Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[cupid_stunt]

I always thought the £10k fines wouldn't work, and they are not.

Police chiefs have suspended the on-the-spot £10,000 Covid fines amid fears of challenges over the lack of means testing.

The National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) said forces would no longer be handing out £10,000 fixed notice penalties because of concerns over “inequalities” as those choosing to go to court could pay less.

Instead, they will be issued as summons requiring those fined to go before magistrates where they will be means tested, which could result in them forking out less than the £10,000 or given more time to pay the sums after means-testing.

The move emerged as David Jamieson, the police and crime commissioner in the West Midlands, disclosed that his force as of last week had stopped issuing the £10,000 fixed penalty notices and was sending people straight to court instead.

The NPCC is looking to rewrite its guidance to officers so that there could be a compromise where anyone issued with an on the spot fine would be told that they can go to court to have their ability to pay means-tested.

In the interim, however, it is proposing no-one will be issued with a £10,000 fixed notice penalty but will instead be summonsed direct to go to court.

The £10,000 fines cover failure to self-isolate or quarantine and have been issued to organisers of raves, parties and events which breach the rules on gatherings.

Eleven areas of Scotland to move to Tier 4 restrictions, Nicola Sturgeon says

Nicola Sturgeon has announced that 11 council areas, including Glasgow, will go into her highest tier of restrictions from Friday, the equivalent of almost full lockdown apart from schools staying open.

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[two sheds]

And it's not really about the death rates, it's about NHS capacity. I think people understand that it's not an unbearable tragedy in itself if a person over 80 dies (but that they should have to do so alone and in distress is another matter) - it's that we don't want to break the NHS..

Can be a bit of an unbearable tragedy if she's your nan and would have lived for another ten years or so. But yes NHS loading and stress on doctors and nurses is key. Twat is however saying there's only 14,000 coronavirus patients so loads of spare beds in NHS, with others piping up that their cousin works in NHS and they've go no patients there at all.

 

[teuchter]

It's about double the deaths of a very bad flu year (30,000) but still counting.

The relevant comparison is not with the number who've died of Covid but the number who would have died without disruptive restrictions on society - because that's what the deniers are advocating.

 

[StoneRoad]

Can be a bit of an unbearable tragedy if she's your nan and would have lived for another ten years or so. But yes NHS loading and stress on doctors and nurses is key. Twat is however saying there's only 14,000 coronavirus patients so loads of spare beds in NHS, with others piping up that their cousin works in NHS and they've go no patients there at all.

my bold ...
my reply. That's Bolloocks !
That might be because that particular hospital is deliberately being kept clear of Covid. Certainly, during the first wave, that was the case in the large conurbation near me. Out of the three or four big hospitals, one at least was kept clear ... ( + that's depending on how you define the area, as one is the general surgical hospital for the surrounding area)

 

[two sheds]

I know I said that I'd seen statements from people in the NHS saying they're overwhelmed and exhausted from the last months work (taken from posts on here), and that was the response.

 

[StoneRoad]

further info on the cases moved by PHE to better reflect location ...

Covid: Thousands of cases relocated in England in data change - BBC News


Principally, this has been re-allocating cases in the students population away from their home address
[not all students will have had the opportunity to register with a GP for their term time address]

 

[frogwoman]

It's about double the deaths of a very bad flu year (30,000) but still counting.

And don't forget we've been in lockdown for months.

 

[frogwoman]

(rather than 60,000 and of course that's exaggerated because they include people who are labelled coronavirus even if they're run down by a bus) .

Is there any evidence that this has actually happened? How many hundreds of bus accidents are taking place every day lmao, you'd think that they'd have done something about it by now. Maybe some sort of lockdown?

 

[two sheds]

I know - the count was changed from died within 60 days to died within 28 days in August as I recall anyway and a graph elbows (again as I recall) pointed to showed there was bugger all difference between the two figures). Doesn't stop them though

And the idea that a doctor is going to attend to someone who's died because they've been knocked down by a bus and see they've been knocked down by a bus but write 'coronavirus' on the death certificate is fucking loon

 

[sheothebudworths]

See it's already been explained but was just coming to report back on that weird case bump. From the dashboard -

Cases are allocated to the person's area of residence. From 16 November 2020, PHE has updated the way it records the location of people who test positive or negative for COVID-19. It now prioritises addresses given at the point of testing over the details registered on a patient’s NHS Summary Care Record. This better reflects the distribution of cases and testing. However, it may give rise to differences in previously reported numbers of cases and rates in some areas. The change has been retrospectively applied to tests carried out from 1 September 2020, and data in the dashboard was updated to reflect this change on 16 November 2020. Due to reallocation of cases in this way, the number of cases reported by local authority may be artificially high or low on 16 November 2020.

- and yes, student populations would defo account for a great majority of those, so uni areas all having increases (and equivalent reductions in their home areas, which will obvs be much less dramatic).

This is a bit of the Brighton and Hove updated figures (originally reported figures on the left, yesterday's updated figures on the right) -

07/10/2020​	34​	35​
08/10/2020​	43​	46​
09/10/2020​	44​	58​
10/10/2020​	31​	36​
11/10/2020​	19​	22​
12/10/2020​	39​	44​
13/10/2020​	46​	58​
14/10/2020​	44​	54​
15/10/2020​	30​	30​
16/10/2020​	36​	49​
17/10/2020​	40​	39​
18/10/2020​	37​	48​
19/10/2020​	68​	83​
20/10/2020​	85​	96​
21/10/2020​	76​	94​
22/10/2020​	72​	79​
23/10/2020​	67​	80​
24/10/2020​	54​	59​
25/10/2020​	48​	53​
26/10/2020​	95​	96​
27/10/2020​	72​	77​
28/10/2020​	55​	62​
29/10/2020​	59​	66​
30/10/2020​	35​	37​
31/10/2020​	40​	38​
01/11/2020​	27​	29​
02/11/2020​	68​	67​
03/11/2020​	80​	77​
04/11/2020​	64​	57​
05/11/2020​	51​	51​
06/11/2020​	60​	56​
07/11/2020​	67​	70​
08/11/2020​	62​	73​
09/11/2020​	98​	100​
10/11/2020​	76​	78​
11/11/2020​	88​	85​
12/11/2020​	45​	54​
13/11/2020​	54​	57​
14/11/2020​	39​	36​
15/11/2020​	2​	2​

 

[cupid_stunt]

Just quote this back to them, as it's actually more sensible than that load of bollocks.

Somewhere on this globe, every ten seconds, there is a woman giving birth to a child.

She must be found and stopped.

 

[frogwoman]

I know - the count was changed from died within 60 days to died within 28 days in August as I recall anyway and a graph elbows (again as I recall) pointed to showed there was bugger all difference between the two figures). Doesn't stop them though

And the idea that a doctor is going to attend to someone who's died because they've been knocked down by a bus and see they've been knocked down by a bus but write 'coronavirus' on the death certificate is fucking loon

'Died of covid not with covid'

 

[elbows]

I know - the count was changed from died within 60 days to died within 28 days in August as I recall anyway and a graph elbows (again as I recall) pointed to showed there was bugger all difference between the two figures). Doesn't stop them though

There was a difference when they wanted, during the summer, which added up to thousands over time. But as expected the difference is more negligible during this phase of the second wave.



from https://assets.publishing.service.g...-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W46.pdf

 

[two sheds]

ta, that was the one

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Just quote this back to them, as it's actually more sensible than that load of bollocks.

the earth is flat you globalist

 

[DaveCinzano]

Motherboard/Vice suggests it was the work of “an anonymous white supremacist group called the Hundred-Handers, which was recently active in the UK”.

Recently had an advisory at work from Counter Terrorism Policing (usual quality, caveats apply, etc) mentioning them:

 

[kalidarkone]

I checked Bristol earlier and fear we might end up as L2 or L3 if restrictions are lifted on 2nd Dec. Was 429 /100K. A big increase on the last time I looked a couple of weeks ago.

Edited. Is 429.

Whatever we end up as officially....I predict the youth in the city partying MASSIVELY for nye.

 

[kalidarkone]

Can be a bit of an unbearable tragedy if she's your nan and would have lived for another ten years or so. But yes NHS loading and stress on doctors and nurses is key. Twat is however saying there's only 14,000 coronavirus patients so loads of spare beds in NHS, with others piping up that their cousin works in NHS and they've go no patients there at all.

Omg .....well tell your mate that for the last four weeks in my hospital lots of surgery has had to be cancelled (including) really big operations because 1) There are not enough beds in ITU where very poorly people go post op. 2) There have not been enough beds and aside from emergency surgery we have mostly been only able to accommodate day case surgery.

My post op recovery department turns into a short stay ward...for people who need a next day review, before discharge or live on their own and have no one to care for them at home. Normally we 8 at the most....last night it was 18. This poses massive problems with the shortage of staff (so many of sick right now) and completely impacts the quality of care given.

I know you know this sheds.....

 

[elbows]

This doesn't come as any surprise to me, does it to anyone else on here?

In addition to the lack of surprise with that one (which was stricter tier measures once the national thing ends on December 2nd) here is another thoroughly unsurprising possibility they are considering:

Covid-19: Family Christmas get-togethers being considered

Rules could be relaxed for a few days, with people urged to travel by car and not hold big gatherings.

www.bbc.co.uk

BBC health correspondent Nick Triggle said any rule change would be for a limited time, maybe just a few days.

Cabinet minister Alok Sharma said it was too early for "conclusions" but he wanted to see his family for Christmas.

Our correspondent said any final decisions would not be made for a few weeks while health chiefs wait to see whether cases have started to come down during the lockdown in England.

But, he said, the advice was likely to urge families not to hold big gatherings and to travel by car, rather than public transport.

It is likely I will knock out a few graphs later showing where we are at with he hospital situation in England. I will try to cover Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland in that regard at some point soon too. Todays data will not offer us conclusions about the future trajectory and I cannot say when that moment will be reached, but I certainly hope to be able to say some things with more confidence at some point in the next 10 days.

 

[elbows]

Daily hospital admissions/diagnoses situation in England by region. Hopefully some things hinted at by this graph continue, get even better, while others reverse. Still a bit early for me to attach bold claims to recent trends seen in any of the region, but clearly its now been quite some time since the rate in the North West went up in a sustained way, and it is fluctuating around slightly below its last peak.

Main graph is with values smoothed out using 7 day rolling averages, but I've also put the raw daily version in spoilers.

Spoiler

Graphs made using data from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

 

[FridgeMagnet]

In addition to the lack of surprise with that one (which was stricter tier measures once the national thing ends on December 2nd) here is another thoroughly unsurprising possibility they are considering:

Covid-19: Family Christmas get-togethers being considered

Rules could be relaxed for a few days, with people urged to travel by car and not hold big gatherings.

www.bbc.co.uk

It is likely I will knock out a few graphs later showing where we are at with he hospital situation in England. I will try to cover Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland in that regard at some point soon too. Todays data will not offer us conclusions about the future trajectory and I cannot say when that moment will be reached, but I certainly hope to be able to say some things with more confidence at some point in the next 10 days.

They will 100% do a "Tories save Christmas" thing - I called that a while ago and there's no way they'll resist it. It's just a question of whether it's simply a bad idea or a really fucking terrible no-no-no idea.

 

[StoneRoad]

I'm predicting that it'll be a free-for-all shindig from mid-December to maybe first week in January.
At that point the case rate will explode upwards, because no-one was taking precautions because "christmas" & booze / parties ...
Sure as the sun rises in the east, hospital admissions will do the same a couple or three weeks later and deaths after another couple of weeks.

Vaccinations will be too late to prevent this ... mainly because they'll not have had time to get far enough down the priority lists.

I hope I'm wrong, and that enough vaccinations do happen to make a difference.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

In China people are clubbing and having pool parties. They were in July.

 

[Badgers]

Have had older friends and family switch from hating/resenting lockdown to opting for no family over Christmas due to deaths rising and seeing selfish peoples actions (not mutually exclusive). Especially as there are a lot of relatives who are key workers and/or have kids.

Equally lots of people I know are saying 'it will be okay just the 4/5/6 of us without thinking of how many contacts people and/or their kids bring into their homes.

Some people want or feel they need Christmas but it is going to cause (another) a fucking mess.

 

[Badgers]

In China people are clubbing and having pool parties. They were in July.

They had strict isolation, quarantine and lockdown rules at airports and internally. They might well be hiding numbers and did fuck up at first but the few people I know there are calm and confident.

 

[Badgers]

They will 100% do a "Tories save Christmas" thing - I called that a while ago and there's no way they'll resist it. It's just a question of whether it's simply a bad idea or a really fucking terrible no-no-no idea.

December
You plebs can have a few days off to enjoy Christmas as a Tory Treat #voteus.

January
The public took the piss and let us all down. Especially the poor and the foreigners. More lockdown and misery for you all. Don't get me started on 'adequate food' because you don't deserve it plebs.

 

[prunus]

There’s an element of the prisoners dilemma on a societal scale in this - if we all hang together (and all forgo contact at Christmas) we all benefit by an earlier overall release from restrictions - however, individuals can cheat the system - and have the benefit of a family Christmas while still benefitting from others’ forbearance - provided not too many too; however if too many do, then everyone will get punished by no early release, and the only people who do get a benefit are the people who broke the rules and had a family Christmas. So what do you do...?

 

[Badgers]

prisoners dilemma

So what do you do...?

Smear shit all over the walls and throw handfuls of semen at the guards?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Patients in UK hospitals now stand at 16,271, not that far behind the peak back in April when it was around 19.5k.

 

[prunus]

Smear shit all over the walls and throw handfuls of semen at the guards?

I didn’t know you’d been to one of our family Christmases?