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[sihhi]

Are you sure you havent got the date backwards? Machine translation of that article says January 12th, Not December 1st!

And the various January dates throughout the article are entirely consistent with the period in January which we already know clearly shows authorities had an evolving picture of the outbreak that they were not shared publicly. A period that ended in a transition to a more serious picture given to the public during the week of Jan 20th.

Yes I am going crazy, 12 January.

The strange thing is this from an unnamed

“我们一直在关注武汉情况，内部早早下了通知，对发热、咳嗽患者留意，并在全市范围部署”，前述人士提到，应对疫情，在1月12日之前北京市已经形成一套接诊流程，接到有疑似症状的患者要及时向市卫健委汇报。北京早部署相当关键。接近地坛医院的消息人士告诉财新记者，大兴患者主要是在武汉参加一次婚礼后感染，从未去过海鲜市场。

'We were constantly mindful of the situation in Wuhan, the city department had very early on issued a notice warning to keep on the lookout for patients with a temperature and cough, to cover the whole city.' This person also noted that before 12th January Beijing city had already formed a protocol in how to accept patients, when suspected patients were received it had to be reported to city Health and welfare committee. This early posture was crucial in Beijing.
A source close to Beijing DItan Hospital told Caixin reporter that patients from Daxing were infected after attending a wedding in Wuhan, they never visited the seafood market.

 

[billy_bob]

I have a cold coming on. Am wondering if I should just accept my fate and chuck meself off a viaduct now before They lock me up on a cruise ship.

 

[elbows]

Yes I am going crazy, 12 January.

The strange thing is this from an unnamed

“我们一直在关注武汉情况，内部早早下了通知，对发热、咳嗽患者留意，并在全市范围部署”，前述人士提到，应对疫情，在1月12日之前北京市已经形成一套接诊流程，接到有疑似症状的患者要及时向市卫健委汇报。北京早部署相当关键。接近地坛医院的消息人士告诉财新记者，大兴患者主要是在武汉参加一次婚礼后感染，从未去过海鲜市场。

'We were constantly mindful of the situation in Wuhan, the city department had very early on issued a notice warning to keep on the lookout for patients with a temperature and cough, to cover the whole city.' This person also noted that before 12th January Beijing city had already formed a protocol in how to accept patients, when suspected patients were received it had to be reported to city Health and welfare committee. This early posture was crucial in Beijing.
A source close to Beijing DItan Hospital told Caixin reporter that patients from Daxing were infected after attending a wedding in Wuhan, they never visited the seafood market.

A bunch of the first clinical cases discussed in a paper did not have direct links to the market themselves, so by the time these cases showed up in the heath system and raised alarms, some signs of community spread were present too.

I've taken a look at the December and January timeline before, I dont have the energy to do it again properly now. But it is reasonable to say that by some stage in December they new it was a big deal, and that the last days of December and the first weeks of January would have been a time of rapidly expanding clues as to the disease and community spread. It would be useful to know exactly what date 'before January 12th' relates to, but it does fit what we already know. The way the number of cases turning up at hospital in Wuhan was doubling quickly, the first signs of healthcare workers getting infected, these things started to be come clear no later than early January, and I dont think they were hidden from central authorities, so Beijing being on alert on or before January 12th fits.

When it comes to lag, there are certainly periods where knowledge and detection of the outbreak would lag 1-3 weeks behind. And there are certainly signs of a separate, man-made 1-3 week lag between what the authorities knew/suspected and what was publicly said in January. The extent of these lags has shifted over time, and its actually easier for me to take a fair stab at estimating how this stuff went in December and up to January 20th than since then.

 

[elbows]

Given how infuriating counterproductive shit can be at work, thinking about or observing such things in the context of attempting to contain a large outbreak, or fighting a war, really puts the dodgy icing on the cake of my opinion of the triumphs and efficiencies of human endeavour.

Here we go, welcome to the absurdities of containment show.

Will the virus respect the arbitrary numbers of our definition?

Good luck sustaining public faith in this mission.

From Coronavirus latest updates: London GP surgery closed – live news

Commenting on the safety of the Uber driver who drove the woman, Dr Rachel Thorn Heathcock, consultant at Public Health England, said:
We are in contact with Uber to ensure the driver receives advice and information on what to do should they feel unwell in the coming days. As the journey was less than 15 minutes, the driver did not have close sustained contact with the individual and are not considered high risk. We would like to thank Uber for their cooperation.

 

[Tankus]

London underground.....best virus distribution system ever

 

[cupid_stunt]

Isolation pods, AKA portacabins, have been set up outside Worthing Hospital's A&E dept.

 

[two sheds]

Unlike the case labelled super-spreader the other day, who was hailed by the authorities as a great example of following the advice (call 111, dont travel around and visit healthcare facilities of your own accord), this London case will now be held up as an example of someone disregarding all the advice.

Did she know she was infected? (sorry I've not followed the story)

 

[elbows]

Did she know she was infected? (sorry I've not followed the story)

Probably fell ill and at that point suspected they themselves were infected, but proof only comes after testing.

I'm not even very interested in the detail of this case, in that I would not want to vilify or punish the person involved. I do support the incident being talked about though because it can help spread the message of what people are actually supposed to do in this situation. But with the caveat that its not like the system is going to respond in a timely manner to all those who follow the proper advice.

BBC touch on some of these issues.

Coronavirus: More may need to self-isolate to stop spread - NHS boss

The warning comes as it emerges the ninth person to contract the virus went to hospital in an Uber.

www.bbc.co.uk

The ninth UK case illustrates the challenge the authorities face in trying to contain the coronavirus. The guidance is clear about what to do if you suspect you might be infected. Phone NHS 111 and self-isolate yourself.

Jumping into an Uber and heading into a busy A&E unit - where there will be lots of people with potentially weakened immune systems - is the last thing someone should be doing.

We don't know why the ninth case did this. They could have been unaware of the advice. They may have been scared. Or they may have had trouble getting through to 111 or have been unhappy with the response.

I have heard from people who have self-isolated themselves after becoming ill after returning from one of the at-risk countries, but then complained they were frustrated about the slow response from the NHS.

 

[two sheds]

Ta

I can imagine someone comes down with what they think is flu and wouldn't necessarily realize. If someone tells me they have an infection and they're calling round I tend to ask them to stay away because I'm prone to chest infections and they fuck me over. I think some people feel I'm overreacting but I consider that their problem rather than mine

 

[weltweit]

London underground.....best virus distribution system ever

Funnily enough I was thinking exactly that last night. If infected people travel by tube they could spread it enormously. Fingers crossed it won't come to that.

 

[brogdale]

Ta

I can imagine someone comes down with what they think is flu and wouldn't necessarily realize. If someone tells me they have an infection and they're calling round I tend to ask them to stay away because I'm prone to chest infections and they fuck me over. I think some people feel I'm overreacting but I consider that their problem rather than mine

Likewise; which is why I get very angry at anti-social public coughers (a growing trend IMO)

 

[weltweit]

My boss had a cold today, I was sitting next to him but when I realised I moved away.

Did I move far enough away, I am not sure.

But what are people to do when they have a cold, not go to work at all?

 

[two sheds]

 

[two sheds]

My boss had a cold today, I was sitting next to him but when I realised I moved away.

Did I move far enough away, I am not sure.

But what are people to do when they have a cold, not go to work at all?

Well ideally I'd say yes but companies don't look favourably on that I've never understood that - why would you want all your workers infected by demanding someone comes into work with an infectious disease?

Did all your co-workers move away leaving him in the middle of an empty circle?

 

[weltweit]

..
Did all your co-workers move away leaving him in the middle of an empty circle?

It was only me in the room with him, I was going to say something but refrained

 

[weltweit]

Are coronavirus tests flawed?

Concerns are being raised about the accuracy of the tests for the coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

There are deep concerns laboratory tests are incorrectly telling people they are free of the coronavirus.

Stories in several countries suggest people are having up to six negative results before finally being diagnosed.

At the first stage of incubation the amount of the virus in the person's system could be absolutely minimal, there must be a level (in the body) at which the test will not return a positive?

 

[Supine]

Good interview with an epidemiologist

Harvard expert says coronavirus likely now ‘gathering steam’

Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch said evidence indicates that the international cordon keeping coronavirus cases bottled up in China is a leaky one, and it’s likely that the relative handful of global cases reported so far are undercounted. If true, that will lead to widespread illness internationally...

news.harvard.edu

 

[elbows]

Are coronavirus tests flawed?

Concerns are being raised about the accuracy of the tests for the coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

At the first stage of incubation the amount of the virus in the person's system could be absolutely minimal, there must be a level (in the body) at which the test will not return a positive?

Thats one of the factors. That article does touch on it briefly, but has a lot of other possibilities to cover too.

Not just a question of the levels in the body, but where in the body, and are our swabs etc getting a fair sample from that area of the body? And there are unlikely to be hard and fast rules that apply to every patient.

I dont know how much rectal swabs have been used, but they would be something I'd include if I were trying to get the best picture of the situation that I could.

Anyway the questionable test accuracy is just the latest of the 'things we speculated about in theory that would make containment harder' that seem to have turned out to be sadly relevant to this coronavirus outbreak. I wonder whether our media will direct these false negative concerns to the UK tests anytime soon, or if sentiments relating to the UK testing regime will remain artificially isolated from this concern.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

I dont know how much rectal swabs have been used, but they would be something I'd include if I were trying to get the best picture of the situation that I could.

That might definitely put people off being tested.

 

[two sheds]

I was going to say "I'm not coming anywhere near you for a while" but was thinking the better of it

 

[maomao]

That might definitely put people off being tested.

Might attract some who otherwise wouldn't though.

 

[elbows]

Good interview with an epidemiologist

Harvard expert says coronavirus likely now ‘gathering steam’

Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch said evidence indicates that the international cordon keeping coronavirus cases bottled up in China is a leaky one, and it’s likely that the relative handful of global cases reported so far are undercounted. If true, that will lead to widespread illness internationally...

news.harvard.edu

Great stuff. Marc Lipsitch has been one of my best sources of info (in the media and his twitter account) since this thing became a big deal. It was him going on about Indonesia that tipped me off to the idea that they probably have undetected cases there, for example.

I see he was downplaying seasonal hopes, and pointing out that there is transmission in Singapore, and that country is tropical.

 

[elbows]

That might definitely put people off being tested.

I should point out that I didnt come up with the rectal swab idea myself. It catches me offguard too sometimes when it appears in the literature. Just the other week I was happily reading about Pangolins as possible intermediate host animal, and then the rectal swabs interjected themselves into the discussion without warning.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

It catches me offguard too sometimes

That's a normal reaction.

 

[sihhi]

Here we go, welcome to the absurdities of containment show.

Will the virus respect the arbitrary numbers of our definition?

Good luck sustaining public faith in this mission.

From Coronavirus latest updates: London GP surgery closed – live news

It makes no sense at all. The driver should be quarantined and family compensated.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Are coronavirus tests flawed?

Concerns are being raised about the accuracy of the tests for the coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

At the first stage of incubation the amount of the virus in the person's system could be absolutely minimal, there must be a level (in the body) at which the test will not return a positive?

Yes and that's why journalists who can't be arsed to do five minutes' research should probably keep their potentially panic-inducing bullshit to themselves.

If people are being given multiple tests before diagnosis, what does that tell us? That the people responding are aware of the limitations of the testing and so are using multiple tests over a long time scale to avoid false negatives or discharging people who should be in quarrantine.

 

[weltweit]

..
I see he was downplaying seasonal hopes, and pointing out that there is transmission in Singapore, and that country is tropical.

I thought our super spreader caught his dose in Singapore .. or was it elsewhere?

 

[elbows]

I thought our super spreader caught his dose in Singapore .. or was it elsewhere?

Yeah, the point wasnt that people catching it in Singapore was a new revelation, it wasnt. He was pointing it out as a reason not to overhype the potential of the seasons to stop the spread.

Its perfectly possible that seasons do have an impact, but whether that impact is a real difference-maker also depends on other factors unrelated to the seasons.

For example, the first big wave of swine flu in 2009 in the UK came in summer. But since then it has reverted to a seasonal pattern. It might very well be that the sheer quantity of potential candidates for infection was so high during the summer of the first wave (due to no existing immunity or vaccine), that seasonal effects of summer on transmission were not enough to stop widespread infection. But later, when there was more immunity in the population, the virus could only thrive with the help of winter conditions.

 

[elbows]

Yes and that's why journalists who can't be arsed to do five minutes' research should probably keep their potentially panic-inducing bullshit to themselves.

If people are being given multiple tests before diagnosis, what does that tell us? That the people responding are aware of the limitations of the testing and so are using multiple tests over a long time scale to avoid false negatives or discharging people who should be in quarrantine.

The speed with which some cases have been ruled negative in the UK does not give me any indication that multiple tests over a period of time are being used for all the UK suspected cases. But I am aware that I only see a very partial picture via the press and official stats and statements.

 

[weltweit]

Quite a reasonable article on the situation here in the UK here:

Britain's race to contain the coronavirus

Health officials are trying to contain the virus after a cluster of cases on the south coast. Can the virus be kept at bay?

www.bbc.co.uk