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1613756100712.png

LOL

Although the US appears to be having nearly the same reduction in cases as we are, yet they are heavy on the anti-mask die at work or on the streets kinda society.
I've not seen a solid explanation for this even by respected people
 
I love the way many Americans feel compelled to add their qualification at the end of their name. I have authority!
 
MrSki said:
Not seen this confirmed but could be very bad news.

Click to expand...


Seems to be reported by a few outlets, so far no transmission between people, and only mild cases.
Russia said it found the world’s first cases of H5N8 avian influenza in humans though the virus isn’t yet spreading between people.

Authorities have sent information on the seven cases detected in workers at a poultry farm in southern Russia to the World Health Organization, Anna Popova, the country’s public-health chief, said in televised comments on Saturday.

“It is not transmitted from person to person. But only time will tell how soon future mutations will allow it to overcome this barrier,” she said. The discovery of this strain now “gives us all, the whole world, time to prepare for possible mutations and the possibility to react in a timely way and develop test systems and vaccines.”

The affected workers at the poultry farm, where an outbreak among birds was reported in December, had mild cases and have recovered, Popova said.

According to the WHO website, “Though human infections with A(H5) viruses are rare and generally occur in individuals exposed to sick or dead infected birds (or their environments), they can lead to severe illness or death in humans.” Six of 14 cases of H5N6 avian flu in humans reported since 2014 were fatal, the WHO said in a post dated Nov. 2016.
Click to expand...

www.bloomberg.com

Uber Loses U.K. Ruling on Drivers in Blow to Gig Economy

Uber Technologies Inc. lost a U.K. Supreme Court ruling over the rights of its drivers, in a landmark decision that strikes a blow against the gig economy.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

And, this strain has already been found in poultry, in the UK.

www.thenorthernecho.co.uk

Warning issued after outbreak of bird flu in Redcar which affects Hartlepool, Seaton Carew and other areas

POULTRY keepers in Hartlepool are being warned that highly pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 (bird flu) has been confirmed in the region.
www.thenorthernecho.co.uk www.thenorthernecho.co.uk
 
cupid_stunt said:
Seems to be reported by a few outlets, so far no transmission between people, and only mild cases.


www.bloomberg.com

Uber Loses U.K. Ruling on Drivers in Blow to Gig Economy

Uber Technologies Inc. lost a U.K. Supreme Court ruling over the rights of its drivers, in a landmark decision that strikes a blow against the gig economy.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

And, this strain has already been found in poultry, in the UK.

www.thenorthernecho.co.uk

Warning issued after outbreak of bird flu in Redcar which affects Hartlepool, Seaton Carew and other areas

POULTRY keepers in Hartlepool are being warned that highly pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 (bird flu) has been confirmed in the region.
www.thenorthernecho.co.uk www.thenorthernecho.co.uk
Click to expand...
Also:
swans in China, Czech and Austria
crows in India
pheasants in Finland and Anglesey
cranes in Italy
Sout Korea, Algeria, Northern Ireland, Japan...
 
The extent of any human to human transmission is certainly key. When I was learning about pandemics earlier this century, I saw someone who should have known better get it all wrong, jump the gun and declare that a H5N1 bird flu pandemic had begun. In great part because they misread some possible sign of very limited human to human transmission as being the sort of strong human to human transmission that has real and imminent pandemic potential. And its certainly not that hard to make a mistake in that area given that phases where authorities make statements about 'limited human to human transmission' in order to buy thsemselves a little time in terms of where they think things are going compared to what signals they want to send the public.

So I dont pay much attention to various strains of bird flu in terms of expecting imminent pandemic doom, unless I see clues that there is community spread. Even limited human to human transmission in very close settings, eg between family members of someone who worked with poultry, is not enough. Well, its enough for me to poke around looking for signs that the situation is worse than authorities are admitting. But it doesnt sound like the H5N8 in Russia story is enough to trigger my interest at this point.
 
It should be reassuring that Russia hasn't found human to human transmission with H5N8, and I hope they are right.

OTOH, China said the same about SARS-CoV2, and look at the mess the world is in now.
 
teuchter said:
Looks like the kind of Twitter account you can definitely trust for reliable science reporting.
Click to expand...

They publish some proper leaks. Including that gov pandemic response excercise from a few years ago. The one that showed the gov had completed none of the recommendations.
 
Supine said:
They publish some proper leaks. Including that gov pandemic response excercise from a few years ago. The one that showed the gov had completed none of the recommendations.
Click to expand...
Publishing leaks is a different skill from assessing the epidemiological implications of a newly reported bird flu strain, I'd say.
 
teuchter said:
Bad luck that this one happened to be their first ever unreliable bit of information then.
Click to expand...
Well that is still to be determined whether the seven people all caught it from livestock or whether any of them caught it off each other. It happened in December & only broke today so we shall see.
 
MrSki said:
Well that is still to be determined whether the seven people all caught it from livestock or whether any of them caught it off each other. It happened in December & only broke today so we shall see.
Click to expand...
The tweet stated
this is the first cases of human transition in history & has the potential to begin a new pandemic!
Click to expand...
which appears to be nonsense.
 
teuchter said:
The tweet stated

which appears to be nonsense.
Click to expand...
What is the source for the story? As said above the Covid-19 was not said to have H to H transmission by China but look what happened there.

Time will tell but you trying to take the piss out of my post because of the name of the tweeter has been shown not to be bollocks & you are now trying to cover your arse by arguing the toss. :thumbs:

teuchter said:
Looks like the kind of Twitter account you can definitely trust for reliable science reporting.
Click to expand...
Maybe you were not being sarcastic? :D
 
Even if the Twitter account turned out to be totally reliable my initial post still stands, in full.
Also, I bet whoever writes it owns some camo gear.
 
teuchter said:
The tweet stated

which appears to be nonsense.
Click to expand...

Which bit is nonsense?

There are a bunch of bird inflenzas that are considered to have pandemic potential. Its just there is another step or two that needs to be demonstrated before the chances that that potential is actually being unlocked are considered high.

But the theoretical potential is there so they want to ensure there is surveillance of situations where outbreaks are detected in birds, or where there is bird->human transmission. That is why international health regulations require countries to report a bunch of flu strains if they detect them. Which Russia has done.

So I wouldnt say the tweet is utter nonsense, but I could accuse it of using strong and sloppy language that may mislead people as to the pandemic potential. If I had written the tweet I would not have used the word transition, and I would have explained pandemic potential more thoroughly. I think I'm actually in need of a term for the in-between stage, because authorities probably only go on about pandemic potential when they suspect limited human->human transmission has probably occurred. Even at that stage a pandemic is not inevitable, but its fairer to start talking more freely about the potential then. So what would we call a virus thats still missing a bit of the capabilities required to spread effectively between humans, but can infect humans on a more limited basis? They are all viruses of concern in my book, its more a question of finding the right language to describe better the level of concern.

Previously the WHO had not updated their public assessment of H5N8 for a little over 4 years. Here is the November 2016 version if anyone is interested. Since Russia has reported the outbreak to them, they will likely issue some updated bulletin at some point.

Assessment of risk associated with influenza A(H5N8) virus

www.who.int www.who.int

The broader subject is covered by the WHO here, although if you look at their December 2020 bulletin I dont think you'll find a mention of H5N8 because there were no recent cases to report on at the time, other bird flu's were capturing more of their attention.

www.who.int

Avian and other zoonotic influenza

Avian and other zoonotic influenza
www.who.int www.who.int

Human-animal interface is quite the jargon.
 
StoneRoad said:
It's not April the oneth, is it ?

I really can't believe this report ...
Coronavirus in Tanzania: The country that's rejecting the vaccine - BBC News

a smoothie vs vaccination ???? - that's wooer than normal woo

Definitely not going there !
Click to expand...

WHO attempting to persuade Tanzania that Covid is real and that they need to do something (like vaccinate)

Covid: WHO pleads with Tanzania to start reporting cases - BBC News

some of the detail in that is as alarming as the "smoothie" story I linked to above ...
 
Portugal - No road map here in Portugal . Press conference today :

Asked about the possible beginning of a process of deflation and if it will start before March, the Minister of Health underlined that it is necessary to do " a very cautious, prudent and thoughtful assessment ”and“ we cannot intend to move from one extreme to the other in a time that is not compatible with what is the control of this pandemic ”.

"This is the time to focus on containing the transmission of the disease, improving the response in areas other than Covid, betting on the speed of the vaccination process and on the protection of the most fragile and vulnerable", defended Marta Temido.

“This is not yet the time to talk about times and manners. We will get there ”, he concluded.

The Minister of Health says that the Government is currently reflecting “on the times when we should start to apply measures of deflation and how we should start to apply them”, and confirms that the deflation will begin with schools. "If the last closure we would like was for schools, it is consistent that the reversal process starts with schools", says Marta Temido.
Click to expand...

Lowest case and death figures for some time but as this data collected from Sunday we can take that with a pinch of salt to be honest . However the trend is healthy if uneven with Lisbon and the North still responsible for the majority of cases and deaths.

1614026823831.png

We are, on the 20th, with an incidence of 322 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants" , affirmed Peralta Santos, from the General Directorate of Health. "And also with a weekly variation of very sharp decrease" .

Although the cumulative incidence at 14 days per 100 thousand inhabitants has decreased, "there are areas of the territory with relatively high incidence", mainly in the region of Lisbon and Vale do Tejo, in the Center and Alentejo.

"There are already only a few municipalities with an incidence greater than 960" , confirmed the specialist, adding that "there are already vast areas of the territory with an incidence of less than 240 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants".
Click to expand...

The vaccine rollout is very slow compared to the UK , its confinment that is forcing the levels down but the DGS say that there ' the downward trend of all age groups" remains, with the population aged 80 and over being still "the group with the highest incidence at the moment", despite being " lower and with levels of incidence at the level of November ".

Analyzing the epidemiological situation in Portugal, compared to other European countries, Baltazar Nunes stated that the country currently has the lowest R value in Europe.


The impact of the British variant:

João Paulo Gomes, specialist at the Ricardo Jorge Institute, updated the status of the genetic variants of the coronavirus in Portugal, at the Infarmed meeting.

The specialist started by addressing the British variant, since it is the one that has had "much greater expression in our country".

"This variant of the United Kingdom, already seen in 87 countries, has a maximum expression in England," he explained. But in Portugal we are already in a situation of stabilization after "a sharp exponential growth".

"Since December 1, Unilabs has detected more than 10,000 cases caused by the UK variant, in a total of about 53,000 cases," continued the expert."We can estimate that, from December 1st until yesterday, about 150 thousand cases of Covid-19 have already occurred in Portugal caused by the United Kingdom variant" .

In Portugal the estimate was that at this point the variant would represent 65 percent of the cases, which did not happen "thanks to the confinement we are experiencing" , said João Paulo Gomes. Currently, it is estimated that the variant represents 48 percent of the cases in the country.

The researcher considered that exponential growth would be expected to continue, which has not been the case, being on a plateau. For João Paulo Gomes, the "very rigid" confinement that the country is experiencing, may be the explanation for having blocked transmission chains.

"In January we made a three-week projection that indicated that in week six - last week - about 65 percent of new cases were caused by this variant. This did not happen thanks to confinement. The data indicates that we have about 48 percent percent of new cases caused by this variant and without a growing trend , " said the INSA expert, noting that in the United Kingdom a prevalence of this variant is already estimated at more than 90 percent.

However, the INSA researcher warned that with the future lack of continuity, a recovery in the growth rate of infections due to this variant will be expected, as it is more transmissible.

"By blocking the processes of secondary transmission, a more transmissible variant will have lost that advantage over the others and this may explain the lack of growth. When we suspect it, it will continue here and the normal thing is that we can see new exponential growth. to establish a balance between the lack of confidence and the immunity of the group so desired, which will be achieved with the massive vaccination process, but also by the thousands of Portuguese who have already been infected " , he said
Click to expand...
 
From RTP ( Portugal News)


Researchers from the Ricardo Jorge Institute concluded that the United Kingdom and Italy were the countries that had the most weight in the transmission of the virus in Portugal. The study shows that by March 2020, at least 277 infected people from 36 countries entered the country.
Click to expand...
 
I think the UK should just donate is the supply of J&J vaccines to a country like the Czech Republic who were desperate for vaccines, only 5.5 million could do them all.

The39thStep said:
From RTP ( Portugal News)
Click to expand...

This just lends credence to the lockdown quickly and hard. The benefits are both economic and in lives saved.
 
Sunray said:
I think the UK should just donate is the supply of J&J vaccines to a country like the Czech Republic who were desperate for vaccines, only 5.5 million could do them all.
Click to expand...

I can see a case for releasing it, but why donate it? They can pay for it, no reason for UK taxpayers to foot the bill for vaccines in other European countries.
.
Besides, I doubt the EU would allow that, they would want to share it amongst member states.

And, if we could release supplies to a single EU state, surely we should start with Ireland, in view of the common travel area arrangements.
 
It can be amazing what you get back when a gift of life is given. The EU doesn't have that level of control. Just need to get the import approval from the Czechs.

I don't see the point of sharing them out in dribs and drabs, vaccines work best when everyone gets one, they only have 5.5 million people, badly affected. We've ordered 17 million doses. Its a single dose.
 
Sunray said:
I don't see the point of sharing them out in dribs and drabs, vaccines work best when everyone gets one, they only have 5.5 million people, badly affected. We've ordered 17 million doses. Its a single dose.
Click to expand...

The Republic of Ireland has a similiar population, a land border with the UK, and part of a common travel area with the UK, IoM & Channel Islands.

The Czech Republic has borders with a lot more countries and are part of a far greater common travel area.

As you say, vaccines work best when everyone gets one, far better for the UK to start with Ireland, if that's an option.
 
Start with Ireland, Falklands, Barbados, Tristan Da Cunha, Ascension, Pitcairn, Gibraltar, South Georgia, Turks & Caicos, Jersey, Gurnsey, Isle Of Man, Montserrat, British Virgin Islands.
 
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