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weltweit said:
I wonder if testing can establish if someone has had the virus and recovered from it.

When testing wider populations, which may become necessary in the UK in due course, they could then have three statuses which they could establish: hasn't got it, has got it, had it.
Click to expand...

Serology tests - testing for the presence of virus-specific antibodies - can do this; I think Singapore announced a few days ago that they had developed one, and certainly labs around the world are working on it, but I don’t think they’re in general use yet. I’m sure they will become part of the arsenal - in particular they can (potentially) give a picture of the scale of sub-clinical infections, which could be very important in assessing mortality.
 
Lupa said:
Heard today that a few schools nearby had trips away to northern Italy over the midterm.
All back and went straight to school. 🙄

But the same situation happened up north and the pupils were told to stay at home for 14 days.

😮
Click to expand...


And now the first case of coronavirus in the republic has shown up. A secondary school male pupil who was in Italy on a school trip over mid term. The school has been instructed to close for the next two weeks.
 
Italy's rich northern Lombardi has hospitals close to collapse:

www.tgcom24.mediaset.it

Coronavirus, in Lombardia ospedali vicini al collasso | L'Oms: "Serve una struttura ad hoc" - Tgcom24

Nell'emergenza sanitaria in corso, nella regione scarseggiano posti soprattutto in terapia intensiva, mentre si cerca personale sanitario da subito disponibile. A Milano individuata una soluzione
www.tgcom24.mediaset.it www.tgcom24.mediaset.it

Spanish writer went to Portugal returned to Spain 23 February now confirmed. Suggesting significant spread in Portugal.
 
elbows said:
Yeah, confirmed cases obviously dont tell the whole story, but here are numbers for a handful of countries I picked, to give a sense of what trends we might expect in terms of confirmed cases. Numbers below are a week ago, 23rd Feb, compared to today.

South Korea 763 -> 3736
Italy 153 -> 1128
Germany 16 -> 117
France 11 -> 100
Click to expand...

Oh I think the Italy numbers I used were out of date, I think I just saw something about 1577 cases, but then something else saying this total didnt include people who had recovered or died, just current infections. Total so far should be more like 1694.

Sorry for the lack of link, I dont have really good website sources for Italy and I scribbled those updated numbers down without paying attention to where I found them.

edit - the 1694 number is all over twitter so I probably found it there, but dont have brain energy to find an example tweet from a source I highly rate right now.
 
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farmerbarleymow said:
There are other reasons why I've stocked up - it's not just this thread.
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It was the Beast from the East a couple of years ago that made me think it was probably a good idea to have a stash of food and stuff on hand. I seem to have quite a lot of things like this, although I've not seen this specific example of fine dining in the wild for years:

heinz.jpg

That stash doesn't get raided by the drunk me, never, oh that just doesn't happen
 
South Korea has 10,000 tests a day (10 times the testing capacity of Britain) according to journalist's tweet


Also 2 of the deaths in South Korea were 2 patients under self-quarantine at home.

The otherwise healthy 35-year old who died in Thailand apparently was testing negative for the virus but then went worse and his organs failed.

The Disease Control Department said on Sunday that the patient had tested negative for the virus since Feb 16, but later suffered from failure of his lungs, heart and other organs, leading to his death.
 
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sihhi said:
Spanish writer went to Portugal returned to Spain 23 February now confirmed. Suggesting significant spread in Portugal.
Click to expand...
Portugal is one that has been bothering me. For some reason, it feels like one of those countries most likely to be overwhelmed. Yet they're not had a single case officially declared yet.

That's worrying. Either they're not testing, they're lying, or their tests are shit. I don't believe they're one of the only countries in Europe to escape this.

Also, Turkey's zero cases is obviously bullshit.
 
A massive thank you to sihhi and elbows for their posts.

The problem with the mosques and healing houses in Iran (apologies I don't know the correct name) is genuine.

Go watch Dr John Campbell's youtube videos on covid-19, he started looking into it near the end of January and has had daily updates on it from a UK perspective.

He started out optimistic, saying things are interesting, surprising or concerning. He had hoped the fucking thing just stuck to poorer healthcare countries. Then the data rolled in and peer-reviewed journals highlighted how serious this is. The case studies he goes through are interesting as it doesn't fit the pattern of what you'd think of with getting the flu.

Dr. John Campbell

Flu of any kind is a bitch. In 2002, I was living in Uzbekistan, the authorities there did not report the spread of bird flu and when they did they told the population to keep calm and carry on. One day after work I felt suddenly super weak, I could not stand, keep my eyes open and my entire body felt like it was breaking and burning. I just crashed in my bed and told my mates that I wasn't feeling well. I don't remember anything except that a couple of times there was a nurse in the flat administering IV and I remember a couple of times my friends brought food and tried to convince me to eat. I came back to being fully aware that I was just laying there in 15 days' time and I was so weak that I couldn't even walk or sit up for more than 10 minutes for another good week. I don't remember anything what happened during that 15 day period except for the IV and food things. It was horrible.
 
Kaka Tim said:
How is the usa's dismal public health system going to cope with this? Especially with their current fucknut in chief?
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It doesn't bode well does it? Canada has universal healthcare but a lack of paid sick days (only 3 per year in Ontario) are still a big restriction on folks' ability to self-isolate. I live in a town on the St. Lawrence river with lots of cross border tourist traffic. If it spreads in the U.S. first it'll be interesting to see when border restrictions begin.
 
weltweit said:
I am yet to see anyone wearing one in the UK yet.
I do live in the sticks though.
Click to expand...

I took a train to Stockholm at the weekend, passing through the central railway station, subway system and then a 16,000 seat concert venue. Not a single mask wearer seen by me, either. But of course people feel complacent because they see the numbers reported in the media and think it’s a live read on the situation. At the weekend I think it was still 12 cases being reported in Sweden. If they could see the media reports in three weeks time, when infections happening today will be apparent, then I bet there would have been more masks in use.

Kaka Tim said:
How is the usa's dismal public health system going to cope with this? Especially with their current fucknut in chief?
Click to expand...

A lot of money will be made from desperate people and a lot of desperately poor people will die from lack of care. Just another day in the American dream.
 
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Fez909 said:
Portugal is one that has been bothering me. For some reason, it feels like one of those countries most likely to be overwhelmed. Yet they're not had a single case officially declared yet.

That's worrying. Either they're not testing, they're lying, or their tests are shit. I don't believe they're one of the only countries in Europe to escape this.

Also, Turkey's zero cases is obviously bullshit.
Click to expand...

From RTP last night :
19h55 - Fifteen new suspected cases in the last 24 hours

The Directorate-General for Health announced the existence of 15 new suspected cases of Covid-19 in the past hours. Analyzes revealed that three of these cases are negative. The remaining 12 are still waiting for the results.

Of the 85 suspected cases in Portugal, 73 gave negative results. The data appear in the daily epidemiological bulletin of Covid-19.

For DGS, “taking into account the global epidemiological situation, it is necessary to consider the possibility of importing cases of illness from citizens from China or from other areas with active community transmission”.

The public health risk in Portugal is considered moderate to high.
 
Starting to think we should probs stock up on some tins... been after an excuse to get my partner to eat a fray bentos pie for a while. Mention of them above made a lot more enthusiastic for a bit of stockpiling. We're on a boat in kings cross atm. Got plenty of diesel, gas and water atm and are walking distance to an elsan point so fine on those fronts.
 
The39thStep said:
From RTP last night :
19h55 - Fifteen new suspected cases in the last 24 hours

The Directorate-General for Health announced the existence of 15 new suspected cases of Covid-19 in the past hours. Analyzes revealed that three of these cases are negative. The remaining 12 are still waiting for the results.

Of the 85 suspected cases in Portugal, 73 gave negative results. The data appear in the daily epidemiological bulletin of Covid-19.

For DGS, “taking into account the global epidemiological situation, it is necessary to consider the possibility of importing cases of illness from citizens from China or from other areas with active community transmission”.

The public health risk in Portugal is considered moderate to high.
Click to expand...
Portugal just confirmed its first cases. In Porto. One visited Italy, one visited Spain.
 
Fez909 said:
Portugal is one that has been bothering me. For some reason, it feels like one of those countries most likely to be overwhelmed. Yet they're not had a single case officially declared yet.

That's worrying. Either they're not testing, they're lying, or their tests are shit. I don't believe they're one of the only countries in Europe to escape this.

Also, Turkey's zero cases is obviously bullshit.
Click to expand...

Egypt has exported a bunch of cases too, suggesting a much larger outbreak there than has been acknowledged so far.
 
TopCat said:
The first US death reported. Someone who had no obvious transmission path.

I think it will be an interesting juxtaposition between the Chinese and US responses to the outbreak.

In the red corner, the Chinese, build a multi thousand bed hospital in days.

In the blue corner the United States, watch as they leave bodies lying in the streets (my prediction).
Click to expand...
This fascinates me too. capitalists bleat on about how the system benefits society as a whole, well we may see something that blows that opinion away.
 
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