Leading scientists advising the UK government have proposed a two-week national lockdown in October to try to tackle the rising number of coronavirus cases.
The move highlights how Boris Johnson might come under increasing pressure to introduce a second national lockdown, even though he has said he is strongly against such a measure.
Experts on the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-m) have suggested a national lockdown that could coincide with the October school half-term.
The government is keen to avoid the reclosure of schools, having shut them during the national lockdown in March and only fully reopening them this autumn.
That helps to explain why the government’s scientific advisers have looked at how a two-week national lockdown might coincide with the October half- term as part of efforts to bring Covid-19 under control.
“As schools will be closed for one week at half-term, adding an extra week to that will have limited impact on education,” said one scientist who is a member of Sage, confirming the body had considered the case for a national lockdown in October.
Another scientist who is a member of Spi-m said the body had also looked at a national lockdown that could take place next month.
The number of positive Covid-19 cases is doubling every seven to eight days in England, according to statistical analysis released last Friday by Imperial College London and Ipsos Mori.
The analysis estimated the reproduction rate of the virus, or the R, the average number of new cases generated by an infected person, stood at 1.7, meaning the disease is spreading exponentially.
The scientist who sits on Sage said if the R number continued at the same level as currently, it would “break the NHS”, adding that the test-and-trace system was “creaking at the seams”.
On Wednesday, the prime minister told MPs that a second national lockdown would be “disastrous” for the economy. “I don’t want a second national lockdown — I think it would be completely wrong for this country and we are going to do everything in our power to prevent it,” Mr Johnson said.
But much is likely to hinge on whether the government’s new “rule of six” rule — restricting social gatherings to six people — serves to halt the rise in Covid-19 infections. “If it doesn’t work, a whole range of unpalatable options come into view,” said a government official. The official added that at the top of the government there was “a very strong reluctance to go anywhere near another national lockdown”, but said: “There’s a difference between not wanting to go back to another lockdown and having to go back.”
A government spokesperson said: “The government is continuing to closely monitor infection levels and taking decisive action to protect people such as introducing local lockdowns and banning gatherings of groups larger than six. Recommended FT Magazine Will the UK’s love for the NHS survive the pandemic? “Scientific and medical professionals have provided advice throughout the pandemic.” On Thursday, the north-east of England became the latest area of the UK to have a local lockdown imposed on it because of rising Covid-19 infections.
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, held talks last week with Sadiq Khan, London’s mayor, and local council leaders to discuss contingency plans for new restrictions in the capital, but such an outcome is not seen as “inevitable”, according to government insiders. Meanwhile Dido Harding, who heads the government's test-and-trace programme in England, said she “strongly refuted” suggestions that the scheme was failing.
Following widespread reports of people struggling to obtain tests, because of capacity limits at laboratories that process results, Baroness Harding defended herself against accusations that the government had failed to prepare for a predictable surge in demand when children returned to school. She said lab capacity had doubled between the end of May and September and emphasised that this had been done in accordance with information supplied by Sage. “We built our testing capacity plans based on Sage modelling,” said Baroness Harding. After Mr Hancock announced on Tuesday that for the time being certain groups would be prioritised for tests, Baroness Harding said hospital patients would have first call, followed by those in care homes, then NHS workers. [/
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