I reckon it will have been a confluence of factors with some kind of trigger moment rather than one big bad thing that led to an inevitable outcome.
The cold will have made people impatient and eager to be not stuck outside.
It’s likely that there were fake tickets, also likely that some people had no ticket.
Sometimes at the Academy - especially when there’s a predominantly Black audience - crowds gather outside just to be there, as part of the event. Ziggy Marley and Burning Spear both had peaceful gatherings of people outside the venue. Police tend to go a bit gently-gently on these events for historic reasons.
I wonder what proportion of this crowd has much gig going experience. Going to gigs (or any other mass cultural event) demands and expects certain behaviours. I wouldn’t have a clue about what the general crowd culture is like at a rugby match or at Glyndbourne. Plus, I’ve noticed that 2 years of lockdown seems to have made a big difference to crowd etiquette. As if the chain of learning from others has glitched. If the door security (who are there a lot) were expecting the crowd to behave a certain way and they didn’t, then maybe there was a breakdown in the dialogue and dynamic between crew and crowd.
Normally, door and street security at the Academy is really good. I go there a lot and there are always plenty of people, at every point from barrier to inner door, all being efficient and professional, checking tickets and bags quickly. It’s a well oiled machine. I can’t believe that the house changed their protocols for this particular night. That makes no sense. But they may have had a few people call in sick, or too many rookies, or they may have been a touch complacent because they’ve never had an issue like this before.
Asake has blown up recently and obvs needs a bigger venue but I can’t see how realistic it would have been to pull these shows and book a larger venue, sell enough tickets for that, make Academy ticket valid for that show etc…. . Maybe they should have booked another couple of nights at the Academy but that may have been impossible for scheduling reasons.
I don’t think there was any way to anticipate this disaster so I don’t think it makes sense to say they should have delayed the show. That would have potentially pissed people off inside the auditorium.
Other points - like how a rush at the back compounds at the front, crowds being like fluids etc, all that’s true too.
I think this was probably one of those awful perfect storm situations, with a recipe of different things that accumulated. I don’t think we’re going to find a single fault that caused it.
That‘s no comfort at all, and it creates a situation where the need to find a scapegoat increases. Whether that ends up being the house, the crew, the crowd or some other thing remains to be seen. My worry is that instead of cracking down on fake tickets we end up with ever more draconian door policies, barrier policies and funnelling of crowds. That would be shit not only because it impinges on freedoms but also because the more you impose control on groups of people, the less agency and autonomy individual people experience, and the risk of crowd-as-mindless-entity increases. People treated like cattle at the street side of the venue are more likely to behave like cattle once they’re inside. (This is not science, it‘s based on my own obvs and exps over many years of being in gig and festival crowds.)
Over and above everything else though, I feel horrible about this needless death. There will also be residual trauma for others who were in the crowd, and my heart goes out to them too,