenarios? they arent predictions you're right, but they do give them different likelihoods in their view
 
To throw the cat among the pigeons, the virologists I follow remain sceptical that the epidemiologists are convincingly able to remove the extrinsic factors and accurately say that any one variant is any more transmissible than any other - recently they even cast doubt on long-established claims of variations in infectivity of any viruses ...

 
I think that report is a realistic balanced assesment of where we are to date. Covid has most definitely got the upper hand it's not being controlled by vaccines, its mutating and evading and we all hope it will become a common cold like the other coronaviruses but I believe it could get worse too.
 
IC3D said:
I think that report is a realistic balanced assesment of where we are to date. Covid has most definitely got the upper hand it's not being controlled by vaccines, its mutating and evading and we all hope it will become a common cold like the other coronaviruses but I believe it could get worse too.
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What do you mean by "not being controlled by vaccines"? Do you not think that they might have something to do with the massive disparity in the ratio of infections to deaths?
 
IC3D said:
I think that report is a realistic balanced assesment of where we are to date. Covid has most definitely got the upper hand it's not being controlled by vaccines, its mutating and evading and we all hope it will become a common cold like the other coronaviruses but I believe it could get worse too.
Click to expand...
Vaccines alone were never going to "control" it.
 
gentlegreen said:
To throw the cat among the pigeons, the virologists I follow remain sceptical that the epidemiologists are convincingly able to remove the extrinsic factors and accurately say that any one variant is any more transmissible than any other - recently they even cast doubt on long-established claims of variations in infectivity of any viruses ...
Click to expand...
It can be hard to perfectly ascertain the role of one factor over another, and there can be a tendency to oversimplify. But ultimately I use dominance as a guide, and there have been several strains already which swept the globe and came to dominate. It is possible for a strain to take off by being in the right place at the right time, but I do tend to think that its reasonable to assume that dominant strains had specific advantages over strains that came before. And authorities are aware that they have to consider 'founder effect' and 'luck' as being potential factors, not every success for a strain of the virus can be presumed to be down to a real fitness advantage of that strain.
 
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_Russ_ said:
Not sure how much weight to give SAGE's predictions these days, but I wonder what the knowledge base in here thinks of the scenarios in the link below?

A Warning About The Future Of Covid-19 From The Scientific Advisory Group For Emergencies Of The United Kingdom
Click to expand...
I dont have much to add given that its a large subject that was in focus months ago.

Certainly some of the scenarios they describe are one of the many reasons why I favoured not letting millions of infections occur, since large numbers of infections means more opportunities to mutate. This point comes up a number of times in the SAGE paper.

And this is the original SAGE paper in question:

 
elbows said:
Certainly some of the scenarios they describe are one of the many reasons why I favoured not letting millions of infections occur, since large numbers of infections means more opportunities to mutate. This point comes up a number of times in the SAGE paper.
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At least they are attempting some forward planning. Rather than hastening things to protect landlord's and party donor's massive wealth.
 
There was also this bit from an October paper on possible options if they find they need to take other measures to bring numbers down.

The emergence of a new variant with (partial) vaccine escape properties (Figure 3). Much of the UK’s current population immunity comes from vaccination; a variant that could overcome this immunity would have a fitness advantage and could spread rapidly through the population. As the UK continues to vaccinate and individuals return to pre-COVID rates of mixing there is an increased evolutionary pressure for vaccine escape variants to emerge. Very high prevalence in schools combined with partly vaccinated 12-16 year olds in a highly mixing population provides ideal conditions for vaccine escape emergence.
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Very high prevalence in schools combined with partly vaccinated 12-16 year olds in a highly mixing population provides ideal conditions for vaccine escape emergence.
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This is a bit of a worry, giving some young uns a single dose could turn out to be a very bad decision (or have they changed the reccomendation for 12-15 year olds?
 
_Russ_ said:
This is a bit of a worry, giving some young uns a single dose could turn out to be a very bad decision (or have they changed the reccomendation for 12-15 year olds?
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They changed it for 16-18 year olds recently but its still early days for 12-15 year olds getting even a single dose. Maybe they will expand that to two doses when the time comes, not sure.

Its not hard to figure out the logic of various warnings expert groups have given about creating different sorts of ideal conditions for the virus to mutate at various stages of this pandemic. That stuff should show up on their theoretical risks radar and it usually has, but its much harder to know whether such things will actually come to pass or not. I've always felt the need to mention such stuff but I dont have a strong conviction about whether it will actually happen. Indeed I am posting less on the pandemic these days because for now at least it feels like the period where I was lucky enough to deliver prescient warnings and explanations may have passed. I dont think I've been able to do it since alerting people to the possibility of the July peak, and describing how what eventually became known as the 'pingdemic' would act in a similar way to a partial lockdown. Since then things seem much messier and I dont have a clear set of expectations that I can build upon with much certainty. Other than general and obvious stuff about winter.
 
teuchter said:
Not saying there's necessarily anything wrong with you not reading the thread thoroughly but I did already point this out a few posts up.

Just saying! :mad::mad:
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Not sure you understand how forums quite work yet. People normally read a post, react to a post, and then read the subsequent posts. In which case William wouldn't have seen your post before posting his post.

hth :)
 
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two sheds said:
Not sure you understand how forums quite work yet. People normally read a post, react to a post, and then read the subsequent posts. In which case William wouldn't have seen your post before posting his post.

hth :)
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"Normal" behaviour is not necessarily acceptable behaviour. Especially when we are talking about urban75 posters.

I would like to think I play a part in proactively raising standards in this regard.
 
I'm a few months too young to book my booster. Would be very happy if I could get it before going to Turkey to work on a project in a very cold place where I can't imagine there will be open windows/doors as was possible in the summer. Masks are obligatory there, which helps, but as we'll all be eating/living together, fairly sure any infection will get around quickly.
 
Interestingly, just got a text from my GP saying 'it's not too late for you or any other eligible people in your household to get your first/second/booster jab.' and including a booking link. They're also having some webinars for people with concerns about the vaccine (split up into concerns about kids 12+, people who're pregnant etc) and you can submit questions in advance.

I think my surgery is really good and glad they're trying to address what might be some of the reasons why the vaccination rate is v low round here.
 
Just been to Portimao and back on the train in Portugal . 45 mins e/w and everyone wearing a mask on both trips . Plenty of notices explains its compulsory and no mask no train .
 
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Numbers said:
When was it last over 50k?
I could Google but thought you/someone might know off the top of their head.
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About 5 weeks ago, but single day figures are fairly pointless, as they are up & down all time.

Plus, it's more important to watch hospital admissions & deaths, both still dropping, despite cases going up for around 3 weeks now. 🤷‍♂️
 
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