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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Yes. Should have added all that. I’ve written about this quite extensively elsewhere (not on here) and so it felt like I was referring back to something I’d already said at length.

A lot of people are eating better, sleeping enough, catching up on family realtionships, and that’s all good. But a huge number of people are shut out of these benefits and advantages because of their circumstances, whether that be social isolation, low income, environmental issues like poor housing, shitty work, underlying poor health, living with disabilities, being in a minority population, struggling with depression, etc and so on.


ETA
It almost goes without saying that those of us who have been living at the shitty end of things will be far worse off than those who are living towards the better fatter end of the stick.

Yes, the wealth and health divide of the nation has been laid bare in the covid death rates. It couldn't be more starker. Added to your comments above about the potential longevity of the virus and the exceedingly bleak financial outlook the medium to long term looks about as grim as it has in my lifetime. That's some cheery shit right there.
 
Barry Island in Wales yesterday. It's insane that England is going it alone.

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I suspect a lot of policy is being driven by the situation in London. Its bad in London so stick the whole country into lockdown. Its looking much better in London so time to take the whole country out of lockdown. And to think it wasn't that long ago that Johnson had his little blue rosette on and was going around pretending he gave a shit about the rest of the country.

I do still wonder why the numbers have remained stubbornly high in some areas outside of London despite weeks of lockdown. I dunno.
 
I do still wonder why the numbers have remained stubbornly high in some areas outside of London despite weeks of lockdown. I dunno.

The picture as far as density of population is a bit complicated. While it seems likely that Londoners' use of crowded public transport is one thing that would have speeded spread, in lockdown London and other high density areas, people are likely to walk a short distance to do shopping, go to the park etc. In lower density areas, people are likely to drive to big supermarkets, further away. So you have big supermarkets with a large number of people from a wide area, compared to the london situation of smaller shops where the people in them mostly live very locally. You can see how the lower-density situation (once people have stopped using crowded public transport) might be more favourable to the spread of the virus, perhaps contrary to intuition.
 
Karol Sikora says "we are seeing a dramatic collapse in new infections...really good news"



Meanwhile the Guardian leads with the ONS saying the number of infections is stable. Sikora has been going around doing interviews saying the virus will die out naturally. He's also appeared in US Republican party ads slagging off the NHS and was once hired by the Libyan government to say that bomber fella would die within three months. I'd like to hear someone else say the same thing.



Various epidemiologists have been saying from early on that the virus could have a seasonal element. Either way I really fear we're going to get battered in the autumn. :(
 
Various epidemiologists have been saying from early on that the virus could have a seasonal element. Either way I really fear we're going to get battered in the autumn. :(

We'll find out pretty soon I suspect. Whilst NZ have done a good job and I reckon (guess) OZ got quite lucky. It wouldn't surprise me to see a flare up there if the virus is very seasonal.
 
Yes, yes, YES! Great to see Scotland following Wales' lead


 
Yes, yes, YES! Great to see Scotland following Wales' lead


 
Wow do you have a link for that . I don't really know anything about him. I follow him on twitter and he said some interesting things but not sure about other stuff. Seems a bit unlikely it would just go away naturally ? Has that ever happened before with a disease?
Meanwhile the Guardian leads with the ONS saying the number of infections is stable. Sikora has been going around doing interviews saying the virus will die out naturally. He's also appeared in US Republican party ads slagging off the NHS and was once hired by the Libyan government to say that bomber fella would die within three months. I'd like to hear someone else say the same thing.



Various epidemiologists have been saying from early on that the virus could have a seasonal element. Either way I really fear we're going to get battered in the autumn. :(
 
Meanwhile the Guardian leads with the ONS saying the number of infections is stable. Sikora has been going around doing interviews saying the virus will die out naturally. He's also appeared in US Republican party ads slagging off the NHS and was once hired by the Libyan government to say that bomber fella would die within three months. I'd like to hear someone else say the same thing.



Various epidemiologists have been saying from early on that the virus could have a seasonal element. Either way I really fear we're going to get battered in the autumn. :(
he is an idiot

eta Sikora that is
 
Wow do you have a link for that . I don't really know anything about him. I follow him on twitter and he said some interesting things but not sure about other stuff. Seems a bit unlikely it would just go away naturally ? Has that ever happened before with a disease?
US Republican anti healthcare ads:


This article has more about the Lockerbie stuff but behind Telegraph paywall.


And just google him in news for the disease just dying out stuff. He's an oncologist and obviously has strong feelings about the effect Covid19 is having on cancer treatment but I don't really see what that has to do with the anti lockdown angle. It's the virus not the lockdown that's impacting on other parts of the NHS and it would be having an even bigger effect (though possibly briefer) if we weren't locked down.
 
The picture as far as density of population is a bit complicated. While it seems likely that Londoners' use of crowded public transport is one thing that would have speeded spread, in lockdown London and other high density areas, people are likely to walk a short distance to do shopping, go to the park etc. In lower density areas, people are likely to drive to big supermarkets, further away. So you have big supermarkets with a large number of people from a wide area, compared to the london situation of smaller shops where the people in them mostly live very locally. You can see how the lower-density situation (once people have stopped using crowded public transport) might be more favourable to the spread of the virus, perhaps contrary to intuition.
Also, tall buildings shield you from 5G.
 
Whilst these scenes of overcrowding at the beaches are really not great on the plus side there does seem to be a very low risk of transmission when outside.

On a slightly different note can anyone help me out with regard to what is going on in London? Front page of the Telegraph today reporting the virus is beginning to "fade in London". Major hospitals have not reported one covid death in the last 48 hours, very small numbers of new positive tests and an 'R' rate notably lower than the rest of the country.

I know London had a dramatic peak and a sharp fall and I know we went into lockdown before other areas had peaked but I don't understand the situation now given the whole country has been in lockdown for a while now. Its not like London has been extra special good at lockdown, the opposite if anything. London parks have been busy every sunny day, the supermarkets are still very busy. There is a large young population many of whom have largely played lip service to lockdown. I just don't understand why the situation looks as optimistic as it does compared to the rest of the country? Have I misread this horribly? As I say, can anyone help me out here?

Perhaps its time for The Met to start patrolling the M25 and turning away non Londoners because they are likely virused-up? ;)

I dont have the answers you woudl like. I could cobble together some aspects but my current understanding is too lacking to do a proper job of it. I will keep my eyes open for any articles that may help.

One thing I will say is dont pay attention to very recent deaths reported numbers. There is lag, London will not have suddenly reached 0 new deaths per day, they are heading in that direction but the 48 hour period you say was mentioned will not remain at 0 deaths for London. For slightly older dates which have better data, London was down to the 20's or teens in terms of number of deaths in hospital per day. It could be around or below 10 now or very soon, but I have to wait to find out. Certainly its now reaching low levels where the might soon be the occasional day with no hospital deaths in London, but using the very latest daily figures for this is unsafe and misleading.

I dont have daily hospital admission data by region, but there was a story last week which said it was still 40-something per day in London.

This sort of stuff is on my long list of reasons to take things one week at a time and to make no presumptions at all about the future of this virus.
 
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Apparently the beaches here are really really busy and will only get worse. Friends in Devon are saying the same with lots of people travelling down. Loads of second homers I expect too. I’m fucked off. I’ve been pretty much stuck in this house since mid March, trying to be safe. I’m expected to return to work in some capacity but I’m scared because it feels like everyone around me is just doing whatever they fucking want.
I know it isn’t everyone but I’m starting to feel like the paranoid minority now.
I feel like this too. Even at work in a fucking hospital I feel that people think I'm being paranoid because I complain about lack of clarity regarding infection control practices.
 
Meanwhile the Guardian leads with the ONS saying the number of infections is stable. Sikora has been going around doing interviews saying the virus will die out naturally. He's also appeared in US Republican party ads slagging off the NHS and was once hired by the Libyan government to say that bomber fella would die within three months. I'd like to hear someone else say the same thing.



Various epidemiologists have been saying from early on that the virus could have a seasonal element. Either way I really fear we're going to get battered in the autumn. :(

Sikora is very right wing, especially on privatisation, NHS, etc.
 
If you're keeping social distances and generally being sensible, what's wrong with sitting in a park? What evidence there is seems to show that there's very low risk of getting infected outdoors in general, it's proximity, duration and enclosed airspace that seems key (eg The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them) - and, given the age profile of those who are dying (overwhelmingly elderly and/or already ill), this applies even more so to young and healthy people.

I wasn't saying there was anything wrong with sitting in the park. What surprised me was there so social distancing whatsover at all. Regardless of many various age groups from elderly to kids Slade Gardens was packed to the brim like it was a normal Saturday summer evening pre-COVID-19. Not all young people are going to be exempt from catching it either. Being of south Asian origin and having mild asthma I'd rather be practicing social distancing which a lot of people are not doing. I help take care of two women in their late 60s and early 70s and two of the only times in the past several weeks they went to Ruskin park no one - be it runner - or groups of people were doing anything to respect that distance. I'm not saying all people do this (I certainly do all I can to avoid people with as much distance as possible), but just like Brighton beach Slade gardens itself just looked like a party event. If anything it made me sad because I miss that community spirit being a proud local, but also having to put into perspective that we still have to be cautious in case of a second wave.
 
We'll find out pretty soon I suspect. Whilst NZ have done a good job and I reckon (guess) OZ got quite lucky. It wouldn't surprise me to see a flare up there if the virus is very seasonal.

One idea I've seen floated is that lifting (or semi-lifting) lockdown now is to do with getting through some infections during the summer when you'd expect them to naturally tail off, meaning that come next winter there'll be a larger number of people who (we assume) will have immunity and that will help flatten the inevitable winter upsurge.
 
I wasn't saying there was anything wrong with sitting in the park. What surprised me was there so social distancing whatsover at all. Regardless of many various age groups from elderly to kids Slade Gardens was packed to the brim like it was a normal Saturday summer evening pre-COVID-19. Not all young people are going to be exempt from catching it either. Being of south Asian origin and having mild asthma I'd rather be practicing social distancing which a lot of people are not doing. I help take care of two women in their late 60s and early 70s and two of the only times in the past several weeks they went to Ruskin park no one - be it runner - or groups of people were doing anything to respect that distance. I'm not saying all people do this (I certainly do all I can to avoid people with as much distance as possible), but just like Brighton beach Slade gardens itself just looked like a party event. If anything it made me sad because I miss that community spirit being a proud local, but also having to put into perspective that we still have to be cautious in case of a second wave.
Brockwell Park was rammed and more than a few were in a tight old school party group or playing football together, and there was plenty of people all closely hanging out together in the street and shops near me. It's like people think it's suddenly all over.
 
Brockwell Park was rammed and more than a few were in a tight old school party group or playing football together, and there was plenty of people all closely hanging out together in the street and shops near me. It's like people think it's suddenly all over.

I was looking at your photos opposite your place. Part of the reason I enjoy my early morning runs is the parks being emptier. I was at Brockwell running yesterday morning with my friend keeping our social distance but we noticed how a lot people were in huddled up groups and I pointed out to him that with the weather it's going to get busier later on. What's sad with a lot of the people going to either public spaces such as the park or those chicken shops is they unfortunately don't have gardens, much money or the space in general. I honestly dread to think how in my youth I could have endured this myself, but it's a real struggle for everyone. Brockwell was a bit quieter today, but I usually try and get home by midday. Have started getting into doing some additional riding on Santander bikes during the evening, so I kinda have myself to blame for going past Slade Gardens ;)
 
I wasn't saying there was anything wrong with sitting in the park. What surprised me was there so social distancing whatsover at all. Regardless of many various age groups from elderly to kids Slade Gardens was packed to the brim like it was a normal Saturday summer evening pre-COVID-19. Not all young people are going to be exempt from catching it either. Being of south Asian origin and having mild asthma I'd rather be practicing social distancing which a lot of people are not doing. I help take care of two women in their late 60s and early 70s and two of the only times in the past several weeks they went to Ruskin park no one - be it runner - or groups of people were doing anything to respect that distance. I'm not saying all people do this (I certainly do all I can to avoid people with as much distance as possible), but just like Brighton beach Slade gardens itself just looked like a party event. If anything it made me sad because I miss that community spirit being a proud local, but also having to put into perspective that we still have to be cautious in case of a second wave.
Walking home last night I did not see one single person social distancing. Everyone sitting on Purdown (a big green) were sitting together closely.

Actually that's not true.....just remembered there was a socially distanced queue outside the fried chicken shop. Thats something.
nice to see you Bond :)
 
Walking home last night I did not see one single person social distancing. Everyone sitting on Purdown (a big green) were sitting together closely.

Actually that's not true.....just remembered there was a socially distanced queue outside the fried chicken shop. Thats something.
nice to see you Bond :)

At least in that fried chicken shop they were respecting that! Been a bit different in some around Brixton sadly. Fortunately the one that Shippy and I go to occasionally nearby people are respectful about maintaining that distance.

Nice to see you too, kalidarkone ! You were always such great fun vivacious company. I will be coming back to Bristol eventually when it's safer to do so for a few days. It would be lovely to see you :)
 
I think that lots of villages in the Dales and the Lakes are keeping public toilets and tourist carparks closed. They are trying to keep them unattractive to visitors. Hopefully it's working.

Here in Cornwall all the public car parks are currently free, I do think if people keep coming to the beaches in droves they'll have to consider closing them. If experiences in Devon are anything to go by though, this will just lead to hundreds of arseholes parking in the road, blocking access for emergency vehicles, buses etc. North Devon plod are reporting they've run out of parking tickets.

My poor old mum, who lives in a seaside town in Devon, will become a prisoner in her own home at this rate :(
 
I feel like this too. Even at work in a fucking hospital I feel that people think I'm being paranoid because I complain about lack of clarity regarding infection control practices.
2 days ago I was sat on a concrete slab in a park at the side of a path in Rochdale, making a difficult phone call. The path itself was perhaps 5 feet wide but there was 20 yards of dry grass on the other side so it was easy to get safely round me. A family came past, first with a 5 year old running about 18 inches behind me, then the Mum walked straight towards me along the edge of the path. By the time she got 3 feet away I blurted out '6 feet' and she made a tiny detour, giving me a 'keep yer hair on'. Last week I was on a narrow pavement up against a main road and had 2 cyclists heading towards me at speed. I gave an arms spread wide gesture which lead to one of them leaning over, finger in face bellowing something I didn't catch. It did though end with '... you fucking baldy cunt'. Wonder if there's a theme here? :hmm:
 
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