Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[existentialist]

I said this before but the BBC really should make a proper old school documentary about vaccine development. Loads of talking heads on how vaccines have pretty much kept modern urban civilisation viable, regards more leathful diseases. Not being dramatic.
How safety is core, talk to people who've taken part in trials.
How vaccines developed, genome sequencing, using cloud computing, first RNA vaccine, all that stuff.

It's right in their remit.

There's some bloody good stuff on Jim al-Khalili's Life Scientific podcast. That kept me company along most of the M4 last night...

 

[marshall]

must admit, I saw Blair was recommending this route, so I just took it for granted that it would be stupid

To be honest, in all seriousness, I'd rather Blair was in charge at the moment; Johnson is really scaring me atm.

 

[2hats]

Anyone knowledgeable got any views about this? Seems very worrying - doesn't higher viral load suggest the new variant is likely to be more dangerous?

No. At this time it's about transmissibility. The work highlights higher viral loads seen in infections with the new variant outside London (ie around Kent, where this variant is suspected to have originated). This could be due to (for example) a faster variant growth rate compared to other lineages or due to concentration in particular age cohorts. Work is on going. The preprint referred to is to be found here.

A picture of consequent disease severity and outcomes, if there is such, won't emerge for a few more weeks.

Note: classical evolutionary pressure tends to drive towards increased transmissibility with a commensurate reduction in lethality.

 

[elbows]

We need some kind of imaginative approach to this.

I havent figured out the reason why we need an imaginative approach to this. Or to put it another way, I dont know what problem it is trying to solve.

Vaccination programmes are not an area I have special knowledge about so I dont have much to add. The main threats to the vaccination programme that I would worry about at the moment are supplies of the vaccine, and issues with the logistics of giving it to people. And in that second category, I would very much place the risk to the vaccination programme if hospitals are overwhelmed with covid cases. At the very least such a scenario would force some staff who have been allocated to the vaccination programme to return to other duties instead. In this sense my focus remains on managing this winter wave of cases, do badly with the other things and the vaccination programme will suffer. And even if it doesnt suffer, I dont think the pace of the rollout is going to improve the winter picture much, so frankly it wouldnt be my number 1 priority right now.

 

[Red Cat]

From what I have seen, poor CAMHS was already creaking at the seams a long time ago. I fear that there will be a mental health crisis amongst young people that CAMHS will simply be incapable of scratching the surface of. And in no way do I mean that to imply anything about the competence of the professionals involved - they've been swimming upstream for far too long. It's unforgiveable.

Yes. I was hesitant to say this at the beginning when there was some evidence of people coping well, families realising that they had their own resources, a sense of collectivity, and an absence of certain pressures, and I fear that the constant highlighting of the youth mental health crisis even pre-covid helps create one by medicalising the difficulties of growing up, being human, and highlights the need for professional help at the expense of something more social. However, there has been a steep rise in referrals lately, and duty has been very busy, not surprising when there's so little space given to help young people think about what's going on, how it is for them, never mind the more obvious pressures and loss of employment, dv, bereavement etc.

 

[teuchter]

If that's correct then what's the second dose for? Share price?

While a level of cynicism is always healthy, the mindset that produces this kind of comment I just find really depressing.

 

[2hats]

I'll just leave this here...

 

[weltweit]

Anyone see that Nicola Sturgeon was caught without her facemask indoors chatting to people at a wake. She was challenged about it and issued an apology.

 

[magneze]

While a level of cynicism is always healthy, the mindset that produces this kind of comment I just find really depressing.

What mindset?

 

[Mation]

The professor on the news was explaining that if you take out the first ten days where nobody is protected it changes right up to 91%.

I don't understand what this means. (Literally; not having a go.)

Anyone got a link that expands on it?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Handcock is holding a press conference at 3 pm.

Here we go.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

The whole of England Tier 4 midnight 27th

 

[elbows]

I'll just leave this here...

I may as well repeat a stupid quote from Heneghan that appeared in August in response to winter planning scenarios.

Prof Carl Heneghan, from Oxford University, said some of the assumptions made in the model were "implausible" and that the report assumes that "we've learnt nothing from the first wave of this disease".

 

[frogwoman]

Why does anyone still take him and Gupta seriously? Listening to him is a huge part of why the government has fucked this up so badly

 

[elbows]

Why does anyone still take him and Gupta seriously? Listening to him is a huge part of why the government has fucked this up so badly

I dont think thats why they fucked up so badly at all, he has never been seriously listened to in that respect.

He does provide some sort of expert authority that the anti-lockdown wankers can point to, but they've never gotten their way in this pandemic. It was a slightly different part of the establishment and the crap orthodox approach that made the government response worse than it needed to be. That and some early failues by modellers to understand the nature and lag in the data they were using in Feb and early March. And of course the priorities and decisions of Johnson & Co, which didnt need any influence from Heneghan in order to be shit.

 

[Steel Icarus]

There should have been a concerted coordinated campaign to inform and educate the nation about viruses, illness, health, pandemics and vaccines from day one, via documentaries, radio call in shows, posters and articles in newspapers and magazines. We should all be saturated to the point of boredom with new information delivered on every conceivable platform. Not propganda, just facts.

Agree very much. A sustained campaign to explain not just what to do for the best bit why it works was needed - so many people still don't get it

 

[frogwoman]

Didn't him and Gupta have meetings in downing Street tho?

 

[elbows]

Didn't him and Gupta have meetings in downing Street tho?

So that Johnson could tell the idiot backbenchers that he was listening to their side and considering all the facts. We still ended up with a national lockdown after that, and Johnson didnt need Heneghan & co in order to delay and fudge such decisions, he is more than capable of doing that on his own.

Insert joke here about how the 1922 committee is named as such because all the members of the previous committee were wiped out by the 1918 pandemic

 

[teuchter]

What mindset?

I dunno, somehow just the fact that the first possibility that is considered as a reason for something being so, is that it must be malevolent corporate (or other) interests, rather than humans making a decision to do stuff for good reasons, reasons that lots of people have spent immense amounts of time studying and checking and working on. It's kind of always suspecting the worst of people.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Must be serious if they're letting that awkward freak Handcock speak to the nation

 

[The39thStep]

Agree very much. A sustained campaign to explain not just what to do for the best bit why it works was needed - so many people still don't get it

 

[Steel Icarus]

Must be serious if they're letting that awkward freak Handcock speak to the nation

And Dr Jenny Harries, I'd thankfully forgotten all about her

 

[nagapie]

Must be serious if they're letting that awkward freak Handcock speak to the nation

The others can't be arsed.

 

[frogwoman]

Not a bloody reprisal of her greatest hits

 

[Espresso]

The rest of them will have gone home for Christmas.

 

[elbows]

I already made a 'next scroll please' joke when mentioning that video in the past, but I may as well repeat it!



Despte the lack of audio I think they did a better job of covering the importance of ventilation than the current government have managed.

 

[2hats]

 

[magneze]

I dunno, somehow just the fact that the first possibility that is considered as a reason for something being so, is that it must be malevolent corporate (or other) interests, rather than humans making a decision to do stuff for good reasons, reasons that lots of people have spent immense amounts of time studying and checking and working on. It's kind of always suspecting the worst of people.

The figures speak for themselves. Having found that in fact 2 doses was not required for 90% efficacy what did they do? Recommended one dose? Halving profits?

Yeah, my mindset is "depressing". That's the problem here.

 

[xenon]

Anyone see that Nicola Sturgeon was caught without her facemask indoors chatting to people at a wake. She was challenged about it and issued an apology.

Yep. And I couldn't give a shit TBH. Just a fleeting mistake. One I've made myself. Meh.

 

[elbows]

Not a bloody reprisal of her greatest hits

From this late August bullshit.