Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Dogsauce]

There‘s been a number of people at work isolating because family members (usually young) are positive, before that I only knew of a couple of cases, and I think at school we’d only ever had one bubble close until about a month ago, since then four classes out. The infection rate in Bristol is higher than it‘s ever been, by around 50%. I just didn’t have the anecdotes first time around. I’m quite glad school has finished and it’s now deserted when I’m working up there.

 

[editor]

Well, this looks a bit encouraging, no? I mean it's still appallingly high, but at least it's going the right way.

 

[_Russ_]

Would the fall in umbers have anything to do with Schools breaking up and the resultant fall in testing of children who were after all making up a large proportion of cases?

 

[teuchter]

Would the fall in umbers have anything to do with Schools breaking up and the resultant fall in testing of children who were after all making up a large proportion of cases?

This is all discussed in the last few pages.

 

[andysays]

Would the fall in umbers have anything to do with Schools breaking up and the resultant fall in testing of children who were after all making up a large proportion of cases?

Although schools in Scotland broke up a while ago, those in England (and Wales?) only broke up last week, it's too soon to see any effect from that, I would have thought.

 

[_Russ_]

Im not talking about a fall in actual cases, rather a fall in testing which would show a change in numbers straight away

 

[LDC]

It's been discussed plenty. Pagel had a Twitter thread on it a few days ago which covered the factors she thought might be behind a fall in positive tests. Testing issues was one of the factors.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Pissing on the memory of the dead.

 

[_Russ_]

It's been discussed plenty. Pagel had a Twitter thread on it a few days ago which covered the factors she thought might be behind a fall in positive tests. Testing issues was one of the factors.

Cheers I don't do the twitter. is there a consensus on how real the apparent case rate slowdown is? (Not a straightforward matter I know but I think there are some knowledgeable people here)

 

[cupid_stunt]

Im not talking about a fall in actual cases, rather a fall in testing which would show a change in numbers straight away

According to the dashboard, we have been testing around 1m a day across the UK, all month, although that only goes up to last Thur. 22/7, whereas daily reported cases shows a drop in England from a peak on the 17th July with almost 51k cases, dropping to 25.5k yesterday.



According to the 'cases by specimen date' chart, that peak actually occurred on the 15th, there's a time lag with that one, but it looks like it's heading in the same direction as the 'daily reported cases' chart.

 

[_Russ_]

According to the dashboard, we have been testing around 1m a day across the UK

No offense, but thats a bit vague, got a link to the data?

apologies I don't know where to find this stuff

 

[cupid_stunt]

No offense, but thats a bit vague, got a link to the data?

apologies I don't know where to find this stuff

No problem, it's the government's official covid data/dashboard site, direct link to the 'testing' page -

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

 

[Supine]

Cheers I don't do the twitter. is there a consensus on how real the apparent case rate slowdown is? (Not a straightforward matter I know but I think there are some knowledgeable people here)

Consensus is nobody knows for sure. Schools have just gone but they had large numbers isolated for before. Could be the nice weather. In Scotland the case drop has been followed by an admissions drop which suggests whatever the causes it is a real drop.

 

[elbows]

I probably need this weeks data before I can say more about the peak.

But here is a clue. This graph shows positive cases for England by specimen date.

 

[elbows]

And this is how the male positives for England look when broken down into some broad age groups of my choosing.

 

[killer b]

Although schools in Scotland broke up a while ago, those in England (and Wales?) only broke up last week, it's too soon to see any effect from that, I would have thought.

most of England broke up on the 16th

 

[cupid_stunt]

most of England broke up on the 16th

Really?

I thought most broke up last week, certainly both East Sussex & West Sussex schools broke up on Fri. 23/7, and likewise both Kent & Surrey schools broke up on Thur. 22/7.

 

[elbows]

There is quite a lot of variety between different parts of England in terms of end of term. Leicestershire finished a week earlier than most, plenty had end of term dates in the middle of last week but those days may have been used for teacher training (oops, old fashioned term, inset days or whatever they are called now). Some, as cupid_stunt points out, were a week later.

 

[scalyboy]

And this is how the male positives for England look when broken down into some broad age groups of my choosing.

View attachment 280613

Good stuff elbows - thanks as always for your sterling work.

It will be interesting to see if there's been any significant rise following this weekend just gone, the first weekend since 'freedom day'. The Tube was rammed yesterday afternoon, first time in 18 months I've had people sat next to me on both sides. Most but not all people masked up, two separate non-maskers sneezing and coughing

 

[elbows]

Good stuff elbows - thanks as always for your sterling work.

It will be interesting to see if there's been any significant rise following this weekend just gone, the first weekend since 'freedom day'. The Tube was rammed yesterday afternoon, first time in 18 months I've had people sat next to me on both sides. Most but not all people masked up, two separate non-maskers sneezing and coughing

No problem. Im waiting to see if the 15th was the proper peak or whether that was a Euros etc spike and things will keep growing again from the pre-spike level upwards.

Certainly in the past the virus has struggled to regain momentum after a peak and the only way was down. But those were different circumstances including lockdowns, and we saw via a combination off too short and weak a lockdown last November, and the arrival of the Alpha (Kent) variant that things can explode again.

Plus a huge chunk of the reason I started telling people here not to be surprised if the peak came earlier than they expected, was what happened with Scotland. And its always sensible to factor in school holidays as the large factor they surely are, because they arent just about transmission in school, they affect a lot of adult behaviour and mixing patterns. A rather large number of people already having been infected in this wave, and a rather large number of people being told to self-isolate should also make quite a difference, as will have the very different mood music of recent weeks. And the better weather.

 

[elbows]

There are also questions in my mind about how long the very steepest parts of upward growth curves can actually be maintained once they've reached that almost vertical incline.

 

[editor]

Would the fall in umbers have anything to do with Schools breaking up and the resultant fall in testing of children who were after all making up a large proportion of cases?

From the same spurce:

 

[Chz]

Really?

I thought most broke up last week, certainly both East Sussex & West Sussex schools broke up on Fri. 23/7, and likewise both Kent & Surrey schools broke up on Thur. 22/7.

LBSutton it was the 21st (well, 22nd but it's an inset day). Or would have been for us, but the Boy was already self-isolating.

 

[andysays]

most of England broke up on the 16th

OK, reading the responses, it appears there's some variation.

I assumed everywhere in England was roughly the same, but apologies for the misleading post.

Maybe there is a school holiday effect beginning, though I still think it's probably too early.

 

[elbows]

Out of curiosity Im going to check exactly when I started going on about the potential for a peak that was earlier than many expected, just in case it reminds me of some useful factor.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Pissing on the memory of the dead.

View attachment 280596

Fucking hell. Was Clive Sinclair unavailable?

 

[Wilf]

I notice the govt are floating the idea of university students needing the jab before coming onto campus/halls, having said that wasn't the case earlier in the day. I won't link to it as I think it was some right wing paper I saw it in. So, the politics of our government are currently a mix of bullish, anti-'cowering' libertarianism along with hints of enforced vaccine passports to offset the damage done in the rest of their approach. World beating.

 

[elbows]

I notice the govt are floating the idea of university students needing the jab before coming onto campus/halls, having said that wasn't the case earlier in the day. I won't link to it as I think it was some right wing paper I saw it in. So, the politics of our government are currently a mix of bullish, anti-'cowering' libertarianism along with hints of enforced vaccine passports to offset the damage done in the rest of their approach. World beating.

Similar reason as stuff like getting Gareth Southgate to promote vaccination - they arent too happy with the uptake in younger age groups.

 

[elbows]

Out of curiosity Im going to check exactly when I started going on about the potential for a peak that was earlier than many expected, just in case it reminds me of some useful factor.

Looks like it was around July 7th-8th that I started going on about these early peak possibilities. Which means my thoughts were largely driven by the picture that was emerging in data from Scotland by that date. No crystal ball or other interesting sources.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I notice the govt are floating the idea of university students needing the jab before coming onto campus/halls, having said that wasn't the case earlier in the day. I won't link to it as I think it was some right wing paper I saw it in. So, the politics of our government are currently a mix of bullish, anti-'cowering' libertarianism along with hints of enforced vaccine passports to offset the damage done in the rest of their approach. World beating.

Well summed up.

Apparently Johnson is fuming, fuming I tell you, at how many young people haven't had a jab, not that they couldn't have spotted that one coming down the line, when so many polls showed a higher level of hesitantly, as you work down the age groups.

Yet they didn't get any real messaging out to help solve that, when it was needed months ago, instead they waited until it unfolded, and are now throwing their toys out of their pram, and making all sorts of threats over covid passports.