Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[mr steev]

I was wondering why those local lockdowns weren't lowering cases, but I looked up the rules and saw that's because they're hardly lockdowns at all and basically everything's open but maybe for not quite as long and it's like 'No, really, do wear a mask please'. Doesn't seem much point to that!

The main thing is that you are not supposed to visit anyone outside of your household or allow anyone into your home or garden.

 

[flypanam]

Not hearing anything in Education regarding a looming lockdown...yet.

My brother lectures at the IoE, he's of the opinion that half term will be two week circuit breaker kind of lockdown, and he's preparing he's preparing his student teachers for it. As for higher ed, i suspect we'll remain open otherwise what will the students do? Where could they go?

 

[emanymton]

The main thing is that you are not supposed to visit anyone outside of your household or allow anyone into your home or garden.

Which is a rule commonly ignored. This is why I don't think a harder lock down on pubs will be that effective.

 

[TopCat]

Very sorry to hear of your loss, my dad passed at the beginning of April - we couldn't cremate him for six weeks.

At the service at Croydon crem we had to basically sit on individual rows (which was awful for my mum) wear the masks etc.

The whole thing felt very clinical and was over in a flash, btw no flowers were allowed either - don't know if the rules have changed since then.

Still not been able to have a get together with all the family - so the whole situation feels unresolved.

I really feel for you. That is so sad.

 

[TopCat]

while others have been off on holidays and having a merry old time.

Sorry mate.

 

[LDC]

It's clear in public health terms, but without financial support it's the end for countless pubs, restaurants and the rest of it. They'll be boarded up and all their staff on the dole. Unless the government is prepared to underwrite the cost of temporarily shutting them down again - or at least restricting their activities to the point it could well bankrupt them - I can't blame them for pressing for restrictions to be lifted.

Sunak is apparently making noises about local support having been against it to start with I think. Yeah, I did say financial support needs to be in place, but even so the amount of people from the 'hospitality industry' (whatever the fuck that is) making noises saying the evidence doesn't support it as a clear attempt to stop their businesses being closed is highly irresponsible I think, as are the media giving time to some random pub landlord's opinion as a public health expert.

Also the government are 'thinking' about restrictions from Monday. FFS, just do it now you bunch of slow moving faffing pricks.

 

[frogwoman]

Exclusive: Anti-Maskers Are Scamming Pubs with a Fake NHS Tracking App

The app, named "Covid 1984", allows users to enter pubs and restaurants without scanning a QR code or providing contact information.

www.vice.com

Dickheads

 

[killer b]

the amount of people from the 'hospitality industry' (whatever the fuck that is) making noises saying the evidence doesn't support it as a clear attempt to stop their businesses being closed is highly irresponsible

The people I know in the hospitality industry making those noises actually believe it tbf.

 

[mr steev]

Which is a rule commonly ignored. This is why I don't think a harder lock down on pubs will be that effective.

It's difficult to tell tbh. Most people I know are abiding by it.
It means that I'm not allowed to have a couple of friends round for a beer and a socially distanced fire in my garden, so perversley, after not going to the pub for months, we have now started to arrange weekly pub visits so we can see each other

 

[elbows]

Whenever I see a story like this one, I think back to the absolute bullshit the WHO team that went to China told us about low levels of asymptomatic cases there.

Covid: more than 80% of positive UK cases in study had no core symptoms

ONS survey said 86.1% of people between April and June had none of the virus’ main symptoms

www.theguardian.com

This area these days involved a lot of the "we've learnt a lot, now with the benefit of hindsight...." sentiment which does not do the story justice since actually the reasonable assumption should always have been that asymptomatic cases and spread were likely to be quite relevant to this pandemic.

 

[elbows]

Although if I want to go out of my way to be fair, I am conflating presymptomatic (eventually develops symptoms) and asymptomatic. But when it comes to the practical implications of whether an infectious person is displaying symptoms at the time, there isnt much difference anyway.

 

[Teaboy]

The people I know in the hospitality industry making those noises actually believe it tbf.

Yup. I was speaking with a friend who is an old school style landlady. I've never seen her more depressed as they had nothing to look forward to. No big rugby events, no parties, no big bookings. Nothing but the sunday lunch market (even that has suffered) and George nursing his pint of mild till 10pm.

I think a lot of pubs were going under this winter anyway but if they are forced to close they may as well just hand the keys back now.

This is going to be a horrible winter. I feel so sorry for everyone who works in an industry which has been hammered by this whether it be travel, live entertainment, the arts etc. Any of us who has a job which has been largely protected from the worst or indeed have even benefitted should be counting their lucky stars. I also think those that are demanding full lockdown immediately just need to check themselves on this. I'm not saying it's not needed (I don't know) but yeah, just a check.

 

[StoneRoad]

We are covered by one of the zones of increased local restrictions, but I'm not seeing it make much difference to behaviour - the lack of local cases being the factor at play in the decision-making.

However, we are within 40 miles / half an hour's drive of "Tyneside" and I will not go anywhere near that area under any pretext with the current circumstances.

Effectively, the risk assessments mean my household has gone back to the near hibernation / isolation we practised in the first wave - only one person is going shopping or making trips off the property. Unfortunately, our immediate neighbour works in "hospitality" although not actually customer facing, so any conversations are at very long range, and they are very worried about transmissions. That particular group of industries needs proper, additional and long term support.

The present complication is that my bezza is in hospital with a dodgy gall-badder. We can't visit but can drop off supplies at the ward door and they've given up on the can't use your own phone bollacks so we can chat. Still don't know what is planned ...
BTW, our isolation policy appears to be working - bezza's test when admitted was -ve.

I still think having hospitality and education both open is the problem - one or the other, not both - especially as the under 35s seem to be the majority of current cases. I want to say "I TOLD YOU SO" but the full tragedy of increased deaths is only just beginning,

I want the gov't to re-impose a near full lockdown in the areas with high case rates, and enforce the rules properly. That includes isolation / quarantine when needed, eg coming back after travelling abroad or from an area with high case rates r when "NHS T&T" say so.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Interesting new report just published by the ONS.

• Of all death occurrences between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with 13,619 deaths due to pneumonia and 394 deaths due to influenza.
• The proportion of deaths occurring in care homes due to COVID-19 was almost double the proportion of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia (30.0% and 15.2% respectively).
• In comparison with the deaths due to influenza and pneumonia occurring in the year to 31 August 2020, deaths due to COVID-19 have been higher than every year monthly data are available (1959 to 2020).

Deaths due to coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Comparison of deaths from the coronavirus (COVID-19) with deaths from influenza (flu) and pneumonia. Includes deaths by date of death occurrence and breakdowns by sex and age.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[cupid_stunt]

The Times today (paywall) is saying that pubs and restaurants in the north of England will be closed on Monday. It says:

The prime minister signed off on the lockdown last night alongside new financial support and a simplified system of restrictions in England.
The measures will include wage support for employees of businesses that were forced back into lockdown three months after opening. The new system of restrictions divides England into three tiers of escalating severity.

Well that would be something, but what about help for the businesses?

Here comes the traffic light system...

And the Sun gives this explantation of how the new, simplified three-tier system of restrictions may work.

In plans signed off at a ministerial “gold command” meeting last night, Tier 1 will see current social distancing measures, the “rule of six” and a pub curfew of 10pm enforced.
Areas in Tier 2 will have the same restrictions plus a ban on households mixing.
Vast swathes of the virus-hit north-west and north-east would automatically fall under Tier 3, in which pubs, restaurants and other hospitality businesses will be shut.
People will not be able to mix households — except those with exemptions — and will have to abide by the national social distancing laws, such as wearing face masks.

UK coronavirus: 17,540 new cases as pubs and restaurants linked with 30% of infections in under-30s – as it happened

UK records 17,540 new cases, 77 deaths and 609 new hospital admissions; Chris Whitty presents data on pubs and restaurants

www.theguardian.com

 

[frogwoman]

A lot of pubs have gone out their way to make it safe. I can understand if they're pissed off at being blamed if infections are by and large happening elsewhere, eg in households and other places of work (are they? I don't know)

 

[StoneRoad]

No. you political twerps, impose the new restrictions before the weekend, not afterwards.

Otherwise you'll get the Blackpool effect, again ...

and yet more cases leading to more deaths ...

 

[Teaboy]

This might just be me but I'm detecting a hardening of attitudes against lockdown measures and increasing them. I noticed it first at the weekend with my group of friends. These are all guys who's jobs have been unaffected but they have young families. I also noticed a shift in attitude amongst my work colleagues. Its not a fuck the rules thing its a more we have to get on with it now sort of thing.

I don't know whether this is just fatigue with the situation or the loss of any sort of faith in the government and even loss of faith in each other as a population. It might be a combination of things.

I really think the government would struggle to enforce really strict measures again. I think they'd get pelters from all sides and there is a strong likelihood of opposition and disobedience growing exponentially (ha).

 

[StoneRoad]

A lot of pubs have gone out their way to make it safe. I can understand if they're pissed off at being blamed if infections are by and large happening elsewhere, eg in households and other places of work (are they? I don't know)

Yep, the pubs and so on have largely done their best to be "covid-secure"
BUT, and it is a big BUT, their clients are often not abiding by the rules once they've had a few jars ... or they are disappearing into houses for non-covid-secure activities ...

As I've said before "When the booze is in, the brains are out"

[witness some of the student / freshers parties that took place !]

 

[frogwoman]

Interesting new report just published by the ONS.

Deaths due to coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Comparison of deaths from the coronavirus (COVID-19) with deaths from influenza (flu) and pneumonia. Includes deaths by date of death occurrence and breakdowns by sex and age.

www.ons.gov.uk

What about 1957 or 1968 (there were horrible flu pandemics then)

 

[Buddy Bradley]

A lot of pubs have gone out their way to make it safe. I can understand if they're pissed off at being blamed if infections are by and large happening elsewhere, eg in households and other places of work (are they? I don't know)

That's what I don't understand in all this. If the government has data on where/how infections are spreading (which is literally the point of Track and Trace), and it points to bars/restaurants being a key transmission vector, why don't they just release it?

 

[Teaboy]

A lot of pubs have gone out their way to make it safe. I can understand if they're pissed off at being blamed if infections are by and large happening elsewhere, eg in households and other places of work (are they? I don't know)

I dunno. The pubs round my way are all being super careful and doing everything strictly by the rulebook. On this site though its rare to see the word 'pubs' without it being prefaced by 'crowded'. I don't know how bad the situation has got in pubs but I've not seen it so far.

 

[chilango]

One thing that may be of significance in the coming weeks is that - as a consequence of the Government strategy of individualising responsibility and preemptively pointing the finger of blame at people when cases rise - increasing numbers of people seem to be viewing "lockdown" measures as punitive and so resent the injustice of being punished when they haven't done anything wrong. I fear this will reduce compliance with any increased measures somewhat.

 

[elbows]

A lot of pubs have gone out their way to make it safe. I can understand if they're pissed off at being blamed if infections are by and large happening elsewhere, eg in households and other places of work (are they? I don't know)

Covid secure is a lie in most settings. Things can be done to reduce the risk but they dont eliminate it.

Countries all over the world do not shut down hospitality for a laugh, its role is not really in question and authorities know that and so when forced to act, this is an area they should and will target.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Countries all over the world do not shut down hospitality for a laugh, its role is not really in question and authorities know that

Would still be interesting to know what proportion of cases appear to be spreading via that route in comparison to, say, universities and schools reopening, or people visiting others' homes. Or even what the number of cases looks like if you take care homes out of the equation.

 

[frogwoman]

One thing that may be of significance in the coming weeks is that - as a consequence of the Government strategy of individualising responsibility and preemptively pointing the finger of blame at people when cases rise - increasing numbers of people seem to be viewing "lockdown" measures as punitive and so resent the injustice of being punished when they haven't done anything wrong. I fear this will reduce compliance with any increased measures somewhat.

Yep

 

[cupid_stunt]

What about 1957 or 1968 (there were horrible flu pandemics then)

The figures are from when records began in 1959 to 2020, so 1957 is excluded, but 1968 is included.

 

[frogwoman]

I dunno. The pubs round my way are all being super careful and doing everything strictly by the rulebook. On this site though its rare to see the word 'pubs' without it being prefaced by 'crowded'. I don't know how bad the situation has got in pubs but I've not seen it so far.

There's only one place I've been to so far that I'd think is a bit of a danger and it wasn't a pub.

 

[elbows]

The figures are from when records began in 1959 to 2020, so 1957 is excluded, but 1968 is included.

Yeah and there are other limitations to their comparison. When I read the ONS report, it says this:

“Since 1959, which is when ONS monthly death records began, the number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in the first eight months of every year have been lower than the number of COVID-19 deaths seen, so far, in 2020.”

So this does not capture all historic epidemic and pandemic waves of the period properly, because they often occur over winter and so will only be partially captured by data in the Jan-August timeframe. For example the daily deaths data I've looked at starts on January 1st 1970, when a late 1960s H3N2 influenza pandemic wave was peaking on the first days of 1970 and then falling away. So the late 1969 chunk of that wave is missing, and will also be missing from the monthly data they used as they are only using 8 months of each year so they can make a comparison with the 2020 so far.

The total number of deaths per day from all causes in the 1970 onwards data I have only features one day where the number of deaths was higher than that seen at the very peak of the first wave of the current pandemic. And that was very early January 1970 during the peak of the aforementioned H3N2 pandemic wave.

 

[elbows]

Peoples impression of danger is distorted by a lack of consideration of the role of poor ventilation, and too much focus on the more visible measures, measures which are designed to reassure and to do something but are far from the whole story.

Most pubs are inherently unsafe settings in this pandemic.