Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[sheothebudworths]

The majority sometimes the vast majority of transmission happens in the home and always has done with this virus. The 6 person rule seems totally designed to stop house parties and other big gatherings. They are hoping to as much as is possible to contain the rise in cases without shutting down areas of the economy again. This seems pretty straight forward to me. Whether its the right approach or not time will tell.

I don't think we've had loads of experience of how it transmits in other settings yet, eh - outside of those who were working throughout lockdown - y'know, the health care workers, the bus drivers, supermarket workers?

 

[Teaboy]

I don't think we've had loads of experience of how it transmits in other settings yet, eh - outside of those who were working throughout lockdown - y'know, the health care workers, the bus drivers, supermarket workers?

As far as I can see it's pretty undisputed.

We had the pre-lockdown situation and there is experience from other countries. I've seen estimates of between 60% - 70% of all transmissions take place in the home. It just follows to reason because no one will have any real spread prevention measures in the home because its verging on impossible. This is not to say that other places are safe just that all these house parties and get together are perfect for the virus.

ETA: Another factor in all this is the odd but understandable belief that it's strangers that have and spread the virus not friends and families. I've see variations of this thinking a lot. You'll likely give a stranger in a pub or shop a wide berth but not your sister or mate etc.

 

[LDC]

Highest daily case number since May sometime today, 3,539.

 

[elbows]

The testing figures for England (and Wales), due today, still haven't been updated

They have been updated today on the dashboard.

 

[frogwoman]

3539 new cases

 

[Mr.Bishie]

3539 new cases

And that’s discounting many more folk who aren’t going to travel over 100 miles for a test.

 

[Wilf]

What's the alternative though? Close all the pubs, let people meet in groups of how ever many they want to in doors? The virus still spreads and all those businesses just scraping buy get to go bust.

Yes, you could say, more furlough etc but that's not gonna happen, at least not ATM.

Again, I'm not defending this government but let's not pretend there are easy answers to a lot of this. Track and trace all, that absolutely needs to be funded, run military style no argument. What happened to seweage tests as well.

I think human behaviour and choices are messy, are influenced at the level of community, online and at the national level. Those behaviours are also affected by our experiences in terms of class, ethnicity and plenty of other things. As obvious as that is, I don't think our government have a clue how to affect behaviour beyond national hectoring, some tame expert advice and an economic imperative. Or even more so, they can't imagine a way of governing that would inset itself into people's real lives and expectations. It's always going to be half arsed because they are not equipped to deal with rounded human beings.

 

[Cloo]

I think human behaviour and choices are messy, are influenced at the level of community, online and at the national level. Those behaviours are also affected by our experiences in terms of class, ethnicity and plenty of other things. As obvious as that is, I don't think our government have a clue how to affect behaviour beyond national hectoring, some tame expert advice and an economic imperative. Or even more so, they can't imagine a way of governing that would inset itself into people's real lives and expectations. It's always going to be half arsed because they are not equipped to deal with rounded human beings.

Yes - hurrah for our public school system's moulding of our 'leaders'

 

[sheothebudworths]

As far as I can see it's pretty undisputed.

We had the pre-lockdown situation and there is experience from other countries. I've seen estimates of between 60% - 70% of all transmissions take place in the home. It just follows to reason because no one will have any real spread prevention measures in the home because its verging on impossible. This is not to say that other places are safe just that all these house parties and get together are perfect for the virus.

ETA: Another factor in all this is the odd but understandable belief that it's strangers that have and spread the virus not friends and families. I've see variations of this thinking a lot. You'll likely give a stranger in a pub or shop a wide berth but not your sister or mate etc.

I get that (the last bit) but, re the first bit, I don't feel we have much comparable info in terms of where our figures were when lockdown was eased against, for eg, schools reopening and people being 'encouraged' back to work - and the impact on public transport etc - it's all yet to be seen there. Equally, I dont take loads of comfort from 30 - 40% of transmission taking place elsewhere, either (and again, while lots of that will have been directly impacted by lockdowns, here and elsewhere).
Saying that, I can grasp that where there IS difficulty in the knowledge, a balance has to be struck and gently and cautiously and carefully and cosiderately tested. For me, that is about the risk to people's health - physical and mental - above the rest.
And of course there's a lot that has been spoken about in terms of economic 'revival' too - that it doesn't make economic sense to place health lower down, as the priority, even if you give more of a fuck about the economy (which I don't, tbf).

With some actual governance - with money sent in the right directions - to the NHS, to local authorities, to schools, to properly funding payments to people who must self-isolate, who may just not be able to afford it otherwise (I mean - seriously!) etc etc - I think we could get the balance right - but instead they're pissing about, chortling away, with the Brexit shit and funding their thick mates to do jobs they're completely incapable of, like the bunch of smarmy, entitled children they are.

Chucking £100 billion pounds at some outlandish, egotistical vanity project (even Whitty and Vallance seemed to be making as loud a noise as they ever make over that during the last briefing - around a technology that doesn't exist), over ensuring the safety of the people - that they won't be made homeless, that they won't starve, that they won't die - does not give me any fucking hope that any new rules are based on much more than some wank-fantasy Boris had while he was on his millionth holiday, pretending to camp. It's ridiculous - it's obviously ridiculous!
People are not able to be tested! Right now! WTF?

But yeah - it's all the fault of young people having house parties now.

 

[sheothebudworths]

And that’s discounting many more folk who aren’t going to travel over 100 miles for a test.

Aren't, or can't (don't drive).
Apparently we're being directed to get a ferry to the Isle of Wight here!
No home tests, no walk ins, Amex closed for drive in in August.

 

[wtfftw]

Love you sheothebudworths xx

 

[Teaboy]

I get that (the last bit) but, re the first bit, I don't feel we have much comparable info in terms of where our figures were when lockdown was eased against, for eg, schools reopening and people being 'encouraged' back to work - and the impact on public transport etc - it's all yet to be seen there. Equally, I dont take loads of comfort from 30 - 40% of transmission taking place elsewhere, either (and again, while lots of that will have been directly impacted by lockdowns, here and elsewhere).
Saying that, I can grasp that where there IS difficulty in the knowledge, a balance has to be struck and gently and cautiously and carefully and cosiderately tested. For me, that is about the risk to people's health - physical and mental - above the rest.
And of course there's a lot that has been spoken about in terms of economic 'revival' too - that it doesn't make economic sense to place health lower down, as the priority, even if you give more of a fuck about the economy (which I don't, tbf).

With some actual governance - with money sent in the right directions - to the NHS, to local authorities, to schools, to properly funding payments to people who must self-isolate, who may just not be able to afford it otherwise (I mean - seriously!) etc etc - I think we could get the balance right - but instead they're pissing about, chortling away, with the Brexit shit and funding their thick mates to do jobs they're completely incapable of, like the bunch of smarmy, entitled children they are.

Chucking £100 billion pounds at some outlandish, egotistical vanity project (even Whitty and Vallance seemed to be making as loud a noise as they ever make over that during the last briefing - around a technology that doesn't exist), over ensuring the safety of the people - that they won't be made homeless, that they won't starve, that they won't die - does not give me any fucking hope that any new rules are based on much more than some wank-fantasy Boris had while he was on his millionth holiday, pretending to camp. It's ridiculous - it's obviously ridiculous!
People are not able to be tested! Right now! WTF?

But yeah - it's all the fault of young people having house parties now.

Everything you say is true and the government's total unwillingness to own any of the blame even when their handling of the pandemic has been catastrophic on many levels is insulting to us all.

But... that doesn't mean to say that young people are not a significant factor in the rapidly growing transmission rate. This is not just a England thing its been noted across Europe. I was a funeral on Thursday and was chatting to a couple of my g/f's cousins both from the same home. One is 20 and at uni so has been at home for months now. The other is 18 and in the army and was sent home when it all kicked off. They were basically telling me how their house had been party central for 5 months. I don't blame them I'd be doing the same.

There is a difference between blame and recognising a situation cannot continue.

 

[Wilf]

I get that (the last bit) but, re the first bit, I don't feel we have much comparable info in terms of where our figures were when lockdown was eased against, for eg, schools reopening and people being 'encouraged' back to work - and the impact on public transport etc - it's all yet to be seen there. Equally, I dont take loads of comfort from 30 - 40% of transmission taking place elsewhere, either (and again, while lots of that will have been directly impacted by lockdowns, here and elsewhere).
Saying that, I can grasp that where there IS difficulty in the knowledge, a balance has to be struck and gently and cautiously and carefully and cosiderately tested. For me, that is about the risk to people's health - physical and mental - above the rest.
And of course there's a lot that has been spoken about in terms of economic 'revival' too - that it doesn't make economic sense to place health lower down, as the priority, even if you give more of a fuck about the economy (which I don't, tbf).

With some actual governance - with money sent in the right directions - to the NHS, to local authorities, to schools, to properly funding payments to people who must self-isolate, who may just not be able to afford it otherwise (I mean - seriously!) etc etc - I think we could get the balance right - but instead they're pissing about, chortling away, with the Brexit shit and funding their thick mates to do jobs they're completely incapable of, like the bunch of smarmy, entitled children they are.

Chucking £100 billion pounds at some outlandish, egotistical vanity project (even Whitty and Vallance seemed to be making as loud a noise as they ever make over that during the last briefing - around a technology that doesn't exist), over ensuring the safety of the people - that they won't be made homeless, that they won't starve, that they won't die - does not give me any fucking hope that any new rules are based on much more than some wank-fantasy Boris had while he was on his millionth holiday, pretending to camp. It's ridiculous - it's obviously ridiculous!
People are not able to be tested! Right now! WTF?

But yeah - it's all the fault of young people having house parties now.

This. Very much this.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Aren't, or can't (don't drive).
Apparently we're being directed to get a ferry to the Isle of Wight here!
No home tests, no walk ins, Amex closed for drive in in August.

The Amex site was closed, to allow football to start again, with no replacement organised.

There's due to be a new one opening near Chichester, but that's a trek from Brighton, there's one in Haywards Heath & another at Gatwick, but they both show no appointments available.

So, fuck all for West Sussex, as well as Brighton & Hove. *ETA - And, on checking, East Sussex too.

A West Sussex County Council report has outlined how as the South East region has the lowest incidence of the virus it is a ‘low priority for pillar 2 testing’.

Council officers have warned that without testing of pillar 2 at full capacity they are unable to build up an accurate picture of the number of cases and may not be able to detect any concerning increase in cases at locality level.

They have raised the issue with government but have been told this will possibly take some time to resolve (four to six weeks).

‘Covid testing crisis’ in West Sussex

A West Sussex mum-of-three has spoken about her frustration at not being able to book a Covid test for her nine-year-old son.

www.worthingherald.co.uk

 

[chilango]

And that’s discounting many more folk who aren’t going to travel over 100 miles for a test.

How much of an impact will this be having on the figures? Anyone know?

 

[sheothebudworths]

They have been updated today on the dashboard.

Yes, I saw - thank you for remembering!
Looks like the 7 day average for all pillars has risen by about 15,000 over the last week (189k to 204k) but that was with a significant rise yesterday (18k).
Same goes for Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 testing - a rise yesterday - but nothing that looks like enough of an expansion of testing over the last week, given the increasing numbers (or which would explain them).

A definite rise in patients admitted to hospital (9th is the most recent date there)

Date	England daily	Northern Ireland daily	Scotland daily	Wales daily	England total	Northern Ireland total	Scotland total	Wales total
09-09-2020	136	0	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	56	114,523	1,600	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,532
08-09-2020	99	4	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	65	114,387	1,600	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,476
07-09-2020	84	0	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	46	114,288	1,596	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,411
06-09-2020	85	3	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	42	114,204	1,596	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,365
05-09-2020	94	1	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	27	114,119	1,593	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,323
04-09-2020	67	1	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	69	114,025	1,592	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,296
03-09-2020	69	1	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	70	113,958	1,591	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	14,227

and current confirmed covid cases in hospital -

11-09-2020	600	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	N/AData not currently available for this metric.
10-09-2020	553	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	266	48
09-09-2020	539	13	274	37
08-09-2020	519	16	267	35
07-09-2020	537	15	256	38
06-09-2020	464	17	245	36
05-09-2020	452	15	251	39

UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Aren't, or can't (don't drive).
Apparently we're being directed to get a ferry to the Isle of Wight here!
No home tests, no walk ins, Amex closed for drive in in August.

Withdean atm - but that shuts end of Sept. After that Crawley afaik - who knows.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Withdean atm - but that shuts end of Sept. After that Crawley afaik - who knows.

Well spotted, that seems to have been announced yesterday.

The Amex site was always expected to shut when the football season began. The first match at the stadium was arranged before the start of the season, earlier than originally expected.

• Our first action was to arrange for a temporary mobile testing unit, based at Brighton Racecourse, to stay in place while we found other sites for testing facilities in the city.
• A suitable site at Withdean Sports Complex was quickly found. The council has successfully arranged for a mobile testing unit to be based at Withdean until the end of September.

Update: Covid-19 testing in the region

There are national pressures impacting on the availability of Covid-19 tests around the country. This is the latest Information about how to to book a test or order a home test online.

new.brighton-hove.gov.uk

 

[TopCat]

The daily numbers are grating on my scabbed up anxieties.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

As far as I can see it's pretty undisputed.

We had the pre-lockdown situation and there is experience from other countries. I've seen estimates of between 60% - 70% of all transmissions take place in the home. It just follows to reason because no one will have any real spread prevention measures in the home because its verging on impossible. This is not to say that other places are safe just that all these house parties and get together are perfect for the virus.

ETA: Another factor in all this is the odd but understandable belief that it's strangers that have and spread the virus not friends and families. I've see variations of this thinking a lot. You'll likely give a stranger in a pub or shop a wide berth but not your sister or mate etc.

tbh even with the limited knowledge that is being gained, I think there's also a bit of an illusion (should that be a delusion) of control here. Following the first wave, 'we' didn't have it under control, and it's not particularly 'us' that are losing control now. Never been in control. The things we can control, like masks or big gatherings or one-way systems in shops, we do them because it gives us the sense that we're doing something about it all. But are we making more than a marginal difference with any of it?

 

[Supine]

tbh even with the limited knowledge that is being gained, I think there's also a bit of an illusion (should that be a delusion) of control here. Following the first wave, 'we' didn't have it under control, and it's not particularly 'us' that are losing control now. Never been in control. The things we can control, like masks or big gatherings or one-way systems in shops, we do them because it gives us the sense that we're doing something about it all. But are we making more than a marginal difference with any of it?

The turning of the first wave shows we very much can control it with compliance to mitigating measures. One of the great descriptions from Van Tam:

'It is like having a spring in a box and you have got the lid on. Now you can take the lid off a little but you haven't disconnected the spring or broken the spring in any way.

'If you take the lid right off the spring is still under tension and off it will go again.'

 

[iona]

I've just had an invitation to participate in a Covid infection survey, either weekly tests for a month or monthly tests for a year. Given that I'm going back to the office full-time from next week, and in an environment where outbreaks are pretty likely, I'm minded to sign up. Besides, at a general level surveillance testing like this has to be part of the solution to containing the virus.

My only slight reservation is that IQVIA are running the tests on the ground, and I know little about them beyond what a brief Google has thrown up. If they're some fly-by-night firm that's been handed a fat contract under the 'emergency' regulations then I'm not interested. Anyone know anything about them?

They're even offering payment to take part in this, although in the form of 'vouchers.' I'd like to know a bit more about what these can be used for, since if they're tied to shitty firms like Amazon then they're no use to me.

I'm doing that study. These are the voucher options you get (spoilered coz loads of screenshots). Don't know anything about IQVIA.

Spoiler: Vouchers

They have at least started contacting you to book appointments in advance now. At first (ime at least) they were just phoning weekdays late morning - midday and asking if they could come round some time that afternoon which made it pretty difficult for people who were actually going outside for work etc to ever get tested

 

[elbows]

The turning of the first wave shows we very much can control it with compliance to mitigating measures. One of the great descriptions from Van Tam:

'It is like having a spring in a box and you have got the lid on. Now you can take the lid off a little but you haven't disconnected the spring or broken the spring in any way.

'If you take the lid right off the spring is still under tension and off it will go again.'

This is more a response to littlebabyjesus but as I want to carry on the flow of that conversation I'm quoting you.

How much control a person has depends on their personal circumstances, and which factors are beyond their control.

Even those that doubt how much difference masks make still have control options in the form of some of the other choices they make, for scenarios where they actually have a real choice. They might have little or no control over being forced back to work or issues with children and education, but they may still have control over who they choose to meet socially and some of the indoor locations they choose to frequent.

I hope its not unfair to say that littlebabyjesus was hoping and anticipating that, to carry on the Van Tam analogy, the parameters of the spring had changed in some way unrelated to human control measures. And that the game had therefore changed to an extent that would allow a bit more normality, and less of various measures that littlebabyjesus doesnt believe do very much. And indeed that via things like 'immunological dark matter' the change in spring parameters happened long ago and even that they could have been partly responsible for the end of the first wave (diminishing the role of lockdown in a manner I consider ill-advised).

Aside from acknowledging the things we cant be certain of, such as the exact effects of each lockdown measure and all the unknowns in the immunological picture, and freely acknowledging that I have been hedging my bets to some limited extent this summer, I have tended to be at odds with littlebabyjesus over many details on these fronts during the pandemic so far. I dont want to go over all these areas in detail again now, but maybe it would be useful to somewhat review our feelings and beliefs now that we are entering another phase again. If I try to do this in one post it will be a horrible wall of paragraphs, much worse than this one is already turning out to be, so I'll try to skip some areas for now.

For now I'd say that its combinations of things that change the picture. There are times where the control we have in our own hands is almost enough. There are times when it certainly isnt. There are times where an effective test & trace system can allow a region or nation to avoid having to impose more draconian measures, but there are circumstances where the emergency handbrake is still required, where the more nuanced stuff is never going to be enough. If you could do moonshot-type mass testing as a matter of daily routine then it would change the game but even then the draconian measures would still exist, they would just be of a very different sort, involving adherence to the mass routine testing and all that went with it including a whole bunch of rules. And you still have to be prepared to break out new measures if the data that comes from the mass testing system tells you thats whats required.

I appeal to people not to lose interest in the little things, they can still add up even at times where some parts of the picture look hopeless. Because away from the huge overall numbers we are still talking about a story of individuals being infected, and any time someone does something to break the chain of transmission that is something with consequences for others that has been avoided. So even if something is considered of marginal importance by someone I will be inclined to say so what?, we need to fight this thing on the margins as much as we fight it everywhere else.

Its the same with seasonal issues too by the way. When I go on about how summer didnt give us as much wiggle room as hoped (with Spain and parts of the USA as the most obvious examples), and how the first wave of swine flu was in summer 2009, that doesnt mean that I think the seasonal aspect did nothing at all. After all, I still expect it to get worse in autumn/winter and thats not just because the original lockdown measures are so far behind us (although thats a big chunk of the timing picture for sure). So I still think summer offered some advantages that winter wont, its just the summer advantages werent enough to counter the effects of reopening so much etc. Doesnt mean I'll think of summer as a pointless and marginal factor, so I wont do the same with masks either!

 

[sheothebudworths]

Everything you say is true and the government's total unwillingness to own any of the blame even when their handling of the pandemic has been catastrophic on many levels is insulting to us all.

But... that doesn't mean to say that young people are not a significant factor in the rapidly growing transmission rate. This is not just a England thing its been noted across Europe. I was a funeral on Thursday and was chatting to a couple of my g/f's cousins both from the same home. One is 20 and at uni so has been at home for months now. The other is 18 and in the army and was sent home when it all kicked off. They were basically telling me how their house had been party central for 5 months. I don't blame them I'd be doing the same.

There is a difference between blame and recognising a situation cannot continue.

Those young people living in house shares - because they have no other option other than staying at home with parents, if their parents can even afford to have them there - can't be left to hold the blame and to endure more and more limits on their behaviour, at the same time that they are being directed to go to work and to socialise and to spend their money.

There is so much that came before this - zero hour contracts, the reduction in social housing provision - and the subsequent rise of buy to let LL's and massively inflated rents - benefits sanctions, benefits never being set at a rate that allows anyone to live safely, let alone comfortably, student loans, under-funding (debts due!) of the NHS, schools, social services, local authorities having budgets stripped etc etc

How about dealing with what was the existing 'situation that cannot continue', in order to address the current one?
Priortise that over spunking £100 billion up the wall?

It was really interesting what was seen to first, prior to lockdown, even by this shitshow - the basis on which they quickly built the structure to keep people in.

Housing was found almost immediately for registered homeless, evictions paused, an increase in benefits of £20 a week (did we not need that before?), the furlough scheme (not to be extended, in case it makes us lazy, lol).

Ftr, I know shitloads - so many - young people who've been very dilligent and very careful.

I think you have to be really mindful of who is more likely to have been exposed, encouraged out, when we can't have much data around the relaxing of the rules in very recent weeks - and be careful where you find 'significant factors' within that - that's stood from the start.

 

[elbows]

I mean small things that end up with very large implications is a feature of this pandemic. In just the same way that people got a pandemic lesson in exponential growth and how small numbers can become very large numbers. Apply these lessons learnt wherever you can, and less pandemic mistakes will be made.

 

[frogwoman]

Gotta say I am pretty supportive of minimising the spread of the virus by staying at home but I am really starting to struggle especially with the Jewish holidays coming up and not really being able to take part in person

I don't think all the mitigation measures were pointless, I think that the lockdowns were a bit of a blunt instrument and especially in places like India caused a lot of possibly unnecessary suffering and hardship tho. However I think if everyone had carried on 'as normal' we would be looking at millions dead by now and people would have stayed at home with most or all of the attendant economic and social chaos .

 

[frogwoman]

Those young people living in house shares - because they have no other option other than staying at home with parents, if their parents can even afford to have them there - can't be left to hold the blame and to endure more and more limits on their behaviour, at the same time that they are being directed to go to work and to socialise and to spend their money.

There is so much that came before this - zero hour contracts, the reduction in social housing provision - and the subsequent rise of buy to let LL's and massively inflated rents - benefits sanctions, benefits never being set at a rate that allows anyone to live safely, let alone comfortably, student loans, under-funding (debts due!) of the NHS, schools, social services, local authorities having budgets stripped etc etc

How about dealing with what was the existing 'situation that cannot continue', in order to address the current one?
Priortise that over spunking £100 billion up the wall?

It was really interesting what was seen to first, prior to lockdown, even by this shitshow - the basis on which they quickly built the structure to keep people in.

Housing was found almost immediately for registered homeless, evictions paused, an increase in benefits of £20 a week (did we not need that before?), the furlough scheme (not to be extended, in case it makes us lazy, lol).

Ftr, I know shitloads - so many - young people who've been very dilligent and very careful.

I think you have to be really mindful of who is more likely to have been exposed, encouraged out, when we can't have much data around the relaxing of the rules in very recent weeks - and be careful where you find 'significant factors' within that - that's stood from the start.

100% .

 

[sheothebudworths]

Gotta say I am pretty supportive of minimising the spread of the virus by staying at home but I am really starting to struggle especially with the Jewish holidays coming up and not really being able to take part in person

I don't think all the mitigation measures were pointless, I think that the lockdowns were a bit of a blunt instrument and especially in places like India caused a lot of possibly unnecessary suffering and hardship tho. However I think if everyone had carried on 'as normal' we would be looking at millions dead by now and people would have stayed at home with most or all of the attendant economic and social chaos .

I am, too, froggy - and I don't think ANY measures in dealing with it are pointless either.
From my own pov it's just 'what comes next' that is always important, that set against what went before, learning from it all and then dealing with it.
I'm frustrated that the last bit doesn't seem to be happening effectively, largely because I have no/continually diminishing confidence or trust in a gov I never trusted anyway blah blah blah.

Will there be another way you can be a part of the holiday celebrations?
I think it's important that you get to do some positive stuff for yourself and you CAN get out and do the groups of six, without feeling fraught. X

 

[zahir]

Why Greater Manchester could now be the canary down the Covid mine

As infection rates rocket further and the testing system melts down, ‘powerless’ local leaders worry Whitehall isn’t listening

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

If the week began with concern within the Greater Manchester system about Covid rates here, that concern is turning into genuine alarm in many quarters, now expressed in expletives.

Cases have continued to rocket since Monday. Bolton’s infection rate is now six times the national average, at 179 cases per 100,000 people. The borough has a positivity rate of around 10pc, according to today’s latest statistics, three times the level ministers generally feel comfortable with.

Tameside’s numbers have doubled in seven days, now also creeping towards a rate of 100, as have those in Bury and Stockport; the same seven boroughs are all still in the red and the other three appear to be on their way.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The turning of the first wave shows we very much can control it with compliance to mitigating measures. One of the great descriptions from Van Tam:

'It is like having a spring in a box and you have got the lid on. Now you can take the lid off a little but you haven't disconnected the spring or broken the spring in any way.

'If you take the lid right off the spring is still under tension and off it will go again.'

Did it? Sweden had fewer deaths in its first wave and now has lower rates than the UK with nothing like the measures we had. Not that they didn't have measures. They did. But many aspects of the first lockdown will have been essentially irrelevant. Not meeting in parks, for instance. And a fair bit of what is being done now is going to be pretty irrelevant too.