Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
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Or it could just be done by local authorities, who where they have had a go at it seem to have performed better than the usual outsourcing firms.
But Tory dogma and the chance to fatten up your mates' bank accounts, of course.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Local authorities can do the contact tracing bit better than the centralised crap, at least up to a certain size of outbreak for sure. But the centralised & privatised approach to testing/labs means it is hard for me to judge how well they could have done with the testing part of the picture.
I dont want to rule out options because some of them are now too late to achieve in time, but that might be the case with the testing part of test & trace.
They may also be envisaging an amazon-type company being in charge of a system which is somewhat different in some regards to the test & trace ideas they have tried to promote over summer. They might be thinking of one that has to deal with far more tests with timely results, and far less tracing.
Oh sure, same here - but it's spread, and their sources have got more explicitly far right - previously they'd link to woo sights and general conspiracy ones which were sometimes dodge if you dug... now you're rarely a click away from holocaust denial and gay conversion therapies.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
The worst thing about that article - and it is a disgrace - is that it pretends it wasn't already outsourced and was managed in-house.
Cloo
Banana for scale
I am surprised when some people talk as though a second wave (and maybe more) was anything but inevitable. Certainly this government not having got it's shit together was entirely predictable seeing as they gave no indication that they'd actually planned anything much over the summer other than vaguely intimating they had A Cunning Plan.
Tbh it was contact tracing I was thinking of. I don't know enough about testing to have an opinion, but it's the principle of turning something so important over to a shady outfit like Amazon that really rankles.
Yes, true, and I suppose you could ask what the difference is between a scheme run by Serco and a scheme run by Amazon. But still ... fucking Amazon.
Good attack on all that utter shite
But that's exactly why I was astonished -- and disbelieving really -- about how there were no shops** that I saw in Glastonbury last weekend, which had anything other than of the 'Please wear masks'/'two or three only allowed in this shop at any one time' variety.
**I suppose the 'wear or not -- your choice' signs in a couple of weed-paraphenalia places, was the furthest it went
And from what we saw, nearly everyone seemed to be complying with all the mask-encouragement notices pretty well
I did post earlier upthread about this, it's a real discrepancy down there
Glastonbury town is not at all short of loons/conspiracists/crystal-botherers
, but I suspect a lot of those prefer to talk drivel with other cider-swiggers 
in the pub 
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I've been wondering for some time now, I suppose for a fortnight or so, whether there'll end up being another full (or near-full?) national lockdown?
I'd like to see that FT article in full -- their stuff has a pretty good record all year about 'all this' -- but it's been pretty clear for ages that the Govt has been completely losing it on testing
I'd like to see that FT article in full -- their stuff has a pretty good record all year about 'all this' -- but it's been pretty clear for ages that the Govt has been completely losing it on testing
For now, here's a pretty good attack on why and how the privatised Tory test 'systems' have fucked up big style (apologies if this article has been linked to elsewhere on Urban ) :
England's test and trace is a fiasco because the public sector has been utterly sidelined
) :England's test and trace is a fiasco because the public sector has been utterly sidelined
Aditya Chakrabortty said:
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Call me a hopelessly naive idealist, but I do wonder whether this might be the realm where open/crowdsourcing could have been a valuable approach to the challenge. Much, in a way as you have done with your assembly of sources into useful narratives.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I have a hunch that the FT might have been a bit too vague about the context of the October lockdown suggestion.
I note that they do not provide any indication of when the suggestion was made.
And funnily enough I'm pretty sure I had already read about October 'elongated school holiday' lockdown plans. And if I read it in official documents, that probably means the suggestion is from quite a bit earlier this summer, and not in response to recent events with number of cases, demand for tests, increasing hospital admissions etc.
Let me go and check this hunch.
spitfire
Walty McWaltface
I've been wondering for some time now, I suppose for a fortnight or so, whether there'll end up being another full (or near-full?) national lockdown?
I'd like to see that FT article in full -- their stuff has a pretty good record all year about 'all this' -- but it's been pretty clear for ages that the Govt has been completely losing it on testing
Leading scientists advising the UK government have proposed a two-week national lockdown in October to try to tackle the rising number of coronavirus cases.
The move highlights how Boris Johnson might come under increasing pressure to introduce a second national lockdown, even though he has said he is strongly against such a measure.
Experts on the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-m) have suggested a national lockdown that could coincide with the October school half-term.
The government is keen to avoid the reclosure of schools, having shut them during the national lockdown in March and only fully reopening them this autumn.
That helps to explain why the government’s scientific advisers have looked at how a two-week national lockdown might coincide with the October half- term as part of efforts to bring Covid-19 under control.
“As schools will be closed for one week at half-term, adding an extra week to that will have limited impact on education,” said one scientist who is a member of Sage, confirming the body had considered the case for a national lockdown in October.
Another scientist who is a member of Spi-m said the body had also looked at a national lockdown that could take place next month.
The number of positive Covid-19 cases is doubling every seven to eight days in England, according to statistical analysis released last Friday by Imperial College London and Ipsos Mori.
The analysis estimated the reproduction rate of the virus, or the R, the average number of new cases generated by an infected person, stood at 1.7, meaning the disease is spreading exponentially.
The scientist who sits on Sage said if the R number continued at the same level as currently, it would “break the NHS”, adding that the test-and-trace system was “creaking at the seams”.
On Wednesday, the prime minister told MPs that a second national lockdown would be “disastrous” for the economy. “I don’t want a second national lockdown — I think it would be completely wrong for this country and we are going to do everything in our power to prevent it,” Mr Johnson said.
But much is likely to hinge on whether the government’s new “rule of six” rule — restricting social gatherings to six people — serves to halt the rise in Covid-19 infections. “If it doesn’t work, a whole range of unpalatable options come into view,” said a government official. The official added that at the top of the government there was “a very strong reluctance to go anywhere near another national lockdown”, but said: “There’s a difference between not wanting to go back to another lockdown and having to go back.”
A government spokesperson said: “The government is continuing to closely monitor infection levels and taking decisive action to protect people such as introducing local lockdowns and banning gatherings of groups larger than six. Recommended FT Magazine Will the UK’s love for the NHS survive the pandemic? “Scientific and medical professionals have provided advice throughout the pandemic.” On Thursday, the north-east of England became the latest area of the UK to have a local lockdown imposed on it because of rising Covid-19 infections.
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, held talks last week with Sadiq Khan, London’s mayor, and local council leaders to discuss contingency plans for new restrictions in the capital, but such an outcome is not seen as “inevitable”, according to government insiders. Meanwhile Dido Harding, who heads the government's test-and-trace programme in England, said she “strongly refuted” suggestions that the scheme was failing.
Following widespread reports of people struggling to obtain tests, because of capacity limits at laboratories that process results, Baroness Harding defended herself against accusations that the government had failed to prepare for a predictable surge in demand when children returned to school. She said lab capacity had doubled between the end of May and September and emphasised that this had been done in accordance with information supplied by Sage. “We built our testing capacity plans based on Sage modelling,” said Baroness Harding. After Mr Hancock announced on Tuesday that for the time being certain groups would be prioritised for tests, Baroness Harding said hospital patients would have first call, followed by those in care homes, then NHS workers. [/
spoiler]
The move highlights how Boris Johnson might come under increasing pressure to introduce a second national lockdown, even though he has said he is strongly against such a measure.
Experts on the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-m) have suggested a national lockdown that could coincide with the October school half-term.
The government is keen to avoid the reclosure of schools, having shut them during the national lockdown in March and only fully reopening them this autumn.
That helps to explain why the government’s scientific advisers have looked at how a two-week national lockdown might coincide with the October half- term as part of efforts to bring Covid-19 under control.
“As schools will be closed for one week at half-term, adding an extra week to that will have limited impact on education,” said one scientist who is a member of Sage, confirming the body had considered the case for a national lockdown in October.
Another scientist who is a member of Spi-m said the body had also looked at a national lockdown that could take place next month.
The number of positive Covid-19 cases is doubling every seven to eight days in England, according to statistical analysis released last Friday by Imperial College London and Ipsos Mori.
The analysis estimated the reproduction rate of the virus, or the R, the average number of new cases generated by an infected person, stood at 1.7, meaning the disease is spreading exponentially.
The scientist who sits on Sage said if the R number continued at the same level as currently, it would “break the NHS”, adding that the test-and-trace system was “creaking at the seams”.
On Wednesday, the prime minister told MPs that a second national lockdown would be “disastrous” for the economy. “I don’t want a second national lockdown — I think it would be completely wrong for this country and we are going to do everything in our power to prevent it,” Mr Johnson said.
But much is likely to hinge on whether the government’s new “rule of six” rule — restricting social gatherings to six people — serves to halt the rise in Covid-19 infections. “If it doesn’t work, a whole range of unpalatable options come into view,” said a government official. The official added that at the top of the government there was “a very strong reluctance to go anywhere near another national lockdown”, but said: “There’s a difference between not wanting to go back to another lockdown and having to go back.”
A government spokesperson said: “The government is continuing to closely monitor infection levels and taking decisive action to protect people such as introducing local lockdowns and banning gatherings of groups larger than six. Recommended FT Magazine Will the UK’s love for the NHS survive the pandemic? “Scientific and medical professionals have provided advice throughout the pandemic.” On Thursday, the north-east of England became the latest area of the UK to have a local lockdown imposed on it because of rising Covid-19 infections.
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, held talks last week with Sadiq Khan, London’s mayor, and local council leaders to discuss contingency plans for new restrictions in the capital, but such an outcome is not seen as “inevitable”, according to government insiders. Meanwhile Dido Harding, who heads the government's test-and-trace programme in England, said she “strongly refuted” suggestions that the scheme was failing.
Following widespread reports of people struggling to obtain tests, because of capacity limits at laboratories that process results, Baroness Harding defended herself against accusations that the government had failed to prepare for a predictable surge in demand when children returned to school. She said lab capacity had doubled between the end of May and September and emphasised that this had been done in accordance with information supplied by Sage. “We built our testing capacity plans based on Sage modelling,” said Baroness Harding. After Mr Hancock announced on Tuesday that for the time being certain groups would be prioritised for tests, Baroness Harding said hospital patients would have first call, followed by those in care homes, then NHS workers. [/
spoiler]
Doodler
You're quite nice when you smile
You're right and they could grow in force. At the moment on Question Time two guests including epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta are arguing for herd immunity plus protection for the vulnerable. iirc Gupta's group at Oxford University claimed some months ago that a much larger proportion of the UK population had been infected than anyone else had estimated.
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mx wcfc
Well-Known Member
Have we had this story yet? Nearly 2/3rds of people going back to work? It sounds like bollocks to me - how did they come up with that figure? It's less than 5% roughly at my employer.
Are they counting people who go in once a week? That would be a rubbish stat. Is some daft calculation being spun? I don't believe it.
'Nearly two-thirds' of workers commuting again, says ONS
Some 62% reported commuting to work last week, according to the Office for National Statistics.
www.bbc.co.uk
Are they counting people who go in once a week? That would be a rubbish stat. Is some daft calculation being spun? I don't believe it.
)Care homes again.
www.channel4.com
Revealed: Local authority calls on care home providers to accept covid-positive hospital patients
Channel 4 News has seen a leaked document which calls on care home providers in England to accept patients who are COVID-positive from hospitals. [c4video id=321291] The contract, from Trafford Council in Greater Manchester, outlines how eligible care homes will receive COVID-positive patients...
www.channel4.com
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well I cannot find the papers about October lockdown (extended school holidays) that I'm sure I saw well before that FT article. Anyway I still think its older advice not just because I remember reading it in the past, but also because I dont think that the data for September so far really offers much chance of the situation allowing them to wait till a week before the late October half-term holiday before doing something.
The latest BBC article that makes that Nick Triggle shit I posted the other day seem even more absurd and poorly timed.
The latest BBC article that makes that Nick Triggle shit I posted the other day seem even more absurd and poorly timed.
Covid-19: Tighter national rules considered for England by government
A few weeks of nationwide restrictions to slow a second coronavirus surge could be introduced.
www.bbc.co.uk
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
This reminds me of the plan in March, when they hoped they could hold off on a lockdown until Easter, close the schools a week either side and it'd all be fine. Of course the virus wasn't aware of their timetable, it all went to shit and most schoolkids didn't go back until September.
Have they had a word with Covid-19 and agreed it'll wait a month before spiralling out of control this time?
quimcunx
imprimeo, lamino, distribuo
If this isn't referring to earlier thoughts as elbows suggests then this smacks of them making the same error as at the start. How about acting early instead of delaying to when its more convenient.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Care homes again.
Revealed: Local authority calls on care home providers to accept covid-positive hospital patients
Channel 4 News has seen a leaked document which calls on care home providers in England to accept patients who are COVID-positive from hospitals. [c4video id=321291] The contract, from Trafford Council in Greater Manchester, outlines how eligible care homes will receive COVID-positive patients...
If the slogan for next election isn’t “Boris killed your nan” someone missed a trick.
flypanam
Sausage to fortune
The Irish Times is reporting that due to increased testing the HSE has had to turn down the request from the NHS for tests to analysed in Irish labs. The other thing the article says is that the uk is shutting down ‘swabbing centres’
www.irishtimes.com
HSE turns down request from Britain to process tests in Irish laboratories
HSE chief Paul Reid says UK’s testing and tracing system is ‘in almost collapse’
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
The sharp increase in hospital admissions in the last week is worrying and Dr Christina Pagel, a professor of clinical operational research at University College London, and part of the independent Sage group, makes a very good point about that.
www.mirror.co.uk
Experts explain what's going on with coronavirus and how worried UK should be
Prof Mike Tildesley, an expert in mathematical modelling of infectious disease, and Dr Christina Pagel, a professor of clinical operational research at University College London, predict what comes next with the epidemic
www.mirror.co.uk
I'm in two minds about this. On the one hand, although obviously there's a very serious rise in cases it's very uneven across the country. One thing I've spent far too much time playing with since all this started is the Guardian's map of infections by local authority, from which two screenshots showing how different the situation - as of this morning - is in two northern cities
A full-on lockdown would be overkill in Hull, whereas in Bolton it's vitally necessary, and on that basis local lockdowns seem to be a better solution. However, the problem is going to be people travelling from one area to another and seeding new outbreaks in places where infections are currently very low. My big fear is that the start of the university term is going to do that. One county I keep a close eye on is Devon, because my mum lives in Exeter. ATM the city is pretty safe, but the university is massive and within a week or so students from all over are going to converge on it, and what happens then? That's why I can see the logic of a general lockdown now, to try and get the situation in the hotspots under control and buy time to get the T&T system working again* before people start spreading the virus from the hotspots to the (currently) safer areas of the country. So I agree with you: if it's going to happen it'd be best to do it now.
*Not that this shower of shit of a government are likely to do that no matter how much time they have.
e2a - I've just checked some figures and spotted one significant error in the above: Bolton is rather smaller than I thought it was, and a lot smaller than Hull! I think the points made still stand, though.
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Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
What I don't get at the moment is what is driving these localised spikes. Are we just all agreeing that Geordies, Scousers and Brummies are worse at following the rules than everyone else in the UK? Seems unlikely that human behaviour will differ greatly between parts of the same country.
I suspect that around London and the south-east specifically, the extreme death count of the early pandemic has made people particularly cautious as a whole (even if many individuals are not). Plus there are a lot of people who have been able to work from home, which has thinned out the density of people on public transport and shops and services etc within the city, making those who have to travel for work safer. Then we have the oft-cited reasons around the nature of work in different places and the relative risks associated with different types of workplace
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Probably just random effects play a bigger part than intuition might suggest.
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