Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

some of his comments on covid (which to be frank are hardly heretical)

Its a complete fucking disgrace to describe the winter plan as too strict. If I'd been his public health director I would have resigned, but of course someone like me wouldn't have been his public health director in the first place so thats easy for me to say.

 

[elbows]

I saw some stuff in the news the other day that suggested London was placed into tier 2 instead of tier 3 after aggressive lobbying about job losses in the hospitality and entertainments industry - while I'm not keen on the narrative of punishment many local leaders are leaning into, the question does need to be asked why these job losses are bearable in Manchester and Birmingham (and Preston, Lancaster, Leeds and Newcastle etc etc) but not in London.

Yes I need to talk more about London. I have a graph that may surprise people that I will prepare later.

I suspect its a combination of very heavy lobbying, combined with the mixed picture the data shows. I dont have the same quality and quantity of data that the government has, but from what is available I can see why the London decision was delicately poised between tiers 2 and 3, leaving the lobbyists with it all to play for.

Other issues that may have tipped the balance include Londons hospital and critical care capacity, the ability to spread patients around to hospitals in lesser-affected parts of London if thats what the situation required, and some obvious dinner party and restaurant weaknesses of the intelligentsia. The nature of 'professional' jobs in London and the South East may also be part of the explanation for why these regions have so far fared better in the second wave, does anybody have any regional data for percentage of workers working from home?

 

[The39thStep]

I saw some stuff in the news the other day that suggested London was placed into tier 2 instead of tier 3 after aggressive lobbying about job losses in the hospitality and entertainments industry - while I'm not keen on the narrative of punishment many local leaders are leaning into, the question does need to be asked why these job losses are bearable in Manchester and Birmingham (and Preston, Lancaster, Leeds and Newcastle etc etc) but not in London.

Yes I read a few reports/speculation that Gove had argued for Tier3 , Hancock had argued for the worst areas to go Tier 3 the others in Tier 2. Other positions were put however its suggested the clinching argument was that in Tier 3 job losses would be 550,000 and Tier 2 50, 000.

 

[elbows]

Before I get to my surprising graph, some other London data.

Much was made about what the latest REACT study showed, but most of the focus was on the overall national numbers.

The regional picture is not brilliantly presented in the report but I dont have time or ability to present it in a different form. For London it tends to show the expected pattern, that London is doing comparatively badly in terms of R, but relatively well in terms of recently levels of prevalence.


These next charts indicate that London has seen a significant decrease in the age group at greatest risk. Especially compared to the West Midlands where numbers in the 65+ age group have gone in a deadly direction This chart is also of interest in terms of all the other regions, and increases in young age groups.

From https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...lth-innovation/imperial_react1_r7_interim.pdf

 

[cupid_stunt]

Its a complete fucking disgrace to describe the winter plan as too strict.

Agreed.

I am struggling with people around here moaning that we are in tier 2 when cases are the lowest in England - 28/100k, including the tier 1 areas of Cornwall & Isle of Wight.

Last week I was pointing out we were surround by district council areas with high case numbers, but those have dropped a lot, and whole of West Sussex has dropped to something just over 60, so now I am having to point we are surrounded by other counties with higher numbers, but I seem to be a lone voice.

FFS, people travel between those counties, yes we have fucking low numbers, but I want to keep it that way, and the Christmas period is going to be enough of a problem, without further relaxation of restrictions.

Sussex town has the lowest coronavirus rate in the whole of England

A SUSSEX town now has the lowest coronavirus rate in the whole of England.

www.theargus.co.uk

 

[elbows]

So here is the London data that I find surprising.

First a graph that is not surprising, number of Covid-19 patients in hospital, where we are used to seeing London well below the sort of level that badly affected second wave regions have faced:



But look where London is in terms of number of covid-19 patients in mechanical ventilator beds, its now got the second most patients in this category:


Data is from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

 

[elbows]

I think one of the reason Burnhams comments often wind me up so much is that much of what else he says is reasonable, and then he goes and blows it all with one ill-considered phrase.

For example the local press covered his comments more comprehensively than the earlier BBC thing I linked to:

Andy Burnham slams ministers for the way they spared London from Tier 3

"That is clearly unfair. It gives the impression that jobs outside of London are not worth the same"

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

Mr Burnham said the decision to allow three households to mix at Christmas was 'too much' and risked another spike in January when the NHS struggles even at the best of times.

He said: "This is I think part of the problem. The government has been too strict in December to allow a too permissive a Christmas period... I think a more balanced approach should have been taken here"

The mayor added: "I think a more steady approach would have been better because January is the worst possible time in the National Health Service with or without Covid. And I think it's a risk to allow five days of mixing of three households."

If I had been interviewing his when he said that then I would have asked for examples of what they were doing that was too strict. Also if you are worried about January then you should still be worried about January even if we were having an isolated Christmas without special rules. And if you are worried about January, you have to do things in the months leading up to January, which last time I checked very much includes December.

 

[elbows]

Its fair to say I am not a big fan of hospital upper management, and that certainly includes my local hospital.

Nuneaton hospital's chief executive has said staff there have "not all faced the economic hardship of others" during the coronavirus pandemic so there is not a "strong economic argument" to give them free parking.

Glen Burley, CEO of George Eliot Hospital, made the comment in a report to hospital board members after concerns and complaints about why staff have to pay to park at the site.

Hospital boss explains why staff have to pay for parking

Glen Burley, CEO of George Eliot Hospital, speaks in a report to hospital board members

www.coventrytelegraph.net

 

[elbows]

I have not been able to face watching MPs debating in parliament today, but from what I've just been reading Starmer seems to have managed to say mostly the right things today.

Responding to the prime minister, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says he recognises the need for continued restrictions and tougher measures.

But he says the financial support in place for affected communities is "nowhere near sufficient".

He adds that without the right health measures in place - such as a working trace and isolate system "there are real risks that this plan is incapable of controlling the virus this winter".

"We've been here before," says Sir Keir Starmer.

He recalls the PM telling MPs on 10 June that local restrictions would only last for "a few weeks or even a few days".

Leicester has just gone into the 154th day of restrictions, he says.

He tells MPs that the PM's previous plans, including the rule of six and the original tier system haven't worked either.

"The prime minister has a record of over-promising and under-delivering," Sir Keir says.

"He should not be surprised that we and the British people are far less convinced this time around."

Sir Keir says the public cannot be blamed for being "sceptical" about government's handling of the pandemic.

"This is at least plan number five and the first four didn't work," Sir Keir says.

"We need to proceed with precision and caution, but instead of levelling with the British public, the prime minister has spent the weekend telling his backbenchers that... within two weeks or so local areas have a real prospect of dropping to a tier below the one they are in."

"In my view that is highly unlikely and we might as well face that now," he adds.

Sir Keir Starmer says one of the main problems the prime minister hasn't addressed is that only a fraction of people who should be self-isolating are doing so.

The Labour leader says there are "huge gaps in support" for these people, with only one in eight workers qualifying for the £500 self-isolation support payment.

“People want to do the right thing but for many there’s a real fear that self-isolation means a huge loss of income that they simply can’t afford," he says.

Sir Keir Starmer says there are half a million people who should be self-isolating but have been missed by the test and trace system.

"That is a huge gap in the defences," he says adding "blind optimism is not a plan."

On economic support, Starmer says despite "six economic plans in nine months" the level of support is still insufficient.

He says the scheme "doesn't fairly reflect" the difficulties of different regions and notes that Manchester has been given the same level of support as the Isle of Wight.

"That is unfair and everybody knows it is unfair," he says.

He also says millions of self-employed people "remain unfairly excluded from the government's support schemes".

Sir Keir Starmer finishes his speech by saying it is "not in the national interest" to vote down the restrictions so his party will allow them to pass.

He says he accepts the case for restrictions but we “want a plan that’s going to work” and the prime minister’s is “full of holes”.

The Labour leader again highlights issues with test and trace and support for those self-isolating.

“These are huge gaps in the system and to simply vote through a plan without recognising those problems is not going to help," he adds.

I have taken these from various entries on the BBC live updates page. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55142152

 

[elbows]

Quite a lot of Labour MPs seem destined to make my pandemic shit list.

Northern Labour MPs reluctant to abstain on Covid tiers vote

Several MPs say they wanted to vote against tier restrictions and some may still break party line to do so

www.theguardian.com

 

[two sheds]

I'd have thought starmer would have done better proposing amendments on funding for workers affected by the regulations.

Not that it would make any difference.

 

[elbows]

Yes meaningful amendments have been rather thin on the ground in this pandemic. Nor would I expect them to properly address the education elephants in the room.

 

[Badgers]

I'd have thought starmer would have done better proposing amendments on funding for workers affected by the regulations.

Not that it would make any difference.

#worldbeating

 

[elbows]

Another look at the stance of some Labour MPs:

Labour's Covid rebels are not breaking the whip for the same reasons - LabourList

Labour MPs are being instructed by the leadership to abstain on the House of Commons vote tonight that…

labourlist.org

Emma Lewell-Buck and Derek Twigg easily make it onto the shit list, idiots. Several others likely make it based on comments that I can at least understand, but are still far too stupid when it comes to pubs and restaurants, such as Andrew Gwynne.

I'm glad I dont have to spend too much time in this pandemic looking at what MPs think, today is a relatively rare exception.

 

[Raheem]

Gove seems to have done a U-turn, this morning saying scotch eggs were not a substantial meal and this afternoon insisting they are. I'm a bit terrified of the scotch egg lobby now.

 

[elbows]

I fear I will have to create an entirely new category on my pandemic shit list for Desmond Swayne.

 

[elbows]

Well I suppose he has ensured that no matter the restrictions, the spirit of pantomime season is still with us.

 

[elbows]

Covid: Daily Mail gave NHS masks linked to Chinese Uighur factory

A PPE delivery is believed to have come from a Chinese factory suspected of using a labour scheme.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Badgers]

Peston but mildly interesting

 

[andysays]

Well I suppose he has ensured that no matter the restrictions, the spirit of pantomime season is still with us.

Oh no it isn't

 

[The39thStep]

Peston but mildly interesting

Mildly amusing but covid rates change , UKIPs vote in that election doesn’t .

 

[cupid_stunt]

So, 78 MPs voted against the new restrictions, no news yet on the breakdown, but most will be Tory cunts.

ETA - 56 Tory cunts, 22 other cunts.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Peston but mildly interesting

 

[zora]

I fear I will have to create an entirely new category on my pandemic shit list for Desmond Swayne.

This man's rantings were infinitely improved by the gently falling snow of the new festive style.

 

[souljacker]

I fear I will have to create an entirely new category on my pandemic shit list for Desmond Swayne.

What a tool. My covid-denying mate has already posted that on our whatsapp whilst bitching that he won't be able to go on holiday.

 

[mx wcfc]

So, 78 MPs voted against the new restrictions, no news yet on the breakdown, but most will be Tory cunts.

ETA - 56 Tory cunts, 22 other cunts.

Jeremy Corbyn voted against. (apologies as ever for the poor copy from Twitter.

Jeremy Corbyn
@jeremycorbyn

I voted against the Government's proposals tonight. I don't believe the measures are what is needed to drive down the levels of the virus. The financial support packages being offered are inadequate, inconsistent and unfair to many areas.

(clearly ding his best to get the whip restored)

 

[elbows]

Of the Labour (+ Corbyn) MPs who voted against the government, I had a brief go at ascertaining which ones were doing so more along the lines of the financial support + zero covid, fight against the virus more strongly position, as opposed to those who seemed to be coming out with the sort of economy + less restrictions position that I spend time shitting on.

I'd say it was roughly 50-50 but a few of them didnt make it very easy for me to quickly establish their full position, so its possible that one outnumbered the other by a couple.

 

[gosub]

Well I suppose he has ensured that no matter the restrictions, the spirit of pantomime season is still with us.

oh no it isnt

 

[Raheem]

Oh no it isn't

You're behind him!

 

[DaveCinzano]

“I think my R's getting bigger...”

“I SHOULD SAY SO”