Galloway returns to Parliament in sensational win in Bradford West - Labour/Coalition smashed

[SpineyNorman]

Hilariously funny and unpredictable as they may be, I detect a wee bit of racism behind the "Tower Hamladesh", "Bradistan West", "Bradpur West" and "Mirford West" jokes.

But then again I'm a craven Islamophile and Dhimmitrot so I may be viewing this through Mecca tinted spectacles.

 

[8115]

I really don't like the sound of a terror state within Melanie Phillips.

 

[Lock&Light]

Disapproval of Islamism is not racist.

 

[articul8]

And I suppose you've explored turnout in the last local elections in bradford to support your reasoning

You'd need the marked registers to tell who was voting though

 

[SpineyNorman]

Disapproval of Islamism is not racist.

No shit? Good job nobody claimed it was then.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

No shit? Good job nobody claimed it was then.

Yep, I'd certainly take all that "Bradistan" stuff to be clearly referencing and very arguably sneering at the immigrant origins and race of the citizens in question, rather than their religion.

 

[Lock&Light]

No shit? Good job nobody claimed it was then.

I disagree.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

In most election there is usually more than one group of moving voters and it can get quite complicated.

In the Bradford Council local elections in the two 'split' party wards in Bradford West, the Tories won 1,815 and 2,127 in 2010 just before the General Election, but by May 2011 they were down to 1,184 and 1,370 respectively - a decline of nearly 1,500 votes in just 12 months - and both wards which had been Tory in 2008 were solidly won by Labour. One quite likely hypothesis is that a significant number of Tory voters from the General Election switched to Labour for the by-election (the Tories did drop by over 20 percentage points and UKIP only explains about 1 percent of that), while a larger number of Labour voters from the GE switched to Respect, while those who did not vote in the General Election who turned out in the by-election overwhelmingly voted for Respect. This might makes it look like Tory voters switched to Respect but while I have no doubt that there were a few, there may not have been very many and it certainly was not a consciously organised or vociferous group.

Galloway's support for the redevelopment of the Odeon cinema (rather than demolition) in the constituency is likely to have won him some votes among the older white longer-established (family-wise) Bradford voters - the issue has a attracted a small but vociferous and determined group of generally older white/indigenous to Bradford people (I've seen them queueing to collect leaflets by the campaigners outside the former cinema in the past). These voters could well have seen Galloway's election as a potential (last) chance to save it and voted on a single issue basis.

 

[Citizen66]

You'll need to work on that. Brashmir?.

Islamabrad.

 

[Pickman's model]

You'd need the marked registers to tell who was voting though

why don't you get onto a local labour psephologist then and see what they have to tell you

 

[Pickman's model]

You'd need the marked registers to tell who was voting though

in the 2011 local elections the conservatives got a total of 5364 votes in the wards comprising the bradford west constituency, on an average 42.7 turnout. on a 51% turnout on thursday only half that number - 2746 - voted conservative.

 

[cantsin]

Anyway, he's now in Bradistan West or more specifically Bradpur West or Mirford West

at west ham games early -mid 80's, when spurs barmies / hoolies were at their/our (political) worst, 'Upton, - Parkistan' and 'East Endbul,East Endbul,East Endbul' were crowd favourites - good to see keyboard muglets keeping the proud tradition going 30 + yrs later

 

[Combustible]

One quite likely hypothesis is that a significant number of Tory voters from the General Election switched to Labour for the by-election (the Tories did drop by over 20 percentage points and UKIP only explains about 1 percent of that), while a larger number of Labour voters from the GE switched to Respect, while those who did not vote in the General Election who turned out in the by-election overwhelmingly voted for Respect.

It's also interesting that when Galloway won Bethnal Green and Bow, the Tories also lost a third of their votes from 2001 despite significantly more people voting. So it seemed pretty likely that Tory voters were tactically voting for someone and there are plausible reasons why they may tactically vote for Labour or Respect. I'd have thought enough time has passed since 2005 for something to come out about voting patterns in that election.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

.... I'd have thought enough time has passed since 2005 for something to come out about voting patterns in that election.

It's a secret ballot ... and surveys taken about both intended and actual electoral behaviour are notoriously unreliable (remember the 1992 general election where there was the 'Shy Tory' factor... of course now we have the 'Two fingers Labour' factor where card carrying members of the Labour Party in Bradford West go out and vote for Galloway en masse).

Irish elections, where we have transfer votes detailed under STV, show some fascinating insights into counter-intuitive voter behaviour.

 

[audiotech]

at west ham games early -mid 80's, when spurs barmies / hoolies were at their/our (political) worst, 'Upton, - Parkistan' and 'East Endbul,East Endbul,East Endbul' were crowd favourites - good to see keyboard muglets keeping the proud tradition going 30 + yrs later

I remember going to see Leeds play a "friendly" with Bradford City back in those times, mid 70's. Leeds fans went on the rampage, abusing Asians and throwing bricks through people's windows, with those on the receiving end cowering in fear. Not pleasant to witness. JHE take note. We set up a successful RAR club a few years later, held weekly at St George's Hall.

 

[redsquirrel]

Fucking desperate attempts to avoid the obvious conclusion that lots of people, including many non-muslims - voted for galloway because they agreed with what he was saying.

The assumption that this must be becasue its lib dems and tories voting for Galloway - who they would absolutely hate as their MP - to stop labour winning the seat is utterly bizzarre. Its based on no evidence whatsoever and has absoultey no parrallel in the history of how people vote.

Then were did the Tory (and LD) vote go?
I can see three possibilities.
1) They all stayed at home (despite the fact that there had been talk of them coming from behind and managing to win the seat) and Galloway managed to pick up a lot of new voters.
2) Some of them voted for Labour but more Labour voters switched to Galloway.
3) Some of them voted for Galloway to give Labour a kicking.

I think a combination of all three is the most likely but if you want to account for Galloway's win solely through the first option then he must have attracted a significant number of people who didn't vote at the last GE while turnout overall dropped. Which makes his win even more impressive IMO.

 

[free spirit]

Then were did the Tory and LD vote go?

I'd suspect a lot of the lib dem vote would have gone directly to Galloway.

Remember when they last voted lib dem they were portraying themselves as the anti-war party on a relatively left of centre ticket, and an alternative to the 2 main parties. Not at all surprising to find that a significant proportion of those voters would move directly to supporting Galloway now the lib dems have shown their colors in government.

 

[free spirit]

I'd actually not be surprised to find a fair few voters switching directly from the tories to Galloway as well in this constituency, as they'll have been directly seeing the impact of the governments economic policies on their businesses etc. as well as the local issues.

I've yet to find anyone from any side of the political spectrum in bradford who's got a good word to say for any of their politicians from any of the major parties either in the council or MPs, and it really is a city that's been shat upon and largely left to rot for a couple of generations. If Galloway was able to portray himself as someone who might shake things up, I can easily see a fair few tory voters switching their votes across as well.

 

[redsquirrel]

I'd actually not be surprised to find a fair few voters switching directly from the tories to Galloway as well in this constituency, as they'll have been directly seeing the impact of the governments economic policies on their businesses etc. as well as the local issues.

Yep I don't think loads of Tories switched to Galloway but I don't think it's stupid to suggest that a few probably did.

 

[free spirit]

Yep I don't think loads of Tories switched to Galloway but I don't think it's stupid to suggest that a few probably did.

and a hell of a lot more who just stayed at home either in disgust at the state of the things, or because they saw the way things were heading and realised it would be pointless bothering to vote tory anyway.

 

[SpineyNorman]

I disagree.

You're not even making sense now. What do you disagree with?

 

[Lock&Light]

You're not even making sense now. What do you disagree with?

You said that nobody claimed that disaproval of Islamism was racist, yet JHE, who disapproves of Islamism, has repeatedly been called racist.

 

[DotCommunist]

Do you recon thats because he couches his dissaproval in racist terms or because everyone who objects loves ~Islam in all its forms and wants to nosh mo off?

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Sorry, it was a palindrome .

I must admit I hadn't really thought about it but whether someone still supports the war presumably depends on the reasons they thought it was being waged in the first place.

Left wingers I'd have thought would tend to see the war as the US wanting to promote their foreign interests, so would be against and still be against.

Right wingers would presumably believe it was to fight al-Qaeda, so they would tend to believe that was still necessary. I suppose a lot would feel that we should pull out for financial reasons, though.

That's all very nice but doesn't answer my question - I am well aware of why people may or may not be anti/pro war.

 

[Lock&Light]

Do you recon thats because he couches his dissaproval in racist terms or because everyone who objects loves ~Islam in all its forms and wants to nosh mo off?

I dont accept that he couches his disapproval in racist terms. The addition of a "stan" to a place-name is a gibe against Islam but not against any "race".

 

[The39thStep]

How many seats do we think they will get in the Council elections?

 

[Bernie Gunther]

I dont accept that he couches his disapproval in racist terms. The addition of a "stan" to a place-name is a gibe against Islam but not against any "race".

The 'stan' suffix is geographical. Hence it can reasonably be taken to be a slur against immigrants from parts of the world where that suffix is common when used as JHE does.

Obvious counter-examples to the suggestion that 'stan' is something to do with Islam would be Hindustan, Khalistan (Sikh) ... and there are plenty of others.

 

[chilango]

How many seats do we think they will get in the Council elections?

I'd say none. Council elections are a very different beast. Can Respect (or anyone else) motivate a similar turn-out for the locals?

...but then I said Galloway wouldn't get 10% so what do I know?

 

[Lock&Light]

The 'stan' suffix is geographical. Hence it can reasonably be taken to be a slur against immigrants from parts of the world where that suffix is common when used as JHE does.

I see that as being over-sensitive. Everyone's toes seem to have grown so much longer in the years since I was young.

 

[DotCommunist]

or perhaps casual racism was acceptable when you where young. I've seen sitcoms from the 70s.

shit isn't acceptable today. These days brown and black people get to share the same rights as everyone else