Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[Supine]

I assume a certain percentage of cases going undetected has been factored into the modelling.

Where factored in = guestimate

 

[cupid_stunt]

Do they use a fresh mask for each patient then? You'd think they'd just wash them.

Yes, and so do the dental nurses, so it could be 2 or 3 masks per patient.

Masks must be changed when they become wet with saliva or other bodily fluids, as they lose their protective properties. Surgical masks are not tested against specific microorganisms and do not prevent specific diseases. Never reuse, wash or disinfect surgical masks. Never share surgical masks with others.

 

[maomao]

Yes, and so do the dental nurses, so it could be 2 or 3 masks per patient.

That just seems like a massive waste to me. Are they disposed of or sent back for re sterilising?

 

[a_chap]

If half the country got it 2% dead would be well over half a million people. In this country.

Which would certainly help traffic congestion, thankfully.

 

[Miss-Shelf]

T

Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) medication is being rationed, with women being warned they could struggle to get hold of patches for nearly a year.
The problem is thought to have started last year when Theramex stopped production because of issues manufacturing the glue for their patches, which are made in China, forcing customers towards other brands.

from HRT drugs rationed amid UK shortage set to last for months

There's already drug supply problems [interesting link here - this explanation of HRT drought in UK] from the complex supply chains and market mechanisms
It may not take much for supplies of vital drugs to run low/empty if different parts of the supply chain use products from China

 

[cupid_stunt]

That just seems like a massive waste to me. Are they disposed of or sent back for re sterilising?

They are disposable, they shouldn't be re-used, so no.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

It's been said elsewhere but masks don't really help anyway. If you know you are infectious yourself you should ideally wear one, but otherwise you need to wash your hands a lot and not touch your face. (The latter being very hard to do.) So don't worry too much about getting masks. Not that you should anyway in the U.K.

 

[tim]

If half the country got it 2% dead would be well over half a million people. In this country.

With this and BREXIT "Olde England" doesn't seem so very far away

 

[Celyn]

Ach, du lieber Augustin ...

 

[Supine]

Blimey. Some expert on c4 just said 60% of the UK population could need infected in the next 12 months. With 400 thousand deaths

They did say other people disagree with these figures.

 

[elbows]

Blimey. Some expert on c4 just said 60% of the UK population could need infected in the next 12 months. With 400 thousand deaths

They did say other people disagree with these figures.

I didnt see it but he's been saying that for a while now. I'll go and have a look for what I read, which will be easier when I remember his name.

 

[weltweit]

..
They did say other people disagree with these figures.

Was that the BBC News on radio four? if so I heard it as well, one speaker said that a 2% fatality rate wasn't very bad, and the response was something like if the whole population of Britain was infected it would be hundreds of thousands dead.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Blimey. Some expert on c4 just said 60% of the UK population could need infected in the next 12 months. With 400 thousand deaths

They did say other people disagree with these figures.

Why are the fucking media spreading this scaremongering?

Over 2500 people in the UK have been tested, only 9 have been positive.

Sure things could change, nuclear war could happen by accident, aliens could turn-up tomorrow & destroy the whole planet, we have no control over what could happen.

Focus on the here & now, focus on the facts, keep calm & carry on.

 

[elbows]

Facts that should be shared do include estimates for infection rates in the event of a widespread outbreak.

They have to say this stuff before it actually happens, otherwise if the containment strategy doesnt work then people will go crazy 'why didnt you warn us? why did you make it sound like containment was far more likely than this massive outbreak that we are suddenly faced with, with no prior mental preparation?'

 

[weltweit]

Small China update:

In China alone, more than 63,000 people have been infected with the virus, and 1,381 have died.

Outside China, there have been 505 cases in 24 countries, and two deaths.

A World Health Organization (WHO)-led mission to China will start its outbreak investigation work this weekend, focusing on how the virus is spreading and its severity, director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.

The mission, including international experts, will also look at how and when more than 1,700 health workers contracted the virus.

Coronavirus: Beijing orders 14-day quarantine for returnees

The latest restriction comes as the death toll from the coronavirus outbreak passes 1,500.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Was it Neil Ferguson? He is one of the UK people who have been going on about the 60% thing this week.

But it was Leung from Hong Kong university that really first caught some of the medias eye with it earlier in the week: Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked'

Its not uk specific.

 

[Supine]

Why are the fucking media spreading this scaremongering?

Over 2500 people in the UK have been tested, only 9 have been positive.

Sure things could change, nuclear war could happen by accident, aliens could turn-up tomorrow & destroy the whole planet, we have no control over what could happen.

Focus on the here & now, focus on the facts, keep calm & carry on.

They're talking about these numbers because containment from lockdowns might not contain it.

The same thing happened with Ebola but it was so fatal the outbreaks burnt themselves out, because people died before it could spread far. Less fatal infections have time to spread further so could do more damage.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Facts that should be shared do include estimates for infection rates in the event of a widespread outbreak.

They have to say this stuff before it actually happens, otherwise if the containment strategy doesnt work then people will go crazy 'why didnt you warn us? why did you make it sound like containment was far more likely than this massive outbreak that we are suddenly faced with, with no prior mental preparation?'

I totally disagree, we only have 9 cases in the UK, this is not the time to be scaremongering.

If & when it appears it could be getting out of control, then there is a reason to explain how bad it could get, but we a far from that point.

I am sick of hearing bullshit locally over the last few days, because one GP from Brighton happened to do a couple of shifts at Worthing hospital, and otherwise sane people are panicking because of the media hype & total bullshit being spread via social media.

The OP of this this thread is a major doom & gloom merchant, they were claiming on the main thread that something like a whole village had been wiped out & they were having a bonfire of the dead.

 

[elbows]

I totally disagree, we only have 9 cases in the UK, this is not the time to be scaremongering.

Guess how effective containment is if there is absolutely no fear involved.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

Again, we seem to be in some surreal black comedy:
The latest stories are about warnings going out to 200 attendees, including MPs, at a bus conference.

Health officials contact 200 including MPs over UK coronavirus scare

People attended London conference with delegate who has since tested positive

www.theguardian.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

Guess how effective containment is if there is absolutely no fear involved.

There doesn't need to be nationwide fear for containment to work among very small & isolated cases in a couple of areas.

FFS, Sussex has had 6 out of the 9 cases, one recovered & others are doing well, close contacts have been traced & tested, and no further cases found so far.

2 cases in York a week or so ago, no further cases reported there.

The latest case is one in London, if that takes-off there's fuck-all chance of containment anyway.

 

[Part-timah]

There doesn't need to be nationwide fear for containment to work among very small & isolated cases in a couple of areas.

FFS, Sussex has had 6 out of the 9 cases, one recovered & others are doing well, close contacts have been traced & tested, and no further cases found so far.

2 cases in York a week or so ago, no further cases reported there.

The latest case is one in London, if that takes-off there's fuck-all chance of containment anyway.

Massively underestimating risk is very common. The risk is manageable you dont not have to panic, stick your head in the sand or feel there’s nothing we can do if there’s a widespread outbreak.
There’s things we can all do to reduce the risk and it doesnt involve anything dramatic.

 

[elbows]

There doesn't need to be nationwide fear for containment to work among very small & isolated cases in a couple of areas.

FFS, Sussex has had 6 out of the 9 cases, one recovered & others are doing well, close contacts have been traced & tested, and no further cases found so far.

2 cases in York a week or so ago, no further cases reported there.

The latest case is one in London, if that takes-off there's fuck-all chance of containment anyway.

I understand the frustration with certain scaremongering stuff, trying to balance and fact-check stuff like that is one of the reasons I post so much when these things happen.

But we are not going to agree on the main bone of contention here. Public health officials always have to try to balance the prevention of panic, with trying to get people to pay sufficient attention to things in the first place. A public campaign has been activated that requires general public attention and cooperation, and its been a far bigger effort already, with far greater geographical spread, than the confirmed cases you focus on would suggest.

Otherwise too many people say 'I dont care', dont do their bit, and refuse to cooperate because they dont understand the point. They think everything is an overreaction, and they react in all sorts of unhelpful ways when they are prevented from going about their lives as if nothing was happening.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Massively underestimating risk is very common. The risk is manageable you dont not have to panic, stick your head in the sand or feel there’s nothing we can do if there’s a widespread outbreak.
There’s things we can all do to reduce the risk and it doesnt involve anything dramatic.

No one is underestimating the risk, it's clear there's a risk, and sensible advice is out there, and as you say following that advice doesn't involve anything dramatic, which is what we need, a common sense approach.

What we are getting from the media, however, is an overestimating of the risk at present, which is spreading panic, and indeed racism towards the Chinese & other Asians in the UK.

 

[Part-timah]

No one is underestimating the risk, it's clear there's a risk, and sensible advice is out there, and as you say following that advice doesn't involve anything dramatic, which is what we need, a common sense approach.

What we are getting from the media, however, is an overestimating of the risk at present, which is spreading panic, and indeed racism towards the Chinese & other Asians in the UK.

The current mortality rate is above 2%. The table below is from the CDC to help judge the severity of a pandemic. The most severe level only requires 2%. Yes, many experts are predicting this figure will drop. All we can do now is work with the figures we have. Over the coming weeks we will have a better idea of the nature of covid-19.

 

[Supine]

What we are getting from the media, however, is an overestimating of the risk at present, which is spreading panic, and indeed racism towards the Chinese & other Asians in the UK.

I don't know who it was but it was an 'expert' in the field I saw interviewed on C4. Not the same as saying the media are just twisting things. He may well be wrong but maybe not.

 

[seeformiles]

I was in a Chinese supermarket in the centre of Leeds this morning (buying some cashew nuts in case you’re interested) and all the cashiers were wearing all manner of pretective gear (gloves, masks, hoods, the lot..) - very surreal

 

[seeformiles]

Ach, du lieber Augustin ...

Alles ist Tod..

 

[cupid_stunt]

I understand the frustration with certain scaremongering stuff, trying to balance and fact-check stuff like that is one of the reasons I post so much when these things happen.

But we are not going to agree on the main bone of contention here. Public health officials always have to try to balance the prevention of panic, with trying to get people to pay sufficient attention to things in the first place. A public campaign has been activated that requires general public attention and cooperation, and its been a far bigger effort already, with far greater geographical spread, than the confirmed cases you focus on would suggest.

Otherwise too many people say 'I dont care', dont do their bit, and refuse to cooperate because they dont understand the point. They think everything is an overreaction, and they react in all sorts of unhelpful ways when they are prevented from going about their lives as if nothing was happening.

But, most of the advice & comments from PHE, the NHS, and most experts are reasoned & sensible.

Then you get the odd maverick 'expert' coming out with the very worst case scenario, and guess who gets the most media coverage?

Have you not seen the fucking headlines from the tabloids over the last few days?

They are loving it, and spreading fear with shit like this...

London on the BRINK: Coronavirus panic as fears disease could obliterate the capital mount.

Doctors warn that London Underground could be hotbed for coronavirus.

Coronavirus: Fears 400,000 Brits could die from bug as pregnant GP says 'I'm scared'

 

[StoneRoad]

On the radio 4 program "more or less" which examines statistics & items in the news today (Feb14th)

There was a discussion on the accuracy of reported fatality and confirmed infection rates for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak.
The problem of "mild" cases missing from the records was one point raised.

Too much detail to repeat here as I was driving and didn't record the information.