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Some people also end up coming out with crap about 'the scientists were wrong', even though the modelling covers a range of scenarios and is quite clear about what parameters they play with in each scenario. Hence they are not delivering single fixed predictions about what will happen, they are not predictions of the sort that newspaper headlines make it sound like they are! Not least because they do not usually attempt to model changes in peoples behaviours that are caused by mood music etc, they tend to model behavioural changes only as part of scenarios where new formal restrictions come in on certain dates.
Yes, I hadn't quite appreciated the importance of mood music until Omicron came on the scene and how people's moderation of behaviour meant we were more or less in self imposed lockdown in the run up to Christmas.
 
Yes, I hadn't quite appreciated the importance of mood music until Omicron came on the scene and how people's moderation of behaviour meant we were more or less in self imposed lockdown in the run up to Christmas.
It was evident in the first big waves waves too - things like mobility data indicated that huge numbers of people took matters into their own hands well before formal restrictions came into effect. This caused wave peaks to happen sooner than would have been the case if we were relying only on formal lockdown. Unfortunately this caused some people with certain agendas to make dodgy claims about how lockdown was too late to do anything, how the wave had already peaked 'naturally' etc etc.

We saw a different version of this with the Delta wave too - behavioural changes and school summer holidays and really large numbers of people self-isolating due to the 'pingdemic' peaked that wave. But because we didnt have more formal restrictions that time, case numbers then persisted at a high rate for many months.
 
Dunno if anyone else has noticed.. but certainly on twitter the scientists I follow seem to be getting very tetchy with each other the last few days... loads of bold statements on limited data?

Also I can't help notice the irony that mask wearing etc seems to have all but collapsed in my part of north london as cases go over 2000+ per day..
 
That usually happens at this stage of a wave with all the uncertainties those waves bring. And it probably gets a bit worse each time. Some have predetermined ideas and biases about what they expect will happen, some 'centrists' have their opinions continually buffeted around depending on what data and studies came out on that particular day, and may change their minds again tomorrow, some want to stick to their guns, some are very fond of making premature claims. Its useful to look at their track record with previous waves and past claims, but this can be tedious to quickly check for on twitter if they tweet a lot every day.

And even consensus within the scientific community can be tricky to achieve, its not just a problem with the broader public, politicians and those with obvious financial or ideological agendas.

Plus plenty of people who talk about the detail on twitter are going beyond their professional specialities, so sometimes when they fall out with each other over detail and future expectations, some specialists get arsey about people 'not staying in their lane' etc.
 
Our numbers of active cases are growing. In the past, we were always in the lower two digits. sometimes only 4 or 5 cases.

I live in North Glengarry with a population of approximately 10,000. Our health unit covers four counties. Hawkesbury is fairly large, but Cornwall is our highest concentration of people.
Akwesasne repents half of the first nation reserve, the other side is in the States.


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I noticed that a friend in town posted that her and her boyfriend were exposed. They took the test and will expect the results in 48 hours or so. She spent Christmas Day at one of her daughters. Maybe four more to the active cases?


I'm not too worried about me and Hubby, I'm the only one who goes out shopping. I'm mega careful, I have two grandchildren and a daughter that is refusing a shot.

We are rural....

home - winter.jpg


I love my middle of nowhere!!!!
 
extra dry, Im not sure what you mean with this later post but re: you're earlier insistance that Dr John simply follows the Data I just looked at his new video titled:

"Most omicron hospitalisations incidental"​

With the statement directly below it reading:

Around 80% of English hospital admissions with coronavirus are admitted for other reasons

The data he goes on to show does not support this headline, in fact the closest e gets is to draw his own guessed line extending an existing graph that is out of date to what he thinks would happen showing a precipitous drop in non incidentals entirely of his own invention
 
Just had a Zoom call with some NZ colleagues. They've got one case of Omicrom in the community there which has sent the country into a bit of meltdown. Brought into the country by a UK DJ called 'DJ Dimension' who was booked to play a festival and who then broke quarantine and then went clubbing. I'd scarper quickly if I was him.
 
Just had a Zoom call with some NZ colleagues. They've got one case of Omicrom in the community there which has sent the country into a bit of meltdown. Brought into the country by a UK DJ called 'DJ Dimension' who was booked to play a festival and who then broke quarantine and then went clubbing. I'd scarper quickly if I was him.

What a selfish cunt. :mad:
 
Just had a Zoom call with some NZ colleagues. They've got one case of Omicrom in the community there which has sent the country into a bit of meltdown. Brought into the country by a UK DJ called 'DJ Dimension' who was booked to play a festival and who then broke quarantine and then went clubbing. I'd scarper quickly if I was him.
DJ Superspreader was on his third trip to NZ since the borders were closed so I don't know how he can claim he wasn't aware of the rules.

 
According to him that's not exactly what happened.

View attachment 303717

As I understand it he had to do 7 days in some kind of facility then 3 days at home - he left after two before he got his results back

Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says it is “disappointing” a UK musician, who has tested positive for the Omicron variant of Covid-19, left self-isolation before receiving his test results.

Hipkins said the person clearly didn’t follow the rules, which he said were there for a reason.

“We don’t have Omicron in the community, and we want to keep it that way.”

But the information coming in about the case, his movements, and his contacts, were “encouraging”, so far
 
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What's NZ's current strategy anyway?
It seems they are now pretty much fully vaccinated. Unless they are still pursuing a zero Covid strategy (and I thought they'd said they wouldn't once people were vaccinated) at some point surely they are going to have to accept that Omicron is going to circulate widely?
 
What's NZ's current strategy anyway?
It seems they are now pretty much fully vaccinated. Unless they are still pursuing a zero Covid strategy (and I thought they'd said they wouldn't once people were vaccinated) at some point surely they are going to have to accept that Omicron is going to circulate widely?

No idea. It does seem a bit head in the sand. But they seem to have done a good job so far whatever the strategy is.
 
BBC 24 news running a story from France, average age of patient in ICU is 49 and again saying that they're almost all unvaccinated.
 
Ontario health officials are reporting another record-breaking number of new COVID-19 cases as more than 18,000 infections are logged on Saturday.

Public Health Ontario, which released the data, confirmed 18,445 new cases of the novel coronavirus today, surpassing the previous record of 16,713 new COVID-19 infections reported on Friday.

Ontario's rolling seven-day average has soared to 12,495, up from 5,939 at this point last week.

further breakdown of where the cases are -> Ontario reports 18,445 new COVID-19 cases, 12 more deaths


That is far too high for the premiere. Ford has a simple solution on how to bring the numbers down - stop testing everyone.
Now, only a very select group can be tested.

Schools are not allowed to tell parents how many cases are in their schools.
Too many teachers missing? No problem, get rid of the requirement that school classes stay separate. Just put the children in any class - now the children are being looked after.
No more of this learning-from-home nonsense - only one day a week is allowed for remote learning.

People looking after the daycares for under 5's are not eligible for testing.
 
"Flurona"
Welcome to 2022
Fluvid is obviously a far superior branding.

Also you've gotta laugh at the media, across the board now, claiming people going to hospital have mild symptoms. Obviously everyone knows that hospital is your first port of call for mild illness.
 
A potential concern with this vaccine, Corbevax/BioE COVID-19, is that it features just RBD and not full spike. This might lead to cross-variant immunogenic performance issues (to either or both infection and severe disease).
Map of CD4 and CD8 epitopes across the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Red lines indicate locations of omicron/B.1.1.529 amino acid changes (relative to WT).

RBD-only will not stimulate antibodies, or T cell responses, to N terminal domain or S2 regions which tend to be better conserved between VOCs. Those VOCs tend to have a significant number of mutations in RBD where there is higher selective pressure. A vaccine so focused might be more vulnerable to immune escape. It might also be less effective at generating some antibodies, other than largely neutralising ones, which might have significant roles in conferring degrees of protection.
 
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