Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[StoneRoad]

Grim isn't up to it now, and certainly will be an inadequate description in January.
Devastating might be more accurate when the affects of the crimble mixing show up.

In my area, the superspreading seems to be via the schools - the rise seems to primarily co-locate with the secondary school catchment and much less with the commuting to the main local employer.
Two glimmers of hope -
a) a lot of kids were out of school/uni and in isolation in the past few days (maybe a week so far) and the case rate has dropped from a peal of almost 1350/100,00 to only 1280/100,000 (100 down to 90 cases in the past week - to 13th December)
b) some vaccinations have happened, not sure if any in this immediate area - my SiL lives almost 40 miles away, but she got her first jab as she's worked in NHS as a radiographer and had health issues enough to have been shielding.

I'm hoping that MHRA pass the Oxford Vaccine sooner rather than later, as rolling that out should be easier.
(interestingly, USA's FDA has passed their own "Moderna" in the past few hours (vote was 20-0 with 1 abstention for 18+ yr olds).

 

[LDC]

It's hardly conspiracy to suggest that prominence is given to certain stories, sometimes beyond their actual importance, in order to spin the appearance of the government's management of the situation.

That would still require loads of scientists and institutions in the UK and other countries to go along with it, but anyway, I read the quip as suggesting it possibly didn't exist in any meaningful or significant way, if they didn't mean that was my mistake. I'm a bit hyper vigilant for conspiracy stuff, sorry Artaxerxes

 

[Mation]

This new strain, and the fact that they think it's more infectious, thus spreading faster, especially in London and the south-east, is clearly causing major concern amongst SAGE & the government.

There was an emergency meeting of ministers last night to discuss it, and further restrictions, including possible curbs on travel between the south-east and the rest of the UK, with an announcement possibly coming as earlier as today.

Merry fucking Christmas from covid.

Boris Johnson calls crisis meeting over new Covid strain

PM may introduce tighter travel restrictions due to rapid spread of virus mutation in south-east England

www.theguardian.com

Who thinks the new strain is more infectious?

 

[Badgers]

 

[Supine]

Who thinks the new strain is more infectious?

A couple of blokes on urban and a few journalists who never studied biology at school

 

[Mation]

I'm a bit hyper vigilant for conspiracy stuff,

 

[cupid_stunt]

Who thinks the new strain is more infectious?

No one has confirmed that, hence I posted, 'they think it's more infectious.'

A couple of blokes on urban and a few journalists who never studied biology at school

From that link...

It is understood that government scientists have subsequently presented new evidence to ministers about the behaviour of this variant. A government official said: “There are concerns that it is more transmissible than the existing strain – and that sense is hardening.”

Professor Sir Mark Walport – a member of the government’s scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) – said there was a real possibility that the strain could have a “transmission advantage”.

 

[Mation]

No one has confirmed that, hence I posted, 'they think it's more infectious.'



From that link...

I'm not sure that's the same as thinking it actually is more infectious, but I take your point; it's certainly being played like that.

 

[kabbes]

Point of order: infectiousness and transmissibility are different albeit related terms. When they say there are concerns that the new strain might have transmissibility advantages, that does not necessarily make it more infectious, although possibly increased infectiousness would be a transmissibility advantage — I’m no expert.

 

[Mation]

Point of order: infectiousness and transmissibility are different albeit related terms. When they say there are concerns that the new strain might have transmissibility advantages, that does not necessarily make it more infectious, although possibly increased infectiousness would be a transmissibility advantage — I’m no expert.

You're right that there is a difference between ability to pass between people and the ability to cause more severe disease within a person, but the term for the former is infectiousness (synonymous with transmissibility), and the term for the latter is infectivity.

I learned this not very long ago!

https://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/new-words-you-have-learnt-today.337390/post-16528383

 

[kabbes]

Now I’m confused because I thought transmissibility was associated with contagiousness, which is different to infectiousness

 

[Mation]

Now I’m confused because I thought transmissibility was associated with contagiousness, which is different to infectiousness

What's your understanding of the difference?

I'd have them (contageousness and infectiousness) as synonymous, also with transmissibility.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Grim hospital figures in Kent.

Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells NHS trust had 221 Covid-19 patients on December 16 – around 120 more than the 98 they admitted during the first peak on April 8.

On Wednesday, the East Kent Hospitals University NHS Foundation Trust treated 357 people with coronavirus – almost twice the maximum number they had at any point in spring. Figures reached 187 on April 20.

London is still well below its first wave peak of coronavirus hospital patients, but NHS trusts are facing pressure as cases increase across the city. Some 2,543 patients were recorded in the capital on December 16 – up from 1,787 a week ago. London saw 5,201 patients in hospital during the first wave peak on April 9.

That's not far short of a 50% increase in a week!

Hospitals in south-east cancel treatments as Covid cases surge

Trusts have promised cancer operations and other urgent treatments 'will go ahead as normal'.

metro.co.uk

 

[cupid_stunt]

Well, a meeting late into last night with senior ministers, and starting about now Johnson is holding a virtual cabinet meeting, with a press briefing this afternoon.

Clearly, they are having a squeaky bum time.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Well, a meeting late into last night with senior ministers, and starting about now Johnson is holding a virtual cabinet meeting, with a press briefing this afternoon.

Clearly, they are having a squeaky bum time.

Rumours of a London lockdown and/or special tier 4 status.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Rumours of a London lockdown and/or special tier 4 status.

Plus possible travel restrictions and changes to the Christmas rules.

 

[maomao]

So what time is the big u-turn announcement?

 

[cupid_stunt]

So what time is the big u-turn announcement?

No time confirmed yet, it's only breaking news that is will be happening.

 

[elbows]

Yeah the press were full of lockdown 3 and tier 4 stories last night.

Certainly better to announce stuff today rather than wait for some preposterously timed day next week.

 

[maomao]

Well it's the Saturday before Christmas so it would be ideal to do just after half the country's done their biggest grocery shop of the year in preperation for large family dinners.

 

[kabbes]

What's your understanding of the difference?

I'd have them (contageousness and infectiousness) as synonymous, also with transmissibility.

Basically, as you said. Infectious relates to the disease’s acquirability (as opposed, for example, to it being congenital) whereas contagious means its ability to specifically be acquired from others.

However, I worry this topic might be two people who don’t work in infectious diseases both trying to draw out distinctions outside of our respective expertise!

 

[chilango]

I think they'll announce that they're sticking to it, urge caution and warn of consequences down the line...

...then early next week do a panicked U-turn once it's well and truly too late.

[insert hit song by the Hives here]

 

[elbows]

Well it's the Saturday before Christmas so it would be ideal to do just after half the country's done their biggest grocery shop of the year in preperation for large family dinners.

Unused Christmas food offers a handy brexit food stash.

 

[StoneRoad]

But I bet they'll give far more time than is absolutely necessary before implementing whatever changes have been decided.

But it will be just enough time for people to go out and continue to spread the plague ...

 

[cupid_stunt]

Emergency press briefing confirmed for 4pm today.

 

[Sue]

Emergency press briefing confirmed for 4pm today.

Which probably means it'll actually start at 6:30.

 

[Supine]

'sometime after 4pm'

Hopefully it won't keep getting delayed until after 7pm this time.

 

[TopCat]

Emergency press briefing confirmed for 4pm today.

We must do something
We must do it late
We must make it ineffectual

 

[TopCat]

Hands space boompsie daisy

 

[Supine]

We must do something
We must do it late
We must make it ineffectual

We must do exactly what we said we wouldn't do 24 hrs ago