Galloway returns to Parliament in sensational win in Bradford West - Labour/Coalition smashed

[Fisher_Gate]

Leaflets put out by all the parties in the election are here:
http://www.electionleaflets.org/constituencies/bradford_west/

Galloway's are clearly a radical/socialist programme - pulling the troops out of Agfhanistan is only one out of half a dozen issues: opposition to tuition fees and restoration of the EMA (Bradford has the highest and fastest growing proportion of Under 25s of any local authority in the country IIRC), defence of NHS, opposition to public spending cuts, investment and jobs locally, etc.

Comedy award goes to the Raving Monster LibDem Party candidate ('It's a two horse race', 'Only the LibDems can defeat Labour', 'The Tories, UKIP and other parties aren't in the race'... etc - they lost their deposit!!).

There are six wards in the constituency each with three councillors - three are all Labour, two are split 1 Con, 2 Lab, and one is entirely Tory. It is mathematically impossible to win 56% across the constituency without substantial votes in the three wards with Tory councillors. There is no evidence of those who usually voted Tory switching to Respect to keep Labour out. However clearly a significant number of those who voted for other parties voted for Galloway, however there is also the phenomenon of those who did not vote at all in prior elections turning out. The Tory candidate clearly believed right up to the vote that Galloway's candidature would help her by splitting the Labour vote - Cameron actually visited the constituency, traditionally prime ministers have stayed away from by-elections for fear of the vote being turned into a protest vote on the government.

 

[articul8]

It is mathematically impossible to win 56% across the constituency without substantial votes in the three wards with Tory councillors. There is no evidence of those who usually voted Tory switching to Respect to keep Labour out.

But it wouldn't be totally illogical to believe that if Respect had done well in areas with Tory councillors then it's possible that a percentage of previously Tory voters switched tactically to the best placed candidate to defeat Labour?

 

[Pickman's model]

But it wouldn't be totally illogical to believe that if Respect had done well in areas with Tory councillors then it's possible that a percentage of previously Tory voters switched tactically to the best placed candidate to defeat Labour?

Another pile of fucking pony from you. Just because somewhere's a tory councillor you automatically assume a lot of things about the area which may not stand up to scrutiny. For example, the cllr may have fuck all majority.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

But it wouldn't be totally illogical to believe that if Respect had done well in areas with Tory councillors then it's possible that a percentage of previously Tory voters switched tactically to the best placed candidate to defeat Labour?

It's more plausible that people in those wards who didn't vote in previous elections because there was no-one worth voting for came out in large numbers to vote for Galloway (council elections tend to have a 30-40% turnout compared to 51% in the by election). Given the demographics of Bradford specifically and of voting more generally, these would mostly be young voters 18-24. Hopefully someone will collate the ward level turnouts and we can see.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

It is worth pointing out that of the six by-elections in Labour held seats since the General Election, Bradford West had the highest turnout by quite a bit compared to the run of the mill ones - in the most recent one of Feltham and Heston turnout sank to 28.8%, while in Barnsley Central it was 36.5%. Even in the 'controversial' one in Oldham East & Saddleworth caused by scum Woolas' disqualification after an electoral court action taken by an opposing party, it was still only 48% and the Labour vote increased massively.

 

[two sheds]

While I agree with JHE that being anti-war is not the preserve of the left, in what way is the current US government left wing?

Sorry, it was a palindrome .

I must admit I hadn't really thought about it but whether someone still supports the war presumably depends on the reasons they thought it was being waged in the first place.

Left wingers I'd have thought would tend to see the war as the US wanting to promote their foreign interests, so would be against and still be against.

Right wingers would presumably believe it was to fight al-Qaeda, so they would tend to believe that was still necessary. I suppose a lot would feel that we should pull out for financial reasons, though.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Sorry, it was a palindrome .

I must admit I hadn't really thought about it but whether someone still supports the war presumably depends on the reasons they thought it was being waged in the first place.

Left wingers I'd have thought would tend to see the war as the US wanting to promote their foreign interests, so would be against and still be against.

Right wingers would presumably believe it was to fight al-Qaeda, so they would tend to believe that was still necessary. I suppose a lot would feel that we should pull out for financial reasons, though.

Without wishing to derail, it appeared to me that most of the senior UK military were opposed to the war when it was first proposed to them. I'm pretty sure most of them also profile 'right-wing' politically.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

Whatever one thinks about Galloway, most people who have seen or met her believe that Salma Yaqoob is a person of integrity and honesty. She was born in Bradford and was heavily involved in the campaign. During polling day she tweeted that her relatives in Bradford had been approached by the Labour Party and told that they had to vote for the Labour candidate because he was a muslim. Does anyone seriously believe that she is lying and made this up?

 

[treelover]

Any news on the pro NHS Doctors standing against the Condems?

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Any news on the pro NHS Doctors standing against the Condems?

In Bradford?

 

[articul8]

Another pile of fucking pony from you. Just because somewhere's a tory councillor you automatically assume a lot of things about the area which may not stand up to scrutiny. For example, the cllr may have fuck all majority.

They'd still have had a proven ability to win a plurality of votes in the previous contest, and therefore *unless as F-G says there was a very different pattern of who was turning out (which is possible but certainly bucks recent electoral trends) , then it is probable that at least some of these voters switched allegiance.

 

[Pickman's model]

They'd still have had a proven ability to win a plurality of votes in the previous contest, and therefore *unless as F-G says there was a very different pattern of who was turning out (which is possible but certainly bucks recent electoral trends) , then it is probable that at least some of these voters switched allegiance.

And I suppose you've explored turnout in the last local elections in bradford to support your reasoning

 

[DotCommunist]

But it wouldn't be totally illogical to believe that if Respect had done well in areas with Tory councillors then it's possible that a percentage of previously Tory voters switched tactically to the best placed candidate to defeat Labour?

egyptian riverdance

 

[Bernie Gunther]

The anecdotal stuff in that Labour activist article linked earlier and other stuff I've seen, tends to suggest that what happened was largely the mobilisation of disenfranchised 18-25 voters who don't think the neo-liberal parties have anything to offer them.

Which I think is pretty much what Fishergate is suggesting above.

It would be *very* interesting to know if this is true and if so, what mobilised them.

I'd hazard a small wager that it wasn't GG claiming to be tee-total.

 

[DexterTCN]

Tories voting for gg tactically seems highly unlikely.

 

[DotCommunist]

The anecdotal stuff in that Labour activist article linked earlier and other stuff I've seen, tends to suggest that what happened was largely the mobilisation of disenfranchised 18-25 voters who don't think the neo-liberal parties have anything to offer them.

Which I think is pretty much what Fishergate is suggesting above.

It would be *very* interesting to know if this is true and if so, what mobilised them.

I'd hazard a small wager that it wasn't GG claiming to be tee-total.

See that would be interesting. Th libdems got that section of the electorate in the general because nick was doing a 'hey, new politics' thing. Since jumping into bed with the tories and serving up their (often first time) voter share the first taste of 'yeh we lied' they have lost that section of young, looking for alternative to the big 3 (well soon to be two LOL).

it will be interesting to see how things swing next locals, not so much that the yellow scum will be wiped out and we will all have a good chuckle, but where the vote they had goes.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Any news on the pro NHS Doctors standing against the Condems?

I have my suspicions that a certain GP and current Green Party councillor will be one of those in our fine city. I really hope not because she makes the politics of most SWP student members look sensible and sane. Emasculate capitalism etc.

 

[JHE]

Two things about GGG's stuff about never drinking:

a) It formed just part of his usual tactic/habit - used in London as well as Bradford - of dropping very strong hints that he's Muslim without ever quite asserting it

b) In this particular campaign, it was used because of the tittle-tattle about Imran Hussain. This is clear from the letter (and from at least one of GGG's speeches and from MPAC)

Today I have seen a couple of vids, one of a GGG speech at an Al-Respeq rally and one of a speech by Imran Hussain at a Labour campaign meeting.

GGG's speech was complete with all his usual Islamic greetings, references to God, religious faith and (a new one on me) the use the Arabic word 'haq' (truth) instead of the English word. It went down a bomb with his large audience. He was absolutely scathing about Hussain and it was clear that the audience had zero respect for the Labour candidate. The audience and GGG had contempt for Hussain. Jibes about his alleged drinking were part of that. Another thing that was jeered at was Hussain's ability at speech-making and debate. In GGG's assessment Hussain can barely string two sentences together. This derision had the crowd in stiches. Having seen the vid of Hussain, I have to say GGG is not far wrong about Hussain's speech-making ability. It's surprisingly crap for a barrister.

The other key point in GGG's attack on Hussain was different: it was political. According to GGG, Hussain had said in a debate that he "supports the mission in Afghanistan". It is unlikely that GGG would lie about that so publicly during an election campaign, so I'm inclined to believe he did say that.

Hussain's speech made me cringe. Insofar as it had any content, it was about his being a local Pakistani lad made good and the government being full of millionaires - but that's being quite kind about it. Hussain came across really badly. His manner was angry and shouty, but the content was barely political.

Having seen those vids, I reckon:

1. GGG was particularly lucky in his Labour opponent. Perhaps his campaign would have given him a chance against a better candidate (he beat Oona King who is a lot more impressive than poor Imran Hussain), but I think his landslide owes a lot to a crap Labour candidate.

2. Imran Hussain was particularly unlucky in getting the GGG as an opponent. Given the Labour voting traditions of the constituency, without the GGG campaign, Imran Hussain would probably have won, though on a much lower turn-out.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Got links for these videos?

 

[JHE]

The GGG one is embedded in an article on Socialist Unity. The Imran Hussain one is on YouTube. It's called something like Imran Hussain Part 1 Bradford

 

[Bernie Gunther]

OK ta.

 

[DotCommunist]

say Tower Hamlasesh again JHE.

 

[JHE]

I've found it but it's now telling me it's private which it wasn't earlier this evening

 

[JHE]

say Tower Hamlasesh again JHE.

desh, not sesh. What's sesh?

 

[DotCommunist]

The massive one they had when they heard abot Gorgeous winning 'the most spectacular victory in british political history'

 

[JHE]

Anyway, he's now in Bradistan West or more specifically Bradpur West or Mirford West

 

[JHE]

The massive one they had when they heard abot Gorgeous winning 'the most spectacular victory in british political history'

If rumours are correct, the poor defeated Imran Hussain may have, but the victors were too busy praising God

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Anyway, he's now in Bradistan West or more specifically Bradpur West or Mirford West

Race-baiting again JHE?

 

[Combustible]

Tories voting for gg tactically seems highly unlikely.

Well the -23% swing away from the Tories and 10000 lost votes has to be explained somehow. They could have not voted or they could have genuinely switched to Labour/GG (rather than voted tactically) but that is a lot of votes lost, far more then any other by-election of this parliament and with a reasonably high turn out it seems unlikely that they all stayed at home.

 

[DotCommunist]

Anyway, he's now in Bradistan West or more specifically Bradpur West or Mirford West

You'll need to work on that. Brashmir? Either way when you find it be sure to add it to your bank of wind up terms to wheel out whenever opportunity knocks. You shameless fuck.