Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
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scalyboy
They’re taking the piss now
.
From that Independent link in the tweet:
'One scientific adviser said the plans to reintroduce restrictions was typical of No 10’s handling of the pandemic. "It perfectly fits the previous pattern in previous waves – first ignore the problems and deny action is needed, then realise there is a problem and tell people it is up to them to act, then, belatedly, impose greater restrictions than would have been needed if one acted early,” the adviser said.'
From that Independent link in the tweet:
'One scientific adviser said the plans to reintroduce restrictions was typical of No 10’s handling of the pandemic. "It perfectly fits the previous pattern in previous waves – first ignore the problems and deny action is needed, then realise there is a problem and tell people it is up to them to act, then, belatedly, impose greater restrictions than would have been needed if one acted early,” the adviser said.'
elbows
Well-Known Member
From the latest PHE variant technical report (same source as the Delta vaccinated hospital figures mentioned in a news article earlier):
Reinfection risk:
Deaths - I've put totals and then the numbers for people aged under 50 first in brackets, followed by the number for people aged 50 and over.
Total Delta deaths that were part of this analysis: 460 (45, 415)
Missing data: 6 (1, 5)
Within 21 days of dose one: 5 (3, 2)
21 days or more after dose one: 60 (3, 57)
Received 2 doses: 224 (4, 220)
Unvaccinated: 165 (34, 131)
https://assets.publishing.service.g...t_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf with those death figures coming from a table on pages 18 & 19.
Reinfection risk:
Deaths - I've put totals and then the numbers for people aged under 50 first in brackets, followed by the number for people aged 50 and over.
Total Delta deaths that were part of this analysis: 460 (45, 415)
Missing data: 6 (1, 5)
Within 21 days of dose one: 5 (3, 2)
21 days or more after dose one: 60 (3, 57)
Received 2 doses: 224 (4, 220)
Unvaccinated: 165 (34, 131)
https://assets.publishing.service.g...t_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf with those death figures coming from a table on pages 18 & 19.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
My words that you quoted were rather careless I admit.
What I was grasping at is that fear of Covid prevented many from going to A&E or GPs because they were too scared (or in the case of GPs, unable to get an appointment). The long term consequences of this healthcare gap are yet to be seen. The media is partly to blame because initially Covid was made out to be a death sentence, when it's actually very low risk to most.
There's also the mental health angle which is covered in today's Guardian.
Youth violence likely to explode over summer, UK experts fear
Long-term issues overlain with stress and isolation of Covid have set scene for ‘eruption’, charities say
I do think on balance lockdowns were absolutely the right thing to do, and the government locked down way too late both times. However that's not too say that there weren't aspects which could have been handled much better with hindsight.
I think the treatment of students, young people and small business owners/ self employed has been particularly bad.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
I didn't share that rather ludicrous article, but now you have.
That said though, I find it quite amusing that there's nothing to stop anyone driving to one of the virus hotspots in UK major cities and partying in nightclubs, but anyone traveling back from practically any European country has to spend a fortune on umpteen PCR tests and isolate when they arrive!
Of course double standards are nothing new for this government.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
Oof no, please don't paint me with the lockdown sceptic brush.
I'm fully agreeing with you that it's too early to sure and I wish the government had been more cautious. Thankfully people are not stupid and have been taking matters into their own hands by staying cautious
elbows
Well-Known Member
Thanks for saying that and taking more time to explain your stance.
One thing the media tried hard not to go on about too much was the risk of catching it in hospital, especially throughout the first wave this subject was quite the no-no. People still figured out that risk for themselves anyway. Also, the government messaging made people not want to place a burden on the NHS, so some didnt get treatment as a result of that.
I have had a special focus on hospital acquired Covid throughout this pandemic. And this inevitably ends up being one of the areas where I end up falling out with people who make reassuring noises about this virus being 'very low risk to most'.
Dont evoke concepts like 'most people' when talking about something specific such as risk to those who require hospital for other reasons.
Because these days we have statistics like the following that I will dig up and throw in your face:
Up to 8,700 patients died after catching Covid in English hospitals
Exclusive: official NHS data reveals 32,307 people contracted the virus while in hospital since March 2020
elbows
Well-Known Member
As for infections acquired in hospital in this current wave, during the long periods without proper press coverage or official reporting with analysis being published, there is one basic measure I can use. I can subtract the figures from one NHS England spreadsheet table from those in another table, to get some sense of how many admissions/diagnoses per day involved people who had been in hospital for more than 7 days before testing positive. This is a similar but simplified version of the sort of analysis they do when trying to monitor this stuff more thoroughly, but its the best I can manage without special access to non-public data.
So far those figures show that things have not exploded on that front in the ways they did in previous waves. I expect vaccines have helped. Relative success on this front still means over 400 people contracting it in English hospitals in July so far. But in other waves these sorts of figures sometimes ramped up to more than that many people catching it in a single day, so the current situation looks very modest on a graph. Given the raw potential of Delta I was afraid I would end up posting such graphs quite a lot, but so far the numbers mean I have not felt a pressing need to do so. I just hope that continues. Things have still grown from June onwards compared to how low the numbers got in April and May, but look minuscule compared to previous waves.
So far those figures show that things have not exploded on that front in the ways they did in previous waves. I expect vaccines have helped. Relative success on this front still means over 400 people contracting it in English hospitals in July so far. But in other waves these sorts of figures sometimes ramped up to more than that many people catching it in a single day, so the current situation looks very modest on a graph. Given the raw potential of Delta I was afraid I would end up posting such graphs quite a lot, but so far the numbers mean I have not felt a pressing need to do so. I just hope that continues. Things have still grown from June onwards compared to how low the numbers got in April and May, but look minuscule compared to previous waves.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I really wonder to what extent the government thought through all the key implications of letting the virus run rampant in recent months.
Its probably about a month since I started drawing attention to the role that disruption, self-isolation etc would play in this wave. The way they are failing to get a grip on the need to keep sufficient key workers working makes me wonder if they even considered the basic fundamentals of this waves impact on that front.
The latest shit about that for example does not imply much thinking ahead of time:
In previous waves they remembered that they needed to consider workforce issues when closing schools, and did the stuff where children of key workers could still attend school. If thinking about that topic properly, it would probably have been a good idea for them to remember that the workforces are not in the same state during summer when schools are closed, there is less wiggle room, and combining that with allowing a ridiculous number of cases is asking for trouble of the variety that can get serious quickly. Especially if you've placed a burden on services by encouraging the masses to start doing a whole bunch of things that they were avoiding doing during lockdowns etc.
And then there are the other implications of letting a huge amount of younger people get infected. I dont think I've gone on about the following angle before now, although it had crossed my mind since I am due my second jab in a few weeks:
inews.co.uk
Its probably about a month since I started drawing attention to the role that disruption, self-isolation etc would play in this wave. The way they are failing to get a grip on the need to keep sufficient key workers working makes me wonder if they even considered the basic fundamentals of this waves impact on that front.
The latest shit about that for example does not imply much thinking ahead of time:
Covid: Food exemption scheme delayed until Monday
Iceland warns the move will not solve the issue of staff shortages in supermarkets themselves.
www.bbc.co.uk
In previous waves they remembered that they needed to consider workforce issues when closing schools, and did the stuff where children of key workers could still attend school. If thinking about that topic properly, it would probably have been a good idea for them to remember that the workforces are not in the same state during summer when schools are closed, there is less wiggle room, and combining that with allowing a ridiculous number of cases is asking for trouble of the variety that can get serious quickly. Especially if you've placed a burden on services by encouraging the masses to start doing a whole bunch of things that they were avoiding doing during lockdowns etc.
And then there are the other implications of letting a huge amount of younger people get infected. I dont think I've gone on about the following angle before now, although it had crossed my mind since I am due my second jab in a few weeks:
Fears rollout of second vaccine doses is being delayed by high covid cases and isolation rules
Young people have been missing their vaccine appointments and in some cases are being forced to wait an extra four weeks to get jabbed
inews.co.uk
Smangus
comatose at a desk
My words that you quoted were rather careless I admit.
What I was grasping at is that fear of Covid prevented many from going to A&E or GPs because they were too scared (or in the case of GPs, unable to get an appointment). The long term consequences of this healthcare gap are yet to be seen. The media is partly to blame because initially Covid was made out to be a death sentence, when it's actually very low risk to most.
There's also the mental health angle which is covered in today's Guardian.
Youth violence likely to explode over summer, UK experts fear
Long-term issues overlain with stress and isolation of Covid have set scene for ‘eruption’, charities saywww.theguardian.com
I do think on balance lockdowns were absolutely the right thing to do, and the government locked down way too late both times. However that's not too say that there weren't aspects which could have been handled much better with hindsight.
I think the treatment of students, young people and small business owners/ self employed has been particularly bad.
My step father is ill with terminal cancer, he has not been able to drink much in the last few days which is very concerning due to the hot weather.
This morning we were advised by a clinician not to take him to hospital as they are worried he would get Covid and die, not because we don't want him to go. This is Woolwich in se London and sounds like this is what people are being advised not to do.
There are probably manybmore cases like this around the country.
Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
Peterborough hospital just closed their doors to any visitors. Edit: Hinchingbrooke too:
Covid visiting restrictions increased at Peterborough, Stamford and Hinchingbrooke hospitals
Visiting restrictions at Peterborough City, Hinchingbrooke and Stamford and Rutland hospitals will be increased from Monday as a precautionary measure to manage the spread of Covid-19
www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
Thank you for the reasonable and well thought out response.Thanks for saying that and taking more time to explain your stance.
One thing the media tried hard not to go on about too much was the risk of catching it in hospital, especially throughout the first wave this subject was quite the no-no. People still figured out that risk for themselves anyway. Also, the government messaging made people not want to place a burden on the NHS, so some didnt get treatment as a result of that.
I have had a special focus on hospital acquired Covid throughout this pandemic. And this inevitably ends up being one of the areas where I end up falling out with people who make reassuring noises about this virus being 'very low risk to most'.
Dont evoke concepts like 'most people' when talking about something specific such as risk to those who require hospital for other reasons.
Because these days we have statistics like the following that I will dig up and throw in your face:
Up to 8,700 patients died after catching Covid in English hospitals
Exclusive: official NHS data reveals 32,307 people contracted the virus while in hospital since March 2020
Just to play devil's advocate, we don't know if Covid was the primary cause of those 8700 deaths or not (although it certainly would have been a factor).
What is extremely important is that if anyone has a mild heart attack, stroke or is displaying any warning signs of early stage cancer, that they don't delay getting help out of fear of catching Covid.
For myself personally I needed to take one of my children into A&E during Covid and it felt very safe (and almost eerily quiet). Covid patients were treated in a different part of the hospital which helped to minimise risk.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
Best wishes. Hope he's as comfortable as possible at home. Shame that the hospital is turning people away because they don't feel they can control the spread of the virus.
Edit: or because they're swamped with covid cases and don't have enough beds, which is going to become more and more of a problem
Last edited:
maomao
普費斯
When my son was taken from our local to Great Ormond Street at the height of the second wave we were taken through the Covid Wing of the hospital and to the ambulance bay where covid patients were being treated in ambulances. Was rather frightening.
I'm in hospital with him right now (suspected chickenpox which is rather dangerous for someone with his condition) and nurses are still wearing masks but the other staff seem to have given up. Much easier to get in too, no temp gun and quiz at the door anymore.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
The temperature check thing has been discredited though, I think
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Best wishes. Hope he's as comfortable as possible at home. Shame that the hospital is turning people away because they don't feel they can control the spread of the virus.
I'm slightly baffled by that tbh, if someone needs to be in hospital, turning them away is negligent and not something I've experienced or seen. I expect there might be more complexities than what's been said.
maomao
普費斯
Well most times I've had to take him in in the last six months he has had a fever. So I tell them not to bother as we wouldn't be there if his temperature was normal. They're used to us now though.
The temp gun they use at my daughter's after school club is rubbish. I once had a member of staff hand my daughter to me and announce her temperature was 32 degrees. I told her she'd be dead if that was true. They worked well in China because if you had a fever you wouldn't dare go out as you'd encounter a street stop with temp guns every couple of hundred yards but as a diagnostic tool they're rubbish.
Smangus
comatose at a desk
Probably , there always are. But that is what we were told by the doctor. They asked about numbness in the legs which would indicate pressure on the spine from the tumour. But that is not an issue yet. I think they would have taken him if it was the case.
But specifically told we shouldn't take him there due to covid risk.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Assuming then they were happy he could be cared for at home without needing to go to hospital? E2A: Ah, yeah so they didn't need to admit from what you said and they would if he got worse.
There's a subtle difference between someone saying he 'could go to hospital but there's a risk of covid if he does', or he 'should go to hospital but there's a risk of covid if he does'.
Hope he gets better and the treatment he needs wherever he is though.
There's a subtle difference between someone saying he 'could go to hospital but there's a risk of covid if he does', or he 'should go to hospital but there's a risk of covid if he does'.
Hope he gets better and the treatment he needs wherever he is though.
elbows
Well-Known Member
By going there you are just confirming to me that my suspicions about where you stand in this pandemic were well founded.
Lets leave it at that, I dont wish to go into this further as I know where it leads, its not pretty and my resulting rants will be a repetition that nobody needs to see again now.
wtfftw
melting like a toastie
This?
Coronavirus: how do Italy and the UK compare? | Coronavirus | The Guardian
With Britain approximately two weeks behind Italy in Covid-19 deaths, questions about the nations’ similarities remain
elbows
Well-Known Member
Meanwhile the steady stream of hospital news from Shaun Lintern continues. He has been good and persistent in this pandemic.
www.independent.co.uk
Hospitals experiencing ‘perfect storm’ as Covid infections and holiday season collide
Operations cancelled and staff warned to prepare for difficult weeks ahead
www.independent.co.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
I found one of the old Italy articles from the period.
To put the timing in context, this was about 3 weeks after alarming signals started to emerge from Italy, and a few days after their lockdown rapidly expanded to the whole country. And it came on the notorious Friday 13th at the end of the big week where the UK's plan A was going down badly in press conferences. On a day where the establishment had one last go at selling that plan, including going on about herd immunity. A week where my alarm bells went off about wave surveillance and modelling because they told us in press conferences that we were 4 weeks behind Italy when we were actually 2 weeks behind Italy. Plan A died within hours of this article, or at the very least did not survive the weekend.
To put the timing in context, this was about 3 weeks after alarming signals started to emerge from Italy, and a few days after their lockdown rapidly expanded to the whole country. And it came on the notorious Friday 13th at the end of the big week where the UK's plan A was going down badly in press conferences. On a day where the establishment had one last go at selling that plan, including going on about herd immunity. A week where my alarm bells went off about wave surveillance and modelling because they told us in press conferences that we were 4 weeks behind Italy when we were actually 2 weeks behind Italy. Plan A died within hours of this article, or at the very least did not survive the weekend.
Coronavirus: Three reasons why the UK might not look like Italy
Boris Johnson's chief scientific adviser says the UK is four weeks behind Italy, What does that mean?
www.bbc.co.uk
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