Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[cupid_stunt]

JCB is the first major UK manufacturer to announce they are cutting production, due to problems getting components from china.

There will be reduced working hours for the 4,000 staff from Monday and an immediate suspension of overtime.

More than 25% of JCB's suppliers in China are closed, while others are working at reduced capacity.

"The disruption to the component supply chain in the UK comes at a time when demand for JCB products is very strong, so while this course of action is very unfortunate, it is absolutely necessary to protect the business and our skill base," JCB chief operating officer Mark Turner said.

"We are keeping the situation under review and we anticipate a surge in production levels once this period of supply disruption has passed."

JCB cuts production because of coronavirus

The heavy machinery manufacturer says the virus will cause a shortage of parts from China.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[brogdale]

🗣⛩⁉

 

[sihhi]

Singapore reprts 9 new confirmed cases total now at 68. Apparently 14% are in critical condition, which gives a sense of how lethal this could all be.

Singapore is still hunting for the patient zero of the hotel outbreak.

Tracking down COVID-19 ‘patient zero’ critical, authorities say

As lion dancers snaked between conference room tables laden with plastic bottles, pens, notebooks and laptops, some staff from British gas analytics firm Servomex snapped photos of the performance meant to bring good luck and fortune.

www.news.com.au

Been looking at this again: Epidemiological and clinical features of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China

About 25.5%, 69.9% and 4.5% patients were diagnosed with severe pneumonia, mild pneumonia, and non-pneumonia, respectively.

The overall CFR was estimated be 3.06% (95% CI 2.02-4.59%)

The R0 was estimated to be 3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05), ranging 2.23-4.82 in sensitivity analyses varying the incubation and infectious periods.

The 3% fatality rate, 95% contracting some level of pneumonia mean this thing is simply a juggernaut, waiting to explode.

 

[Teaboy]

14% seems unusually high.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Televangelist sells $125 'Silver Solution' as cure for Coronavirus

Before I even clicked the link I thought it would be that survivalist food idiot.

 

[Supine]

The 3% fatality rate, 95% contracting some level of pneumonia mean this thing is simply a juggernaut, waiting to explode.

Bit OTT on the scaremongering

 

[a_chap]

About a week ago my dentist tweeted that members of the public were coming into his practise asking if he could sell them face masks! He said he was going to start storing them under lock and key.

Face masks, that is, not members of the public.

 

[Teaboy]

🗣⛩⁉

View attachment 198483

What is is that? If someone thinks this is a black swan they clearly don't know what a black swan is.

 

[Supine]

Lots of focus on drug supply as China manufacturers a huge number of API's. The industry will scale-up manufacturing outside of China to compensate where possible.

How will coronavirus hit U.S. drugmakers? Depends what kind of drugmaker you are: Moody's

There’s no doubt the novel coronavirus outbreak poses a major threat to people’s health. But for U.S. biopharma companies, the fallout isn't as certain—and some will likely suffer more than others, Moody’s said. Branded drugmakers may see decreased demand while generics players face disrupted...

www.fiercepharma.com

 

[Virtual Blue]

Lucky you, I caught that, 3 weeks of hell, sweating like fuck, because it hit the UK in the summer months.

I've had flu a few times over the years, from mild to severe, but that was off the scale.

My mate caught Swine Flu when he lived in Miami.
It fucked him up for 3 months.

 

[elbows]

Can anyone comment on the difference between government response to H1N1 and the corona? Complaints of racism are doing the rounds.

In my opinion the key difference in the response to H1N1 compared to this coronavirus came from the top internationally, and this affected how individual nations then behaved.

With H1N1, within days of this new flu being disclosed publicly, the World Health Organisation concluded that a strategy of attempting containment was not viable. This is a total contrast to this coronavirus, where the World Health Organisation and others decided to try containment.

These differences do not surprise me, for a number of reasons. Firstly there is no general expectation of containing a flu outbreak if the flu has achieved efficient human to human transmission. When new forms of bird flu were spotted, containment was the order of the day, because there was only limited human to human transmission, no widespread community outbreaks, etc. But by the time they got a handle on the H1N1 swine flu, there had already been some very large community outbreaks in Mexico, and evidence of community spread in parts of the USA too.

Even then, there were still some consideration by some countries of restricting travel to Mexico, and warnings about travel to the USA and Mexico were issued. But the global spread was seen as inevitable, and this affected how individual countries responded, and the length of time that most of the focus fell on countries like Mexico and the USA.

There is no doubt in my mind that racism and politics has also played a part in the response to this coronavirus. And the phase with the biggest opportunities for this to happen has been more elongated already with this coronavirus than it was with H1N1, because we have this prolonged containment phase this time that was absent before. Chinas reputation as a censoring, authoritarian one party state, inevitably sets it up for suspicion and mistrust. And it can be hard to separate all the legitimate criticisms along those lines from other attitudes to China that are unfair, racist, prejudiced, the lingering dregs of Orientalism. Its there in different degrees in different media too, for example its more blatant in the New York Times than the Guardian, but in some ways its more scary when its done in a more insidious way.

 

[2hats]

Recent mathematical modelling (Dorigatti et al, 10 Feb, scaled from a non-parametric Kaplan-Meier-like method previously used for SARS) puts the overall case fatality ratio at 0.9% (95% CI 0.5%-4%).

Separately I note comorbidities appear to be diabetes and hypertension, possibly along with an as yet unidentified genetic factor.

 

[elbows]

Separately I note comorbidities appear to be diabetes and hypertension, possibly along with an as yet unidentified genetic factor.

If early hunches turn out to have any relevance to the genetic factor, it could be the prevalence of ACE2 in certain tissue. I havent seen enough quality data about ACE2 prevalence, I know there was an early study on this that suggested that asians might have more ACE2, but this was based on only 8 lung samples! And a subsequent study disagreed. Being male and a smoker is also suggested to increase ACE2, but I draw no conclusions from this limited research.

 

[elbows]

Regarding racism and the media, different framing of the same article can make a big difference too.

The New York Times recently faced a twitter backlash, deleted a tweet and reissued it with rather different wording....

 

[Miss-Shelf]

Saw this on twitter
Apparently he does daily updates

 

[elbows]

14% seems unusually high.

Stuff I read but dont have to hand right now suggests there are actually 6 cases still in critical care in Singapore.

 

[kalidarkone]

Let's work at home

That will totally negate my work

 

[Teaboy]

That will totally negate my work

But what a time to be a criminal! What are the police going to do? Catch you by telephone?

 

[SpookyFrank]

Recent mathematical modelling (Dorigatti et al, 10 Feb, scaled from a non-parametric Kaplan-Meier-like method previously used for SARS) puts the overall case fatality ratio at 0.9% (95% CI 0.5%-4%).

Separately I note comorbidities appear to be diabetes and hypertension, possibly along with an as yet unidentified genetic factor.

0.9% is at the better end of the early range of predictions at least.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Relatable...

 

[SpookyFrank]

The 3% fatality rate, 95% contracting some level of pneumonia mean this thing is simply a juggernaut, waiting to explode.

Do juggernauts explode, as a rule?

 

[Cid]

It’s powderkegs that explode, juggernauts don’t stop.

 

[two sheds]

Unless they're filled with explosives

 

[brogdale]

What is is that? If someone thinks this is a black swan they clearly don't know what a black swan is.

Was havin' a laff...but do feel free, if you want to...

 

[2hats]

0.9% is at the better end of the early range of predictions at least.

Depending on how long infected individuals test positive for it could be even lower.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Depending on how long infected individuals test positive for it could be even lower.

I assume a certain percentage of cases going undetected has been factored into the modelling.

 

[maomao]

Do they use a fresh mask for each patient then? You'd think they'd just wash them.

 

[xenon]

m being thick here right. But what's the big panic. lazy media bullshit aside. What's the big deal about this thing anyway. It has a 98% survival rate. Is it the risk it will mutate into something more lethal? But virus's don't tend to do that, as they need a living host. I mean it's no Spannish flu is it.

I don't get all the fuss TBH.

 

[maomao]

m being thick here right. But what's the big panic. lazy media bullshit aside. What's the big deal about this thing anyway. It has a 98% survival rate. Is it the risk it will mutate into something more lethal? But virus's don't tend to do that, as they need a living host. I mean it's no Spannish flu is it.

I don't get all the fuss TBH.

If half the country got it 2% dead would be well over half a million people. In this country.

 

[xenon]

If half the country got it 2% dead would be well over half a million people. In this country.

Yes good point. Should have thought about it a bit longer. Of course, whilst a number like that is stark, the sheer chaos of having the other 98% of a large population incompacitated to a lesser or greater degree will fuck all sorts of things up.


<resumes panic mode>