Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[miss direct]

Sorry but how much clearer do you need? If your idea of essential is Christmas decorations your insane.

Well yes, but when places like B&M, Costa and the cake shop are open... people will go there to buy highly essential pork rolls, take away coffees, and scented candles.

 

[The39thStep]

Such figures were wheeled out in the face of demands for strong evidence, but the evidence requested doesn't exist. Nor in my book does it need to exist in order to justify the approach to pubs and restaurants. Weaker evidence combined with no-brainer concepts about respiratory viruses is all that is required....

The risk is there anywhere that people mix. The risk is worse when people are indoors. Household transmission is the worst offender, but since households cannot be closed, the sources of the virus getting into a member of that household in the first place is the area to target. Hospitality is an obvious vector and in some ways its low-hanging fruit, because such locations can actually be closed, whereas much less can be done for other known risks such as working and health and social care, we can't just stop doing those other things.

For me the combination of basic facts about respiratory viral transmission and some data we do actually have showing increased risks for those who work in hospitality is more than sufficient evidence to justify closing hospitality, and I do not think more is required just because such closures are distressing to some people. Plus I strongly suspect that even if strong, direct evidence was presented, those who dont want to come to terms with these facts will then just quibble about the percentage. 'Only 7.5% (my made up number) of cases come from pubs' I can almost hear them crying now. To which my response would be, that's a fair chunk of the pie and justifies the closures. Numbers like that would just indicate to me that other settings need to be closed too, not that pubs had been unfairly targeted. I also look at what most other countries feel compelled to do and the similarities are obvious, hospitality is almost always part of the mix and results are achieved when these things are closed in combination with other measures.

Behind the scenes, this is the sort of things SAGE were saying in September when they were looking at the next required steps:



Thats a mostly fair summary of what it is reasonable to say without stronger evidence being available, and if I were a decision maker I would not hesitate to act on it. I am not interested in putting hospitality and close personal service workers at risk, and their customers, just because some people demand a stronger form of evidence than is available. Not that this would be my only focus, since I am also disgusted by the attempts to do education as normal, and by the falling rate of people working from home as demonstrated by another SAGE quote:



Both SAGE quotes are from a September 21st paper.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925854/S0769_Summary_of_effectiveness_and_harms_of_NPIs.pdf

So aside from closing down education( I assume that means from nurseries to Universities?) , increase home working where possible is there anything else you'd want to reccomend?Is there anything in your opinion that the UK should do about supermarkets, definition of essential services or the possible lifting of restrictions for xmas for example?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sky is reporting the R number is down from 1.0-1.2 to 1.0-1.1, which is nowhere near where we need to be.

 

[The39thStep]

Sky is reporting the R number is down from 1.0-1.2 to 1.0-1.1, which is nowhere near where we need to be.

Manchester Evening News saying the R number has dropped to below 1 in the North West

Coronavirus R number 'has dropped below one' in the north west

The R number is 'around one' for the whole of the UK - but has fallen below one in some parts of the country, according to new research

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

 

[teuchter]

Lots of nice graphs here:

https://covid-assets.joinzoe.com/latest/covid_symptom_study_report.pdf

Tim Spector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King's College London, comments:

“The reason we are now seeing an overall R value of 1.0 in England is because numbers are falling in the North, rising in the Midlands and East but staying flat in the South of England. The continued rise in the Midlands, despite national lockdown is concerning. This suggests an approach focused on improved compliance at regional, not national level over a longer time frame over months is the best way forward. We need to keep cases low enough for us to function as a nation until vaccines arrive without further harmful lockdowns. The good news is that cases in the over 60s, that account for most NHS activity, are remaining low. According to the government hospital data, admissions have only gone up slowly and most parts of the NHS have spare capacity, so as we head into December, it looks like the hospitals won't be overwhelmed with COVID admissions. ”

 

[kalidarkone]

I think I'm with you here. Not sure, as I'm fairly pissed.

The prospect of not being able to see family over xmas is positively

(sorry, christmas in my family is fairly grim historically)

Same which is why I've worked on Xmas day the last few years.

 

[editor]

And a slapdown for Professor Brookes

The number of people dying right now is not the same as in any other year - Full Fact

It was also claimed on talkRADIO that deaths from other respiratory diseases have simply been “replaced“ with Covid-19.

fullfact.org

 

[Cid]

So aside from closing down education( I assume that means from nurseries to Universities?) , increase home working where possible is there anything else you'd want to reccomend?Is there anything in your opinion that the UK should do about supermarkets, definition of essential services or the possible lifting of restrictions for xmas for example?

You do what the available data tells you you should do, combined with some level of balancing depending on social needs. We’ve discussed this at length on this thread and others... you can’t really close supermarkets because the delivery infrastructure could never handle that kind of demand. You could make the bring back some of the distancing policies they had in the first lockdown, though in practice that’s harder with cold weather (outdoor queues). But in the end people move through supermarkets quickly, the contact points are brief and the ventilation is usually adequate afaik. It’s a marginal case.

In contrast with education iirc there were estimates of reductions in r of 0.2 or more for each of higher and lower education. Which is huge. And complete closures may not have been necessary. Now? Dunno. Need to read up again, elbows is probably keeping track better. But broadly the ideas are the same - cut extended contacts in enclosed, poorly ventilated spaces.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Sky is reporting the R number is down from 1.0-1.2 to 1.0-1.1, which is nowhere near where we need to be.

We're seeing the same patterns, more or less, as the first wave. First and hardest hit is also the first and fastest to come down.

Overall R of 1 includes the fact that the Midlands is still getting worse while the NW, Scotland, Wales, and probably NE are getting better.

These patterns all started before the England 'lockdown'. I don't think it's really making a measurable difference, tbh.

 

[elbows]

So aside from closing down education( I assume that means from nurseries to Universities?) , increase home working where possible is there anything else you'd want to reccomend?Is there anything in your opinion that the UK should do about supermarkets, definition of essential services or the possible lifting of restrictions for xmas for example?

I am currently a bit sick of saying what I think about every aspect all the time, so this response is not attempting to be fully comprehensive. The education sector is complex, I would have prioritised it but that would have meant doing things the likes of SAGE mentioned in the summer, ie you close other things well before schools even reopen, in order to create room in the infection incidence picture to give education reopening the best chance of reopening without instantly magnifying the problem. I wouldn't have tried to stop so many people working from home. I would probably have made it clear during the relaxation phase that pubs and restaurants were likely only reopening on a temporary basis. I would incentivise people to do the right thing in terms of work and self isolation and quarantine by making it financially viable for even the poorest workers. I would not have been keen about allowing foreign travel during the summer, and I would not have done eat out to help out. Test & trace was not a complete solution in itself but it should have been done a lot better. Hospital and care home routine testing, very much including for staff, should have been a huge priority that got sorted out properly in the summer, instead of the situation where they left it to come in too late and in a patchy way. The daily press conferences should not have been paused in summer, the mood music in that period was all wrong.

Supermarkets have always bothered me, especially at pre-lockdown moments where various frenzies ensued, but also at other times. I can understand why authorities shy away from closing essential retail like that, its a big risk that can cause much harm unless a really robust home delivery network that doesn't miss anyone vulnerable is put in place on a scale far beyond the routine delivery slots supermarkets are setup to provide. So I dont know exactly what I would have done, beyond the obvious of stating that 'covid secure' workplace guidelines are a load of shit.

As for Christmas, I have the luxury of being able to wait longer before forming my own opinion on that than the authorities have. They probably have to make some decisions next week, and the data may be showing more interesting signs by then, but it will still be too soon for me to know what the incidence levels of virus int he community will be at Christmas. If they are not low by the time Christmas comes then it is very hard for me to advocate even a short relaxation. And the current measures look like they are enough to do something, but nowhere close to being enough to reduce incidence levels to anything I would call low. I therefore suspect that the only circumstance where I could get behind a temporary relaxation is if that comes a after a period where we increase restrictions. But as others have pointed out on this thread, there is the angle where governments suspect many people will ignore some of the rules over Christmas anyway, which somewhat changes the equation about what effect putting the official seal of approval on such relaxations will actually have.

 

[elbows]

We're seeing the same patterns, more or less, as the first wave. First and hardest hit is also the first and fastest to come down.

Overall R of 1 includes the fact that the Midlands is still getting worse while the NW, Scotland, Wales, and probably NE are getting better.

These patterns all started before the England 'lockdown'. I don't think it's really making a measurable difference, tbh.

I dont remember there being many signs that you thought the first lockdown was responsible for what actually happened to levels of infection either though.

For me it is still slightly too early to judge but we are now sort of into that zone, I'm watching hospital data very carefully. All the patterns so far to me look like partially muted epidemic growth with some of the brakes being on being visible via the trajectory. But its not just the bad news that is happening in slow motion compared to the first wave, the good news might be a bit limp and thus harder to spot too. I dunno, there are some signs of certain things peaking, but as you say those could so far mostly be attributed to other measures that applied to certain regions for a while before the national measures came in. I'm sure I will indulge in another flurry of graphs on several occasions in the days ahead.

 

[elbows]

I don't know what to say about the deaths by date of death for England at the moment either. At the moment it looks like a plateau with a single days peak that was much higher, but part of me keeps expecting to see a different picture in the next days worth of data, or wondering whether there may have been some sort of additional reporting lag or data fuckup. I will be happy if it is a real plateau, but then I won't be happy until I see it coming down as thats not a daily rate we want to be stuck with for a long time.

I'll post a graph when todays data has been added to the picture, and will tell a different story if thats what the data shows in contrast to the above.

 

[8115]

Hancock on the tv. Free flu vaccination for all over 50s this year.

 

[quimcunx]

Hancock on the tv. Free flu vaccination for all over 50s this year.

I already paid for one! Lots will have.

E2a

!This claim is disputed and withdrawn in later posts.

 

[Brainaddict]

I already paid for one! Lots will have.

Where the hell did you get one? I've been unable to pay for one in London - all stock reserved for NHS allocation.

 

[andysays]

Where the hell did you get one? I've been unable to pay for one in London - all stock reserved for NHS allocation.

I also found it impossible to source any when I tried to find some in late October.

This latest batch was announced overnight (I think) and was definitely on BBC website early this morning, because I linked to it on another thread.

I would imagine that supplies and vaccination slots at GPs will get booked up pretty quick...

 

[quimcunx]

Where the hell did you get one? I've been unable to pay for one in London - all stock reserved for NHS allocation.

My local pharmacy. However just now it occurs to me that he waved me away when I asked how much so it was free. They would know my dob but this was a month or more ago so dunno about this being news or just a reminder from Hancock.

 

[Brainaddict]

My local pharmacy. However just now it occurs to me that he waved me away when I asked how much so it was free. They would know my dob but this was a month or more ago so dunno about this being news or just a reminder from Hancock.

Maybe you just got a sympathetic pharmacist. I've been wanting to get one because I still have lung function issues from long covid but it's not possible because NHS bureaucracy hasn't yet decided that covid damage is something that might require people to have extra protection. I've been rolling my eyes hard about this. I know bureaucracies usually act slowly but maybe just in these very particular circumstances they could be a bit quicker on their feet. But no

 

[Numbers]

JVT with his “over” on the presser.

 

[Mation]

Stop with the flying analogies. Over.

 

[Mation]

Not entirely sure that Hancock meant to reveal that we don't know how effective the vaccine will be at bringing down R.

 

[Supine]

JVT with his “over” on the presser.

Loved that

I'm going to use it in meetings now lol

 

[StoneRoad]

I got a flu jab, but back in September, when my GPs were pushing their "flu clinic" ... and as everybody else in my household are over 65 ...
(I had one for the past several years because I was carer for my very elderly & frail father).

So I'm hoping for the same with the CovidJab

 

[cupid_stunt]

Hancock on the tv. Free flu vaccination for all over 50s this year.

This was announced about 3 months ago, but first to get the jab were those that normally get it, they have been done now, so now onto the under 65's.

Basically they are doubling the jabs this from 15m to 30m.

 

[ignatious]

Not entirely sure that Hancock meant to reveal that we don't know how effective the vaccine will be at bringing down R.

As I understand it, it isn’t known if any of the vaccines currently undergoing trials will affect the R value, as it isn’t known if they prevent infection and spread (claims, thus far, are limited to their success in preventing illness).

 

[MickiQ]

I already paid for one! Lots will have.

E2a

!This claim is disputed and withdrawn in later posts.

I've paid for mine, cost me £12 on 14th October and I'm over 60 never mind 50 so fuck you Hancock

 

[8115]

As I understand it, it isn’t known if any of the vaccines currently undergoing trials will affect the R value, as it isn’t known if they prevent infection and spread (claims, thus far, are limited to their success in preventing illness).

This goes against everything (albeit limited) I know about illness.

 

[frogwoman]

I've already had mine 15 quid at the chemist's. Supposedly a lot of people my mum knows have had bad reactions to it so she hasn't had hers yet.

 

[elbows]

I have resorted to a different version of my colour-coding in order to talk myself out of a false sense of plateaus in the daily death data when viewed by date of death.

Previously I was wheeling these graphs out with different colours for each individual days reporting. The following ones instead use a single colour for an entire 7 days worth of results, and a different colour for all results before that 7 day period.

The first graph is one from late October/early November when I last attempted this particular exercise, for reference/comparison. The second one is using the latest available daily data from the UK dashboard. If I force myself not to get too distracted by the high number for 9th November, the pattern of how a weeks worth of data ads to the picture shows some similarities, but also implies a reduced rate of increase more recently. This also matches what's been seen in terms of the rate of increase in deaths when measured by date of reporting not date of death. However it is still an awkward moment to make strong claims, since if there is some additional backlog in the system it could yet be that the trend ends up continuing at a more alarming pace that is more in tune with a continued increase beyond the high number seen for November 9th, at the trajectory that the November 9th number implies, rather than the much more appealing trajectory that other recent dates currently point towards. Either way the numbers are way too high for me to be happy, but I feel compelled to try to describe the picture anyway, even when as usual I feel like I need to wait for another weeks data to tell the story. But given the reasonably large numbers that were still being added to periods such as 6th-8th November in the data published from the 14th to 20th, I'm not too optimistic about a tidy plateau emerging before our eyes, but I can always hold out hope, it might. Maybe the best I dare hope for right not is a slowing in the increase speed, and I hope I am seeing that rather than it just being number of deaths affected by reporting lag growing as total numbers increase.

I will probably bore on about some hospital data in a bit and then give it a rest till sometime next week.

 

[8115]

When you get ill the virus starts replicating itself inside your body. This is how you get ill and this is how you become infectious. Your immune system is primed by the vaccine to recognise the virus so it can attack it and stop it replicating. How would you therefore be infectious but not ill?