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Donald Trump - MAGAtwat news and discussion

Polls indefinite - "the race is close" is all they are really telling us. But the polls are using methodology based on previous elecitons. Whilst Trump may well win (and that is a deeply disturbing and possibly catopsthopihic outcome) Its possilbe that fear of trump (and/or vote supression) is driving up early voting and increased turn out - and polling might not that pick that up. Also women outraged at the overturning of Roe vs Wade may be undercoutned (as was the case in the midterms) - so Id say likely outcomes are between a close trump victory and a big victory for Harris.
What time do results come in (our time)?
 
Kaka Tim said:
Polls indefinite - "the race is close" is all they are really telling us. But the polls are using methodology based on previous elecitons. Whilst Trump may well win (and that is a deeply disturbing and possibly catopsthopihic outcome) Its possilbe that fear of trump (and/or vote supression) is driving up early voting and increased turn out - and polling might not that pick that up. Also women outraged at the overturning of Roe vs Wade may be undercoutned (as was the case in the midterms) - so Id say likely outcomes are between a close trump victory and a big victory for Harris.
What time do results come in (our time)?
Click to expand...

They count and declare the votes on a state by state basis, so they will come in over a period of time rather than suddenly declaring "the result", although I'm sure people will be making predictions based on partial results as soon as a few are in.
 
andysays said:
Do you have any idea when the full result is likely to be declared (barring re-counts, legal challenges etc)?
Click to expand...
Alaska polls close at 8 local time (Hawaii at 7), 11 pm eastern, so not before then, though there are always individual counties all over with tallying "problems" which may delay it.

the networks have all the demographic info and will call states when there's an insurmountable lead.
 
so is it a stay up late - or next day job for us limeys? They are six hourse behind us - so midnight here is 6pm on the east coast.
 
Kaka Tim said:
- so Id say likely outcomes are between a close trump victory and a big victory for Harris.
Click to expand...
Yeah, about right I'd have thought. And within that range quite a bit of space for magas to attack results in specific states/ counties. :(
 
If the races in swing states are as close as polls suggest they will be, the election could be too close to call for days, if polls are way off and there's a shocker like Harris winning Ohio or Trump winning Virginia it could be called very early
 
story said:
gentlegreen


I know you said you're trying to disconnect from the US election, but you also seem to be curious about Jan 6th, so I'm not sure if this is useful or interesting for you.

But anyway, for you or others who may want to see it:

YouTube has a Channel 4 doc that goes through it all. The Storming of USA's Capitol Hill: How it Happened

I can't link to it cos I'm abroad and the video isn't available in this country.
Click to expand...
This, on the riots themselves, rather than the lead-up, is also highly recommended on the iplayer. For gentlegreen too
 
Kaka Tim said:
so is it a stay up late - or next day job for us limeys? They are six hourse behind us - so midnight here is 6pm on the east coast.
Click to expand...

id say get a nights kip.. unless it a complete landslide trumps never going to concede the election result as it him finished
and seeming as he gutted the GOP of anyone who not a raving nutcase or a relation .. they also going to fight it to the death

unless of course he wins then well
 
Listen to Farron, the political scientist who knows all about polls. Don't be complacent, but don't buy into the shit that Dumpty's crew are parroting. We have learned that Thiel has been playing silly buggers with the betting to launch an onslaught that the thing is going to win. Pakman has lost subscribers for being too negative and buying into the narrative that the creature is in the lead. Just get out and vote if you are in the US. That's the only poll that matters.

 
Kaka Tim said:
Polls indefinite - "the race is close" is all they are really telling us. But the polls are using methodology based on previous elecitons. Whilst Trump may well win (and that is a deeply disturbing and possibly catopsthopihic outcome) Its possilbe that fear of trump (and/or vote supression) is driving up early voting and increased turn out - and polling might not that pick that up. Also women outraged at the overturning of Roe vs Wade may be undercoutned (as was the case in the midterms) - so Id say likely outcomes are between a close trump victory and a big victory for Harris.
What time do results come in (our time)?
Click to expand...
There’s definitely some fucking about with polls and the betting market in the last month, but if anything that’s counter productive. Democrats are most likely to fail when they’re complacent about winning (e.g.Hilary Clinton in 2016), not when it looks like a toss-up.

The republicans are doing a lot of micro-targeted campaigning, mainly through Musk’s PAC, e.g. portraying Harris as a supporter of Israel with some groups and a pro-Palestinian with others. It’s a bit like the Brexit campaign, trying to push individual’s buttons and motivate people to vote to get their numbers up. I don’t know if the democrats are doing anything similar or anything to counter this.

They got the vote out last time despite Trump’s wretched performance as President, just not quite enough. But things are different now, they have more grievances as motivation (stolen election, inflation, the border ‘crisis’), and have drawn a lot more young people into their sphere - see what the biggest podcasts in America are right now, Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson etc. I think they have this, unfortunately.
 
what makes you think they draw more young people into Trump sphere of influence btw?

polls not really showing signed of this?
 
Dogsauce said:
There’s definitely some fucking about with polls and the betting market in the last month, but if anything that’s counter productive. Democrats are most likely to fail when they’re complacent about winning (e.g.Hilary Clinton in 2016), not when it looks like a toss-up.

The republicans are doing a lot of micro-targeted campaigning, mainly through Musk’s PAC, e.g. portraying Harris as a supporter of Israel with some groups and a pro-Palestinian with others. It’s a bit like the Brexit campaign, trying to push individual’s buttons and motivate people to vote to get their numbers up. I don’t know if the democrats are doing anything similar or anything to counter this.

They got the vote out last time despite Trump’s wretched performance as President, just not quite enough. But things are different now, they have more grievances as motivation (stolen election, inflation, the border ‘crisis’), and have drawn a lot more young people into their sphere - see what the biggest podcasts in America are right now, Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson etc. I think they have this, unfortunately.
Click to expand...

According to this report, the campaign is worried that Musk has totally Musked up the get-out-the vote operation

Donald Trump has largely outsourced his 2024 campaign’s get-out-the-vote operation to a Super PAC bankrolled and directed by Elon Musk, the world’s richest man — and one of its most awkward. In recent weeks, several Republican operatives and other figures in the national party have bluntly and directly informed Trump they fear Musk’s organization is falling down on the job of mobilizing voters to cast their ballots for the Republican nominee.
According to two sources familiar with the situation and another person briefed on it, these close Trump allies have told him that they are worried that America PAC, an outside group that Musk created to boost turnout for Trump, is failing in critical battleground states that are likely to be won by razor-thin margins, with only weeks left to go before Election Day. Some partly blame, including when they’ve spoken to Trump, the group’s lead strategists, who are linked to the failed 2024 primary run of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

...This source adds that they relayed to Trump that they have been in touch “constantly” with conservative activists and other top Republicans based in key swing states, and few of them have had any positive comments lately about the Musk-supported America PAC’s impact in their respective states. Some say they are seeing a relatively small GOTV presence on the ground, despite the Super PAC’s massive spending to boost Trump — $75 million since Joe Biden withdrew from the Democratic ticket in July.

 
breadandcircuse said:
Listen to Farron, the political scientist who knows all about polls. Don't be complacent, but don't buy into the shit that Dumpty's crew are parroting. We have learned that Thiel has been playing silly buggers with the betting to launch an onslaught that the thing is going to win. Pakman has lost subscribers for being too negative and buying into the narrative that the creature is in the lead. Just get out and vote if you are in the US. That's the only poll that matters.
Click to expand...
Here's the list of polls that 538 are using for their model. Which of these are dodgy? YouGov? Ipsos? Marist College?
Even if you exclude every poll that has a Trump lead it only shifts things by a small amount.

The polls could be wrong, even the best polling companies make mistakes, and it is possible that crowding may be an issue.. But the idea that the Republicans are skewing trackers with dodgy polls just is not true. It's as much as conspiracy theory as the idea that polling companies are purposely trying to produce results to get a tight race.
Or that there is some secret plan for Trump to put Vance into power


Kaka Tim said:
Polls indefinite - "the race is close" is all they are really telling us. But the polls are using methodology based on previous elecitons.
Click to expand...
More than a few polling companies revised their methodology post 2020. Precisely because they over predicted the Biden vote (and did the same to Clinton in 2016). Of course it's possible that they've overcorrected, and there's some evidence that polling underestimated Democratic support in other elections.
 
Last edited:
Yossarian said:
According to this report, the campaign is worried that Musk has totally Musked up the get-out-the vote operation

Donald Trump has largely outsourced his 2024 campaign’s get-out-the-vote operation to a Super PAC bankrolled and directed by Elon Musk, the world’s richest man — and one of its most awkward. In recent weeks, several Republican operatives and other figures in the national party have bluntly and directly informed Trump they fear Musk’s organization is falling down on the job of mobilizing voters to cast their ballots for the Republican nominee.
According to two sources familiar with the situation and another person briefed on it, these close Trump allies have told him that they are worried that America PAC, an outside group that Musk created to boost turnout for Trump, is failing in critical battleground states that are likely to be won by razor-thin margins, with only weeks left to go before Election Day. Some partly blame, including when they’ve spoken to Trump, the group’s lead strategists, who are linked to the failed 2024 primary run of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

...This source adds that they relayed to Trump that they have been in touch “constantly” with conservative activists and other top Republicans based in key swing states, and few of them have had any positive comments lately about the Musk-supported America PAC’s impact in their respective states. Some say they are seeing a relatively small GOTV presence on the ground, despite the Super PAC’s massive spending to boost Trump — $75 million since Joe Biden withdrew from the Democratic ticket in July.

Click to expand...
There’s a Guardian article about people signing up to do canvassing (it’s managed by an app, typical gig economy shit) but not actually doing the job properly - they’re required to knock on doors, fill in answers to questions on the app and submit the data. People are apparently reporting on NextDoor that people walk up their drive, loiter on the porch for a minute then leave, presumably just filling in the answers themselves to save time.

www.theguardian.com

Exclusive: Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake

Data suggests canvassers linked to Elon Musk’s America Pac falsely claimed to have visited homes of potential voters
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

However, it is concerning that a billionaire is funding this huge get-out-the-vote campaign, and that it is reaching into places never usually canvassed. How the rich can so openly control the outcome of an election. I mean this sort of shit has always gone on, but it’s just getting worse, and not just in the US (see hedge fund-sponsored stuff in this country like Brexit, the current Georgia elections etc.)
 
redsquirrel said:
Here's the list of polls that 538 are using for their model. Which of these are dodgy? YouGov? Ipsos? Marist College?
Even if you exclude every poll that has a Trump lead it only shifts things by a small amount.

The polls could be wrong, even the best polling companies make mistakes, and it is possible that crowding may be an issue.. But the idea that the Republicans are skewing trackers with dodgy polls just is not true. It's as much as conspiracy theory as the idea that polling companies are purposely trying to produce results to get a tight race.
Or that there is some secret plan for Trump to put Vance into power



More than a few polling companies revised their methodology post 2020. Precisely because they over predicted the Biden vote (and did the same to Clinton in 2016). Of course it's possible that they've overcorrected, and there's some evidence that polling underestimated Democratic support in other elections.
Click to expand...

At least some of the polls 538 is using, including Quantus Insights, rely entirely on "online panels" - this was an interesting read on the problems with such panels

Now, the internet is segmented. Most people access the internet through apps on their phone. Even the widely used social media networks, like Instagram, TikTok, Facebook or Snapchat, attract very different and unrepresentative audiences. The online panel providers try to recruit panelists from a mix of websites and apps who — hopefully — can be cobbled together to yield something plausibly representative. Unfortunately, “none of those really provide a good cross-section of the population all at once,” Mr. Jackson said.

Then there’s what Pew Research calls “bogus respondents.” Many online panel providers offer financial incentives to encourage people to take surveys. Unfortunately, that’s also an incentive for people — including people outside the United States — to try to collect gift cards and cash rewards by taking many surveys or even by programming A.I. bots to take polls.
 
redsquirrel said:
Here's the list of polls that 538 are using for their model. Which of these are dodgy? YouGov? Ipsos? Marist College?
Even if you exclude every poll that has a Trump lead it only shifts things by a small amount.

The polls could be wrong, even the best polling companies make mistakes, and it is possible that crowding may be an issue.. But the idea that the Republicans are skewing trackers with dodgy polls just is not true. It's as much as conspiracy theory as the idea that polling companies are purposely trying to produce results to get a tight race.
Or that there is some secret plan for Trump to put Vance into power



More than a few polling companies revised their methodology post 2020. Precisely because they over predicted the Biden vote (and did the same to Clinton in 2016). Of course it's possible that they've overcorrected, and there's some evidence that polling underestimated Democratic support in other elections.
Click to expand...
Yes, that was my point. The polling firms adjust to the last election, but this may mean they fail to adjust to new factors. Like corbyn in 2017.
 
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