Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[StoneRoad]

That's my gut feeling too, but I'm assuming that the reason why that doesn't happen is there's some modelling that shows a warning before implmentation increases compliance in the longer term, which I can see being the case tbh. When some measures have been announced suddenly, people moan about that like fuck and say they wanted a warning.

Yes, some warning is useful, I agree.
But not over a weekend - too much opportunity for the 20 - 35 year olds to go and get legless.
Alcohol reduces inhibitions so encourages what sober people would see as recklessness. I predict that will show up as little or no social distancing / wearing masks.

The problem is that the relaxations from lockdown are also risking breakdown of the social distancing & mask wearing habits.
As I see it, we shouldn't have all three of
a) people back in the office/workplace
b) schools & universities back
and c) pubs & hospitality.
Perhaps two out of three might work, but I doubt it.

I still think the relaxations came too fast and there were too many, before the affects of any one change could be seen.

 

[platinumsage]

I just sunbathed through furlough and I start vit D supplements every September anyway.

You might want to start later and finish later e.g. December to May. Your levels will be at their peak now but will take time to go up when the sun comes back.

 

[StoneRoad]

It'll be downhill from now until March. At what point it becomes suboptimal will vary with the individual.

That seems to correspond with the tan fade rate ...

Well, I got a bit more tan today - I've even sunbathed on New Year's Day in Northumberland (I must be mad).

If all else fails, I've got a sunbed ...

 

[bimble]

StoneRoad you have a sunbed in your home are you joking?

 

[maomao]

You might want to start later and finish later e.g. December to May. Your levels will be at their peak now but will take time to go up when the sun comes back.

Yeah but in March it was nice and I could spend three hours a day outside whereas I've spent most days since mid July studying in a NW facing room where I have to draw the curtains at 3pm. I don't usually stop till I've had a couple of good sessions in the sun too.

 

[SlideshowBob]

4322 new cases today. Up 1100 on yesterday.

Full second lockdown feeling more and more inevitable now. Local measures seem to help ever so slightly but dunno if they're doing enough to completely nullify the virus, which is what we realistically need.

 

[MrSki]

Birmingham's Nightingale hospital put back on high alert.

 

[MrSki]

Interesting tweet showing deaths at 28 day cut off, 60 day cut off & no cut off.

 

[elbows]

The problem is that the relaxations from lockdown are also risking breakdown of the social distancing & mask wearing habits.
As I see it, we shouldn't have all three of
a) people back in the office/workplace
b) schools & universities back
and c) pubs & hospitality.
Perhaps two out of three might work, but I doubt it.

I still think the relaxations came too fast and there were too many, before the affects of any one change could be seen.

There are various documents from government scientific advisors which made it quite clear months ago that they thought some things might need to be tightened before schools reopened, in order to actually create 'room' (in terms of number of infections) to allow the school reopening agenda to proceed in full.

As it turned out the government listened to that advice as little as possible, and it looks quite a lot like the other relaxations caused this swelling of cases before the impact of schools reopening even got a chance to contribute to the increase.

 

[SlideshowBob]

The current increases we've seen from schools reopening will likely only get worse as universities return. And no doubt government figures will start heaping blame onto the students. Very predictable.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Not sure what the video shows but I've seen vitamin D recommended from good sources. I'm taking supplements into winter certainly.

Yeah vitamin D had a good press at the start of lockdown and it’s why I think the disease hasn’t been to deadly last couple of months even if still infectious.

 

[sheothebudworths]

Interesting tweet showing deaths at 28 day cut off, 60 day cut off & no cut off.

All of the 'summary' healthcare numbers are wrong, as todays numbers - the numbers showing there are from whenver all four nations last reported (the 7th for 'patients admitted', the 16th for 'patients in hospital' and the 17th for 'patients on mechanical ventilation'). Figures for England have been updated for all three categories except 'patients admitted' (last updated on the 16th) and they are all rising.

 

[two sheds]

Yeah vitamin D had a good press at the start of lockdown and it’s why I think the disease hasn’t been to deadly last couple of months even if still infectious.

that would be very interesting if true

 

[Artaxerxes]

that would be very interesting if true

I don’t think it’s the sole reason but certainly think it’s a factor.

 

[Wilf]

We've just missed out on further restrictions (Teesside), though they've got them further north, along with all the restrictions in Lancs, Greater Manchester and Yorkshire. Whether it's the rule of 6, can't go and meet people in Durham, right through to semi lockdowns in October, the detail has become irrelevant. The Government have lost control, particularly with test and trace and what will be will be.

So much fucks me off about this, not least the thousands of people who johnson's ideological incompetence killed in May/June. But here we are now, still pretending that universities can teach on campus as new cases increase and the R number is above 1. And similar things in other sectors. \just a complete inability to pull out of things they know will speed up the increase and, ultimately, kill people.

 

[sheothebudworths]

I've left in the last line of each (so the bottom line of each table = the totals published in today's healthcare summary). Basically if there's any N/A data, from any nation, the total for that day is not used - but the numbers are still rising, significantly.

Patients admitted to hospital
Daily and cumulative numbers of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital. Data are not updated every day by all four nations and the figures are not comparable as Wales include suspected COVID-19 patients while the other nations include only confirmed cases.
Click to display contentDailyClick to display contentCumulativeClick to display contentDataClick to display contentAbout
Data
Showing a table of the data

Date	England daily	Northern Ireland daily	Scotland daily	Wales daily	England total	Northern Ireland total	Scotland total	Wales total
16-09-2020	183	0	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	65	115,646	1,625	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,938
15-09-2020	194	2	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	53	115,463	1,625	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,873
14-09-2020	172	5	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	59	115,269	1,623	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,820
13-09-2020	153	1	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	55	115,097	1,618	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,761
12-09-2020	143	3	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	55	114,944	1,617	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,706
11-09-2020	135	2	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	70	114,801	1,614	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,651
10-09-2020	143	3	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	49	114,666	1,612	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,581
09-09-2020	136	0	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	56	114,523	1,609	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,532
08-09-2020	99	5	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	65	114,387	1,609	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,476
07-09-2020	84	1	3	46	114,288	1,604	6,023	14,411

Patients in hospital
By nation
UK total
Daily count of confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospital at midnight the preceding night. Data from the four nations may not be directly comparable as data about COVID-19 patients in hospitals are collected differently. Data are not reported by each nation every day. The UK figure is the sum of the four nations' figures and can only be calculated when all nations' data are available.
Click to display contentDailyClick to display contentDataClick to display contentAbout
Data
Showing a table of the data

Date	England daily	Northern Ireland daily	Scotland daily	Wales daily
18-09-2020	988	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	N/AData not currently available for this metric.
17-09-2020	953	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	52	55
16-09-2020	894	21	51	5

Patients in mechanical ventilation beds
By nation
UK total
Confirmed COVID-19 patients in mechanical ventilation beds. Data from the four nations may not be directly comparable as data about COVID-19 patients in hospitals are collected differently. Data are not reported by each nation every day and England data are not available before 2 April. The UK figure is the sum of the four nations' figures and can only be calculated when all nations' data are available.
Click to display contentDailyClick to display contentDataClick to display contentAbout
Data
Showing a table of the data

Date	England daily	Northern Ireland daily	Scotland daily	Wales daily
18-09-2020	115	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	N/AData not currently available for this metric.
17-09-2020	108	3	5	11

 

[LDC]

Today’s Independent Sage briefing.

Not always that keen on Independent SAGE, this one is worth a watch. Depressing and frustrating watching leaving me with the feeling we're a bit fucked.

 

[elbows]

I don’t think it’s the sole reason but certainly think it’s a factor.

We should look at these other possible factors like vitamin D.

But I do think they need to be placed in context in order to not receive unfairly prominent billing.

The largest and most obvious reason for the chance in deaths is the vast change in number of cases. For example the following estimates from zoe covid showing number of symptomatic cases at any one time.


and then compare that to the more recent period. The numbers were very different over the summer to what they were estimated to be during the first peak that caused most of the death so far, so much lower.



Then we need to consider the other consequences of that drop. Because its not just the obvious stuff such as the less people catching it the less death we would expect. Its also because lower number of cases changes the picture in all sorts of scenarios Including scenarios that we suspect are responsible for a significant proportion of the deaths - hospital infections and spread to care homes. When the number of infections drops then there is far more room, including literal room (less overcrowding) to deal with infection control in these settings.

For these and other reasons including quality and rationing of treatment, how overstretched staff are etc, deaths are amplified during the worst moments on the curve, and are diminished when we are at trough rather than peak points, beyond what the straightforward correlation between case numbers and deaths would explain.

 

[LDC]

Yeah, Vit D might be a factor, but if it is it's a minuscule one compared to other variables.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Yeah, Vit D might be a factor, but if it is it's a minuscule one compared to other variables.

I mostly think it’s decent for improving your immune system and fighting it off.

It’s not going to prevent anything but it’ll give you a bit more chance against it.

 

[SlideshowBob]

I'd imagine the primary reason deaths are lower - above all else - is because more younger people are catching it now than at the start, when it was care homes that are being devastated.

We'll likely see the death figures creeping up in weeks to come anyway though, since the young who currently are infected will inevitably have been spreading it to older residents who are more vulnerable. Hopefully though, the death peaks won't be as bad as before if lessons are learned from the care homes debacle.

Although knowing the current government, they'll no doubt find a way to repeat the same mistakes they made there before too.

 

[sheothebudworths]

Not always that keen on Independent SAGE, this one is worth a watch. Depressing and frustrating watching leaving me with the feeling we're a bit fucked.

Out of interest, why not?

 

[Cloo]

Although knowing the current government, they'll no doubt find a way to repeat the same mistakes they made there before too.

I don't get the impression they've got any better a strategy for care homes than previously, ie no visitors. I don't know if they've done anything about the numbers of bank staff working at multiple location and the fact the zero hours staff won't get shit if they can't come into work etc.

 

[elbows]

I'd imagine the primary reason deaths are lower - above all else - is because more younger people are catching it now than at the start, when it was care homes that are being devastated.

We'll likely see the death figures creeping up in weeks to come anyway though, since the young who currently are infected will inevitably have been spreading it to older residents who are more vulnerable. Hopefully though, the death peaks won't be as bad as before if lessons are learned from the care homes debacle.

Although knowing the current government, they'll no doubt find a way to repeat the same mistakes they made there before too.

One of the key problems is that even if they sorted out aspects of the care home situation, its the capacity and resources of the NHS that leads officialdom not to do one of the things that people like Jonathan Van Tam acknowledge countries that have done well in the pandemic have done.

Its only been days since I posted this extract from a June 10th NERVTAG document but as its the easiest way to make my point I hope nobody minds that I am repeating this already:


(from Box )

I dont know what decisions have been made in this regard since, but if they are planning to go through this winter without trying to make structural changes to the NHS, keeping Covid-19 hospital patients and staff away from other patients and staff, then it will be hard for this massively important side of the pandemic to be dealt with better this time around, and indeed winter pressures could easily make this side of things worse than what we saw in the first wave.

It wouldnt be easy at all for the NHS to manage that, so some of the contemporary failures of current governemtn to control this pandemic and reduce death are actually a story of political failure and crap funding priorities going back decades.

 

[SlideshowBob]

I don't get the impression they've got any better a strategy for care homes than previously, ie no visitors. I don't know if they've done anything about the numbers of bank staff working at multiple location and the fact the zero hours staff won't get shit if they can't come into work etc.

Think one of the main problems - certainly in Scotland anyway - was the large number of hospital patients being discharged into hospital without proper testing. You'd hope the government will be better-placed to cope with that now, but far from being guaranteed.

 

[LDC]

Out of interest, why not?

I find the format a bit annoying and unprofessional, and the content sometimes a bit too ranty and piecemeal. And they still have some of that patronizing air to public questions.

 

[elbows]

And its a key pandemic angle that has not been well addressed by press coverage so far. Instead we are reduced to simple tales of protecting our NHS, loving our NHS workers, etc, which is understandable and fair enough on some levels, but a total smokescreen on others.

 

[sheothebudworths]

I'd imagine the primary reason deaths are lower - above all else - is because more younger people are catching it now than at the start, when it was care homes that are being devastated.

We'll likely see the death figures creeping up in weeks to come anyway though, since the young who currently are infected will inevitably have been spreading it to older residents who are more vulnerable. Hopefully though, the death peaks won't be as bad as before if lessons are learned from the care homes debacle.

Although knowing the current government, they'll no doubt find a way to repeat the same mistakes they made there before too.

It doesn't look like lessons have been learnt there - there's been some very recent stuff in the news about the increase of testing, which was promised to care homes as a priority, still not coming through (iirc that was supposed to be sorted for July and then for, literally, last week?) and now, with the recent total fuck up in testing, care homes are not getting results back quickly (if they even get them) and as a result they are still working while they wait and cases are spreading in care homes again. They need to have adequate supplies of tests - and fast results - it's an absolute disgrace that they are back to this point again.

 

[SlideshowBob]

It doesn't look like lessons have been learnt there - there's been some very recent stuff in the news about the increase of testing, which was promised to care homes as a priority, still not coming through (iirc that was supposed to be sorted for July and then for, literally, last week?) and now, with the recent total fuck up in testing, care homes are not getting results back quickly (if they even get them) and as a result they are still working while they wait and cases are spreading in care homes again. They need to have adequate supplies of tests - and fast results - it's an absolute disgrace that they are back to this point again.

Government strategy primarily seemed to hinge upon the idea that this would just go away, or if it didn't then it at least wouldn't be anywhere near as serious as the first time to warrant severe restrictions again. As you say it's disgraceful there were no contingency plans in place for a proper second wave which it looks like we've hit now.

 

[elbows]

It doesn't look like lessons have been learnt there - there's been some very recent stuff in the news about the increase of testing, which was promised to care homes as a priority, still not coming through (iirc that was supposed to be sorted for July and then for, literally, last week?) and now, with the recent total fuck up in testing, care homes are not getting results back quickly (if they even get them) and as a result they are still working while they wait and cases are spreading in care homes again. They need to have adequate supplies of tests - and fast results - it's an absolute disgrace that they are back to this point again.

They have learnt the lessons about bank staff having the potential to transmit infection between multiple care homes, and announced funding to address some of that this week.

But this is one of those lessons it is hard to believe were not well known long before this pandemic actually happened. And there is obviously quite a difference between announcing stuff and chucking some money at a problem and actually getting the right results.