Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
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elbows
Well-Known Member
There may be a trend emerging that countries with huge Delta spikes featuring incredibly quick growth are also quite quick to fall, at least for the initial portion of the downwards curve post-peak.
Even though I have to base plenty of my thinking on models, I'm not exactly convinced that all the dynamics of outbreaks are captured properly with our traditional understanding of these matters. I dont find it easy to discuss this subject because modelling is broadly correct in some ways, and it is very unlikely that I am going to figure out any technical riddles myself. And some directions of thought get bogged down by anti-lockdown types that think they can spot a way to fit their version of reality with how waves turn out in practice, no matter how many times such waves repeat. It could even turn out that there are certain specific aspects of their stance which are compatible with this unknown reality, and I'd be prepared to concede what was necessary but still pick apart the more reckless and deadly aspects of their stance, But doing that when stumbling around in the dark not even knowing what the missing details in our understanding of waves are, is not something I would find easy to cope with. Plus there may not be any major errors or missing pieces, and its just the ability to model and survey human behaviour and mixing patterns that is too limited and crudely estimated, perhaps underplaying how rapid the dynamics of shifting behaviours during outbreaks can be.
Plus when I zoom in to specific towns or cities in the UK that are further along with their Delta outbreaks, the picture is often a big mess, sometimes with more than one peak, so I do need to be careful not to judge things based on overall national data alone, since such large areas have a smoothing and simplifying effect on curves, including painting a picture of very straightforward momentum and decline that may not be shown at each local level.
For example there was a time when some used Bolton to feel reassured, when it looked like Bolton had peaked. But the people that shouted about Bolton at the time wont have been drawing attention to it since, because it did this:
Even though I have to base plenty of my thinking on models, I'm not exactly convinced that all the dynamics of outbreaks are captured properly with our traditional understanding of these matters. I dont find it easy to discuss this subject because modelling is broadly correct in some ways, and it is very unlikely that I am going to figure out any technical riddles myself. And some directions of thought get bogged down by anti-lockdown types that think they can spot a way to fit their version of reality with how waves turn out in practice, no matter how many times such waves repeat. It could even turn out that there are certain specific aspects of their stance which are compatible with this unknown reality, and I'd be prepared to concede what was necessary but still pick apart the more reckless and deadly aspects of their stance, But doing that when stumbling around in the dark not even knowing what the missing details in our understanding of waves are, is not something I would find easy to cope with. Plus there may not be any major errors or missing pieces, and its just the ability to model and survey human behaviour and mixing patterns that is too limited and crudely estimated, perhaps underplaying how rapid the dynamics of shifting behaviours during outbreaks can be.
Plus when I zoom in to specific towns or cities in the UK that are further along with their Delta outbreaks, the picture is often a big mess, sometimes with more than one peak, so I do need to be careful not to judge things based on overall national data alone, since such large areas have a smoothing and simplifying effect on curves, including painting a picture of very straightforward momentum and decline that may not be shown at each local level.
For example there was a time when some used Bolton to feel reassured, when it looked like Bolton had peaked. But the people that shouted about Bolton at the time wont have been drawing attention to it since, because it did this:
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teuchter
je suis teuchter
Yes that could be the article I was remembering...or something similar around the same time.I found one of the old Italy articles from the period.
To put the timing in context, this was about 3 weeks after alarming signals started to emerge from Italy, and a few days after their lockdown rapidly expanded to the whole country. And it came on the notorious Friday 13th at the end of the big week where the UK's plan A was going down badly in press conferences. On a day where the establishment had one last go at selling that plan, including going on about herd immunity. A week where my alarm bells went off about wave surveillance and modelling because they told us in press conferences that we were 4 weeks behind Italy when we were actually 2 weeks behind Italy. Plan A died within hours of this article, or at the very least did not survive the weekend.
Coronavirus: Three reasons why the UK might not look like Italy
Boris Johnson's chief scientific adviser says the UK is four weeks behind Italy, What does that mean?www.bbc.co.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
Cheers. I'm only covering a small fraction of stuff though, and I've got little idea quite what I have missed.
I think I was expecting other people to go on more about the extent of the decline in Englands vaccination programme, for example.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
It was amazing how pervasive UK exceptional ism was at the start of the pandemic. Even pretty rational people I knew seemed to dismiss that we would ever have a problem with Covid on the same scale as Italy.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
It certainly shows he's a shitball. Never mind the rest of the population who have been taking reasonable precautions, how are vulnerable people who have to return to work, go on public transport, brush past unmasked people in the shops supposed to feel? A lot of those people are already scared and they've now got that cunt deriding them.
But on another note it doesn't suggest this particular member of government is rowing back from 'freedom day' rhetoric as it seemed a couple of them were in the face of rising numbers. Is it possible that 4/5 days of lower figures are acting as a mini dose of confirmation bias and we are back on course with the bullish wrecklessnes of say 3 weeks ago?
elbows
Well-Known Member
The masks and lockdown points in that article annoy me in some ways, because some of what is said only covers a couple of quite narrow angles.
In regards lockdowns, I dont think anyone here thinks that everything revolves around the formal rules. We know how much people had started to modify their behaviour in this country some time before the government finally had a formal lockdown. And the study linked to in the article is all about the economics and 'consumer traffic'. And I decided to take this opportunity to skim through that studies details.
For example it includes bits like this. Its American so it tends to use terms like SIP which I assume is Stay In Place.
Plus in addition to measuring overall activity, they looked at diversion of business that was due to formal restrictions.
I coud go on for ages about other aspects of lockdown that make real differences beyond peoples voluntary response to the pandemic. I wont do that right now, but for example I remember well the period when peoples sense of risk reached a suitable place, but lockdown was not yet in place. It ws very unpleasant to leave it to individuals to make decisions about whether they should pull their kids out of school, and there are various forms of the 'social solidarity' he mentions that can be significantly enhanced with the right rules at the right time, for reasons very much including the message that sends and how well crafted and communicated rules can restrain certain elements that are a threat to the sense of 'we're all in this together' can be weakened. Obviously when those with special status then turn out to not be following those rules, the opposite happens, but thats a subject for another day.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I assume its part of an agenda that will not be halted unless the hospital situation reaches a certain point. He is coming out with shit that is a better fit for the treasury than the health department. That paper I was just going on about in my previous point contains some obvious stuff that the tories are well aware of, that it is the mindset of people that needs to change in order for normal levels of economic activity to return. Johnson originally had a go at doing this for an imagined June 2020 march back towards normal before that plan was watered down, and they ended up relying on gimmicks like eat out to help out, but didnt have a plan that was sustainable beyond summer.
This time Im sure they have their eyes on a grand prize, and part of my focus on early peak possibilities involves what they will do with any success on that front to keep on pushing harder with this vulgar attempt to get peoples mindsets back to the old normal. I am expecting more attacks on those with a more cautious approach whenever the opportunity arises, and thats why I've spoken about the possibility that some may be walking into a deliberate trap at this stage of the current wave. Sort of like a giant mutant Daily Telegraph but with momentum and reach on its side, and maybe even some features of its stance that are more compatible with reality than they were at earlier stages of the pandemic.
Me going on about that all the time these days in no way means I have excluded the possibility that things will still blow up in their face again as happened with previous waves. Javid will be especially badly positioned if that happens. Hancock was not impressive but there were signs that by April 2020 he had at least figured out what a lot of the appropriate noises to make were. Javid is deliberately making all the wrong noises, and I think there is some method to that madness, but as with so many aspect of the Tories current game it is high stakes stuff.
I'm always going to want the outcome where the wave is as small and brief as possible, but if that happy eventuality comes to pass I'll have to prepare myself for quite how insufferable the tories will be if they get away with their big gamble. If they feel the need to poison the well and to paint the cautious as being extremists who need to get a grip and stop being afraid, its going to stink.
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little_legs
Поехали!
I certainly expect attacks on the long Covid sufferers. Give it a couple of months, the government and its trusted media is going to call them scoungers.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
Well, you're free to disagree with the piece. But Tim Harford's articles tend to be well researched and backed by data.
If you have seen scientific studies that disprove any of what he's saying then feel free to share.
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
"More or Less" is a bastion of sanity as the rest of the media goes to shit. And notably a show that's more than ready to point out its own errors.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Outrage is rightly growing over this fucking dumb tweet from Javid.
[Martin McKee, director of public health at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.]
ETA - that tweet quoted Javid's tweet, which he has since deleted, this is what he posted -
[Martin McKee, director of public health at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.]
ETA - that tweet quoted Javid's tweet, which he has since deleted, this is what he posted -
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Supine
Newt Member
Not for the first time my prediction was totally wrong. Only 31k cases yesterday. Could this be the good weather?
Is testing waning? Hospitalisations increase but the recorded case rate has been appearing to tail off or plateau this week. Surely that can only be explained by lower testing.
Certainly the most revealing
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Doesn't look like it, the 7-day average is hoovering around the 1 million a day mark, it did hit a peak of 1.3m back in March, before dropping to 0.8m in April, but has been floating around the 1m mark for the last 4 or 5 weeks.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
There's a fairly long lag between cases and hospitalisation isn't there. So hospitalisation this week is driven by cases a week or two back. Not that that in itself proves the fall in cases isn't lower testing but it could just be that.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
I'll stick my neck out a bit.
I suggest that the drop in cases is partly because the [little germ factories] school pupils & students are not being tested and are not in quite so close contact with other [little germ factories], so less transmission in educational settings.
Secondly. The weather has been hot and dry so reducing the survival rates of floating virus particles.
Thirdly, a lot of social interactions are happening outside, with plenty of ventilation.
I suggest that the drop in cases is partly because the [
Secondly. The weather has been hot and dry so reducing the survival rates of floating virus particles.
Thirdly, a lot of social interactions are happening outside, with plenty of ventilation.
It's confusing to be honest. On one hand we're a far cry (yet) from the predictions of a hundred thousand daily cases. But on the other 31,000 is by no means small nor is it acceptable. Yet we must 'learn to live with this'.
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
Like maomao says in the post above yours, English school term only finished on Friday, with many places having an inset day or two before that. They won't have made any impact on the figures yet. Colleges, sixth forms and private schools finished a couple of weeks ago and Scottish schools about a month ago. I think you could overstate schools' impact on the current drop in figures.
As you note, it'll most likely be a combination of things, including the good weather, that have caused figures to drop.
The rapidly rising figures have caused a wider recognition that, despite the impression created by the government and some newspapers, we do still need to be careful and some behaviors have changed to reflect that.
There's the 'pingdemic', with over a million people pinged by the NHS app in a couple of weeks, hundreds of thousands of school kids sent home as bubbles burst, plus hundreds of thousands who've tested positive and their families all supposed to be self isolating. I've no idea what compliance with self-isolation is like, but it must be doing something for the government to keep it in the face of huge pressure to drop it from business.
There's to football superspreading coming to an end and a list of other things that could be responsible.
The big question is whether new cases continue to fall, hold steady at an uncomfortably high level or if last Monday's big reopening sees cases take off again. As is so often the case with this pandemic all we can do is take care and watch the figures with our fingers crossed.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
I also think a symptomatic illness that lasts a week is hardly what I would call mild.
2hats
Dust.
This was confirmed a few days ago by Hadjibagheri, and is mentioned in the methodology 'small print'. That the daily dashboard case numbers of late don't reflect actual infections on the ground (variously by factors of 2/3/4, for a range of reasons) has been clear for some time.Well people who are re-infected are not included in dashboard figures.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Since I am not trying to demolish and disprove everything he says, there is no need for me to find further scientific studies. I already went into some detail using the paper about lockdown that he linked to, so I'm not sure why you are inviting me to repeat myself about that.
I dont disagree with the whole article anyway, I've been very specific about the aspects where I did not agree, where I felt the article was too quick to diminish other aspects in order to try to make its points stand out cleanly. The masks section would be another example, there are points in there that are fine, its just the framing is a bit stupid when he uses lines like "masks matter, but not for the reason you think". Bollocks, they matter for a number of reasons that we already think about. If he just wants to add another reason on top then thats fine, but the technique of doing that by first inviting us to forget those other reasons, diminishing their importance as a result, is not fine. This just means I dont like certain aspects of his style and technique, elements that are probably an inevitable feature of 'here are the ways you've been thinking about something wrong and missing the real point which I will now explain' type articles. In some areas it really doesnt matter, but when talking about lockdowns and masks I really think it is important not to diminish stuff just for the sake of making your own angle stand out more.
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