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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

The Republic is doing fairly well, after IIRC their 6-week lockdown, that started two weeks before ours, average daily cases dropped from almost 1,200 to around 250, they have started to grow again, currently just over 350, but mainly in the border areas. Average daily deaths currently stand at 'just' 4.
Yeah I think that's right although there are problems, the call to return to work early by IBEC made the situation worse. I'm not living there but can only relate what friends and family say, they think the present government has been a shambles especially around the meat factories that have seen a very high percentage of cases, testing has been shambolic too with the government promoting private firms to compete with the HSE.

One thing that is apparent is that social solidarity is pretty robust in localities, when I was last home everyone was wearing masks, from the old farmers to the young ones when they were out and about or shopping/socialising. Of course there are gobshites that in the middle of the lockdown would go to Armagh or Belfast for a feed of pints.
 
The Republic is doing fairly well, after IIRC their 6-week lockdown, that started two weeks before ours, average daily cases dropped from almost 1,200 to around 250, they have started to grow again, currently just over 350, but mainly in the border areas. Average daily deaths currently stand at 'just' 4.
Ireland currently doing very significantly better than the UK.

Screen Shot 2020-12-18 at 14.22.12.jpg
 
Ireland currently doing very significantly better than the UK.

View attachment 244039

Interested as to why Slovenia appears at the top of almost every chart you publish. One could lazily say "Well they have a Trump acolyte for a PM". Which is true. But if you look at the measures they are taking, mandatory face masks, restrictions of movement between different areas, ban on all public transport except taxis, it does make me wonder why they are constantly showing up as terrible in these charts.

I'm interested because I love Slovenia. It's a beautiful place. And the actions taken + results don't at first appear to match up.
 
Interested as to why Slovenia appears at the top of almost every chart you publish. One could lazily say "Well they have a Trump acolyte for a PM". Which is true. But if you look at the measures they are taking, mandatory face masks, restrictions of movement between different areas, ban on all public transport except taxis, it does make me wonder why they are constantly showing up as terrible in these charts.

I'm interested because I love Slovenia. It's a beautiful place. And the actions taken + results don't at first appear to match up.

Its an odd one for sure. I suppose there may be a problem in people bothering with the rules?
 
Its an odd one for sure. I suppose there may be a problem in people bothering with the rules?

I guess. At least that's all I'd thought of. Plus they have a small population. Would that skew the stats into a lack of real meaning, or a distortion of it?

Look at their measures. They are stricter than ours.

 
I do not have time to investigate Slovakia at the moment but in general areas I would look at would include:

The timing of measures - if done too late then even strong measures are no miracle fix and take time to bring things down from very high levels where the damage was already done.

The state of their helathcare system including hospital capacity.

What gaping chasms may exist in terms of measures and compliance with those restrictions.
 
R Rate between 1.1 and 1.2 (with the usual regional variations). How shall we celebrate that fact? How about mixing families and generations who may not have mixed for months in single houses, with more than the normal number of people in a single room, with alcohol and hugs? Ideally, seat them facing each other on dining room tables. Then give the virus a few days to work its magic and move on to New Year. Then appoint the young 'uns as Special Virus Ambassadors and send them to university campuses all over the country. Happy Christmas from Boris, Matt and everyone needing a Barnard Castle eye test!
UK's crucial coronavirus R-rate is now 1.1-1.2 days before restrictions are eased - Mirror Online
 
I didn't catch the exact numbers but indy sage today said that some Christmas modelling estimated:

2 households meeting = r of 1.9-2.1
3 households meeting= r of 2.8-3.4

It is currently 1-1.2.

Something like those numbers anyway :eek:
:eek:

As with just about every stage of this, the government take things to the point where they end up having to do the right thing, but beyond the point where it might do much good. If those figures are even half right they provide enough ammo for johnson to 'cancel Christmas'. But given that turkeys have been ordered and plans made and also that we are only 7 days away from Christmas day, I can't see there being a u turn on this. Just a few desperate noises about 'restraint' and that 'whilst families can meet up they don't have to'. Basically, we know the plans we've made will kill lots of people but.... erm, well, that's it.
 
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Interested as to why Slovenia appears at the top of almost every chart you publish. One could lazily say "Well they have a Trump acolyte for a PM". Which is true. But if you look at the measures they are taking, mandatory face masks, restrictions of movement between different areas, ban on all public transport except taxis, it does make me wonder why they are constantly showing up as terrible in these charts.

I'm interested because I love Slovenia. It's a beautiful place. And the actions taken + results don't at first appear to match up.
It's worth bearing in mind that it's a very small country ... 2 million people. So, something like 1/5 the size of London, say.

There are probably Slovenia-sized regions of the UK, or other countries, that you could draw a line around, and produce similar looking peaks, but when those regions are counted in amongst the numbers for a larger country things get averaged out into something that looks less dramatic.

I think this is part of the story with Belgium too.
 
It's worth bearing in mind that it's a very small country ... 2 million people. So, something like 1/5 the size of London, say.

There are probably Slovenia-sized regions of the UK, or other countries, that you could draw a line around, and produce similar looking peaks, but when those regions are counted in amongst the numbers for a larger country things get averaged out into something that looks less dramatic.

I think this is part of the story with Belgium too.

Thats certainly one of the reasons I didnt pay that much attention to 'per 100,000' versions of death stats in the first wave. But thats partly because the first time round the varying epidemic timing meant some countries locked down when hardly any areas were affected, a circumstance in which the total population of the country is not as relevant as the population actually exposed to fairly widespread community cases.
 
Slovenia - I have a friend lives there, I'll ask him now.
a report from our man in Llubljana

I mean, the second wave numbers are atrocious and have not appreciably gone down in 2 months. They hover around the 1,500 to 2,000 a day mark, which when you consider it has a population of 2 million (what's that, the same as the Leeds metropolitan area?), it's astounding. And these numbers are not going down despite the fact that we are approaching our third month of total lockdown.

Although they opened some non-essential shops this week, and plan to open more tomorrow, they will be closed very soon again, likely until the end of January. I've not been to a pub, restaurant or bookshop since mid-October, and a 9 pm curfew has been in place for nearly 8 weeks now. The buses and trains began running on Tuesday, the first time in 2 months.

Reasons? Many. The withdrawal of financial support/furlough money has meant that people are going to infected workplaces, and going to work infected themselves, because they cannot afford to do otherwise. The furlough scheme was never as comprehensive or generous as even the UK scheme, with many, many people excluded. If I look out my window, there are just as many cars on the roads as there would be normally, or perhaps 10% less. They're not going out or to see friends, they're going to work.

It took the government a long time to admit this. When the numbers kept rising after the first 2 weeks of this lockdown, they blamed illicit parties and gatherings, the weekly anti-government bicycle protests and, quite gloriously, St Martin's Day (11 November), which is the day new wine becomes 'wine' and is usually accompanied by feed-ups and piss-ups across the country. Well, the protests haven't gone on since then, no one's out and about, parties have (I believe) dwindled, and the numbers are still up. It's work.

Mask compliance here is almost total, inside and out, although you do have the usual weirdos and misfits. But it's also and mostly this government. Thankfully, the fucking Guardian appears to have stopped referring to Janez Janša as centre-right. He's a far-right anti-democratic strongman, a real cunt, fully as nasty as Orban and Bolsonaro, but with added obvious head problems. He's used the pandemic for other purposes, basically: to change environmental legislation so that many NGOs are now banned from taking part in environmental assessment procedures (clear breach of EU law), strengthen the southern border (because, you know, it's immigrants that carry the virus), argue for the return of national service, get rid of the head of the army, the police, the police anti-corruption unit and the head of the national broadcaster (all of whom fucking hate him), threaten to put the army on the streets.

Why does this matter, beyond the obvious? Because he's basically not addressed Covid for 2 months, the minutes of the cabinet and committee meetings barely mention it, he's closed the country down, stopped it going out after 9 pm and that's his cover. By the way, the corruption in PPE procurement is fully as eye-watering as it is in the UK. I think Slovenia now has enough masks to last 200 years or something, all sourced through a PO Box number set up about 9 months ago.

They used to have a system of quarantine orders. So you'd get one of these and you'd be entitled to some cash. It's not that there was a conscious effort to get rid of them. It's just that they stopped being issued because the government's focus is elsewhere. I mean, negligence beyond belief. I say that Slovenia is almost totally mask-compliant and it is. But I don't know what goes on behind closed doors, really. Whether people are still gathering. I know people who have, don't know whether they still do. But the nature of this government, their appalling messaging, and their clear attacks (really fucking foul-mouthed and boorish) on civil society has meant that a lot of people on the left, including a lot of mates, just do not give a shit. Their rebellion against Janša has become a rebellion against Covid and, sadly, there are some who've moved into whacko territory.

Tl;dr Fascism
 
a report from our man in Llubljana

I mean, the second wave numbers are atrocious and have not appreciably gone down in 2 months. They hover around the 1,500 to 2,000 a day mark, which when you consider it has a population of 2 million (what's that, the same as the Leeds metropolitan area?), it's astounding. And these numbers are not going down despite the fact that we are approaching our third month of total lockdown.

Although they opened some non-essential shops this week, and plan to open more tomorrow, they will be closed very soon again, likely until the end of January. I've not been to a pub, restaurant or bookshop since mid-October, and a 9 pm curfew has been in place for nearly 8 weeks now. The buses and trains began running on Tuesday, the first time in 2 months.

Reasons? Many. The withdrawal of financial support/furlough money has meant that people are going to infected workplaces, and going to work infected themselves, because they cannot afford to do otherwise. The furlough scheme was never as comprehensive or generous as even the UK scheme, with many, many people excluded. If I look out my window, there are just as many cars on the roads as there would be normally, or perhaps 10% less. They're not going out or to see friends, they're going to work.

It took the government a long time to admit this. When the numbers kept rising after the first 2 weeks of this lockdown, they blamed illicit parties and gatherings, the weekly anti-government bicycle protests and, quite gloriously, St Martin's Day (11 November), which is the day new wine becomes 'wine' and is usually accompanied by feed-ups and piss-ups across the country. Well, the protests haven't gone on since then, no one's out and about, parties have (I believe) dwindled, and the numbers are still up. It's work.

Mask compliance here is almost total, inside and out, although you do have the usual weirdos and misfits. But it's also and mostly this government. Thankfully, the fucking Guardian appears to have stopped referring to Janez Janša as centre-right. He's a far-right anti-democratic strongman, a real cunt, fully as nasty as Orban and Bolsonaro, but with added obvious head problems. He's used the pandemic for other purposes, basically: to change environmental legislation so that many NGOs are now banned from taking part in environmental assessment procedures (clear breach of EU law), strengthen the southern border (because, you know, it's immigrants that carry the virus), argue for the return of national service, get rid of the head of the army, the police, the police anti-corruption unit and the head of the national broadcaster (all of whom fucking hate him), threaten to put the army on the streets.

Why does this matter, beyond the obvious? Because he's basically not addressed Covid for 2 months, the minutes of the cabinet and committee meetings barely mention it, he's closed the country down, stopped it going out after 9 pm and that's his cover. By the way, the corruption in PPE procurement is fully as eye-watering as it is in the UK. I think Slovenia now has enough masks to last 200 years or something, all sourced through a PO Box number set up about 9 months ago.

They used to have a system of quarantine orders. So you'd get one of these and you'd be entitled to some cash. It's not that there was a conscious effort to get rid of them. It's just that they stopped being issued because the government's focus is elsewhere. I mean, negligence beyond belief. I say that Slovenia is almost totally mask-compliant and it is. But I don't know what goes on behind closed doors, really. Whether people are still gathering. I know people who have, don't know whether they still do. But the nature of this government, their appalling messaging, and their clear attacks (really fucking foul-mouthed and boorish) on civil society has meant that a lot of people on the left, including a lot of mates, just do not give a shit. Their rebellion against Janša has become a rebellion against Covid and, sadly, there are some who've moved into whacko territory.

Tl;dr Fascism

Crikey.
 
Polite request, can people take the Slovenia discussion to the worldwide thread, and keep this one on topic, please?
 
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