Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

By my calculations the current daily death rate is less than the average flu season rate averaged over a 12 month period. Also death rates per case seem lowering as well.

If a vaccination is not coming soon, and there are no guarantees of that, isn't it time we just got back to normal while shielding the most vulnerable?

We can't stay in lock down or lock down lite forever.
 
savoloysam said:
By my calculations the current daily death rate is less than the average flu season rate averaged over a 12 month period. Also death rates per case seem lowering as well.

If a vaccination is not coming soon, and there are no guarantees of that, isn't it time we just got back to normal while shielding the most vulnerable?

We can't stay in lock down or leave lock down lite forever.
Click to expand...
You wouldn't say that if your lungs had been scarred to fuck by the virus.
 
savoloysam said:
By my calculations the current daily death rate is less than the average flu season rate averaged over a 12 month period. Also death rates per case seem lowering as well.

If a vaccination is not coming soon, and there are no guarantees of that, isn't it time we just got back to normal while shielding the most vulnerable?

We can't stay in lock down or lock down lite forever.
Click to expand...
No. HTH.
 
savoloysam said:
By my calculations the current daily death rate is less than the average flu season rate averaged over a 12 month period. Also death rates per case seem lowering as well.

If a vaccination is not coming soon, and there are no guarantees of that, isn't it time we just got back to normal while shielding the most vulnerable?

We can't stay in lock down or lock down lite forever.
Click to expand...

You should get on the phone to NHS management and tell them not to worry, your calculations indicate that they wont be overwhelmed after all, pandemic over, sorted.
 
It is a fucking mishmash of shit which I have zero intention of following. If I want to meet up with 8 members of my family and friends outside, I bloody well will do. Or10. What I won't be doing (and haven't all year) is 'eating out to help out', going to pubs, going on holiday,, using public transport, attending classes, meetings or using supermarkets. I trust my own interpretation of risk, both for myself and people I know. I won't be grassing people up either. Govt. priorities are not my priorities - I have no trust in anything put out by the Govt. or it's utterly unfair and crapulous 'rules'. I have been sensible and careful throughout this pandemic but I cannot bring myself to blame those who have been more casual since it feels as though we are on our own, left to manage as best we can while the pandemic has been monetised by corrupt fuckers who have never had the slightest intentions of protecting the public. I am so angry, I actually feel like sticking my fingers up at any of these rules for protecting the economy... and have decided to follow my own agenda of keeping myself, and those around me, as safe as possible...which does not include keeping the fucking pub and restaurant trade going. As it happens, I have lived on UC for a long time - while it is not easy, I am alive and not consumed with acquisitive desires for ever more consumption (and inevitable global injustice). Nope, I see this pandemic as a chance for a whole resetting of power relations between labour and capital.
 
Last edited:
savoloysam said:
By my calculations the current daily death rate is less than the average flu season rate averaged over a 12 month period. Also death rates per case seem lowering as well.

If a vaccination is not coming soon, and there are no guarantees of that, isn't it time we just got back to normal while shielding the most vulnerable?

We can't stay in lock down or lock down lite forever.
Click to expand...
There have been 30 deaths in London in the past 5 weeks. City of 8 million and there are people calling for a full lockdown again. Proper madness
 
elbows said:
The half term bit of the circuit breaker was actually an older plan and some corners of the press seized on it when the rumbling about new measures started. But even this government realise that the half term timing doesnt match the stage the virus resurgence already reached, so I really dont think that sort of timing is on the table now.

I mean they might still use half term to go further with measures for a bit, but that will be its own thing on top of whatever will be announced this week.
Click to expand...

just like in Spring when they desperately tried to get to the Easter holidays...and failed.
 
On July 1st, the day the pubs reopened there were 90 deaths in England. Today there are 9 and people want to close them again. Science and reason has no place in this debate it seems.
 
xenon said:
and demand what? because I think there will be disagreement.
Personally I’m going down the pub tonight, I’m not sitting in the hot flat while all this goes on knowing that they might all close again. The tables are spaced out there is room outside, infection rate he is relatively low, I’m not likely to see family now again for a few weeks .
Click to expand...

Fuck knows.

...but essentially put public health ahead of private profit.
 
savoloysam said:
By my calculations the current daily death rate is less than the average flu season rate averaged over a 12 month period. Also death rates per case seem lowering as well.

If a vaccination is not coming soon, and there are no guarantees of that, isn't it time we just got back to normal while shielding the most vulnerable?

We can't stay in lock down or lock down lite forever.
Click to expand...

Hospital admissions are doubling every week, we are just 2 weeks away from where we were before lockdown in March - SEE THIS POST.

Deaths are also doubling around every 7 days, average 21 a day ATM, if that doubling continues we are looking at 336 deaths a day in 4 weeks time, and 1344 deaths a day in 6 weeks time.
 
savoloysam said:
By my calculations the current daily death rate is less than the average flu season rate averaged over a 12 month period. Also death rates per case seem lowering as well.

If a vaccination is not coming soon, and there are no guarantees of that, isn't it time we just got back to normal while shielding the most vulnerable?

We can't stay in lock down or lock down lite forever.
Click to expand...

Deaths usually take a while to kick in though after a wave has begun; I suspect that number will start to increase quite significantly in the weeks to come. And if you just allow the virus to keep spreading without preventative measures it'll just get worse and worse - inevitably you'll have hundreds, if not thousands, dying daily before long.

And bearing in mind those current numbers are with gathering restrictions in many places, no large events, and most people being somewhat conscious of health concerns by wearing masks etc.

Not to mention simply shielding old people is quite difficult. What about old people who stay with younger relatives? What about carers who need to work with older people? Do they have to self-isolate when they're off-duty, or can they still go to the pub etc? Probably too many variables for it to work.
 
Mr Retro said:
On July 1st, the day the pubs reopened there were 90 deaths in England. Today there are 9 and people want to close them again. Science and reason has no place in this debate it seems.
Click to expand...

I dont think much of your ideas about science and reason.

Where were you when they fucked up last time by leaving the lockdown till much later than it should have been?

Are you aware that when they had to throw their original shit plan away around March 16th there had only been 81 deaths recorded for the UK in total? Because it wasnt about how many deaths there had been, it was about the trajectory and how many deaths were coming,

A week later when they finally announced a more comprehensive lockdown, the total was up to 508. A few weeks later, when daily deaths peaked, the total was 9608.

And these are only hospital death figures.

Lesson number 1, which most people grasped successfully, is that you cannot wait till the deaths reach a staggering level before acting.
 
Mr Retro said:
On July 1st, the day the pubs reopened there were 90 deaths in England. Today there are 9 and people want to close them again. Science and reason has no place in this debate it seems.
Click to expand...

Deaths reported on Sundays & Mondays are always lower, then go up on Tuesday as the lag from the weekend catches up.

The rolling 7 day average is the one to watch, that's at 21, three times what it was on the 3rd Sept.!
 
Mr Retro said:
On July 1st, the day the pubs reopened there were 90 deaths in England. Today there are 9 and people want to close them again. Science and reason has no place in this debate it seems.
Click to expand...

In July when pubs reopened case numbers were gradually decreasing and we seemed to be on the right track. Now we're going the other way though and cases are exponentially increasing - it reasons that more deaths will in all likelihood follow. Whether we should be closing bars again is worth debating, but a straight-up deaths comparison needs context. If we're shutting pubs again it's not because there were nine deaths - it's because there'll be a lot more in weeks to come.
 
savoloysam said:
By my calculations the current daily death rate is less than the average flu season rate averaged over a 12 month period. Also death rates per case seem lowering as well.

If a vaccination is not coming soon, and there are no guarantees of that, isn't it time we just got back to normal while shielding the most vulnerable?

We can't stay in lock down or lock down lite forever.
Click to expand...
I remember having these discussions a lot in late February/early March “only 10 people are dying a day, more die of flu”. Then by April there were 1000 deaths a day.

Just letting it run it’s course would surely only we work if we decide not to treat Covid cases - if you get a positive result you go home and either survive or not - else it’s too much for hospitals to cope with. Even with an extra 200 people a day dying by November, the numbers would be hard for the NHS to manage along with flu deaths and running all the usual NHS services.
 
bimble said:
I think loads of people not understanding what exponential means (me included) has not helped.
Click to expand...

Yep, that's true, hence the briefing this morning, and this graph....

1d.png

Trouble with that, they have taken the daily positive test numbers, rather than the more accurate ONS estimate of actual new infections per day, which is over 6,000, and would mean well over 100,000 a day by mid-Oct.

And, over 500,000 a day in early Nov., hence the need for more restrictions.
 
frogwoman said:
I see letting it run its course is going great in the US, Brazil etc.

I am worried about what another lockdown will mean tho in terms of jobs etc, especially with this lot in charge.
Click to expand...

Furlough scheme will surely just need to be extended indefinitely. Difficult to see any other alternative if you're shutting down large parts of the economy, or encouraging people to avoid economic activity.

The government were determined to improve the economic numbers as soon as possible once things began to wear off initially, but it's pretty clear now that the economy bouncing back probably isn't compatible with curbing the spread of the virus, because our economic model depends fundamentally on people doing things which involve them mixing in social settings etc.
 
bimble said:
I think loads of people not understanding what exponential means (me included) has not helped.
Click to expand...

As in elbows post if you've got 1 person infected then (say) they pass it on to one person and you get 1 new infection per day. If you've got 10 people infected you get 10 new infections per day. If you've got 1 million people infected you get 1 million new infections per day

:(
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

elbows
UK Inquiry Module 3: Impact on UK Healthcare Systems
2
Replies
37
Views
613
InArduisFouette
I
elbows
UK Inquiry Module 1: Resilience and preparedness
2 3 4 5 6
Replies
165
Views
5K
elbows
elbows
elbows
UK Inquiry Module 2: Decision-making & political governance
2 3 4 5 6
Replies
173
Views
4K
elbows
elbows
frogwoman
Shanghai lockdown
2
Replies
55
Views
2K
skyscraper101
skyscraper101
editor
Professional football and coronavirus
Replies
6
Views
526
elbows
elbows
Back
Top Bottom