Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[cupid_stunt]

Peoples impression of danger is distorted by a lack of consideration of the role of poor ventilation, and too much focus on the more visible measures, measures which are designed to reassure and to do something but are far from the whole story.

Most pubs are inherently unsafe settings in this pandemic.

Especially now the weather has changed, and few opportunities to drink outside.

 

[LDC]

Would still be interesting to know what proportion of cases appear to be spreading via that route in comparison to, say, universities and schools reopening, or people visiting others' homes. Or even what the number of cases looks like if you take care homes out of the equation.

There's plenty out there showing the risk in hospitality. The measures for them are pretty universally implemented across the world, and not just because the various governments think it's fun to do so.

 

[Cloo]

The main thing is that you are not supposed to visit anyone outside of your household or allow anyone into your home or garden.

Which I guess is not much good if you can still congregate with large numbers of other people without masks to eat and drink.

 

[editor]

Would still be interesting to know what proportion of cases appear to be spreading via that route in comparison to, say, universities and schools reopening, or people visiting others' homes. Or even what the number of cases looks like if you take care homes out of the equation.

I'd love to see the figures for tube journeys as some remain packed at peak times and I can't think of a more risky environment, particularly with the idiots who wear their masks with their hooter exposed.

 

[teuchter]

Peoples impression of danger is distorted by a lack of consideration of the role of poor ventilation, and too much focus on the more visible measures, measures which are designed to reassure and to do something but are far from the whole story.

Most pubs are inherently unsafe settings in this pandemic.

Yes, because buildings and their ventilation is part of my day job, I'm pretty aware of the variability in decent ventilation between different settings but I think this is quite invisible to most people.

My advice as we go into winter is stay well away from anywhere you can see the windows steaming up.

 

[Teaboy]

Which I guess is not much good if you can still congregate with large numbers of other people without masks to eat and drink.

Or if no one pays any attention and just carries on meeting up as before. Which lets face it is happening on a massive scale. I'm not blaming anyone here but a lot of people have long since given up on a lot of these restrictions.

 

[Cid]

Just some rambling observations on communal places I've seen/been in over the last couple of weeks:

I've been out twice in the last 2 weeks - birthday season... First was a nice restaurant, second food hall type restaurant. I have no plans for any more out-goings because frankly these made it seem somewhat risky. The food hall probably had somewhat better ventilation, I wasn't paying attention but did see that building when it was still being converted (old workshops). Just can't remember exactly what kind of system they were using. But the general volume of speech there was pretty high... It's difficult to say why exactly, but it was. Restaurant was... well, a fairly standard English restaurant set-up. Medium sized ground floor space. There was some level of distancing, but you're sitting 1-1.5m away from other people for 1-2 hours. Certainly wasn't 2m.

The other thing I noticed was two gyms open near me... One is a pure gym (business model rather than brand), the other a boxing gym. Quick point - I walked past these mildly pissed, I wasn't about to stop and make detailed observations of y'know, people using a gym. The machine spacing in the pure gym was as normal, but with people only using alternate machines... They do have extensive ventilation systems normally, but afaik these are usually designed around recirculation - vent-axia seem to have issued a warning to that effect (though, I mean, ventilation company saying you must upgrade your ventilation). But just seeing people barely 2m apart, in a student district, going full gas on a running machine/bike. Yeah. I have a turbo-trainer at home and know just how much air you can put out when working at a high heart rate. The boxing gym was, from what I could see, people doing solo pad work distanced. But I cannot imagine that place is well ventilated (quite apart from anything else the amount of condensation on windows indicated otherwise).

 

[elbows]

I suppose I shall try to make time to follow these joint hearings:

Former ministers to hold 'rapid' inquiry into government's Covid-19 response

Senior Tory MPs Jeremy Hunt and Greg Clark will lead cross-party investigation

www.theguardian.com

 

[Teaboy]

I suppose I shall try to make time to follow these joint hearings:

Former ministers to hold 'rapid' inquiry into government's Covid-19 response

Senior Tory MPs Jeremy Hunt and Greg Clark will lead cross-party investigation

www.theguardian.com

Jeremy Hunt? I'm sure he'll want to get to the root of the problem, leave no stone unturned.

 

[elbows]

Or if no one pays any attention and just carries on meeting up as before. Which lets face it is happening on a massive scale. I'm not blaming anyone here but a lot of people have long since given up on a lot of these restrictions.

Its probably only a matter of time till psychological stuff is ramped up again, eg desperate appeal from NHS workers.

 

[elbows]

Jeremy Hunt? I'm sure he'll want to get to the root of the problem, leave no stone unturned.

I'm not a fan but he has been useful in the past when asking some of the right questions to people like Whitty at heath committee meetings.

 

[Cloo]

The other thing I noticed was two gyms open near me... One is a pure gym (business model rather than brand), the other a boxing gym. Quick point - I walked past these mildly pissed, I wasn't about to stop and make detailed observations of y'know, people using a gym. The machine spacing in the pure gym was as normal, but with people only using alternate machines... They do have extensive ventilation systems normally, but afaik these are usually designed around recirculation - vent-axia seem to have issued a warning to that effect (though, I mean, ventilation company saying you must upgrade your ventilation). But just seeing people barely 2m apart, in a student district, going full gas on a running machine/bike. Yeah. I have a turbo-trainer at home and know just how much air you can put out when working at a high heart rate. The boxing gym was, from what I could see, people doing solo pad work distanced. But I cannot imagine that place is well ventilated (quite apart from anything else the amount of condensation on windows indicated otherwise).

yeah, my Purgym is open and I'm keeping paying my fee as it's not much and I'd like to stay open until I can go back, but it just seems an unnecessary risk.

We're going to lunch for gsv's birthday on Sunday, but I'm not planning on eating out frequently, certainly not while you can't eat outside. Nowhere's really going to be distanced or well ventilated enough to be safe inside.

 

[Teaboy]

I'm not a fan but he has been useful in the past when asking some of the right questions to people like Whitty at heath committee meetings.

Sure, but given a large part of the government's response was dictated by (and indeed handicapped by) the situation the country and NHS was in at the start of the pandemic I cannot think of anyone (apart from Hancock himself) who has a bigger conflict of interest.

 

[elbows]

Sure, but given a large part of the government's response was dictated by (and indeed handicapped by) the situation the country and NHS was in at the start of the pandemic I cannot think of anyone (apart from Hancock himself) who has a bigger conflict of interest.

Thats a problem if I want to entire story via Hunt. But because he will be desperate to look at all the other important angles that dont implicate him, he should be able to help expose stuff on those other fronts, and then someone else can expose the stuff that dooms Hunt.

If I manage to sit through streams of the committee hearings then it will be lots of small revelations that I'm after, rather than the broader picture which, as you point out, is already known really.

 

[emanymton]

It's difficult to tell tbh. Most people I know are abiding by it.
It means that I'm not allowed to have a couple of friends round for a beer and a socially distanced fire in my garden, so perversley, after not going to the pub for months, we have now started to arrange weekly pub visits so we can see each other

I agree it is hard to tell and you nearly show why. No household mixing doesn't just mean at home it applies across the board. If you cannot see your friends in your house you cannot meet them in a pub either. Seems to be a common misunderstanding.

Well you could meet them in a pub if each household sat at a different socially distanced table and you didn't mix.

 

[elbows]

Also regarding Hunt, he probably knows that he wont have to shoulder too much of the blame on his own since its a multi-decade story. I dont yet have all the long term statistics I want to make this case properly, but here is one crude clue about what Im on about.

Number of hospital beds UK 2022 | Statista

How many hospital beds are in the UK? The number of hospital beds in the U.S. hit an all time low in 2020 and has increased slightly in the years since.

www.statista.com

 

[elbows]

More 'world beating' shite.

The latest figures from the Test and Trace service in England show that the close contacts of 68.6% of people who tested positive for Covid-19 were reached in the week ending 30 September.

That is down from 72.5% the previous week and is the lowest weekly percentage since Test and Trace began in May. It comes as the service faced its largest ever number of positive tests with 51,475 confirmed cases, a 56% increase on the previous week.

In cases handled by local health protection teams, 97.1% of contacts were reached and asked to self-isolate. But when cases were handled online or by call centres, only 62.4% of close contacts were reached and asked to self-isolate

From 11:32 on BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54460270

 

[cupid_stunt]

Clearly she's talking about certain areas, but still depressing.

On the World at One Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals and other NHS trusts, said hospitals in the north if England were now seeing admission levels equivalent to those in the spring, when the epidemic was at its peak. He also said health chiefs in the region wanted to see restrictions tightened soon to stop the problem getting worse. He told the programme:
"I’ve spoken to three chief executives in the north of England today all three of whom are saying, ‘Please, please everybody, don’t be misled by the national statistics’, which show that, yes, hospital admissions are much lower on a national basis than they were in the first phase. What they’re saying is they are seeing admission levels which are now at the same as they were in the north of England in the peak. And what they’re saying to us is they’re concerned.
In their view, it’s pretty clear evidence that the local lockdown measures that are in place aren’t working sufficiently well ...
So what they’re saying is, we need to think really carefully, really quite quickly, about whether we do need to go for tougher local lockdowns."

Scotland cancels National 5 exams amid new restrictions; UK sees 14,162 more cases – as it happened

National 5 exams cancelled next year for Scottish pupils; new measures brought in for Scotland; new cases in UK down very slightly

www.theguardian.com

 

[Cid]

I agree it is hard to tell and you nearly show why. No household mixing doesn't just mean at home it applies across the board. If you cannot see your friends in your house you cannot meet them in a pub either. Seems to be a common misunderstanding.

Well you could meet them in a pub if each household sat at a different socially distanced table and you didn't mix.

I’m not sure that’s true. Or at least if it is, it’s very unclear from reading the rules.

e2a: I had thought this myself incidentally, and noted that it appears widely ignored.

 

[elbows]

Somewhat more useful hospital bed stats than I managed earlier:

NHS hospital bed numbers

The number of hospital beds in England has more than halved over the past 30 years. This explainer looks at data on hospital beds, explores the drivers underpinning the changes it shows, and considers whether further reductions to bed numbers are realistic.

www.kingsfund.org.uk

 

[andysays]

One thing that may be of significance in the coming weeks is that - as a consequence of the Government strategy of individualising responsibility and preemptively pointing the finger of blame at people when cases rise - increasing numbers of people seem to be viewing "lockdown" measures as punitive and so resent the injustice of being punished when they haven't done anything wrong. I fear this will reduce compliance with any increased measures somewhat.

Agreed, and the language used in reporting restrictions tends to encourage that thinking, and also the attitude of "how can I avoid these rules where possible?"

 

[Looby]

We’ve mostly avoided any indoor activities at all. We went on holiday in Devon but mostly ate at the house and went inside one pub the whole time.
My bezzer took me for a late birthday dinner last night, they offered an inside table but neither of us wanted to, so we shivered a little outside with our coats on. The staff seemed surprised that we wouldn’t go in. There was a group in there for a birthday, loud, drinking, shouting, singing. I didn’t want to be near them.
That was probably one of the last times we’ll get to do that for a while.
We’ll do wrapped up dog walks and stuff I expect.

I still have a gym membership because I’m waiting for our bathroom to be done. Selfishly I would like them to stay open long enough that we can shower whilst we have no bathroom.

I guess for me I’m taking enough risks at work that I can’t do so in my private life too, I have to minimise potential exposure where I can. Other people are making different choices but I think most I know are being careful and we’re not under any local restrictions.

I’m having a spell of feeling quite shit about it all, I guess we all have waves of this. My birthday has just passed and there was no big night out, no hugs and dancing.
I miss that, I’m tactile and I want to hug my friends and feel relaxed and comfortable with them.
I want to go in a supermarket without feeling I have to rush and constantly scanning if people are too close to me or coughing and not wearing masks.

I do have fucking shitloads of toilet roll though as I’ve signed up to a Who Gives A Crap subscription.

 

[emanymton]

I’m not sure that’s true. Or at least if it is, it’s very unclear from reading the rules.

e2a: I had thought this myself incidentally, and noted that it appears widely ignored.

As far as I am aware the national rule that households can mix but only up to a max of 6 people. And it applies in all situations.

Where a local ban on household mixing is in place it again applies in all situations. Be crazy if it didn't. I guess an area could have different rules and allow mixing in some cases and not others.

This is ignoring any specific exemptions, like workplaces.

 

[xenon]

I dunno. The pubs round my way are all being super careful and doing everything strictly by the rulebook. On this site though its rare to see the word 'pubs' without it being prefaced by 'crowded'. I don't know how bad the situation has got in pubs but I've not seen it so far.

Hasn't been crowded in the few I've been in. Granted a self selecting sample as neither I or friends want to go any where crowded. Using the NHS app, mask on when walking in and going to the loo etc.

I think the problem with attributing outbreaks to venue types is this issue of super spreaders. Crowded poorly ventilated venues are the environment these events can best occur. But obviously this doesn't describe all hospitality venues by any means and does describe some households, shops, factories etc.

 

[Cid]

As far as I am aware the national rule that households can mix but only up to a max of 6 people. And it applies in all situations.

Where a local ban on household mixing is in place it again applies in all situations. Be crazy if it didn't. I guess an area could have different rules and allow mixing in some cases and not others.

This is ignoring any specific exemptions, like workplaces.

Right, misunderstanding... iirc if households mix in any situation outside restaurants, even in groups of 6, they should socially distance. In restaurant not needed. And there are additional restrictions dependant on region outside restaurant settings, which may have been what mrsteev was getting at.

The fact I am failing to keep this shit in my head gives me something of an indication as to how a lot of people end up just ignoring it.

E2a: and obviously meeting indoors restrictions are more onerous, which is going to be far more important over the next few months.

 

[elbows]

2h ago 10:14

The Times today (paywall) is saying that pubs and restaurants in the north of England will be closed on Monday. It says:

The prime minister signed off on the lockdown last night alongside new financial support and a simplified system of restrictions in England.
The measures will include wage support for employees of businesses that were forced back into lockdown three months after opening. The new system of restrictions divides England into three tiers of escalating severity.

And the Sun gives this explantation of how the new, simplified three-tier system of restrictions may work.

In plans signed off at a ministerial “gold command” meeting last night, Tier 1 will see current social distancing measures, the “rule of six” and a pub curfew of 10pm enforced.
Areas in Tier 2 will have the same restrictions plus a ban on households mixing.
Vast swathes of the virus-hit north-west and north-east would automatically fall under Tier 3, in which pubs, restaurants and other hospitality businesses will be shut.
People will not be able to mix households – except those with exemptions – and will have to abide by the national social distancing laws, such as wearing face masks.

 

[LDC]

"Critical hospital admission levels in about ten days?"

Government twiddles thumbs on restrictions until Monday...

 

[mr steev]

Which I guess is not much good if you can still congregate with large numbers of other people without masks to eat and drink.

That's presuming you can afford to go to the pub or out to eat (bearing in mind that these extra restrictions are in some very deprived areas) - psychologically, I think it's tougher than a full lockdown in some ways... Some people don't get to see anyone, where as others mix at work, school, college and can afford to go out. At least with a full lockdown there was a feeling of everyone in it together

 

[mr steev]

I agree it is hard to tell and you nearly show why. No household mixing doesn't just mean at home it applies across the board. If you cannot see your friends in your house you cannot meet them in a pub either. Seems to be a common misunderstanding.

Well you could meet them in a pub if each household sat at a different socially distanced table and you didn't mix.

You can still meet with up to 6 people in a pub, but not at home

 

[two sheds]

Well you could meet them in a pub if each household sat at a different socially distanced table and you didn't mix.

And just shout to the other table to make yourself heard over the other people shouting to the other table.