clicker
nanook rubs it....
Time for him to get a quick pint in afterwards before the witching hour.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
10pm curfew won't apply to their subsidized bars. Rules are for little people who can't be trusted.
Anyway, we'll no doubt have the usual few days notice.
elbows
Well-Known Member
My brief (well, relatively) analysis of the Triggle 50,000 France & Spain trajectory thing.
The main complications are:
What the doubling time actually is.
The fact that testing systems in all these countries are not going to pick up every case, especially not when that system comes under severe strain.
Away from the shit world of Triggle, I'm pretty sure Vallance deliberately said that their graph was not an exact prediction, it was there to illustrate the lessons about exponential growth for all those quacking fucks who have their special reasons to ignore such lessons.
As fo the trajectories of France and Spain, it doesnt look like a one week doubling time, maybe 2 weeks would be a closer approximation, and even that claim probably needs to be vaguer still to stay fair. But still the exponential signs are there so the rise has been quite bad enough to justify these sorts of fears. And the number of daily infections they are detecting is at a level where I would expect their testing system cannot meet demand, leaving me in the dark about the more recent picture there.
I mean, does anybody here think that the UK system can manage to detect tens of thousands of cases a day if that is the reality it faces at some point in the coming weeks?
So we will have to rely increasingly on estimates for how many infections there actually are per day. It might help if I knew what the estimates for that are in France and Spain, as opposed to only the hard data their testing systems can directly produce. But I dont know if they have such estimates.
Plus even if we have gotten the estimated doubling time wrong and its slower than they think, this only improves the timing picture a little, it doesnt change the fundamental picture or allow the likes of Triggle to talk reasonably about 'a natural drift upwards'. So yeah, I'm done with that cunt for now at least.
The main complications are:
What the doubling time actually is.
The fact that testing systems in all these countries are not going to pick up every case, especially not when that system comes under severe strain.
Away from the shit world of Triggle, I'm pretty sure Vallance deliberately said that their graph was not an exact prediction, it was there to illustrate the lessons about exponential growth for all those quacking fucks who have their special reasons to ignore such lessons.
As fo the trajectories of France and Spain, it doesnt look like a one week doubling time, maybe 2 weeks would be a closer approximation, and even that claim probably needs to be vaguer still to stay fair. But still the exponential signs are there so the rise has been quite bad enough to justify these sorts of fears. And the number of daily infections they are detecting is at a level where I would expect their testing system cannot meet demand, leaving me in the dark about the more recent picture there.
I mean, does anybody here think that the UK system can manage to detect tens of thousands of cases a day if that is the reality it faces at some point in the coming weeks?
So we will have to rely increasingly on estimates for how many infections there actually are per day. It might help if I knew what the estimates for that are in France and Spain, as opposed to only the hard data their testing systems can directly produce. But I dont know if they have such estimates.
Plus even if we have gotten the estimated doubling time wrong and its slower than they think, this only improves the timing picture a little, it doesnt change the fundamental picture or allow the likes of Triggle to talk reasonably about 'a natural drift upwards'. So yeah, I'm done with that cunt for now at least.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
I'd:
swap furlough for UBI,
add scrapping GCSEs and A levels to be replaced by portfolio based assessment
debt repayment freeze (reviewed in 12 months)
more radical, but still just about plausible.
flypanam
Sausage to fortune
Mandatory rent reduction to 40% of present rate. No future clawback.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
just freeze repayment (mortgage repayments too before the BTLers cry)
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
I think that's one thing that has come out of our past experiences - there is little need to worry so much about transmission outdoors, or transmission via things like shopping. On the other hand, social distancing indoors, and stuff like mask wearing does appear to have been effective.
And, to some extent, this is always going to end up being about taking the steps that make the big difference, and not sweating the small stuff too badly. The trouble is that the government, all too often, wants to focus on gestures and things that look like they make a difference, rather than the more substantive - and sometimes harder-to-do - stuff that gets the real big wins.
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
They're having trouble being proactive about something with a lag time of weeks between control measures and their effects.
If we stopped burning fossil fuels entirely right now, it would be decades before we saw a definitive sign of a change in climate.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Yeah agree with all the above comments/additions to suggestions. I was being really cautious and purposefully steering away from anything too radical, just to show effective measures that could be realistically be taken now without it being a big political battle.
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
Why is it that people with beliefs about the virus which they got off YouTube are so compelled to evangelically spread those ideas ? I keep hearing it, at supermarket checkouts etc, like they’re intent on ‘waking up’ as many random strangers as possible.
Haven't had anyone like that yet, but when I do I'm going to find it really hard not to have a go at them.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Depends what the ventilation is like in the shopping environment.
We better hear a lot more about ventilation in the public health messages in the coming months, or we are making an obvious mistake.
mauvais
on reddit or something
Left brain: mandatory rent reduction!
Right brain: oh no my BTL income!
Your failing middle brain trying to come up with a hapless centrist compromise: errr freeze repayment for all I guess?
My galaxy brain: tenant co-ops pay BAE Systems to drone strike the landlords at no cost to the state
he's busy at the supermarket telling the checkout staff some shit he saw on youtube
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Heads up - the floppy hair twat has left Downing Street to give his statement to the commons in a few minutes.
Lord Camomile
Yipchaa!
Starts off with "we have struck a balance between saving lives..." - might have phrased that better, eh?
Lord Camomile
Yipchaa!
"It's time to tighten up the rule of six, so now only 15 people can attend a wedding, but 30 can still attend a funeral"
STOP CALLING IT THE RULE OF SIX IF YOU THEN INTRODUCE OTHER NUMBERS!
STOP CALLING IT THE RULE OF SIX IF YOU THEN INTRODUCE OTHER NUMBERS!
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
These are the important points:
First, office workers are being asked to work from home.
Second, Johnson says, from Thursday pubs and restaurants will have to offer table service, except for takeaways. And they will close from 10pm.
Third, staff in retail and indoor hospitality will have to wear masks. And they will be needed in taxis.
Fourth, Covid-secure workplace rules will become a legal obligation.
Fifth, the rule of six will be amended so that only 15 people can attend weddings from Monday.
And, sixth, from 1 October the plan to ease the rules for sports evens will be suspended.
First, office workers are being asked to work from home.
Second, Johnson says, from Thursday pubs and restaurants will have to offer table service, except for takeaways. And they will close from 10pm.
Third, staff in retail and indoor hospitality will have to wear masks. And they will be needed in taxis.
Fourth, Covid-secure workplace rules will become a legal obligation.
Fifth, the rule of six will be amended so that only 15 people can attend weddings from Monday.
And, sixth, from 1 October the plan to ease the rules for sports evens will be suspended.
Am I alone in feeling completely underwhelmed?
QueenOfGoths
Fuck you Dave!
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