brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Thank goodness the BBC is warning us to watch out for them filthy, infected foreigners across the channel.Only just a couple of hundred over 44k new cases today #worldbeating
Thank goodness the BBC is warning us to watch out for them filthy, infected foreigners across the channel.Only just a couple of hundred over 44k new cases today #worldbeating
Not sure how much weight to give SAGE's predictions these days, but I wonder what the knowledge base in here thinks of the scenarios in the link below?
A Warning About The Future Of Covid-19 From The Scientific Advisory Group For Emergencies Of The United Kingdom
But what do you think about the different levels of expectation giving for the 4 scenarios? they arent predictions you're right, but they do give them different likelihoods in their viewThere's no predictions, just four different scenarios, because no one knows how it may mutant, anything could happen, all options need to be considered and planned for.
I hope for scenario four: 'The Delta variant mutates to become less harmful, similar to the four coronaviruses circulating today, such as the common cold.'
What do you mean by "not being controlled by vaccines"? Do you not think that they might have something to do with the massive disparity in the ratio of infections to deaths?I think that report is a realistic balanced assesment of where we are to date. Covid has most definitely got the upper hand it's not being controlled by vaccines, its mutating and evading and we all hope it will become a common cold like the other coronaviruses but I believe it could get worse too.
Vaccines alone were never going to "control" it.I think that report is a realistic balanced assesment of where we are to date. Covid has most definitely got the upper hand it's not being controlled by vaccines, its mutating and evading and we all hope it will become a common cold like the other coronaviruses but I believe it could get worse too.
It can be hard to perfectly ascertain the role of one factor over another, and there can be a tendency to oversimplify. But ultimately I use dominance as a guide, and there have been several strains already which swept the globe and came to dominate. It is possible for a strain to take off by being in the right place at the right time, but I do tend to think that its reasonable to assume that dominant strains had specific advantages over strains that came before. And authorities are aware that they have to consider 'founder effect' and 'luck' as being potential factors, not every success for a strain of the virus can be presumed to be down to a real fitness advantage of that strain.To throw the cat among the pigeons, the virologists I follow remain sceptical that the epidemiologists are convincingly able to remove the extrinsic factors and accurately say that any one variant is any more transmissible than any other - recently they even cast doubt on long-established claims of variations in infectivity of any viruses ...
I dont have much to add given that its a large subject that was in focus months ago.Not sure how much weight to give SAGE's predictions these days, but I wonder what the knowledge base in here thinks of the scenarios in the link below?
A Warning About The Future Of Covid-19 From The Scientific Advisory Group For Emergencies Of The United Kingdom
At least they are attempting some forward planning. Rather than hastening things to protect landlord's and party donor's massive wealth.Certainly some of the scenarios they describe are one of the many reasons why I favoured not letting millions of infections occur, since large numbers of infections means more opportunities to mutate. This point comes up a number of times in the SAGE paper.
The emergence of a new variant with (partial) vaccine escape properties (Figure 3). Much of the UK’s current population immunity comes from vaccination; a variant that could overcome this immunity would have a fitness advantage and could spread rapidly through the population. As the UK continues to vaccinate and individuals return to pre-COVID rates of mixing there is an increased evolutionary pressure for vaccine escape variants to emerge. Very high prevalence in schools combined with partly vaccinated 12-16 year olds in a highly mixing population provides ideal conditions for vaccine escape emergence.
This is a bit of a worry, giving some young uns a single dose could turn out to be a very bad decision (or have they changed the reccomendation for 12-15 year olds?Very high prevalence in schools combined with partly vaccinated 12-16 year olds in a highly mixing population provides ideal conditions for vaccine escape emergence.
They changed it for 16-18 year olds recently but its still early days for 12-15 year olds getting even a single dose. Maybe they will expand that to two doses when the time comes, not sure.This is a bit of a worry, giving some young uns a single dose could turn out to be a very bad decision (or have they changed the reccomendation for 12-15 year olds?
Not saying it's not a useful article, but it's worth pointing out that it's dated August 4th.Not sure how much weight to give SAGE's predictions these days, but I wonder what the knowledge base in here thinks of the scenarios in the link below?
A Warning About The Future Of Covid-19 From The Scientific Advisory Group For Emergencies Of The United Kingdom
Not saying there's necessarily anything wrong with you not reading the thread thoroughly but I did already point this out a few posts up.Not saying it's not a useful article, but it's worth pointing out that it's dated August 4th.
Just saying!
Not saying there's necessarily anything wrong with you not reading the thread thoroughly but I did already point this out a few posts up.
Just saying!
Not sure you understand how forums quite work yet. People normally read a post, react to a post, and then read the subsequent posts. In which case William wouldn't have seen your post before posting his post.Not saying there's necessarily anything wrong with you not reading the thread thoroughly but I did already point this out a few posts up.
Just saying!
"Normal" behaviour is not necessarily acceptable behaviour. Especially when we are talking about urban75 posters.Not sure you understand how forums quite work yet. People normally read a post, react to a post, and then read the subsequent posts. In which case William wouldn't have seen your post before posting his post.
hth
William of Walworth said:Not saying it's not a useful article, but it's worth pointing out that it's dated August 4th.
Just saying!
Missed that earlier post. Wherever it might beNot saying there's necessarily anything wrong with you not reading the thread thoroughly but I did already point this out a few posts up.
Just saying!
When was it last over 50k?Cases back over 50k
When was it last over 50k?
I could Google but thought you/someone might know off the top of their head.