Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[SpookyFrank]

Those young people living in house shares - because they have no other option other than staying at home with parents, if their parents can even afford to have them there - can't be left to hold the blame and to endure more and more limits on their behaviour, at the same time that they are being directed to go to work and to socialise and to spend their money.

There is so much that came before this - zero hour contracts, the reduction in social housing provision - and the subsequent rise of buy to let LL's and massively inflated rents - benefits sanctions, benefits never being set at a rate that allows anyone to live safely, let alone comfortably, student loans, under-funding (debts due!) of the NHS, schools, social services, local authorities having budgets stripped etc etc

How about dealing with what was the existing 'situation that cannot continue', in order to address the current one?
Priortise that over spunking £100 billion up the wall?

It was really interesting what was seen to first, prior to lockdown, even by this shitshow - the basis on which they quickly built the structure to keep people in.

Housing was found almost immediately for registered homeless, evictions paused, an increase in benefits of £20 a week (did we not need that before?), the furlough scheme (not to be extended, in case it makes us lazy, lol).

Ftr, I know shitloads - so many - young people who've been very dilligent and very careful.

I think you have to be really mindful of who is more likely to have been exposed, encouraged out, when we can't have much data around the relaxing of the rules in very recent weeks - and be careful where you find 'significant factors' within that - that's stood from the start.

What's getting me through the days right now is the thought that this current pandemic is somehow the beginning of the end for the neoliberal economy. And while it's obvious any such upheaval will come at a grisly price it seems to me that the only alternative is to pay an even higher price a few years down the line when we get to the next crisis, when there'll be even less social fabric left that the demagogues and carpetbaggers haven't stripped away.

 

[Supine]

Did it? Sweden had fewer deaths in its first wave and now has lower rates than the UK with nothing like the measures we had. Not that they didn't have measures. They did. But many aspects of the first lockdown will have been essentially irrelevant. Not meeting in parks, for instance. And a fair bit of what is being done now is going to be pretty irrelevant too.

I didn't say all the measures were perfect and I agree the outdoor stuff seems to be less risky. It'll take time to work out exactly what works well and what isn't necessary.

It didn't help that the press were going out of their way to take photos to make outdoor scenes seem busier than they were using camera angles. I don't think any of those senarios resulted in big spread events which is good.

I'm entering winter with a bit of trepidation as we don't know how spread will pan out with the population indoors and also suffering from corona fatigue.

 

[Cloo]

I didn't say all the measures were perfect and I agree the outdoor stuff seems to be less risky. It'll take time to work out exactly what works well and what isn't necessary.

It didn't help that the press were going out of their way to take photos to make outdoor scenes seem busier than they were using camera angles. I don't think any of those senarios resulted in big spread events which is good.

I'm entering winter with a bit of trepidation as we don't know how spread will pan out with the population indoors and also suffering from corona fatigue.

As I think i've mentioned, I don't think we'll see a national total ban on meeting other people again though it is happening and will happen locally, but for shorter periods. The one thing this government did right, more because it didn't have the resources to police it than anything else I expect, is not having a total 'stay indoors' lockdown like Italy, because as far as I've heard there's no evidence this did anything to significantly stop the spread, nor has it prevented resurgence.

I am worried about winter , it's so hard to tell what it'll be like. As I've said on another thread, my siblings and I are encouraging our parents to stay in their place in Slovakia where they are now over winter - it's much safer there and they'd get better and more prompt medical attention if they needed it. It means not seeing them, but I would be cautious of it over winter anyway, so it's kind of better for it simply not to be a possibility.

I'm thankful that summer proved OK - I mean, it could have turned out that they whole thing just popped right up the moment you loosened lockdown and we'd have been shut in all summer as well, waiting for an even worse winter. So we've had our respite, but now it's the long, dark teatime of the soul. Just how long and how dark remains to be seen.

 

[frogwoman]

I am, too, froggy - and I don't think ANY measures in dealing with it are pointless either.
From my own pov it's just 'what comes next' that is always important, that set against what went before, learning from it all and then dealing with it.
I'm frustrated that the last bit doesn't seem to be happening effectively, largely because I have no/continually diminishing confidence or trust in a gov I never trusted anyway blah blah blah.

Will there be another way you can be a part of the holiday celebrations?
I think it's important that you get to do some positive stuff for yourself and you CAN get out and do the groups of six, without feeling fraught. X

I'm thinking of spending a few nights in a b and b near the synagogue in a few weeks(once I get confirmation that I can go).

I actually didn't mind the lockdown in a weird way but I'm finding this part really stressful because it seems like it's never going to end, I don't know what is safe to do or too excessively cautious or reckless. So much stuff that during the first lockdown I was doing by zoom is no longer going on or is going on much less and I'm still spending huge amounts of time online and reading stuff that makes me really angry at covid truthers, Boris, the government, etc. I saw a mate last weekend and have seen I few friends this summer but I've been quite anxious about socialising, not just because of covid but also because I haven't done much of it in so long and I'm quite socially awkward anyway.

 

[frogwoman]

.

 

[elbows]

Did it? Sweden had fewer deaths in its first wave and now has lower rates than the UK with nothing like the measures we had. Not that they didn't have measures. They did. But many aspects of the first lockdown will have been essentially irrelevant. Not meeting in parks, for instance. And a fair bit of what is being done now is going to be pretty irrelevant too.

When considering what epidemic outcomes I would expect in different countries, my opinion would be based on factors such as:

What changes to behaviour and human mixing patterns happened and when. With the when being relative not to a calendar, but to the phase of epidemic reached at the time that behavioural changes began in earnest.

What all the underlying risk factors were like in that country in the first place.

And we still dont have good answers to all of that. It might be possible to figure out how good the timing of their measures was compared to ours, I'm not sure, I will try this exercise at some point. So I do not think Sweden offers proof that our lockdown was excessive or didnt make enough difference. It might just be another indicator of how far measures have to go if the risks in your country for many bad outcomes from this virus are high to start with (eg pollution, poverty, multi-generational households, mixing patterns, obesity, or whatever the risks may actually turn out to be) and if your initial response and timing are especially poor.

Perhaps if I knew exactly which measures you did think were necessary, rather than mostly hearing about all the ones you didnt see the point of, it will turn out that my position is not quite as far removed from yours as would usually seem to be the case. I suppose its not that hard to figure out broadly what youd like to believe would have been enough to deal with this pandemic, but sometimes I feel like you maybe want to have your cake and eat it. But I know you do pay attention to what is actually happening even if it includes data you were hoping never to see again, eg I noted some time ago that you had noticed what was happening in the Madrid region. And I presumed you knew what this might imply in terms of investing hope and expectations in 'no second wave for immunological or other not well understood reasons' theories. Silly me for thinking this might lead to a greater acceptance of measures that do actually do something but are simply not to your taste.

Having said that, its true there are probably a few things I suppose I consider not to have been strictly necessary during the first lockdown. I dont know as they were very avoidable though, as they were mostly there because when you have to slam the brakes on so hard and fast as this country did due to it being so far behind the curve of judging and responding to the first wave, there isnt much room for nuance. In some areas you actually need to overcompensate for failure to control rates earlier, in other areas it might simply be down to the practicalities of policing, public health messages etc. We've seen how much of a mess they got in after the most draconian phase, all the complex rules and mixed messages during the relaxing phase. I dont think I would have liked to see them mucking around with those nuances and muddling the message back when we were heading for doom on all the charts. Stay home was simple, and even at its simplest the reality wasnt that simple for everyone.

 

[Plumdaff]

I think Sweden shouldn't be compared to us for all sorts of reasons, not least, as a good Finnish friend told me recently, you don't really have to tell Scandis to socially distance. And Sweden has done quite badly compared to its neighbours that are a much better comparative fit.

 

[Roadkill]

I'm doing that study. These are the voucher options you get (spoilered coz loads of screenshots). Don't know anything about IQVIA.

Spoiler: Vouchers

They have at least started contacting you to book appointments in advance now. At first (ime at least) they were just phoning weekdays late morning - midday and asking if they could come round some time that afternoon which made it pretty difficult for people who were actually going outside for work etc to ever get tested

Thanks. How predictable that this is being used as a disguised subsidy to rubbish like Amazon.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I think Sweden shouldn't be compared to us for all sorts of reasons, not least, as a good Finnish friend told me recently, you don't really have to tell Scandis to socially distance. And Sweden has done quite badly compared to its neighbours that are a much better comparative fit.

International comparisons can be difficult, but I tend to agree that Sweden's success, or not, could be better judged by comparing them to their neighbours.

Deaths per million population -

Sweden - 578
Denmark - 109
Finland - 61
Norway - 49

 

[elbows]

Normally I might be tempted to pick at this document about SAGE views on mass testing in the nerdy thread, but since the Guardian already wrote a story about it I suppose I can just link to that and the SAGE paper here instead.

Less than 20% of people in England self-isolate fully, Sage says

Scientists suggest ‘moonshot’ mass testing will be of little use unless isolation numbers rise

www.theguardian.com

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/914931/s0712-tfms-consensus-statement-sage.pdf

 

[2hats]

International comparisons can be difficult, but I tend to agree that Sweden's success, or not, could be better judged by comparing them to their neighbours.

Deaths per million population -

Sweden - 578
Denmark - 109
Finland - 61
Norway - 49

That comparison looks even less favourable for Sweden when one factors area/population density in. Only Denmark appears to struggle and that is a country around one tenth the size of its nearest Nordic neighbours with a much higher population density.

 

[teuchter]

I spent some time with close family last week, for the first time since January. Started out being consciously careful about distancing, and so on. By the second day I realised I'd stopped thinking about Covid and was starting to act just as I would normally. This happens so easily when you're in familiar situations with familiar people. I can completely see how transmission in the home can easily be a big factor. And of course it's much more likely that possibly-infected and probably-vulnerable people will be mixing. It does seem to me that limiting private social gatherings is something that has to be done. Unfortunately.

 

[Steel Icarus]

I spent some time with close family last week, for the first time since January. Started out being consciously careful about distancing, and so on. By the second day I realised I'd stopped thinking about Covid and was starting to act just as I would normally. This happens so easily when you're in familiar situations with familiar people. I can completely see how transmission in the home can easily be a big factor. And of course it's much more likely that possibly-infected and probably-vulnerable people will be mixing. It does seem to me that limiting private social gatherings is something that has to be done. Unfortunately.

It is easy, I agree. I'm being very careful around those don't know but caused a colleague to back up the other day as we were deep in conversation and I just forgot.

 

[elbows]

That comparison looks even less favourable for Sweden when one factors area/population density in. Only Denmark appears to struggle and that is a country around one tenth the size of its nearest Nordic neighbours with a much higher population density.

Studies so far also indicate that Sweden failed to get anywhere close to its herd immunity goals. Part of the reason I went on about looking at measures & timing together, rather than just weaker vs stronger measures, is that the study also suggested that Stockholm ended up with similar antibody seroprevalence levels to London ( SAGE Journals: Your gateway to world-class research journals ). Both nations are an example of pandemic failure and you'd have to be desperate to try to make a case by holding one of them up as a success or as proof that either slow or weak responses were appropriate in this pandemic. Once the appropriate amount of time has passed for us to really judge all the details of various specific measures and behavioural changes, ie pick the small nuggets of things these countries did right out of the huge steaming pile of shit failure, maybe I can tell a slightly different story. I cant do that now, I need at least one winter.

 

[elbows]

Also it would not be sufficient just to convince me that Swedish 'folkvett' could generate an appropriate pandemic response on its own, I would also need to be convinced that 'folkvett' was possible to muster and sustain in the UK at short notice and with the poisonous press that we have.

Anyway as stronger measures come to be reimposed in the UK in the months ahead, I expect the draconian elements to remain but in different form. Probably in forms that make the draconian aspect even more overtly obvious and objectionable to some. I doubt all the nuances we will get this time round will be the sort of gentle, liberal stuff that is to some peoples taste. They've had more time to plan policing specifics for a start. And they probably expect less voluntary compliance in various areas as I expect they will have judged that there is much lockdown fatigue and breakdown of sense of 'we are all in this together' that they were somewhat relying on and trying to foster for the first lockdown. That and the removal of certain 'carrots' is likely to see them reaching for the stick more instead.

 

[MrSki]

The testing system seems to be wobbling to say the least.

 

[frogwoman]

The testing system seems to be wobbling to say the least.

Why are they limiting tests when it has capacity for 500? Is there a shortage of tests or something? If so they need to be honest about it.

 

[MrSki]

Why are they limiting tests when it has capacity for 500? Is there a shortage of tests or something? If so they need to be honest about it.

There is a backlog in lab processing.

 

[elbows]

And I think I quoted Hancock recently saying there was 'a problem with a couple of contracts'.

 

[Plumdaff]

Why are they limiting tests when it has capacity for 500? Is there a shortage of tests or something? If so they need to be honest about it.

Apparently it's lab capacity. So in the Rhondda ambulance staff are doing tests and the local health board labs are processing because Deloitte packed up after 60 tests. Won't work on Monday when the ambulance and lab staff have other things to do.

 

[existentialist]

And I think I quoted Hancock recently saying there was 'a problem with a couple of contracts'.

Who knew?

 

[andysays]

And I think I quoted Hancock recently saying there was 'a problem with a couple of contracts'.

Someone should take a 'contract' out on Hancock

 

[zahir]

Who could possibly have predicted this?

According to some scientists, staffing shortages are now a problem at the Lighthouse Labs, which they say have relied on PhD and post-doctorate students to help process samples. With universities reopening this month, students are leaving the labs to complete their studies, just when demand for tests intensifies.

Allan Wilson, president of the Institute of Biomedical Science, which represents NHS lab workers, said the Lighthouse model was “never really a permanent solution” and many students who staffed the centers were “not surprisingly returning to their normal life.”

Johnson Pledges Millions of Covid Tests But U.K. Labs Can’t Cope

Britain’s battle with coronavirus is at a critical moment, with virus testing in trouble again as winter looms.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[chilango]

Who could possibly have predicted this?

Johnson Pledges Millions of Covid Tests But U.K. Labs Can’t Cope

Britain’s battle with coronavirus is at a critical moment, with virus testing in trouble again as winter looms.

www.bloomberg.com

It's alright. Give it a couple of weeks and all those postgrads will be available again....

 

[two sheds]

Don't need postgrads not like it's complicated - just need an expansion of the old YTS scheme

 

[Mation]

Rushanara Ali following up on Bojo The Clown's invitation at PMQs to write to him with her questions on exactly how and why the Government has been hurling vast sums of public money down a greedy and incompetent drain.

 

[miss direct]

Sheffield, where I am, is now on "the watchlist". What usually happens when somewhere is on a watchlist? I just want to be aware and prepared. I'm new here and have only been back in the UK for a few months so have been trying to set myself up and start a new life - applied for lots of jobs and trying to join events etc.

 

[belboid]

Sheffield, where I am, is now on "the watchlist". What usually happens when somewhere is on a watchlist? I just want to be aware and prepared. I'm new here and have only been back in the UK for a few months so have been trying to set myself up and start a new life - applied for lots of jobs and trying to join events etc.

If it goes 'on the list' it will probably be on a ward/post code basis, rather than the entire city. Worst hit at the moment are Sharrow, Highfields & Lowfields, Park Hill & Wybourn and Fir Vale. Then it will be no household mixing at all, only your support bubble can be in contact.

 

[LDC]

If it goes 'on the list' it will probably be on a ward/post code basis, rather than the entire city. Worst hit at the moment are Sharrow, Highfields & Lowfields, Park Hill & Wybourn and Fir Vale. Then it will be no household mixing at all, only your support bubble can be in contact.

Really? I though restrictions have generally been city wide plus, rather than ward or postcode based? In Birmingham it's the whole city plus some areas.

I'm in Leeds, I'm 100% sure we'll have stricter rules and restrictions soon as well.

 

[MrSki]

Deleted alarmist information on the advice of prunus