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[teuchter]

i think it might be saying that, If there's a place where not much covid has happened at all yet, then that place is a great spreading ground for any new version because people's immune systems will be.. naive?
So back in Summer 2020, lots of cities would have been not much use at generating new variants, which same places, now, would be (?)
Nope i have no idea. Still confused.

I'm not sure; I think it might be saying something slightly different which is that a new variant will have a harder time establishing itself if there's still a reasonable amount of 'old' version circulating, because it will be competing with it for hosts. The implication of that would be that a UK with very low covid prevalence this summer would be more at risk of seeing a new variant take hold, than a UK with quite high prevalence would be.

 

[bimble]

I'm not sure; I think it might be saying something slightly different which is that a new variant will have a harder time establishing itself if there's still a reasonable amount of 'old' version circulating, because it will be competing with it for hosts. The implication of that would be that a UK with very low covid prevalence this summer would be more at risk of seeing a new variant take hold, than a UK with quite high prevalence would be.

If thats true then why are people saying that UK opening up now, with high & rising cases, is the perfect conditions for generating a new variant?

 

[teuchter]

If thats true then why are people saying that UK opening up now, with high & rising cases, is the perfect conditions for generating a new variant?

Good conditions for generating a new variant might not be the same conditions that are the best for a new variant (generated elsewhere) to take hold.

 

[2hats]

i think it might be saying that, If there's a place where not much covid has happened at all yet, then that place is a great spreading ground for any new version because people's immune systems will be.. naive?

Degrees of immunity, but also perhaps (and quite possibly more so) degrees of behaviour.

 

[Dystopiary]

COVID strikes men and women unequally – from exposure risk, to healthcare access, to mortality, and even rare adverse vaccine effects – but clinical trials are lagging on analyzing their data by sex.



Thread from Prof Sabine Oertelt-Prigione:

 

[2hats]

Identification of a blood biomarker (IFI27, an interferon response gene) that could potentially be used to identify pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (though differentiation from a co-circulating influenza will require further work). In a first wave study of healthcare workers it identified SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals with 84% sensitivity and 95% specificity, correlating with viral load and independent of prevailing symptoms. A subset of individuals were IFI27 positive up to a week before their first positive PCR test.
DOI: 10.1016/S2666-5247(21)00146-4.

 

[Aladdin]

Ireland and Delta so far.

Not great.

Delta variant growth likely to ‘outmatch’ vaccine supply in coming weeks – Reid​

Delta variant growth likely to ‘outmatch’ vaccine supply in coming weeks – Reid

Modelling showed cases numbers will rise during July and probably peak in August

www.irishtimes.com

 

[The39thStep]

Indoor dining in Portugal Friday night and weekends will require either a digital certificate of full vaccination or a negative test ( to be .sold in supermarkets and taken outside the establishment). Drinking outside on the terraces not affected but max 6 people at table still applies.

 

[spring-peeper]

The premiere of the Canadian province of Quebec has a novel way of using vaccination card.

He will start issuing them to his fully vaccinated citizens in late September/early October.

The cards will be used in the event of another lockdown.
Fully vacinated people will not have to be in lockdown.
They will be able to go to work and all the other perks that lockdown prevents.

 

[2hats]

Delta/B.1.617.2 modelled to become the dominate variant in Japan before the opening of the Olympic Games (95%CI indicates no later than 22 July). Some sequencing data might suggest this has already happened, but sequence data over the last ~5 weeks has been sparse.

DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.27.2100570.

 

[Badgers]

The premiere of the Canadian province of Quebec has a novel way of using vaccination card.

He will start issuing them to his fully vaccinated citizens in late September/early October.

The cards will be used in the event of another lockdown.
Fully vacinated people will not have to be in lockdown.
They will be able to go to work and all the other perks that lockdown prevents.

Love it

 

[2hats]

The Netherlands. When you plot on a log scale and it still looks like you need to plot on a log scale, then alarm bells should be ringing.

Perhaps opening nightclubs, bars, etc unrestricted is not such a good idea.

Dutch reimpose COVID curbs as cases jump in young adults

The Dutch government reimposed COVID-19 curbs on nightclubs, music festivals and restaurants on Friday in an effort to halt a surge in COVID-19 infections among young adults.

www.reuters.com

 

[elbows]

Well to be fair it is a base-2 log scale rather than a base-10 log scale. But yeah, thats still an insanely short doubling time in their recent data! And those base-2 log scales sure are handy for easily seeing the doubling time.

 

[bimble]

I just got some news that’s brought home to me the absolute devastation that’s going on there. Old man who with his family has run a guesthouse in Delhi forever, that I’ve stayed at a few times over the years. He (goes by the Major) is in hospital with covid, and so is his daughter, and his wife died with it last week. Just unimaginable despair must be going on there, if one family can be hit like this. He’s very old.

Update.
the Major is dead, his wife (some 20+ years younger than him) is also dead, the daughter is still in hospital. their guesthouse in delhi is shuttered along with a load of other neighbouring concerns.
And all the hippies i know here who LOVE india so much because they went there once & got stoned are refusing the vaccine.

 

[David Clapson]

Very gloomy tweets from Devi Sridhar: "Delta is a game-changer even for those countries which found a good path in 2020. All countries struggling now in how to cope. Prolonged restrictions carry major harms. Associated economic hit across the world being just as destructive as COVID itself. It’s becoming an impossible political situation- too dangerous a virus to let spread uncontrolled, more & more transmissible, & lockdown not a solution."

 

[elbows]

World's first SARS-CoV-2 human challenge trials, to better understand minimally infective viral loads, shedding and transmission.

Call for volunteers for world’s first coronavirus human challenge study | Imperial News | Imperial College London

The UK will be the first country to run a Covid-19 human challenge study, following a favourable opinion from the UK’s clinical trials ethics body.

www.imperial.ac.uk

By the way the latest pubished SAGE minutes have this:

Initial results from human challenge studies in unvaccinated young adults were reported verbally and will be reviewed in detail at NERVTAG before being discussed at SAGE.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001160/S1300_SAGE_93_minutes_Coronavirus__COVID-19__response__7_July_2021.pdf

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Dutch PM apologises for reopening too soon
Restrictions on bars, restaurants and nightclubs have been reintroduced last Friday after 3 weeks.

 

[Achieve Greatne]

France mandates Covid health pass for restaurants and cafés

The permits will also be required for entry to hospitals, shopping centres and to board long-distance trains

www.theguardian.com

Will be interesting to see how this goes down with the French. Doesn't take much to throw the toys out the pram. Although not much point blocking the ports with a few burning cows right now.

 

[Flavour]

I think there are a lot more cases in Italy than what is being reported. Testing levels are very low. But death rates also continue to be very low so the government is riding that wave of "maybe it won't be so bad" and I guess we'll just have to see how long that lasts. Nightclubs and other mass gatherings still banned.

 

[bimble]

Some bits of India where there's serious issues with vaccine hesitancy have been running prize draws for those who do come forward & get jabbed, where you can win things like a fridge or an electric fan. It's not a bad idea obvs but is slightly reminiscent of the days when they used to hand out transistor radios to villagers who agreed to get a vasectomy.

COVID-19: Gold coins, appliances offered to inspire people to get vaccinated in Indian state

Initiative part of a campaign to encourage villagers who are reluctant to get the jab

gulfnews.com

 

[Flavour]

Spain very much back in the game

Incidence rate of Covid-19 in Spain shoots up to 436 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, a level last seen in February

The Health Ministry is planning on passing a decree that will make home-testing kits available to members of the public without the need for a prescription

english.elpais.com

 

[Supine]

Malaysia seem to be doing well on vaccination rollout

They appear to have photo booths you can use when jabbed

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Ha noi is in lockdown, food shops and parmacies only allowed to open (from a friend who lives there)
And this report from 3 days ago saying it faces medical collapse amid case rise

 

[2hats]

Freedom!!

 

[Badgers]

Freedom!!

#worldbeating

 

[ruffneck23]

Well that changed quickly

 

[Badgers]

Well that changed quickly

View attachment 279464

Once again leaving it to take hold before making sensible changes

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Once again leaving it to take hold before making sensible changes

only for and a bit months though, what could go wrong?

 

[Badgers]

only for and a bit months though, what could go wrong?

Understandably furious...

Nightclub owners are reacting angrily to news that Covid passports will be made mandatory in their venues from the end of September.

Michael Kill, CEO of the Night Time Industries Association, says so-called "freedom day" for night clubs "lasted around 17 hours" and the situation is "an absolute shambles".

He said only a week ago Health Secretary Sajid Javid said vaccine passports would not be compulsory.

It is a shit fest and the governcunts are trying to please businesses while ruining them.

Just nightclubs or music venues? Pubs? Restaurants?

 

[ruffneck23]

I don’t know about you , but I knew this was coming, cos I always knew they were cunts