Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well people who are re-infected are not included in dashboard figures.
See tweet thread.
Those of us who dont have special access to senior government officials could have known this all along by simply reading the description on the dashboard that includes the line "People tested positive more than once are only counted once, on the date of their first positive test. "
There is some study of reinfections with data published once a week. I tend to assume such studies only capture a fraction of the actual reinfections. I'll probably go and find the latest version of that shortly. The numbers they pick up arent huge comapred to overall case numbers. edit - ah I see another quoted tweet just before this post has that covered.
There are a number of stats where I'd rather the definitions used were not so narrow. But I suppose Im somewhat relaxed about these omissions from the positive case figures because I always take those figures with a pinch of salt anyway, and rely more on hospital data.
Plus Peston mentions that this also excludes people who were positive in spring 2020. But given how limited the testing regime was back then, most people who caught it that time around didnt get a positive test result in the first place, so wont be excluded if they test positive this time.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its probably a lot more common these days than it once was, and as I said I dont expect their surveillance for reinfections to capture the whole picture. All the same, I struggle to get overexcited about Pestons revelation for reasons already explained.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Regarding the apparent peak in case data, I already said plenty about that and dont really have anything new to add today.
But certainly this coming weeks hospital admissions data should start to give us clues about the underlying reality. And this coming weeks daily positive cases by specimen dates should start to reveal whether what was seen was a proper peak, or whether those highs just represented a temporary spike. And whether the figures will now continue to grow from the level established before that spike happened, reestablishing previous momentum, or whether the only way is down.
But certainly this coming weeks hospital admissions data should start to give us clues about the underlying reality. And this coming weeks daily positive cases by specimen dates should start to reveal whether what was seen was a proper peak, or whether those highs just represented a temporary spike. And whether the figures will now continue to grow from the level established before that spike happened, reestablishing previous momentum, or whether the only way is down.
2hats
Dust.
The underlying problem is cases != infections.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I remember a time when some small official noises were made about adding wastewater data to the dashboard. I think I've given up hope of that happening.
bimble
floofy
People who understand antibodies and how the vaccines work, please can you confirm that this policy of the Swiss health service is logical and not about supply issues?
I’m going to visit my parents there tomorrow. Flight is full, my old Dad having had covid has only been given the one shot of Pfizer and I can’t help it i’m anxious about it.
Does this make sense, medically, their policy?
I’m going to visit my parents there tomorrow. Flight is full, my old Dad having had covid has only been given the one shot of Pfizer and I can’t help it i’m anxious about it.
Does this make sense, medically, their policy?
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Supply issues are always a consideration that contributes to policy but there is other logic to that policy too, there is actual science about immunity after infection + 1 dose. However its still a compromise and since immunity and vaccine effectiveness varies per person, I wouldnt want to stretch claims too far.
www.nature.com
Is one vaccine dose enough if you’ve had COVID? What the science says
Research shows that a previous coronavirus infection plus one dose of vaccine provides powerful protection — but concerns linger.
www.nature.com
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
bimble
floofy
2hats
Dust.
This isn't without fairly strong scientific basis, both from current and historical immunological research. Indeed, several countries have adopted this approach. Hybrid immunity arising from (heterologous) infection (prime) then single dose (booster) has been covered in the vaccination thread. In particular see post #1359.
Probably those who experienced worse covid symptoms (to a point) may be more likely to gain from this approach (B, T cells already sufficiently primed for the booster) than those who had very mild/asymptomatic infections. To be sure, however, one would ideally have a full serological screening post booster to be reasonably certain (insert usual health warning about as yet not fully established correlates of protection).
One data point: I'm a mRNA single dose convalescent - very strong symptoms but not sufficient to require medical assistance - have had our lab screen me post vaccination and antibodies to spike epitopes easily reach the top of the range they are happy to report (might have a chance to examine T cells in due course). Ideally everyone would be able to do this and tailor their regimen (though this is clearly not that practical, at least right now, so the general advice is: both doses). The above studies tend not to show much if any benefit, for many convalescents, of a second dose at the standard posology. A longer interval might improve breadth and duration of immunity, however it has to be balanced against risk of infection, and individual consequences thereof, in the intervening period.
I am not a medical doctor/This does not constitute medical advice/Consult your GP/etc.
Probably those who experienced worse covid symptoms (to a point) may be more likely to gain from this approach (B, T cells already sufficiently primed for the booster) than those who had very mild/asymptomatic infections. To be sure, however, one would ideally have a full serological screening post booster to be reasonably certain (insert usual health warning about as yet not fully established correlates of protection).
One data point: I'm a mRNA single dose convalescent - very strong symptoms but not sufficient to require medical assistance - have had our lab screen me post vaccination and antibodies to spike epitopes easily reach the top of the range they are happy to report (might have a chance to examine T cells in due course). Ideally everyone would be able to do this and tailor their regimen (though this is clearly not that practical, at least right now, so the general advice is: both doses). The above studies tend not to show much if any benefit, for many convalescents, of a second dose at the standard posology. A longer interval might improve breadth and duration of immunity, however it has to be balanced against risk of infection, and individual consequences thereof, in the intervening period.
I am not a medical doctor/This does not constitute medical advice/Consult your GP/etc.
prunus
Tick tock.
It does, in that studies have shown that the immune response in convalescents to a single dose of Pfizer is generally greater than that of naive people to the second dose - ie your dad should be as well protected as someone who hasn’t had it is after two shots (better in fact).
bimble
floofy
oh yes, just at the really quite bad pun.
Supine
Newt Member
It’ll depend if the booster is the original wild type varient or more tailored to delta or another mutation / variant of concern. I know this is being actively studied at the moment.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Did you hear where in India they're making worse jokes than mine about the vaccine though?
Punjabi.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Copied (enbolded) from the dashboard homepage ...
25 July 2021
Because of technical difficulties in processing England deaths data, today's update is delayed.
That's what they said yesterday - it appeared only just in time ...
Last updated on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 11:59pm
I'm not holding my breath !
25 July 2021
Because of technical difficulties in processing England deaths data, today's update is delayed.
That's what they said yesterday - it appeared only just in time ...
Last updated on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 11:59pm
I'm not holding my breath !
Saul Goodman
It's all good, man
I think 40% had been vaxxed at last count.
2hats
Dust.
So there are a few factors, and I suspect it is not going to become clear (in the UK) for at least a month plus yet. It might not even happen at all; BioNTech's CEO so far sees no need for an additional dose for most vaccinees. Pfizer has been advocating for third dose rollout. Some countries might take the same path as Israel which has already started offering a third dose to immunocompromised individuals, after seeing apparent hints of waning immunity in some cohorts.
Some considerations...
Sufficient stock for some (third dose) boosters in the UK should be available in the autumn (a large delivery of Pfizer has been reported to be due around then). Precisely how it is best to deploy those isn't completely clear right now. However, that might be better clarified in September when a number of investigations are scheduled to deliver results. In particular mix and match studies. Also, we should (with any luck) see a couple more vaccines (based on early type spike) being granted regulatory approval around that time. So, it might prove more efficacious (and be possible) to switch to different platforms for particular cohorts of third dose recipients, though this will of course be constrained to various degrees by supplies and timing of approvals (also factoring in decisions to offer vaccination widely to 12-17 years, or not).
Irrespective, more vulnerable cohorts (elderly, immunosuppressed, exhibiting poor seroconversion) might benefit from a third dose of current mRNA vaccines anyway (as per Israel), both raising circulating antibody levels and, subsequently, more importantly, hopefully promoting a broader and more enduring B and T cell response (the post second dose several months interval may assist here).
Additionally, as has been mentioned, right now there are no approved vaccines 'retuned' to more recent variants/VOCs. There are at least four currently in trials (see numerous recent posts in the vaccines thread), from manufacturers of previously approved vaccines (early type spike, same platforms), and a few others (new manufacturers/platforms), all of which target (typically) beta/B.1.351 (E484K flavoured) spike. One would guess that those might not be available until at least towards the end of the year, or sometime next year, if they progress to approval and distribution at all.
Beyond that, it might need a switch of delivery method to elicit more enduring and sterilising immunity if we need to better quench transmission and all infection. For example, intranasal vaccines that promote a more focused degree of IgA/IgG in the mucosal tissues of the upper respiratory tract (see vaccines thread, post #1418). There are candidates that have been tested in animal models, and some in small trials, but one could imagine they might not reach approval and distribution until later in 2022/2023, assuming they are suitably effective.
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2hats
Dust.
Yes, same for me over the last few weeks. Including a double-vaxed friend who's a teaching assistant, has been in school throughout and had managed to avoid it until a couple of days before the end of term. She's not seriously ill but is feeling pretty rotten.
Eta All mine are adults who've had one or both vaccines.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Apologies if already posted, but do we have detailed breakdowns of who both the 40 and 60% are?Indeed - a visualisation:
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Some of the papers are making a big thing about the daily reported cases dropping, which is good news, but it seems somewhat early to be celebrating, as we haven't seen the impact of 'freedom day' yet.
The 7-day averages reported yesterday:
New cases down -15%
Hospital admission up +26.7%, but that rate of increase is now slowing.
Deaths up +59%
The 7-day averages reported yesterday:
New cases down -15%
Hospital admission up +26.7%, but that rate of increase is now slowing.
Deaths up +59%
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