StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
I think that when these extra restrictions are announced, they should be implemented asap and within 24hrs at the most. Waiting until after a weekend is bloody ridiculous.
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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
elbows
Well-Known Member
I have seen signs in recent weeks that the opposite issue to what happened in March may be happening in peoples minds in regards London.
I complained that in March the government told Londoners that they were ahead of the rest of the country in the pandemic, and that they should pay special attention to the advice and measures.
This was fair enough in some ways, and London was a bit ahead, but the problem was that various other places were not really so far behind London, the risks to people in those other places was also high but the government messaging didnt reflect this enough.
Well now we might have the opposite issue. Months of focus on hotspots in the midlands and up north has led to me seeing the occasional comment on this forum that Londoners arent at especially high risk right now. I believe that stance is not appropriate, its weeks out of date.
I complained that in March the government told Londoners that they were ahead of the rest of the country in the pandemic, and that they should pay special attention to the advice and measures.
This was fair enough in some ways, and London was a bit ahead, but the problem was that various other places were not really so far behind London, the risks to people in those other places was also high but the government messaging didnt reflect this enough.
Well now we might have the opposite issue. Months of focus on hotspots in the midlands and up north has led to me seeing the occasional comment on this forum that Londoners arent at especially high risk right now. I believe that stance is not appropriate, its weeks out of date.
Coronavirus: 'Widespread virus growth across the country'
The R number has risen to between 1.1 and 1.4 as officials warn of "far worse things to come".
www.bbc.co.uk
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
That's my gut feeling too, but I'm assuming that the reason why that doesn't happen is there's some modelling that shows a warning before implementation increases compliance in the longer term, which I can see being the case tbh. When some measures have been announced suddenly, people moan about that like fuck and say they wanted a warning.
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Fez909
toilet expert
By my calculations, over ONE BILLION brits will have coronavirus on Christmas day
18/09/2020 | 69,687 |
25/09/2020 | 139,374 |
02/10/2020 | 278,748 |
09/10/2020 | 557,496 |
16/10/2020 | 1,114,992 |
23/10/2020 | 2,229,984 |
30/10/2020 | 4,459,968 |
06/11/2020 | 8,919,936 |
13/11/2020 | 17,839,872 |
20/11/2020 | 35,679,744 |
27/11/2020 | 71,359,488 |
04/12/2020 | 142,718,976 |
11/12/2020 | 285,437,952 |
18/12/2020 | 570,875,904 |
25/12/2020 | 1,141,751,808 |
They were talking about a local lockdown a couple of weeks ago and sending letters out to people in the areas affected but doesn't seem to have happened. And obviously the whole testing thing is a complete shambles so who knows what's going on.
Coronavirus: Hackney’s top officials slam government’s ‘shambolic’ system as hundreds turned away from testing centres
Top officials in Hackney have slammed the government’s coronavirus testing system as a shambles, after hundreds of people who needed...
elbows
Well-Known Member
By my calculations, over ONE BILLION brits will have coronavirus on Christmas day
Ha
To be honest I was thinking more of number of daily new infections, but I presume you used number of weekly infections or number of people currently thought to be ill with it instead?
Cloo
Approved by toads
So this week I think that I have heard of more people I know with symptoms (though not all with positive tests) than I did in any week in March/April. It could just be more awareness of symptoms, eg a number of them have got a weird taste in their mouth, and they may yet prove to be mild cases that others actually did have unknowingly earlier in the year. Or it could be that older, vulnerable people have got a much worse load coming…. Or again, that it is getting more infectious, but milder, as some scientists have posited. Thus far people seem to have had it for a few days without feeling especially atrocious, or they may not have got to the cough/chest pain bit yet. 
crossthebreeze
Well-Known Member
The big issue in the North east is that the regulations & guidelines for the local restrictions allow for various types of paid-for childcare - childminders, nannies, nurseries etc - but not informal childcare. Loads of people taken off furlough or told to stop working from home now have to choose between losing income/job or breaking the law. 
elbows
Well-Known Member
And then take that stuff and look at the implications of it. Eg the effects on all sorts of parts of society from the levels of staff absences we may see this winter, especially if there is no viable mass testing system to rule out Covid-19 in all essential workers and allow them to go back to work.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Yesterday I was walking through the oak when saw a group of c.20 young people sat around in group on the grass, probably about 0.5 - 1m apart on average. No masks. Busy chatting etc.
For a moment I reflected upon the Government advice to call the cops in such circumstances, but then I remembered...
...I wasn't in the park I was on campus.
For a moment I reflected upon the Government advice to call the cops in such circumstances, but then I remembered...
...I wasn't in the park I was on campus.
Cloo
Approved by toads
I wondered about that. Haven't seen any reports of protests known to have led to widespread infections
elbows
Well-Known Member
Although much was made of contact tracing, the scientific advisors never expected that the test & trace system and PHE outbreak investigation stuff would actually manage to identify every sort of outbreak scenario and factor properly. For example I'm sure I read papers where they did not think that system would yeild data useful enough to tell them about the role of supermarkets in the spread of the disease. And if they cant figure out supermarkets, I doubt they can figure out what role if any those protests had.
So I have to look at these things in theory rather than expecting to ever have the theory confirmed or rejected by hard evidence.
In theory even if there was a large increased risk of transmission as a result of behaviours linked to the protests, this would be a multiplier of what infection was already there. And since the highest profile of the protests coincided with a period where the rate of infection in the community was rather low, the expected impact would have been relatively low.
Length of time that the riskier behaviours happened for also a factor. Even the most foolish of the Johnson relaxation measures took time to contribute notably to the bigger increases in infection that we are now seeing, and those were measures that tend to affect behaviour all day every day by a rather large number of people.
And if they involve travel restrictions, you need to give people some time to change plans, e.g. to get home.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Taken from an article that also suggests Sturgeon is more in tune with '4 weeks behind France' than the 6 weeks crap someone alerted me to earlier.
Covid in Scotland: Nicola Sturgeon issues warning over tougher rules
The first minister says some "hard but necessary" decisions will need to be taken in the coming days.
www.bbc.co.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm always looking for signs that my sense of timing has not got much worse compared to March, since I dont want to mislead people. There is a sign in the Guardian that my thinking about the October half-term 'circuit breaker' being older advice, older timing rather than the latest state of thinking behind the scenes might be right.
www.theguardian.com
PM considers imposing Covid 'circuit break' across England
Boris Johnson thinking about short-term restrictions that could include closing pubs
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
Anyone seen this YouTube on vitamin D? It sounds too good to be true. But is it?
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
We get Vitamin D from sunlight, right? So presumably sunny countries like Spain and Italy will have comparatively easier times of it during the Pandemic, right?
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
No, not if people don't strip off and sunbathe. Older people in those two countries tend to avoid the sun, and there are actually high deficiency levels there.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Fair enough. Was being tongue in cheek anyway.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
If you’ve got the time to watch the youtube you’ll see that the latest vitamin d trials are actually from Spain. There are problems with the size of the tests, but it seems to be very impressive.
maomao
普費斯
I just sunbathed through furlough and I start vit D supplements every September anyway.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
It'll be downhill from now until March. At what point it becomes suboptimal will vary with the individual.
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