Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Buddy Bradley]

I wonder if Boris and co will just try to go for a Sweden approach now and go 'Welllll, it worked OKish there' (obviously jury is out on that)

Interestingly Sweden don't appear to have the same second-wave rise that a lot of western European countries are currently experiencing (although that could be because they're not testing particularly widely, I have no idea).

 

[editor]

i've been taking vitamin d pills since around march having read something that sounded convincing. No idea if thats why I'm not dead yet though.

Me too!

 

[editor]

I can almost feel that 10pm pub closing time coming up next week.

But when people are still ramming on to tube, idiots aren't wearing masks on crowded buses, and people are compelled to travel to busy workplaces, I can't see the virus going anywhere soon.

And then you have animals like this: NHS worker knocked out and stamped on after moving away from man without mask

 

[Cloo]

So our synagogue ran an online Rosh Hashanah service (keeping it halachic by starting the equipment running yesterday evening so nothing had to be actually operated today) - I'll confess I cried when they got to the Unetaneh Tokef prayer and there's the bit about 'On Rosh Hashanah will be inscribed and on Yom Kippur will be sealed – how many will pass from the earth and how many will be created; who will live and who will die; who will die after a long life and who before his time'

 

[20Bees]

Bulk buy loo roll time?

We had a customer yesterday buying 4x packs of 16 loo rolls. A lot of customers are buying one of each type of flour. I guess they still have pasta, rice and tinned soup from the March madness

 

[Wilf]

Drugpiling

My partner is trying to sell the house and was keen that I put my weed out of the way when a buyer came round. I duly put it in the garage. 24 hours later it had gone: 'oh, that silver paper? I chucked it and the bins were collected this morning'.

I'll be entering the second lockdown with no more than my prescription meds and a couple of lagers.

 

[Wilf]

I don't think that the recent "Rule of Six" and local / regional lockdowns are going to be sufficient to control the infection rates, if schools, workplaces and pubs are all still open as well.

I agree that it won't be enough, particularly because you can't put the genie back in the bottle in the sense that more and more people are breaching social distancing in more and more everyday ways. I suspect they will drift towards a position of 'keep work, schools and shops open, but close everything else'. But ultimately it won't work, you can't control a pandemic if the economy and education sector remain open. One of the key contradictions will be that less than a fortnight ago the message was 'get the fuck into work', with whispered threats if you don't. Can the government pirouette and get the maximum number working from home again? Their actions are not just constrained by their ideology, they genuinely haven't got a plan.

 

[TopCat]

My partner is trying to sell the house and was keen that I put my weed out of the way when a buyer came round. I duly put it in the garage. 24 hours later it had gone: 'oh, that silver paper? I chucked it and the bins were collected this morning'.

I'll be entering the second lockdown with no more than my prescription meds and a couple of lagers.

Divorce?

 

[TopCat]

AND THERE WAS NEVER A SUGGESTION THAT WE'D RUN OUT OF LOO PAPER, THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN AT BREXIT!!!!

Ow!

 

[quimcunx]

I really don't get panic buying this time round - first time there was a shade of 'but what if they have to shut down everything and we have to live off government deliveries of spam and condensed milk' but now we know that shops will stay open and that the only shortages were caused by people over buying shit.

Also would question that photo but other than that this time people are starting to 'panic buy' earlier to avoid the rush and it's going to be winter and brexit is coming...

And the panic buying was a bit of a myth. People needed more toilet paper etc because they were going to be home all day making all their own meals etc. Most people were just wanting a bit extra. Multiply that by 65m people ut adds up.

Meanwhile am doing the monthly online shop and that will suffice for stockpiling. I do think it's not necessarily everyone going bonkers. Like if we have to isolate for a fortnight I previously would not have had enough loo roll in.

 

[Cloo]

We'll have family and friends able to buy for us if we have to quarantine, but I think I've got a couple of giant pasta bags, some big bags of frozen veg/fruit, tinned toms, tuna, various sauces and grains which I'd now break into if we couldn't go out. We never bought extra loo roll at supermarket, but we've been buying it in big packs from Costco for the last year.

 

[Cloo]

I'll guess I'll ask my brother about that, seeing as he's head of the mayor's team on coronavirus response!

Word from him is that Khan wanted ideally to be able to start a wider shut down this weekend, but his powers are a bit limited and they have reason to expect an escalation from central government next week.

 

[brogdale]

Word from him is that Khan wanted ideally to be able to start a wider shut down this weekend, but his powers are a bit limited and they have reason to expect an escalation from central government next week.

Yes, the 7+ day delay should be enough to ensure that Johnson's tories achieve another 60k dead peak.

 

[two sheds]

This makes sense, what with the government wanting to press people back into schools and offices.

Hands, face, space? Johnson's Covid message has got priorities wrong, scientists warn

‘Space’ is most important factor in containing spread of coronavirus and should be listed first, say experts

www.theguardian.com

The latest drive to help halt the spread of Covid-19 has been criticised by senior scientists for placing insufficient emphasis on the issues of ventilation and the need to stay apart from others.

They say the government’s “hands, face, space” campaign stresses handwashing and the wearing of masks as key factors in controlling coronavirus transmission, while the need to keep apart has been downplayed, despite it being the single critical factor involved in the spread of Covid-19.

“As long as people keep emphasising handwashing over aerosol transmission and ventilation, you are not going to control this pandemic,” virologist Julian Tang, of Leicester Royal Infirmary, told the Observer.

He pointed to studies that suggest contact is the cause of transmission of the Covid-19 virus in only about 20% of cases while aerosol transmission, often in poorly ventilated rooms, accounted for the rest.

 

[two sheds]

And is this true? I've only seen it on Squawkbox:

Exclusive: 1,251 schools now hit – and many more prevented from reporting or acting on outbreaks

Withheld testing preventing confirmation of many outbreaks, yet numbers rocket anyway The number of schools known to have been hit by coronavirus outbreaks since they re-opened this month (in Engla…

skwawkbox.org

The number of schools known to have been hit by coronavirus outbreaks since they re-opened this month (in England and Wales) or 2-3 weeks earlier (in Scotland and Northern Ireland) continues to soar and has now reached at least 1,251* – up from 1,118 just yesterday.

But the real figure is far higher, as more and more schools are being told to isolate individuals or small groups but otherwise to carry on as normal and not to declare an outbreak or isolate whole ‘bubbles’ or year groups. The National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT) estimates that four out of five schools have children isolating with suspected coronavirus – that’s around 26,000 schools with confirmed or likely infections.

 

[sheothebudworths]

And is this true? I've only seen it on Squawkbox:

Exclusive: 1,251 schools now hit – and many more prevented from reporting or acting on outbreaks

Withheld testing preventing confirmation of many outbreaks, yet numbers rocket anyway The number of schools known to have been hit by coronavirus outbreaks since they re-opened this month (in Engla…

skwawkbox.org

It's certainly true that unconfirmed cases won't be publicised (even within the school community) and that'd make a little more sense if testing was working as efficiently as it needs to be but it's not so, yes, the numbers are going to be much higher and we can't, reasonably, even guess at them in the meantime.

Then there's the other bit of news you posted from today - the surprising news that, actually, SD is extremely important - but it's all fine, cos schools are 'covid-secure'.

 

[sheothebudworths]

There's the other stuff in that skwawkbox article, too, alluding to the fact that tests are being deliberately withheld from children (with confirmation from 'insiders' - although I think that's too vague to be helpful).
I don't imagine for a minute that that's not happening (I mean I don't write off anything, atm) but you can imagine the explanations there, too - tests/labs being prioritised for areas with high outbreaks/people at higher risk blah blah blah.
None of this is resolved when the testing remains fucked - but they'll insist on sticking with schools staying open - it's just disasterous. Months they've had - months. Nothing learned.
It sounds like we may have more changes (next week?) but fuck knows what the impact of school reopenings has already been, let alone what'll happen next, while they just keep idly coasting through anf throwing more and more money into 'proving' that private companies are better equipped to deal with it all than actual expertise.

 

[Supine]

It's astoundingly stupid that tests aren't prescribed via doctors to ensure those in real need get the test. The conservative belief that setting up private limited companies to do the government's grunt work uterly sucks.

 

[sheothebudworths]

So then.

Hospitals in England may have to pay for their Covid-19 tests

Department of Health places ‘budget cap’ on money available for testing patients and staff

www.theguardian.com

 

[Cloo]

I'm wondering about how there'll be lots of small changes that may remain permanent things after this - was just looking at a piece about people's cancelled weddings not being insured and wondering whether, during this they might start letting celebrants marry people anywhere so they can have home/outdoor ceremonies more easily (in fact I think this might already be a thing they've introduced, but can't find where I think I read it) - because there's going to be a huge backlog of people who couldn't get hitched, a lot of venues permanently shut and it would help a lot to allow people to get married. Then it would probably stay being a thing.

 

[sheothebudworths]

I'm wondering about how there'll be lots of small changes that may remain permanent things after this - was just looking at a piece about people's cancelled weddings not being insured and wondering whether, during this they might start letting celebrants marry people anywhere so they can have home/outdoor ceremonies more easily (in fact I think this might already be a thing they've introduced, but can't find where I think I read it) - because there's going to be a huge backlog of people who couldn't get hitched, a lot of venues permanently shut and it would help a lot to allow people to get married. Then it would probably stay being a thing.

I dunno about weddings, but I don't doubt all the shit stuff will stay in place.

 

[SpookyFrank]

So then.

Hospitals in England may have to pay for their Covid-19 tests

Department of Health places ‘budget cap’ on money available for testing patients and staff

www.theguardian.com

Late capitalism grows later by the day.

 

[HalloweenJack]

Looking at the attached graphs, I wonder what your thoughts are.
Where before the death rate curve reflected directly the infection rate in early spring, but that does not seem to be the case now,
Can someone elaborate to this layman why the parabola has become an elipse?
Is

 

[weepiper]

Looking at the attached graphs, I wonder what your thoughts are.
Where before the death rate curve reflected directly the infection rate in early spring, but that does not seem to be the case now,
Can someone elaborate to this layman why the parabola has become an elipse?
Is View attachment 230986

Lots more people are being tested now than were in the spring so the spring numbers are a bigger underestimate of the reality. Also the death rate hasn't caught up with the infection rate yet.

 

[MrSki]

Also the 28 day cut off from first test. If you are on a ventilator for 29 days it doesn't count in the figures. (I think)

 

[quimcunx]

Looking at the attached graphs, I wonder what your thoughts are.
Where before the death rate curve reflected directly the infection rate in early spring, but that does not seem to be the case now,
Can someone elaborate to this layman why the parabola has become an elipse?
Is View attachment 230986

Could be several things. As weepiper says more tests and lag between infections and deaths. Could be young people accounting for more cases. Improved treatment. Summer weather leading to milder cases.

 

[weepiper]

Also increased mask wearing is apparently leading to less serious cases because it reduces the viral load at exposure.

 

[MrSpikey]

Bulk buy loo roll time?

When will people wake up and realise - THAT'S WHAT THEY WANT YOU TO DO!

 

[elbows]

Lots more people are being tested now than were in the spring so the spring numbers are a bigger underestimate of the reality. Also the death rate hasn't caught up with the infection rate yet.

Exactly. And its a big difference.

By March 16th, even this government had realised that they had messed up the timing and very bad stuff was very close, and that their plan A was only fit for the bin. By that date the UK had only managed to find just over 1500 cases in total, and had been detecting well under 100 cases per day until March 12th. This was a terribly inaccurate picture and in reality there were already a very large number of infections, and they knew it even though that data can never show it because the testing regime was feeble.

We are not thought to be back to that level of infection now, we are still some weeks away from that. For example Neil Ferguson has been saying that now we are probably 2-4 weeks away from being back up to the equivalent number of infections as we had in mid-March. If they wait till it gets back to that level again then they will have to resort to the sort of lockdown they dont want to have to do, so they have to do something sooner. Actions that hopefully mean we wont actually reach the equivalent to mid March point again. Or at least that if we do, things will be slowed down so that it takes longer than 2-4 weeks to get there. And then if it does get there the doubling time is made far longer than it was in the first wave, so things like hospital admissions dont increase at the same rate we saw that time. I am not complacent about whether they will actually do the right things at the right time to get that result, but even if they half arse it the timing should change further, so that 2-4 weeks away from mid March thing is not a fixed estimate.

 

[Wilf]

Also increased mask wearing is apparently leading to less serious cases because it reduces the viral load at exposure.

Hadn't thought of/realised that. Yet another reason that anti-mask/vacc twats should be given (very) short shrift.