cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I still don't believe their figures.
Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more
- Thread starter weltweit
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weltweit
Well-Known Member
No, me neither ..
Though my not believing their figures doesn't mean they didn't do a good job supressing the virus. I think their lockdown was more stringent than ours, and their contact tracing also sounds like it was a serious business.
Just a shame they didn't apply it earlier they could have saved millions of lives worldwide.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Did you say millions for effect? or do you genuinely feel deaths will reach millions? At the moment the global death toll that is registered is 147,508 (from Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,196,569 Cases and 147,509 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer) I suppose we haven't yet seen large outbreaks in India, South America, Africa .. so there will be lots more to come.
I meant millions. We'll never know the true figure because the poorer countries simply won't be able to count. I've mentioned it before but countries like India and Brazil have large slums and large rural poor. No one gives a fuck about them and no one will be recording what they died of. And these are two of the theoretically wealthier countries. What about Bangladesh? What about the chaos that is Central America? Laos? Cambodia only had one officially confirmed case weeks and weeks after the virus had spread like wildfire across SE and E Asia.
Our own country is clearly cooking the books to hide the bodies. I have no doubt that is being replicated across the globe.
Anju
Well-Known Member
A bit of good news from India. Early intervention and the best healthcare system in the country plus providing food seems to have contained the spread in Kerala. I had no idea that Kerala was a communist run state.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...52e470-783e-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...52e470-783e-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Teaboy yes you could be right with poorer countries not counting. And slums will be easy to infect for this virus.
Do you really think UK is trying to cook the books? I know the official figures they report at their 5pm briefing don't include care and home death, only being deaths in hospital but I believe they are totalling up care and home deaths ..
Do you really think UK is trying to cook the books? I know the official figures they report at their 5pm briefing don't include care and home death, only being deaths in hospital but I believe they are totalling up care and home deaths ..
I do. There is a question to consider though if you have limited testing who is more important a living person or a dead person? Quite frankly though they both need testing for obvious reasons.
The government has already said 'we' will do really well to keep the deaths in the low 20 thousands. Who fancies a bet that is exactly what the official figures will say when all this is over?
elbows
Well-Known Member
They started off saying below 20,000. The figure has been largely absent recently.
I dont think they will even keep the hospital deaths below that, let alone the other deaths which get picked up by the ONS.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I gather ONS figures show figures that can be compared to deaths 12 months ago which might indicate how many more people overall are dying now, from whatever reasons.
I don't gamble
.. I don't know which model gave that estimation of 20k but there are some which give higher figures also. Because I have been mainly interested in what is happening around the world I haven't been focussing on the UK, but I believe recent death rates of 800 plus a day does suggest we will pass 20k and might go on after that .. Whatever, daily deaths exceed filling London's Nightingale's 500 beds and all of the occupants of each of those 500 beds dying and being moved to the mortuary - every single day - such visualisations are grim!
2hats
Dust.
Still on target for the various UK models' ~49K (in the first wave alone).
elbows
Well-Known Member
Almost, they compare this years deaths to an average of deaths during the same week of the year, over a number of years, not just last year.
The official counts will obviously (and appropriately) never include the deaths that will occur due to an overloaded health system being unable to respond to non-covid related matters or the results of additional poverty due to lockdown or people not being able to do certain critical things at certain points in their lives. But these are all consequences of the pandemic. Out of eight billion people on the planet, it’s not unreasonable to think that 0.02% of them might die early as a result of this, giving us millions of deaths.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Some of the numbers wont show that, but so far in press conferences they have not really shied away from the subject of deaths from the pandemic/response to pandemic that were not deaths from Covid-19 directly. The subject of comparing the normal mortality rates to the mortality rate we actually end up with each week this year and further into the future is very much in tune with this, and it hasnt been hidden, its had some focus recently (mostly because it was only recently that we had any ONS data for the period, due to the lag).
Yossarian
⏭️
Yep - they're an authoritarian state with highly advanced facial recognition technology etc., making them probably better poised than any country in the world to tightly control an outbreak. Instead, after concluding there was a likely pandemic, they didn't inform the public for six days, allowing millions of people to leave Wuhan for other parts of China and overseas - and allowed 40,000 families to try to break the record for the world's biggest banquet.
Who says the New Year has no flavor? More than 40,000 families in Wuhan's Baibuting community dine together
Yesterday, Wuhan Jiangan District Baibuting community held the 20th Wanjia Banquet, more than 40,000 families out of 13986 dishes, we eat while chatting, enjoy the Lunar New Year. Chutian Metropolitan News Journalist Li Hui Taking a Wanjia Banquet Wu Shuzhen and her food 'Happy Canteen' Chutian...
en.australia51.com
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Nah. At some point they will have to add in the care home deaths. That would take it to nearly 20k right now. Looking at the patterns in other countries, even as new cases plummet, new deaths figures stay relatively high for a while due to those already infected/ill - some people don't die until well after a month from the date of infection.
We'll be doing well from here to keep it below 30k, tbh, wrt to an honest figure that includes non-hospital deaths.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Interesting developments in this chart.
Not just China and South Korea exiting the growth line, also Australia and Hong Kong.
from: Covid Trends
Not just China and South Korea exiting the growth line, also Australia and Hong Kong.
from: Covid Trends
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Not on there, but New Zealand would also be plummeting down. Their total eradication policy appears to be on track.
miss direct
misfungled
I don’t like wearing a mask. Glasses steam up, it feels hot, hard to breathe, no one can hear me when I’m asking for something in a shop.
I can see it being made compulsory in the uk too so buy some now if you can.
I can see it being made compulsory in the uk too so buy some now if you can.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
As a side point, while we clearly need a little caveat regarding different testing regimes, I like this way of representing things because it removes time from the variables. It's really visually obvious where countries have managed a meaningful change.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I agree, I think the chart shows the key issue, I say bravo to the guy that came up with it.
Panic buy! Panic buy!
In fairness as useless as our government is I can't see them making wearing a mask compulsory if you can't obtain one.
elbows
Well-Known Member
If the UK goes in that direction eventually then expect a big national DIY campaign, because we arent talking about medical grade masks for this particular mission.
elbows
Well-Known Member
More on the disgraceful situation with Singapore and its migrant worker dormitories outbreak:
Coronavirus: Singapore spike reveals scale of migrant worker infections
Mass testing has revealed the extent of the spread amongst Singapore's migrant worker community.
www.bbc.co.uk
miss direct
misfungled
Here it's been rather chaotic. You're supposed to be able to register and then have 5 free masks delivered a week. The system crashed and nobody I know got their masks. It's also now supposedly illegal to sell masks. I've got one crappy black material one that I wear repeatedly when I go to the shops.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
More on Ecuador and in particular Guayaquil.
6,000 extra deaths in two weeks in Ecuador province
Ecuador's official coronavirus death toll is 403, but new figures from just one province suggest many thousands have died in the country.
The government said 6,700 people had died in the Guayas province alone in the first two weeks of April, far more than the usual 1,000 deaths there in the same period.
Guayas is home to the nation's largest city Guayaquil - the worst affected part of the country.
Footage obtained by the BBC earlier this week showed residents of the city forced to store bodies of relatives in their homes for up to five days. They said authorities had been unable to keep up with rate of death, leaving corpses wrapped in sheets in family homes and even on the street.
City authorities last week began distributing thousands of cardboard coffins and set up a dedicated helpline for families that needed a body removed from their home.
6,000 extra deaths in two weeks in Ecuador province
Ecuador's official coronavirus death toll is 403, but new figures from just one province suggest many thousands have died in the country.
The government said 6,700 people had died in the Guayas province alone in the first two weeks of April, far more than the usual 1,000 deaths there in the same period.
Guayas is home to the nation's largest city Guayaquil - the worst affected part of the country.
Footage obtained by the BBC earlier this week showed residents of the city forced to store bodies of relatives in their homes for up to five days. They said authorities had been unable to keep up with rate of death, leaving corpses wrapped in sheets in family homes and even on the street.
City authorities last week began distributing thousands of cardboard coffins and set up a dedicated helpline for families that needed a body removed from their home.
elbows
Well-Known Member
More criticism of the IHME model:
www.statnews.com
Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say
A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.
www.statnews.com
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
You meant to then say "in the first wave" didn't you?
Hospital deaths will go well over 15,000 tomorrow. So over 20,000 in what? 6-10 more days. In the first wave.
