Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
Aye, I sneeze loads after drinking
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
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weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
My middle son, who may also have Asperger's, is not overly upset by this news either.
andysays
Love and solidarity
Sneezing isn't one of the top three symptoms of Covid, but if I was sharing a house with someone who invited their boyfriend over ATM, and said boyfriend wandered around my home sneezing while not wearing a mask, I'd be pretty pissed off.
What do your other flatmates think about this, Mation ? Is there any way you can bring some collective pressure to bear?
What do your other flatmates think about this, Mation ? Is there any way you can bring some collective pressure to bear?
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Thanks so much for doing these graphs - they are a million times more useful than people just posting OMG x thousand new cases today.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I would probably do something similar to Scotland.
Rates vary a lot over the country but there is no region of it that I would be hugely comfortable to describe as having very low infection rates, even though that is true in some ways.
Put it this way, even the number of people in hospital in the South West has gone from 12 to 68 in the last month. In the South East its more like having gone from 50 to 129. In the East of England its gone from 27 to 125. And those are the places considered to be doing quite well, and I dont think thats good enough. They may not be dramatic enough rises for some people, but then again some of those people would also not be convinced by London going from 92 to 336, the Midlands from 95 to 484, the North West from 164 to 1030 or the North East and Yorkshire from 97 to 772.
So personally I would impose some new restrictions in all parts of England, and go further in the worst affected places.
I couldnt say how long I would do this for unless I had access to the same modelling output that the government has. But the timescale Scotland are going with may be quite reasonable depending on exact objectives (ie how far they want to push transmission down at this stage).
As for exactly when to do it, again thats hard for me without seeing the models, and also because I would have taken a more cautious approach to the easing of restrictions in the first place, and would likely have reimposed some in the weeks before education reopened. So by my personal preference things are already late. If I knew exactly what they were aiming for in terms of trigger points (eg number of admissions per day or ICU occupancy levels) and what they consider to be the maximum tolerable level of infection, hospitalisation and death, it would be easier for me to predict their choice of timing.
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
Yep thanks for the graphs, but people posting OMG x thousand new cases is genuine too
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'd probably attempt it if I had actually collected the 'cases per date of specimen' data every single day from the dashboard, but I havent, so I cannot complete that mission. If the dashboard API makes this possible or some other source has collected the data in this way and I stumble upon it or someone points it out to me then I will consider attempting it.
In Scotland, it's maybe not a national lockdown but it is a majority of the population lockdown.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The other reason I would think it wise to press the brakes to some degree across the whole country is the situation with testing capacity.
The levels of positivity seen in some areas is too high and is one indication that there is nowhere near enough testing taking place.
I recommend the following for one particular angle on that sort of thing, since part of it compares what level of positivity NYC uses to determine school closures (3%) with WHO May recommendations for considering reopening of stuff (5%) with Liverpools rate according to the week 40 PHE report (almost 15%).
The levels of positivity seen in some areas is too high and is one indication that there is nowhere near enough testing taking place.
I recommend the following for one particular angle on that sort of thing, since part of it compares what level of positivity NYC uses to determine school closures (3%) with WHO May recommendations for considering reopening of stuff (5%) with Liverpools rate according to the week 40 PHE report (almost 15%).
We Are Still Not Doing Enough Testing: A Case Study of New York and Liverpool Schools - Dr Duncan Robertson
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that “New York City on Wednesday will close public schools and nonessential businesses in parts of Brooklyn and Queens that have registered a week-long spike in coronavirus cases” Let’s look at New York and then compare to a UK city, Liverpool. Cases are high...
www.duncanrobertson.com
Thora
Differently Ethical
Runny or congested nose is quite a common symptom, I'm not sure about sneezing. Nasal congestion was one of Trump's symptoms.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm still annoyed with myself that I didnt do a lot of extra work to work around weekend reporting issues with total UK number. My failure to do that meant I couldnt just carry on my original colour-coded stuff for every day since last Friday fairly. Never mind, the graphs tend to hurt my brain when too many different colours are present anyway, but it did reduce the comparative value my graph could offer.
By the way I originally performed the same exercise months ago but with the daily reported deaths figure and how that mapped to deaths by actual date of death. But that was only using NHS hospital deaths figure which was a rather incomplete measure, and I didnt do it for long, just long enough to illustrate the point about what sort of lag and spread the daily announced number consisted of.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Indeed.
The BBC was just reporting the UK average infection rate is at around 50 per 100,000, with some areas in the north running at more than ten times that number, here we are on about 15.
There's a massive different between 15 & 500+, hence I don't think we are likely to have a national lockdown anytime soon, I agree with elbows that it should be different in various area, I like the idea of a traffic light system, 3 different levels of restrictions depending on infection rates, nice and simple compared to the mishmash we have ATM.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Yeah I struggle to get why we haven't had such a clear 'traffic light' system from early on.
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
Don't be silly
You've done huge amounts of work on this, also huge amounts of extra work, and you'll recall how stressed you were getting at various points with obsessively detailing what was going on.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah a system like that is required to simplify the public health comms and general sense of muddle. My fear at the moment is how much it will be compromised by political arguments over the measures it includes, which I believe is one of the things going on behind the scenes at the moment. Or whether such disagreements will mess with the timescale for either publishing the detail of the new system or acting upon it.
I might have more thoughts on how bad or good the low numbers seen in some places really are later, I'm still trying to establish what my own thoughts on that really are and whether I can explain myself properly.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Don't be silly
You've done huge amounts of work on this, also huge amounts of extra work, and you'll recall how stressed you were getting at various points with obsessively detailing what was going on.
I wasnt that stressed really, only stressed enough to let off steam about it here and attempt to cut down, with a fair bit of success, how much time I spent on pandemic matters over the summer.
In some key ways I'm one of the lucky ones in this pandemic because the timing of some personal circumstances has enabled me to opt out of 99% of the risk in this pandemic without being eaten alive by financial insecurity. Which is not something I could have said if this pandemic had happened before 2018 and that I likely wont be able to say if there are similar circumstances to endure some years down the line. But for once in my life my accidental timing didnt end up looking like one of those really bad jokes life throws at us.
In my area of London, it's 92. I'm not sure if they could feasibly have different lockdowns in different boroughs here really even if the infection rates were very different in different areas. I mean, many people live in one borough, work in another, maybe cross another one or two on the way. One neighbouring borough is a 15 min walk from my flat, another two are a bit further away but still very walkable. I suspect many people -- me included -- aren't completely clear where all the borders lie.
Mation
real life adventure worth more than pieces of gold
I know. It's just an indication of potentially generic virus-spreading stuff that's not part of some of my housemates' concerns. (E.g. getting a non-c19 virus with some overlapping c-19 symptoms might mean people having to self-isolate and try to book a flight to somewhere they can get tested at the airport, etc)
Possibly. But likely with internal ill will. Much easier to do if it's an external requirement.
In any case, now isn't the time to be doing this individual situation by individual situation, bar proper idiosyncratic exceptions.
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andysays
Love and solidarity
I don't entirely understand that, but good luck with it anyway
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I agree, in London it would be very hard to lock-down at borough level, it would probably need to be London wide.
Bit different here in West Sussex, overall the county is at around 27 infection per 100,000, but it's a lot higher in the borough & district council areas north of the South Downs National Park, because they are part of the main London commuter belt, whereas we are far better off on the West Sussex coastal strip. Over in Brighton & Hove city, their infection rate rests between the different in the north & south of WS, much like they do with numbers commuting in & out of London.
I would hate to be the person that draws the lines at region/city/county or borough/district councils levels.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Because we're ruled by fuckwits?
Mation
real life adventure worth more than pieces of gold
People infected with a virus, such as a cold, can spread it to other people. Even if it's just a cold, some of the symptoms might overlap with covid 19, enough that, to be on the safe side, it would be sensible to self-isolate. (Housemate sneezes and has stuffy nose. I catch what they've got but mostly get the stuffy nose, not the sneezes so much. I don't know if it's their cold or covid 19 caught elsewhere. I have to self-isolate/get tested.)
Easier to say to housemates 'no, this isn't allowed, you can't do that here', if it's mandated rather than being seen as the 'fussily over-worrying individual housemate'.
elbows
Well-Known Member
An interesting example of the local authorities getting ahead of centralised government announcements.
Coronavirus: Nottinghamshire residents told not to mix indoors
Authorities say they are acting ahead of an expected government tightening of rules.
www.bbc.co.uk
Feels like lockdown (part or full or something vague) is inevitable doesn't it? It would have been nice to have it properly at the start with furlough (for some 
anyway) but that window is gone.
I do think lockdown is the answer. It is going to hurt deeply for people and businesses, but the alternative is that we keep this loop going for a year or more
On a selfish note I have a CT in a couple of weeks, dental work to be completed, oncology appointment, MummyBadgers moving house (after six months delay) and have to find a fucking job in the next month. Appreciate I am not alone with such challenges but feels like a kick in tne teeth when most of us have obeyed the rules while others have been off on holidays and having a merry old time.
anyway) but that window is gone.I do think lockdown is the answer. It is going to hurt deeply for people and businesses, but the alternative is that we keep this loop going for a year or more
On a selfish note I have a CT in a couple of weeks, dental work to be completed, oncology appointment, MummyBadgers moving house (after six months delay) and have to find a fucking job in the next month. Appreciate I am not alone with such challenges but feels like a kick in tne teeth when most of us have obeyed the rules while others have been off on holidays and having a merry old time.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I do think lockdown is the answer. It is going to hurt deeply for people and businesses, but the alternative is that we keep this loop going for a year or more
The sort of lockdown we saw the first time is I expect reserved for if the hospital data shows an overload on the near horizon.
Im not sure I will want to use the term lockdown for the other stuff that is proposed for situations less drastic, not when people are still asked to go to work etc.
I unfortunately dont really understand your point about the loop though because lockdowns full or partial are very much part of the loop you describe, they dont bring about a permanent conclusion to the pandemic on their own.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The story evolves predictably:
Covid-19: New restrictions for parts of England likely next week
Closing pubs and restaurants and banning overnight stays in the worst-affected areas are being discussed.
www.bbc.co.uk
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