Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Badgers]

This just makes them look weak and pandering though. A strong message of don't travel cross country to see your family at this time. We know it's difficult etc...

Bbut that's about pah for this lot. Weak, venal and a bit dim. They could actually have won back some confidence with a stronger message on this but no, they do the obvious thing. Dismal cunts.

It will okay for them and their mates/donors though. They have big houses with huge 'distanced' high ceilling dining rooms, ample spare bedrooms all en-usuite, acres of land and cleaners to disinfect everything afterwards

 

[frogwoman]

I really hope I haven't come across as insensitive BTW. I've had to forego a whole lot of stuff that is really important to me this year and saying 'oh lots of people who aren't religious or Christian get together on Christmas etc' well, yea, but a huge part of that is because its so difficult to see family on other important times throughout the year and it's a huge reminder of what pisses me off so much about it anyway

 

[elbows]

I might have to force myself to watch this later:

Was the scientific advice for lockdown flawed?

A BBC documentary highlights weaknesses in the expert analysis of the likely impact of coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

It sounds like a lot of its focus is about the modelling flaws that contributed to the first lockdown being late. At least one person will talk about the benefit of hindsight, but we know that is a shit defence because some of us knew that they were getting the timing and estimated sim of epidemic all wrong at the time (via things like the claim that we were 4 weeks behind Italy when really simple data anyone could look at indicated we were 2 weeks behind).

Without recycling everything I said in the buildup to that and for months afterwards, my simplified summary of the delays was that when factoring in political factors, public sentiments and timing of reality checks in some European countries, the best we could have hoped for was to have locked down 2 weeks earlier than we actually did. Which would have made a large difference to deaths etc. And when apportioning blame, I would have blamed the first weeks delay on science/modelling failures, and the second weeks delay on the politics of Johnson & co.

 

[lazythursday]

Why can't the government have some imagination and announce now, a new 2-3 day one-off national holiday in June, to include all sorts of special events and baubles, as a substitute for Christmas (and other missed religious events) and reward for coping with a terrible winter? Give people a reason for doing the right thing and a sense of something to look forward to.

 

[emanymton]

Why can't the government have some imagination and announce now, a new 2-3 day one-off national holiday in June, to include all sorts of special events and baubles, as a substitute for Christmas (and other missed religious events) and reward for coping with a terrible winter? Give people a reason for doing the right thing and a sense of something to look forward to.

Because there is no way of knowing what the situation will be in June.

 

[elbows]

I dont have much to say about the Christmas stuff yet because I wait to see how hospitals are looking over the next few days and weeks first.

But meanwhile in Northern Ireland:

Coronavirus: Talks continue to reach agreement on restrictions

The executive has been meeting to consider calls for new Covid interventions by the end of November.

www.bbc.co.uk

tormont ministers have been told that more Covid-19 interventions are necessary before the end of this month, BBC News NI understands.
The warning is part of Health Minister Robin Swann's latest advice to the executive.
It is believed the paper spells out that interventions are needed in late November.
Otherwise, a full lockdown in mid-December would not be enough to prevent hospital services being overwhelmed.
Ministers are set to discuss the advice from Mr Swann and his officials at Thursday's executive meeting.

This does not surprise me as Northern Ireland does not exactly have a wonderful hospital and intensive care capacity, and just look at the number of people in hospital compared to the first wave there:


Made using UK dashboard data.

 

[emanymton]

Can I just say I was looking forward to Christmas on my own. I'll be deverstated if I don't have government rules to hide behind.

 

[lazythursday]

Because there is no way of knowing what the situation will be in June.

It's almost certainly going to be better than now, given increasing evidence of a certain amount of seasonality to the virus, and the fact plenty of vaccine should have been distributed by then.

 

[Badgers]

It's almost certainly going to be better than now, given increasing evidence of a certain amount of seasonality to the virus, and the fact plenty of vaccine should have been distributed by then.

Plenty of or 'adequate' vaccine?

 

[zora]

Someone talking sense, publicly, at last:

Trying to have near-normal Christmas risks 'throwing fuel on fire' of Covid pandemic, says government science adviser
A scientist who advises the government as a member of Sage, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, has said that trying to allow people to have a near-normal Christmas risks “throwing fuel on the fire” of the Covid pandemic.
Andrew Hayward, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London (UCL), made the comment in an interview on the Today programme when he said that allowing families to mix at Christmas would pose “substantial risks”. Speaking in a personal capacity, Hayward said:

Mixing at Christmas does pose substantial risks, particularly in terms of bringing together generations with high incidence of infection with the older generations who currently have much lower levels of infection and are at most risk of dying if they catch Covid.
My personal view is we’re putting far too much emphasis on having a near-normal Christmas.
We know respiratory infections peak in January so throwing fuel on the fire over Christmas can only contribute to this.

Asked whether people should put the welfare of parents and grandparents first, Hayward said:

Well exactly. We’re on the cusp of being able to protect those elderly people who we love through vaccination and it would be tragic to throw that opportunity away and waste the gains we’ve made during lockdown by trying to return to normality over the holidays.

He said the rules were unnecessarily complicated.

When policies are undulating between stay at home to save lives, eat out to help out, the tier system, second lockdown and proposals for an amnesty on social distancing, it’s a highly inconsistent message.
Whereas in fact the things that people need to do to stay safe and to keep their loved ones safe are relatively simple. Avoid, as far as possible, indoor close contact with people outside of your household, avoid crowded places and protect the most vulnerable by not putting them at unnecessary risk.

And he said it was not enough to get R, the reproduction number, close to 1.

Approaching 1 is not good enough - that still means the infection is increasing. It needs to be clearly below 1 and it needs to get to low levels, rather than the high levels that we still have.

Currently R for the UK is estimated to be between 1 and 1.2

 

[Thora]

My family usually do a big Christmas (eg 40-50 people coming from across the country to get together) so obviously we're not doing that. I intend to follow whatever rules are in place then though. We were planning on sticking to the rule of 6.

 

[elbows]

It's almost certainly going to be better than now, given increasing evidence of a certain amount of seasonality to the virus, and the fact plenty of vaccine should have been distributed by then.

So far the main evidence is that human behaviour is key, and there is far more to that than seasonality, although the seasons do influence human behaviour.

I say this because countries in Europe experienced summer lulls in the virus because of the lingering effects of lockdowns, and slow relaxation of those measures. In the USA where lockdowns were incomplete to start with and where some states rushed to reopen everything quickly, they ended up with an extra wave as a result, a resurgence that summer did not offer protection against. Eventually, once the relaxations were complete in Europe, schools were back and pubs and restaurants open, we also ended up with massive viral resurgence, before summer had even really ended.

But this picture is incomplete, since I need to see quite how bad things can get in winter, and am not trying to claim that winter doesn't make things even worse. But its unlikely that even then I will be able to separate human behaviour from weather conditions etc.

 

[xenon]

It's almost certainly going to be better than now, given increasing evidence of a certain amount of seasonality to the virus, and the fact plenty of vaccine should have been distributed by then.

IS there any seasonality to the virus other than people spend more time out doors and the possible vitemine D boost that activity may bring?

It would be daft to promise anything in June at this stage. As we speak, there is no date of a vaccine roll out. Then there's that little thing called Brexit and it's supply implications...

I'm not being negative and do feel reasonably confident things will be a lot better this time next year, from summer 21 onwards. Just I'm more of a chickens vs eggs counter.

 

[chilango]

Why can't the government have some imagination and announce now, a new 2-3 day one-off national holiday in June, to include all sorts of special events and baubles, as a substitute for Christmas (and other missed religious events) and reward for coping with a terrible winter? Give people a reason for doing the right thing and a sense of something to look forward to.

Cos we're gonna get that anyway when Liz Windsor shuffles off.

 

[frogwoman]

Hope that happens in 2022 because if she dies of covid it will be unbearable lol.

 

[zora]

Why can't the government have some imagination and announce now, a new 2-3 day one-off national holiday in June, to include all sorts of special events and baubles, as a substitute for Christmas (and other missed religious events) and reward for coping with a terrible winter? Give people a reason for doing the right thing and a sense of something to look forward to.

I quite like that idea. No, we don't know exacly what things will be like, but being able to do stuff outdoors would certainly seem better. (I would probably have more of a personal caveat around it being some sort of terrible flag-wavy, festival of Brexit sort of occasion under this government...eta see also chilango's post above).
But how feasible this particular idea is or not, it's at least an imaginative attempt of getting somehow in front of this issue, rather than the desperate "normality" at Christmas thing, as has been discussed.

 

[Cid]

Why can't the government have some imagination and announce now, a new 2-3 day one-off national holiday in June, to include all sorts of special events and baubles, as a substitute for Christmas (and other missed religious events) and reward for coping with a terrible winter? Give people a reason for doing the right thing and a sense of something to look forward to.

Because it’s asking people to defer something they want/need to break up the winter for 6 months. It could be done, probably. Going to be interesting to see how places in the east handle Christmas/Lunar new year. But a government capable of pulling that off would be using different lockdown models, would have used the summer lull, would have funded development of offline teaching etc etc.

 

[chilango]

Hope that happens in 2022 because if she dies of covid it will be unbearable lol.

She'd probably just get the strain that Johnson and Trump got anyway.

 

[nagapie]

She'd probably just get the strain that Johnson and Trump got anyway.

You mean the one you get when you've had a lifetime of privilege and riches. Yes, sadly.

 

[MickiQ]

Cos we're gonna get that anyway when Liz Windsor shuffles off.

I don't think it will be much of an holiday when Brenda pegs it to be honest, We'll probably get a day or two off work but I suspect all the good places will be shut as a sign of respect so the nation can grieve

 

[wtfftw]

Why can't the government have some imagination and announce now, a new 2-3 day one-off national holiday in June, to include all sorts of special events and baubles, as a substitute for Christmas (and other missed religious events) and reward for coping with a terrible winter? Give people a reason for doing the right thing and a sense of something to look forward to.

Cos we're gonna get that anyway when Liz Windsor shuffles off.

Hope that happens in 2022 because if she dies of covid it will be unbearable lol.

We are getting an extra day of holiday in June 2022 for some jubilee

Platinum Jubilee: A four day bank holiday will mark the Queen's 70-year reign in 2022

The Queen will have been on the throne for 70 years, a milestone no other monarch has reached before.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[frogwoman]

We are getting an extra day of holiday in June 2022 for some jubilee

Platinum Jubilee: A four day bank holiday will mark the Queen's 70-year reign in 2022

The Queen will have been on the throne for 70 years, a milestone no other monarch has reached before.

www.bbc.co.uk

That's a bit optimistic in the middle of a pandemic that targets the elderly

 

[Orang Utan]

That's a bit optimistic in the middle of a pandemic that targets the elderly

But Brenda has lizard blood that is refreshed weekly by the blood of young innocents

 

[ignatious]

That's a bit optimistic in the middle of a pandemic that targets the elderly

If June 2022 is the middle of the pandemic it’ll be the least of our worries.

 

[frogwoman]

If June 2022 is the middle of the pandemic it’ll be the least of our worries.

The pandemic will be over by then but it's a bit optimistic to plan for the platinum jubilee to be celebrated in 2022 when we still have 2020 and most of 2021 to go

 

[killer b]

The pandemic will be over by then but it's a bit optimistic to plan for the platinum jubilee to be celebrated in 2022 when we still have 2020 and most of 2021 to go

The events guys have a bit of spare time on their hands atm, so they might as well crack on. They can probably switch most of it to funeral stuff if she carks it before then.

 

[quimcunx]

these are mostly healthy older people with decades of life left.

They probably won't be killed by covid. Humans are not great at assessing risk or probabilities. We do lots of things in the hope we wont be one of the unlucky ones. Doesn't mean people aren't making any sort of assessment.

My 86 year old dad climbs ladders onto the roof, uses chainsaws, still drives. Gets indoor visits from my siblings. Goes to the shops. His risk assessments may or not be spot on every time but they do exist. It's a balancing act between living the life you have left as you can/want to and sitting bored out if your skull to beat your auntie's 103 years of age target.

 

[quimcunx]

Because there is no way of knowing what the situation will be in June.

They could deal with that in June.

 

[killer b]

They probably won't be killed by covid. Humans are not great at assessing risk or probabilities. We do lots of things in the hope we wont be one of the unlucky ones. Doesn't mean people aren't making any sort of assessment.

My 86 year old dad climbs ladders onto the roof, uses chainsaws, still drives. Gets indoor visits from my siblings. Goes to the shops. His risk assessments may or not be spot on every time but they do exist. It's a balancing actvetween living the life you have left as you can/want to and sitting bored out if your skull to beat your auntie's 103 years of age target.

I know they won't, and for all their claims that they would welcome death for one last touch of their grandchild's hand, I think their risk assessment is that it's not going to get them. People who are actually vulnerable tend to be much more circumspect - From a personal POV, my girlfriend has a shorter life expectancy than most of them, and we haven't held hands since September. Not sure what we're going to do about Christmas yet, but we actually do have to seriously consider if it might be the last, every year. Ho hum.

 

[The39thStep]

I am looking forward to buying a lot of discounted turkeys

Always remember a big Tesco’s opening in December in Didsbury years ago ( became Richard Madelys shoplifting haunt).Me and a work mate nipped in Xmas eve lunchtime before hitting the pubs to get some Cranberry sauce and some wine to find a near mountain of turkey , beef and pork reductions mostly half price . They obviously hadn’t got either their ordering algorithms or Bank Holiday dates right . So put about £100s worth on a card and filled the boot up. My freezer was only the top bit of the fridge but as it was icy and snowy weather kept it in the boot over Xmas Day and Boxing Day until I found some pals who had some freezer space .