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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

I don't understand what this means. (Literally; not having a go.)

Anyone got a link that expands on it?


I didn't either TBH :) Guessed it maybe takes 10 days for the first dose to have any appreciable effect. For enough antibodies to develop.

Link would be good. I'll give that Life Scientific podcast a go.
 
Re the schools discussion - this seems very relevant. New study from the US that shows that opening schools doesn't make a lot of difference when Covid rates are low/medium, but does affect spread when rates are high.

 
The professor on the news was explaining that if you take out the first ten days where nobody is protected it changes right up to 91%.
the woman on the lunchtime news was far less optimistic. She reckons the second dose significantly increases how long the vaccine would be effective for. It might be okay, but there just isn't the data to support that conclusion as that isn't how the trial was done. And testing it thoroughly now would take longer than giving out two doses.
 
In about a weeks time not putting everyone into tier 4 immediately is going to look rather fucking stupid.

Not sure, if might take longer than that. For all the focus on increased Christmas mixing, there is a lot of reduced contact at this time of year too, for example because of school holidays. There may also be more lag in some data over this period. So it might take longer for more bad signs to show up in some regions on top of the bad picture they already have. Maybe, it depends in part on how far behind current reality the picture we are given of these other places is right now.
 
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