Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

When I look at the weekly hospital data I usually get overwhelmed by how many graphs I end up with as a result, and dont know quite what to post.

Given the Bristol decision today, I have picked a couple on that basis. I remain available for requests, but please explicitly name the hospital trust you want to see graphs for.

This is number of Covid-19 patients in hospital beds in the trusts, and the blue line is a 7 day moving average. Made using the weekly data published today at Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

 

[elbows]

And from the same data, this sort of data picture is why I can sometimes be found complaining about how they handle Northampton.



What this particular data lacks is context compared to both the first wave, and bed capacity at each trust. There is some other data that can help with that but it all gets too much for me in terms of trying to collate and present it, and I've barely had a chance to even look at that other data to do with bed capacity. I do like to see the second wave with the context of the first wave though so I will probably try to join together earlier and never data again at some point.

 

[SpookyFrank]

When I look at the weekly hospital data I usually get overwhelmed by how many graphs I end up with as a result, and dont know quite what to post.

Given the Bristol decision today, I have picked a couple on that basis. I remain available for requests, but please explicitly name the hospital trust you want to see graphs for.

This is number of Covid-19 patients in hospital beds in the trusts, and the blue line is a 7 day moving average. Made using the weekly data published today at Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

View attachment 243927View attachment 243928

I would be interested in the Royal Devon and Exeter Foundation Trust as that is reportedly full to bursting, although the area remains in tier 2.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I remain available for requests, but please explicitly name the hospital trust you want to see graphs for.

I would be interested in seeing a graph for 'Western Sussex Hospitals' trust, if you can find the time.

 

[elbows]

Thanks for the requests. I will sort those out shortly.

For now here are mini versions of the same data for type 1 acute NHS hospital trusts in London. I'm not a Londoner so I never know the full context or which ones are of most interest, and the few I picked the other day were not a carefully crafted selection. So I'm just presenting the whole lot instead. Note that the scales on the y axis can vary considerably between each trust and Im afraid in these versions that detail is rather small.

As per the previous posts, its number of Covid-19 patients in hospital beds.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Oh, in summary, dear

 

[elbows]

I would be interested in the Royal Devon and Exeter Foundation Trust as that is reportedly full to bursting, although the area remains in tier 2.

OK here we are for number of Covid-19 patients in hospital beds in that trust. As I've probably indicated in the past, what I dont have time to do often is to find the stories behind all these curves, for example whether patients are sometimes redirected to other trusts to cope with bad moments. And I've never looked at all the other data and combined it in an attempt to differentiate the contributions to the current bed numbers that will be a mix of admissions, discharges, deaths and running out of capacity.

If I get my head round data such as capacity then I'll be sure to present it for this trust.

 

[elbows]

Oh and this is the daily Covid-19 admissions/diagnoses for that trust. Admissions figures are slightly further behind in terms of latest data available on a per trust basis.

 

[elbows]

Oh, in summary, dear

I bet they will leave a slightly different impression if they all showed the first wave levels on those graphs too. Its on my list of things to do. Still grim though, but the broader context would give more clues about how much capacity wiggle room the authorities think they have this time compared to the first wave.

 

[SpookyFrank]

OK here we are for number of Covid-19 patients in hospital beds in that trust. As I've probably indicated in the past, what I dont have time to do often is to find the stories behind all these curves, for example whether patients are sometimes redirected to other trusts to cope with bad moments. And I've never looked at all the other data and combined it in an attempt to differentiate the contributions to the current bed numbers that will be a mix of admissions, discharges, deaths and running out of capacity.

If I get my head round data such as capacity then I'll be sure to present it for this trust.

View attachment 243936

The dip there is about when they opened the local Nightingale I think.

E2a: yup, they started moving patients there from the RD&E on 26th November.

 

[BristolEcho]

I honestly cannot believe they have taken us out of tier 3 one weekend before Christmas. An absolute joke.

 

[elbows]

I would be interested in seeing a graph for 'Western Sussex Hospitals' trust, if you can find the time.

OK here are numbers in hospital, plus a bonus trust I decided to chuck in at the same time because of recent trajectory there.


The September peak seems worth investigating, was there a hospital or care home outbreak there at that time or some other community outbreak?

And Covid admissions per day:



I better stop with these graphs for tonight as I have rather filled the thread with them recently, sorry about that!

 

[Gerry1time]

I honestly cannot believe they have taken us out of tier 3 one weekend before Christmas. An absolute joke.

Lots of Tory and former Tory seats in and around Bristol no?

 

[Mr.Bishie]

elbows - Brighton spike was Falmer Uni campus

 

[BristolEcho]

Lots of Tory and former Tory seats in and around Bristol no?

It's all labour in Bristol last couple of elections I think. Outlying areas of South Glos and Somerset are Tory.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Cheers for that.

The September peak seems worth investigating, was there a hospital or care home outbreak there at that time or some other community outbreak?

For Western Sussex, IIRC that was about the time that three young lads came back from holiday in Spain, and instead of self-isolating, went on a pub crawl, then a house party, back to work, generally spreading it about all over the bloody place, before the council's track & trace sussed what was going on with this sudden peak of new cases.

They all picked-up £1000 fines, frankly they deserved more, like a month in Pontins's Chamber Sands, Isle of Mann style.

 

[elbows]

OK just one more graph.

One of the reasons we have probably seen the weak government response in recent months may be indicated by the following data. Its number of NHS England staff absences. Orange is overall levels of staff absences and blue is those they have recorded as being Covid-related absences (including self-isolation).

 

[elbows]

Sounds like Northern Ireland are going for a tougher lockdown than has been the fashion in recent times:

Coronavirus: NI facing six-week lockdown from 26 December

Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill says "while this is draconian, it's about saving lives".

www.bbc.co.uk

School details not established yet but sounds like they might be tough in that area too.

 

[strung out]

Lots of Tory and former Tory seats in and around Bristol no?

Not really. Like BristolEcho said, it's all Labour at the moment and there hasn't been more than one Tory seat in Bristol since the mid-90s. Plenty of Tories in South Gloucestershire, but that's stayed in Tier 3, which has annoyed all the Tory MPs there.

 

[AverageJoe]

Am I being unreasonable in thinking my brother’s family should not be going to see grandparents in Devon? They’re in Leeds (Tier 3) and Devon is 2. Also visiting is SIL’s sister’s family from London (T3). Don’t know why they don’t all just stay put.

I think you're right to be worried.

Firstly they are moving between Tiers which isn't encouraged. Secondly bu stopping in London that makes their three family bubble complete.

This means that they can't visit anyone else. It also means that your SILs family and your brothers family will have filled two of their three bubble spaces as well meaning that both groups will only be able to meet one more family in the five days.

I find it amazing that people still think that it's a bubble of three At Any One Time. It's not. It's a bubble of three and that's it. If your in a bubble you can't jojn another. I've no idea why this part hasn't been hammered home as it's probably what's driving the increase in cases. People think theyre following the rules but actually aren't because everything is so fucking unclear.

#endrant

 

[William of Walworth]

Herefordshire going down to Tier 1 was a bit iof a surprise to me, although admittedly I haven't yet seen relevant figures.

Presumably those have been going down somewhat?

Also, is Herefordshire's proximity to Wales -- I've heard plenty of Welsh accents when I've gone to Hereford --not deemed at all relevant, or deemed much of a risk?

ETA : Plus the Wales/Bristol proximity thing could also be relevant?

 

[Gerry1time]

It's all labour in Bristol last couple of elections I think. Outlying areas of South Glos and Somerset are Tory.

Last couple of elections sort of yes. But Tories (indeed all parties) play the psepholigical longer game no? Bristol West was Tory before it turned Labour in 1997 before turning Lib Dem in 2005. It's a gently swinging seat, and it's been hugely gentrified over the last 20 years (e.g. Stokes Fucking Croft). Wait til the hipsters have kids and emigrate to the countryside, selling their close to the city centre georgian houses for lots of money. Bristol North West was Conservative until 2015. Bristol East was close enough to swing in 2010 and 2015. Bristol South is admittedly pretty happy to let Labour do consistently little for it, whilst FaBS is Tory and Bristol East has had the Tories in second place since 2010.

I'm not saying it's the only reason, but you can surely see some motivation on the Tory government's part to make sure Bristol has a happier christmas no?

 

[strung out]

Last couple of elections sort of yes. But Tories (indeed all parties) play the psepholigical longer game no? Bristol West was Tory before it turned Labour in 1997 before turning Lib Dem in 2005. It's a gently swinging seat, and it's been hugely gentrified over the last 20 years (e.g. Stokes Fucking Croft). Wait til the hipsters have kids and emigrate to the countryside, selling their close to the city centre georgian houses for lots of money. Bristol North West was Conservative until 2015. Bristol East was close enough to swing in 2010 and 2015. Bristol South is admittedly pretty happy to let Labour do consistently little for it, whilst FaBS is Tory and Bristol East has had the Tories in second place since 2010.

I'm not saying it's the only reason, but you can surely see some motivation on the Tory government's part to make sure Bristol has a happier christmas no?

No. Bristol West had one of the biggest Labour majorities in the country in 2017, while Bristol East and South are nowhere near being marginals. Bristol North West now has a fairly comfortable Labour majority and has swung to Labour at every election after 2005. Filton and Bradley Stoke is still in Tier 3.

 

[Gerry1time]

No. Bristol West had one of the biggest Labour majorities in the country in 2017, while Bristol East and South are nowhere near being marginals. Bristol North West now has a fairly comfortable Labour majority and has swung to Labour at every election after 2005. Filton and Bradley Stoke is still in Tier 3.

As I clearly said in my post, the point is not the most recent elections. The point is the long game. This is a campaigning government rather than a governing government, taking place in a time of big swings if you take the longer view. The idea that the Tories would give up on seats in the south west based on recent results is a nonsense.

ETA: If you read what I wrote, I also said nothing about Bristol South being a marginal.

 

[flypanam]

Sounds like Northern Ireland are going for a tougher lockdown than has been the fashion in recent times:

Coronavirus: NI facing six-week lockdown from 26 December

Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill says "while this is draconian, it's about saving lives".

www.bbc.co.uk

School details not established yet but sounds like they might be tough in that area too.

The problem is that people will slip over the border and go drinking and gambling as well as other activities and fire up infection rates in the south, and in returning increase the chances of infection in the north. Needs an All Ireland strategy to cope with this.

 

[strung out]

As I clearly said in my post, the point is not the most recent elections. The point is the long game. This is a campaigning government rather than a governing government, taking place in a time of big swings if you take the longer view. The idea that the Tories would give up on seats in the south west based on recent results is a nonsense.

ETA: If you read what I wrote, I also said nothing about Bristol South being a marginal.

And I'm saying that the Tories have virtually no chance in Bristol, even in the long term. The suggestion that they would lower Bristol to tier 2 on the remote chance they could win a single seat in the city in 4 or more likely 9+ years time, while simultaneously keeping or raising loads of other Tory/marginal seats to tier 3 is nonsense. It just won't be a factor.

 

[Teaboy]

I find it amazing that people still think that it's a bubble of three At Any One Time. It's not. It's a bubble of three and that's it. If your in a bubble you can't jojn another. I've no idea why this part hasn't been hammered home as it's probably what's driving the increase in cases. People think theyre following the rules but actually aren't because everything is so fucking unclear.

I'm increasingly hearing the word 'bubble' being thrown around with abandon like its some sort of special word that makes all the rules and laws invalid. Its becoming like a less loony version of Magna Carta.

I do get that the rules are all over the place, especially the Christmas ones but still...

 

[Teaboy]

The problem is that people will slip over the border and go drinking and gambling as well as other activities and fire up infection rates in the south, and in returning increase the chances of infection in the north. Needs an All Ireland strategy to cope with this.

We are hearing a lot about the situation in Norn Iron but little about the Republic. Is the situation better over the border and any thoughts on why that might be? I get the government in the North is a bit of a shower at the moment.

 

[BassJunkie]

An ounce is 28.3495 no?

This is down the road from me:

Ninebar | Leicester

Ninebar, Leicester, United Kingdom. 2,705 likes · 16 talking about this · 3,745 were here. The daddy of Leicester West End watering holes, we opened our doors in 1997 and have been going from...

www.facebook.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

We are hearing a lot about the situation in Norn Iron but little about the Republic. Is the situation better over the border and any thoughts on why that might be? I get the government in the North is a bit of a shower at the moment.

The Republic is doing fairly well, after IIRC their 6-week lockdown, that started two weeks before ours, average daily cases dropped from almost 1,200 to around 250, they have started to grow again, currently just over 350, but mainly in the border areas. Average daily deaths currently stand at 'just' 4.