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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

S☼I said:
I think the problem is they don't know how many people have got it. They may even be doing it backwards by going oh, 71 people have died, that must mean 70,000 people must have it
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They probably are taking death stats as being more reliable now. For countries like the UK at least - where we don't really have an axe to grind either way. Japan, I am less sure of as they have the Olympics still in play.
 
Quieter on the buses to and from work but dickheads still prevail. I still the furthest away from other people and yet they still come and sit behind, in front or directly opposite me :facepalm:
 
phillm said:
This is widely reported and I'm sure it's correct if so isn't that a fatality rate more in line with bad flu season then?

metro.co.uk

UK coronavirus death toll reaches 71 after another 14 die

The Department of Health updated the UK death toll after the Foreign Office advised Britons against non-essential travel to anywhere in the world.
metro.co.uk metro.co.uk

Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely¾from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19. Public Health England does not publish a mortality rate for the flu.

fullfact.org

How does the new coronavirus compare to influenza? - Full Fact

The World Health Organisation says the Covid-19 coronavirus spreads slower than the flu, but appears to have a higher mortality rate.
fullfact.org fullfact.org
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No, the 1 to 1000 figure is a rule of thumb for estimating how many active cases there are in the growth phase. The number of deaths always lags behind the number of cases in the growth phase, as its the deaths from the number of cases 2-4 weeks ago. It’s not an estimate of fatality rate, which is still probably about 10x larger give or take.
 
Gramsci said

But as big business is doing a lock down before being ordered to by government this might help stop virus spreading .

Which may be good for the country as a whole. If not for the low paid who keep London going.
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Still trying to get my head around how far a lockdown or "managed shut-down of society" could possibly go?Aside from those whose work is computer-based ,those easily able to work from home it does seem to me that there are swathes of people who are just going to have to continue to go to work simply to keep the economy going.So many people are in occupations that at the end of the day could be described as essential.These people if not actually ill themselves be they coppers or council-workers or delivery-persons cannot surely be told from on high that they must stand-down because if that were to happen there will be chaos.Sorry just thinking aloud here.
 
Duncan2 said:
Still trying to get my head around how far a lockdown or "managed shut-down of society" could possibly go?Aside from those whose work is computer-based ,those easily able to work from home it does seem to me that there are swathes of people who are just going to have to continue to go to work simply to keep the economy going.So many people are in occupations that at the end of the day could be described as essential.These people if not actually ill themselves be they coppers or council-workers or delivery-persons cannot surely be told from on high that they must stand-down because if that were to happen there will be chaos.Sorry just thinking aloud here.
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As soon as all cases are detected and isolated, it can be eased off, as is happening in China. Since South Korea never allowed Covid-19 to run outa control, she never went into a panicked lockdown. Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan of course stopped the virus from ever gaining a foothold (as S.K. probably would've if it hadn't been for that godforsaken church).

That the West ever let it get this far is bad enough, but talk of indefinite lockdowns is unreal. We have concrete demonstrations of why they're unnecessary even without a vaccine. If we junk the mathematical models and patiently follow the excellent examples from Asia, we can get it under control and get things running again. The W.H.O. is screaming at us to test, test, test, every suspected case, every contact. We didn't listen early enough, leading to thousands of needless deaths, but we can listen now, and turn things around.
 
Azrael said:
As soon as all cases are detected and isolated, it can be eased off, as is happening in China. Since South Korea never allowed Covid-19 to run outa control, she never went into a panicked lockdown. Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan of course stopped the virus from ever gaining a foothold (as S.K. probably would've if it hadn't been for that godforsaken church).

That the West ever let it get this far is bad enough, but talk of indefinite lockdowns is unreal. We have concrete demonstrations of why they're unnecessary even without a vaccine. If we junk the mathematical models and patiently follow the excellent examples from Asia, we can get it under control and get things running again. The W.H.O. is screaming at us to test, test, test, every suspected case, every contact. We didn't listen early enough, leading to thousands of needless deaths, but we can listen now, and turn things around.
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Not sure we can, not without testing reagents.
 
Cid said:
Not sure we can, not without testing reagents.
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Of course, we need mass testing to find carriers and break the transmission chains. Thankfully even faster tests look close to rollout, as does a mobile app that mirrors South Korea's (uses geodata to warn you if you've come close to someone infected).

I'm extremely worried about the psychological effects of the government's rudderless fatalism, especially in the aftermath of the obscene "herd immunity" plan. Uncertainty and panic are enemies that can be defeated with a clearly explained roadmap back to something resembling normality.

Museums in China, South Korea and Japan have either reopened, or plan to do so in the coming weeks, as have shops. Reports like this should be highlighted by Whitehall. They offer tangible hope, with mass testing a realistic path to fulfilling it. Yes, there could be further outbreaks, but with the mechanism in place to detect and stamp them out, they needn't trigger the terror of the current epidemic.
 
Azrael said:
Of course, we need mass testing to find carriers and break the transmission chains. Thankfully even faster tests look close to rollout, as does a mobile app that mirrors South Korea's (uses geodata to warn you if you've come close to someone infected).

I'm extremely worried about the psychological effects of the government's rudderless fatalism, especially in the aftermath of the obscene "herd immunity" plan. Uncertainty and panic are enemies that can be defeated with a clearly explained roadmap back to something resembling normality.

Museums in China, South Korea and Japan have either reopened, or plan to do so in the coming weeks, as have shops. Reports like this should be highlighted by Whitehall. They offer tangible hope, with mass testing a realistic path to fulfilling it. Yes, there could be further outbreaks, but with the mechanism in place to detect and stamp them out, they needn't trigger the terror of the current epidemic.
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Thanks for those two posts.. really helpful. The lack of available information about successful precedents has been depressing me. The information given by the Tories is a sick joke. Grinning baffoon BJ himself looks scared shitless, totally out of his depth.
 
ska invita said:
Thanks for those two posts.. really helpful. The lack of available information about successful precedents has been depressing me. The information given by the Tories is a sick joke. Grinning baffoon BJ himself looks scared shitless, totally out of his depth.
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Glad they've helped a little, this is exactly what I'm talking about. :)

After a weekend living in terror of a "herd immunity" plan that was as criminally negligent as it was scientifically illiterate, my feelings towards the government have passed loathing. Just want them gone, and gone quickly (Jeremy Hunt's sudden reappearance is maybe a sign that the men in grey suits are circling, we'll see). Cummings and his weirdos having any role in shaping policy currently scares me far more than any coronavirus.
 
Azrael said:
I'm extremely worried about the psychological effects of the government's rudderless fatalism, especially in the aftermath of the obscene "herd immunity" plan. Uncertainty and panic are enemies that can be defeated with a clearly explained roadmap back to something resembling normality.
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I wish I could "like" this bit 100x. There are so many people posting on FB, forums, twitter really worried because the current information coming out is so vague - it's just creating so much unnecessary anxiety and confusion. Seen so many people saying "I've got x condition but my boss won't let me WFH", "I've got young kids and I don't know whether I should let them visit g-parents". Agree with ska invita about BJ being out of his depth - but it really shouldn't be that difficult. :(
 
hegley said:
I wish I could "like" this bit 100x. There are so many people posting on FB, forums, twitter really worried because the current information coming out is so vague - it's just creating so much unnecessary anxiety and confusion. Seen so many people saying "I've got x condition but my boss won't let me WFH", "I've got young kids and I don't know whether I should let them visit g-parents". Agree with ska invita about BJ being out of his depth - but it really shouldn't be that difficult. :(
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Yup. Al Johnson's in the midst of a blue screen of death, refusing to make decisions, prey to ghouls like Cummings and co. An anti-leader, dangerous in the extreme.

May well be down with it myself -- several bouts of fever and a burning chest, now gone -- but thankfully dentist has me on a massive dose of vitamin D, which just happens to squash respiratory infections, so never close to pneumonia. Whatever it was, soon as symptoms appeared, can honestly say I wasn't that worried as clearly a mild case. What did put me in mortal terror was the prospect of a SARS virus turned loose on tens of millions. You've bested corona, Boris, bravo.
 
www.gov.uk

Coronavirus bill: what it will do

Measures contained in the fast-tracked coronavirus legislation and why they are needed to effectively manage the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in the UK.
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk

The legislation will be time-limited – for 2 years – and not all of these measures will come into force immediately. The bill allows the 4 UK governments to switch on these new powers when they are needed, and, crucially, to switch them off again once they are no longer necessary, based on the advice of Chief Medical Officers of the 4 nations.

Contents of the bill
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The bill enables action in 5 key areas:
  1. increasing the available health and social care workforce – for example, by removing barriers to allow recently retired NHS staff and social workers to return to work (and in Scotland, in addition to retired people, allowing those who are on a career break or are social worker students to become temporary social workers)
  2. easing the burden on frontline staff – by reducing the number of administrative tasks they have to perform, enabling local authorities to prioritise care for people with the most pressing needs, allowing key workers to perform more tasks remotely and with less paperwork, and taking the power to suspend individual port operations
  3. containing and slowing the virus – by reducing unnecessary social contacts, for example through powers over events and gatherings, and strengthening the quarantine powers of police and immigration officers
  4. managing the deceased with respect and dignity – by enabling the death management system to deal with increased demand for its services
  5. supporting people – by allowing them to claim Statutory Sick Pay from day one, and by supporting the food industry to maintain supplies
To support this, the bill seeks to:
  • enable regulators to emergency register suitable people as regulated healthcare professionals, such as nurses, midwives or paramedics. This might include (but will not be limited to) recently retired professionals and students who are near the end of their training. Registered staff can then be used appropriately, with decisions made on a local basis, to increase the available health and social care workforce and enable essential health and care services to function during the height of the epidemic
  • enable regulators to temporarily add social workers to their registers who may have recently left the profession. This will ensure vital continuity of care for vulnerable children and adults
  • enable employees and workers to take Emergency Volunteer Leave in blocks of 2, 3 or 4 weeks’ statutory unpaid leave and establish a UK-wide compensation fund to compensate for loss of earnings and expenses incurred at a flat rate for those who volunteer through an appropriate authority. This will ensure that volunteers do not suffer financial disadvantage as a result of performing a public good. Volunteers play a critical role in the delivery of health and social care services and are particularly important in caring for the most vulnerable in our society, such as the elderly, those with multiple long-term conditions or those suffering from mental ill-health
  • provide indemnity for clinical negligence liabilities arising from NHS activities carried out for the purposes of dealing with, or because of, the coronavirus outbreak, where there is no existing indemnity arrangement in place. This will ensure that those providing healthcare service activity across the UK are legally protected for the work they are required to undertake as part of the COVID-19 response. This is in line with and will complement existing arrangements
  • suspend the rule that currently prevents some NHS staff who return to work after retirement from working more than 16 hours per week, along with rules on abatements and drawn-down of NHS pensions that apply to certain retirees who return to work. This will allow skilled and experienced staff who have recently retired from the NHS to return to work, and also allow retired staff who have already returned to work to increase their commitments if required, without having their pension benefits suspended
Easing the burden on frontline staff, both within the NHS and beyond

In the NHS and in other sectors who undertake activities that are vital to keeping the country running safely and securely, we may also face particular increased pressures as a result of staff absence or increased work volumes. This could include those caring for children or in education, protecting our borders, detaining and treating people under the Mental Health Act, supporting local authorities and ensuring national security. By reducing the number of admin tasks they have to perform, allowing key workers to perform more tasks remotely and with less paperwork, we will enable these crucial services to continue to operate effectively during periods of reduced staffing.
To support this the bill seeks to:
  • enable existing mental health legislation powers to detain and treat patients who need urgent treatment for a mental health disorder and are a risk to themselves or others, to be implemented using just one doctor’s opinion (rather than the current 2). This will ensure that those who were a risk to themselves or others would still get the treatment they need, when fewer doctors are available to undertake this function
  • temporarily allow extension or removal of time limits in mental health legislation to allow for greater flexibility where services are less able to respond. These temporary changes would be brought in only in the instance that staff numbers were severely adversely affected during the pandemic period and provide some flexibility to help support the continued safe running of services under the Mental Health Act
  • allow NHS providers to delay undertaking the assessment process for NHS continuing healthcare for individuals being discharged from hospital until after the emergency period has ended
  • make changes to the Care Act 2014 in England and the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014 to enable local authorities to prioritise the services they offer in order to ensure the most urgent and serious care needs are met, even if this means not meeting everyone’s assessed needs in full or delaying some assessments. During a pandemic, a lot of people who work in health and social care could be off sick or may need to care for loved ones. This could mean that local authorities, which are responsible for social care, may not be able to do all the things they are usually required to do
Local authorities will still be expected to do as much as they can to comply with their duties to meet needs during this period and these amendments would not remove the duty of care they have towards an individual’s risk of serious neglect or harm.
These powers would only be used if demand pressures and workforce illness during the pandemic meant that local authorities were at imminent risk of failing to fulfil their duties and only last the duration of the emergency. It would ensure that local authorities will continue to be able to deliver the best possible care services during the peak and to protect the lives of the most vulnerable members of society.
Click to expand...



There are some serious ramifications in this bill.
 
Seems like basic commonsense admin stuff really.

Existing powers are probably more severe. e.g. the Secretary of State for Health and magistrates already have the power under the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 to order the demolition of buildings, the seizure and destruction of things, and the detention of persons.
 
bimble said:
srs stuff now. Eastenders is stopping filming. They're going to eek out the already recorded episodes by spacing them out "to make them last for as long as possible".
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I can help out by writing some scripts for them.

-Ere, Terry, wotchoo doin wiv my wife?
-Fack you Barry, you facking slag.
-Ee's not Barry, ee's Barry's evil twin Gary.
-And you can fack off an' all Sheila. Gawd strike a light.
-Roight that's the last facking straw. Ah'm leaving you and shacking up wiv your bruvver.
-Jellied eels! Getcher jellied eels!

...etc.
 
Athos said:
I don't know why they don't just ask all parents who don't work in NHS (or other crucial roles) to keep their kids off school; NHS workers' kids could go in, and be looked after by a reduced number of staff (which is inevitable as more get I'll or self-isolate). Seems like the least bad option.
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That's great idea.
 
Athos said:
I don't know why they don't just ask all parents who don't work in NHS (or other crucial roles) to keep their kids off school; NHS workers' kids could go in, and be looked after by a reduced number of staff (which is inevitable as more get I'll or self-isolate). Seems like the least bad option.
Click to expand...

Makes sense to designate certain schools, with central-ish locations, to stay open with a full complement of staff for critical workers' kids rather than keep one or two teachers on in every school. This won't work out in the countryside of course, but in towns and cities it might.

My housemate works at the pupil referral unit. They're closing on Friday but will be providing a full-ish set of lessons online.
 
bimble said:
srs stuff now. Eastenders is stopping filming. They're going to eek out the already recorded episodes by spacing them out "to make them last for as long as possible".
Click to expand...
It really is the apocalypse, isn’t it?

  • Do you remember your Dad?
  • No, he died before the soaps stopped airing.
  • Was that before or after the last general died?
  • According to the stories it was just after YouTube went down.
  • Draw me a meme, son.
  • OK mum. I’ll burn a twig for charcoal.
 
Seems like a lot of schools will be closed by the end of the week, but on their own initiative and with little if anything in the way of central planning.

They also face the prospect of being legally required to re-open in the near future. Which is batshit insane, even at a time when we're all pretty much knee-deep in bat shit.
 
bimble said:
MadeInBedlam have you seen this ? The mental health stuff is quite something.
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yeah

obviously I’m not relaxed, but the ‘only one s12’ Doctor rule might not make much difference to those being assessed under the MHA - the MHA legislationand the MHA Code of practice is routinely breached, doctors/AMHPs rarely disagree on whether to detain or not. I mean it wasn’t exactly trial by your peers before this.

What losing me a lot of sleep is the conditions on the wards themselves. They are disgusting, violent, chaotic places. Will they be kept clean? How will those who are suicidal/severely unwell be kept safe from themselves (eg self harm, non-existent self care etc)? How will they be kept safe from each other? Or from the staff?

this will be the end of informal mental health admissions. If you’re not mental enough to be sectioned you’ll be nowhere near an inpatient ward.
 
They’ll be a lot of people detained (without limit) with NO ONE to advocate for them. A lot of people with no family, no community support. There won’t be any IMHAs.
 
Fuck it I’m going to have to work on a ward.

I need to focus on myself at the moment (going mad, family are very concerned about me ‘having one of my turns’*). At the moment I’m focusing on making sure they know that I’m ok (which for me does mean demonstrating to them I’m on top of medication, daily routines, self-care etc).

I’m leaving my phone with my family for periods during the day. I’m receiving a lot of calls/messages from terrified friends.

when I’m sorted and they know I’m sorted I’ll find out where I’m needed, then I’ll go there.
 
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